Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that European and American capital have become the primary drivers behind the recent surge in gold prices, with a notable increase in gold purchases by these investors aligning with global central bank trends [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - As of September 23, COMEX gold futures reached a historical high of $3,824.6 per ounce [2]. - Since August 20, gold price growth rates during different trading sessions were 1.3% in Asia, 1.8% in Europe, and 7.7% in the U.S., indicating that the majority of the price increase was driven by U.S. and European trading [3]. - From August to mid-September, U.S. and European investors increased their gold ETF holdings by 37.1 tons and 20.8 tons, respectively, while Asian investors reduced their holdings by 4.8 tons [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Major U.S. investment firms are speculating that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts could lead to a significant rise in gold prices, with predictions suggesting gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [6]. - Investment strategies have shifted, with a notable increase in net purchases of COMEX gold options, particularly those with strike prices between $3,900 and $4,000 [7]. - Wealthy family offices in the U.S. are increasing their gold allocations from 15% to 20%-25%, further driving demand for gold investments [7]. Group 3: Divergence in Capital Behavior - In contrast to the bullish sentiment from Western investors, Asian capital appears to be retreating, with the total long-short ratio of Shanghai gold futures dropping from a yearly high of 3.58 to 2.67 [10]. - Factors contributing to this trend include strong performance in the A-share market and a 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD since June, which has reduced domestic demand for gold [11]. - Domestic gold industry players are increasing hedging operations, leading to a rise in short positions in the futures market, which has dampened the bullish momentum [12]. Group 4: Market Monitoring - U.S. investment institutions are closely monitoring Asian capital's activity in the gold market, particularly looking at monthly net purchases of gold ETFs and sales data for gold jewelry [12]. - If Asian capital re-enters the gold market, it could provide further support for U.S. investors to push gold prices higher towards the $4,000 mark [12]. Group 5: Speculative Activity - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, there was a divergence in capital behavior, with hedge funds reducing their net long positions while speculative capital increased its long positions significantly [13].

在8月以来的这波黄金价格迭创新高行情里，欧美资本成为最重要的幕后推手。 申万宏源证券分析师赵伟指出，按交易时段拆解分析，8月20日以来，亚太交易盘、欧洲交易盘、美国 交易盘时段的金价累计增长率分别为1.3%、1.8%和7.7%，显示黄金涨幅主要由欧美交易盘贡献；按黄 金ETF的资金进出额分析，8月以来，美国与欧洲投资者增持黄金ETF所对应的黄金增加量分别达到37.1 吨与20.8吨，期间亚洲投资者却减持4.8吨。 记者注意到，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的COMEX黄金期货期权持仓报告，以及国内黄金期 货多空比数据，也印证欧美投资者是这轮黄金上涨行情的关键推手。 CFTC数据显示，8月16日—9月16日当周期间，以华尔街对冲基金为主的资产管理机构持有的COMEX 黄金期货期权净多头头寸（看涨金价头寸）从1417.58万盎司增加至1604.89万盎司，成为推动COMEX 黄金期货价格迭创新高的最大资本力量。 作者：陈植 9月23日晚，COMEX黄金期货主力合约报价盘中再创历史高点3824.6美元/盎司。 在欧美资本持续推动金价迭创新高之际，亚太地区资本似乎选择"提前收工"。 东方财富网数据显示，8月21日 ...

Core Viewpoint - After reaching a historical high on April 22, international gold prices have experienced a significant decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping to $3,327.60 per ounce, down over $180 from the previous high of $3,509.90 per ounce [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hedge funds have been identified as the primary force driving the recent pullback in gold prices, with a reduction of 1.1196 million ounces in net long positions during the week of April 22, marking the largest cut among asset management institutions [3]. - The selling pressure from hedge funds has intensified since mid-April, as they have adopted a "habitual" trading strategy of selling high and buying low to capture short-term gains [3]. - Despite the recent decline, institutional long-term bullish sentiment towards gold remains unchanged, with a reported inflow of $3.3 billion into the gold market [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent changes in market sentiment, influenced by reduced uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve chairperson and signals from the U.S. government to ease trade tensions, have contributed to a decline in risk aversion, further pressuring gold prices [3]. - Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to play a crucial role in supporting gold prices, with accelerated inflows driven by global trade environment changes and increased economic uncertainty, alongside a year-to-date price increase of over 25% [4].