Sugar Industry - As of February 15, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 63.4728 million tons, a decrease of 4.4602 million tons or 6.57% compared to the same period last year [5] - The sugar content in sugarcane was 12.53%, an increase of 0.16% from 12.37% last year [5] - The sugar production rate was 10.77%, up by 0.197% from 10.573% last year, with total sugar production at 6.8356 million tons, down by 346,700 tons or 4.83% year-on-year [5] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,290 to 5,400 CNY/ton, while in Yunnan, prices are between 5,120 and 5,180 CNY/ton, with processing plants quoting between 5,580 and 5,800 CNY/ton, showing stability [5] - The raw sugar market is supported by U.S. tariff issues, leading to strong futures prices, but future price increases may be limited due to expected high production levels in the Northern Hemisphere and Brazil [5] - Domestic sugar factories are in a peak inventory accumulation period during the off-season for consumption, leading to a lack of market drivers and a forecast of continued fluctuations [5] Cotton Industry - On Tuesday, ICE cotton rose by 0.55%, closing at 65.5 cents per pound, while the main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 3.8% to 15,285 CNY/ton, with open interest rising by 92,446 contracts to 759,400 contracts [6] - The cotton price index for 3128B was 16,205 CNY/ton, up by 415 CNY/ton from the previous day [6] - The increase in Zheng cotton prices is driven by several factors, including a more than 2% rise in ICE cotton prices during the domestic spring holiday, and USDA's February agricultural outlook indicating a year-on-year decline in cotton stock-to-use ratios for 2026/27 in major producing countries [6] - Domestic planting area reductions and expectations for target price policy adjustments are becoming clearer as new cotton planting is expected to begin in about a month [6] - Overall, the correlation between domestic and international cotton prices may strengthen, with limited short-term single-direction trends but potential upward space for prices in the medium to long term [6]

Sugar Market - The current spot price range for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5310 to 5410 CNY/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's new sugar is priced between 5140 and 5240 CNY/ton. The main processing sugar factory prices range from 5750 to 5900 CNY/ton, with prices remaining stable across the board [2][7] - In the raw sugar market, prices fell by over 2% last night, returning to a fluctuating range, with the northern hemisphere's crushing pace expected to dominate the market in the future [2][7] - Domestic spot transactions are sluggish, but there is still some purchasing demand before the Spring Festival, which may support future prices. However, due to the increase in production, the market remains cautious, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [2][7] Cotton Market - On Tuesday, ICE cotton prices decreased by 0.08%, closing at 64.3 cents per pound, while the main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 0.52%, closing at 14560 CNY/ton. The main contract's open interest rose by 7966 contracts to 876600 contracts, and the cotton 3128B spot price index increased by 40 CNY/ton to 15280 CNY/ton [3][7] - The international market shows limited driving factors, with both macroeconomic and fundamental aspects lacking significant disturbances, leading to low-level fluctuations in U.S. cotton prices [3][7] - The domestic market for Zheng cotton shows an increase in open interest, with prices at a high level causing some market divergence. The current market trend is primarily driven by expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area for the new year, which is now largely confirmed, although official details are still pending [3][7] - Looking ahead, there are expectations for policy changes, particularly regarding the cotton target price subsidy policy, which has been stable at 18600 CNY/ton for a long time. The market anticipates adjustments to the new year's target price [3][7] - In summary, short-term adjustments in Zheng cotton prices may occur, but there is support at the bottom. Key future points of focus include whether downstream textile companies will have new replenishment needs before the Spring Festival and whether there will be macroeconomic easing measures in the first quarter of next year, along with the announcement of new cotton target price subsidy policy details around April 10 [3][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, affected by upcoming large - scale new cotton listings and supply pressure. The short - term decline space of ICE cotton is limited, and attention should be paid to ginneries' purchase intentions and opening prices [2]. - Sugar is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the near future, but the supply pressure is not fully released. The domestic sugar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, and the future influencing factors include Inner Mongolia's sugar pressing progress and Guangxi's pre - sales situation. A weak view on sugar futures prices is maintained, and attention should be paid to the performance of raw sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views Cotton - On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 66.61 cents/pound, CF601 decreased 0.7% to 13,540 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions increased by 10,524 lots to 532,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. After the Fed's September FOMC meeting, the overall drive has slowed, with the focus on the macro - level. The US dollar index is weak, and US cotton prices are strong. The number of net short positions of non - commercial positions in the latest week of CFTC has decreased significantly, limiting the short - term sharp decline of US cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak trend due to upcoming new cotton listings and supply pressure, and downstream demand has limited short - term digestion capacity [2]. Sugar - In September, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks were 2.4079 million tons, a decrease of 301,300 tons (11.12%) compared to the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 160,500 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and some processing sugar factories' quotes decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Raw sugar rebounded above 16 cents/pound, but the supply pressure remains, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed. The domestic spot market sentiment is pessimistic, with sufficient short - term supply and fragile market sentiment. The futures market is led by raw sugar [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Cotton - The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 20, down 15; the main basis is 1,593, down 21. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,070 yuan/ton, down 76, and the national average is 15,133 yuan/ton, down 91 [3]. Sugar - The 1 - 5 contract spread is 26, up 7; the main basis is 411, down 2. The spot price in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20, and in Liuzhou is 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 [3]. 3. Market Information - On September 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,915, down 181 from the previous trading day, with 12 valid forecasts. - On September 23, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,070 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,112 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,151 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,230 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. - On September 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1 (unchanged), the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 25.9 (down 0.1), the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 52.8 (unchanged), and the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 29 (unchanged). - On September 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - On September 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 10,022, down 293 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] 4. Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the honor of senior analyst of textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22]