资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 A股领涨全球权益，股债负相关性达高位 ——大类资产周报（20250818-20250822） 分析师：朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱：zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 2025年8月25日 分析师：汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱：tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 联系人：黄雯瑜 邮箱：huangwenyu@gyzq.com.cn 摘要 一、本周大类资产交易主线 本周宏观增长因子继续向上，通胀高频因子反弹态势减弱，价格压力仍然较高。A股领涨全球（上证+3.49%、创业板+5.85%）， 科技成长主导，50ETF隐含波动率（IV）上升至19.78%，美股分化，道指创新高（+1.53%）而纳指回调（-0.58%），鲍威尔降息 预期提振风险偏好，国内债市调整显著（30年期国债期货跌1.43%），股债负相关性达历史高位，"跷跷板效应"凸显，外盘商品 强势（布油+2.14%、COMEX黄金+1.02%）受地缘风险与通胀对冲驱动，内盘商品普跌（南华商品指数-0.44%）；美元趋弱（美 元指 ...

Group 1 - The importance of gold has been highlighted due to increasing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation uncertainty, and adjustments in central bank strategies, making it a key strategic choice for asset diversification [1] - The world is gradually dividing into competing economic entities, and gold is re-establishing its position as a preferred neutral asset, trusted across nations and unaffected by sovereign risks [1] - Historical demand drivers for gold include its lack of credit risk, high liquidity, and physical characteristics, making it a reliable asset during market pressures [2] Group 2 - Gold's supply is relatively inelastic, with new production taking 7 to 20 years to develop, which enhances its scarcity premium during periods of rising demand [2] - Empirical data shows that gold often appreciates or at least maintains its value during macroeconomic shocks, serving as an effective hedge against tail risks and systemic events [2] - As of mid-2023, expectations of a pause in central bank interest rate hikes have led to a noticeable increase in gold prices, driven by high inflation and central bank reserve accumulation [2] Group 3 - Gold prices tend to exhibit strong upward trends during financial shocks, often maintaining high levels even after market conditions stabilize [5] - Historical data indicates significant cumulative returns for gold during inflationary periods, with peak returns reaching as high as 302% during the 1972-1976 inflation surge [6][7] - The current cycle (2020-2025) has seen gold prices rise approximately 90% from baseline levels, reinforcing its role as a tactical hedge asset [7] Group 4 - Economic policy uncertainty has a clear relationship with gold prices, as rising uncertainty typically leads to increased gold prices, reflecting its role as a safe-haven asset [8] - Retail demand for gold is significantly influenced by cultural factors, particularly in India and China, which together account for over 60% of global jewelry demand [13] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases since late 2021, driven by concerns over asset seizure and geopolitical conflicts, indicating a shift in reserve management strategies [14][15] Group 5 - The increase in gold reserves among central banks reflects a broader strategy to diversify reserves and enhance balance sheet resilience in a fragmented geopolitical landscape [18] - Gold's share in central bank balance sheets has risen from approximately 9% at the end of 2020 to 13.5% by 2024, indicating its growing importance as a reserve asset [18] - Notably, China and India have significantly increased their gold reserves by 17% and 38% respectively, while European central banks have maintained stable reserves [21][23] Group 6 - The technology sector is also driving gold demand, with a 7% increase in gold usage in North America and Asia due to growth in AI and semiconductor manufacturing [25] - Gold's strategic value as an industrial raw material is being recognized, particularly in the context of automation and AI investments in aging economies [25] - Traditional investment flows and central bank accumulation highlight gold's strategic appeal during systemic pressure periods, especially amid rising tariffs and conflicts [26] Group 7 - Gold maintains low correlation with other major asset classes, providing significant diversification benefits in multi-asset portfolios, particularly during periods of simultaneous downturns in traditional assets [29][30] - The 60/20/20 portfolio strategy, which includes 20% allocation to gold, has outperformed the traditional 60/40 portfolio, especially during market downturns [36][39] - Gold's role as a dynamic strategic tool in multi-asset investment environments is increasingly recognized, enhancing risk-adjusted returns amid macroeconomic uncertainty [40][42]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street analysts are optimistic about oil and gas stocks due to low valuations and strong support from Trump for the struggling energy sector, with a significant portion of energy stocks receiving "buy" ratings [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - Approximately 75% of energy sector stocks in the S&P 500 have received "buy" recommendations, compared to about 50% for the overall market [1]. - Analysts expect energy stocks to rise by about 16% over the next 12 months, second only to the healthcare sector, and this growth is projected to be twice that of the overall index [1]. - Despite being one of the three declining sectors in the S&P 500 this year, energy stocks are considered to have potential for upward movement due to their low price-to-earnings ratios [1][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Challenges - The energy sector is projected to achieve the highest profit growth by 2026, according to Bloomberg Intelligence [4]. - Concerns exist regarding the impact of Trump's trade war and OPEC+ actions, which have contributed to a 7% decline in U.S. crude oil prices this year [4]. - Analysts predict a 30% decline in earnings for U.S. energy producers in Q2 compared to the first three months of the year, with cash flow expected to decrease by 15% due to weaker oil prices [4]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Energy stocks have historically provided protection for investors during periods of rising inflation, as seen in 2022 when the energy sector was the best-performing sector amid soaring consumer prices [5]. - Trump's spending bill has removed subsidies for renewable energy, benefiting oil and gas producers, although this has not yet led to a significant increase in energy stock prices [7]. - Analysts may be awaiting further actions from the White House, as Trump is perceived as a supporter of U.S. energy producers [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. The increase in tariffs by Trump has raised corporate costs, and if the tariff scope expands or negotiations fail, it will accelerate inflation and strengthen the inflation - hedging property of gold. Although the market focuses on the September interest rate cut expectation, the core inflation has not continuously heated up, and the real interest rate is difficult to decline, so the gold price may be trapped in a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, the transmission of tariffs to the end - user will increase inflation stickiness, and the recovery of easing expectations will be beneficial to the gold price. The expansion of the US fiscal and trade double deficits and the protracted frictions will weaken the US dollar's credit and support the central bank's gold - buying demand. It is recommended to buy gold on dips and be cautious about the correction risk of silver [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4.68; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9271 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 2. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 211,239 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 8952; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 467,534 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,142. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 147,538 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4931; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 135,033 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8235. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kg, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,204,466 kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 6610 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 775.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4; the spot price of silver is 9200 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 31. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 6 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.68; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 71 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 33 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 948.5 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.29; the silver ETF holdings are 14,694.95 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 124.34. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 202,968 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 988; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 58,521 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 4879. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, with a decrease of 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.83; the global total annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, with a decrease of 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.21%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.28 [2] 3.5 Industry News - An informed source said that US Treasury Secretary Bessent privately advised President Trump not to try to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Bessent believes that apart from the overall economic factors, Fed officials have signaled that they may cut interest rates twice by the end of the year. The US House of Representatives passed the 2026 fiscal year defense appropriation bill with 221 votes in favor and 209 against, with a total amount of about $832 billion. President Trump posted on social media that three Iranian nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed". US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who is visiting Japan, said that the two countries could reach a "good" trade agreement, but hinted that the process might take more time. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 39.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 58%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the US June PPI recorded a month-on-month change of 0%, which is below the market expectation of 0.2%, providing support for silver prices [1][2] - The year-on-year PPI for June was reported at 2.3%, also lower than the expected 2.5%, indicating some inflationary pressure remains despite the stable month-on-month figures [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book revealed that tariffs are causing cost pressures for businesses, leading to price increases, which could support silver as a hedge against inflation [2] Group 2 - The silver T+D price closed at 9115 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.16%, and the trading range for the day was between 9050 and 9147 yuan per kilogram [1][3] - The technical analysis suggests that silver T+D is expected to continue its upward trend after a period of consolidation, with resistance levels identified at 9200-9300 yuan and support levels at 8900-9000 yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by market reactions to U.S. President Trump's comments regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alongside economic indicators such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the overall monetary policy outlook [1][2][4][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced dramatic volatility, initially dropping to $3319.58 per ounce due to a strong dollar, before surging over $50 to reach a three-week high of $3377.17 following news of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell [1][2]. - Trump's subsequent denial of the dismissal plan led to a narrowing of gold's gains, closing at $3347.38, up 0.68% [2]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.25% to 98.34, influenced by Trump's comments, which alleviated concerns over the dollar's credibility [1]. - The U.S. bond market reacted similarly, with the 30-year Treasury yield peaking at 5.08% before settling at 5.014%, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.466% [1]. - The June PPI data showed no month-over-month increase, contrasting with a 0.3% rise in May, indicating subdued inflationary pressures that support gold prices [4]. - Year-over-year, the PPI increased by 2.3%, suggesting ongoing inflation concerns, particularly due to tariffs [4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a critical factor for gold prices, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts influenced by inflation forecasts and economic growth projections [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently oscillating within a key trading range of $3300 to $3360, indicating ongoing market contention [7]. - Short-term movements have seen gold test lower levels before rebounding, suggesting a potential for further volatility as traders await a breakout direction [7].

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is undergoing a transformation, prompting investors and policymakers to act cautiously amid uncertain policies and market volatility. Despite these challenges, major economies remain resilient, and central bank interest rate cuts are expected to create opportunities in global equities [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. real GDP growth is projected to slow from nearly 3% in 2023-2024 to 1.6% in 2025, primarily due to weakening private demand and the impact of tariffs on prices and consumer confidence [2]. - Average tariffs of approximately 15% are expected to cause economic losses and a temporary rise in inflation, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut interest rates three times in the latter half of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The rising geopolitical tensions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs and reduced commitments to European security, may lead to increased unity in Europe as countries seek new trade agreements and recognize the advantages of collective negotiation [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - Despite a bleak growth outlook, corporate performance is expected to remain strong, supporting a slightly aggressive asset allocation and inflation-hedging strategies. The focus will be on global equities, commodities, gold, and infrastructure investments for stable cash flows [4]. - The changing correlation between the dollar, stocks, and bonds highlights the importance of diversifying currency allocations [4]. Group 4: Bond Market Insights - Investors are likely to demand higher premiums on U.S. Treasuries due to unclear trade policies and rising public debt. The central bank's interest rate cuts will support short-term bonds, benefiting European and emerging market bonds [5]. Group 5: Stock Market Considerations - Stocks may record low single-digit returns in the latter half of the year, with industry selection becoming crucial. The attractiveness of the European market is expected to benefit small-cap stocks, with a focus on domestic-driven sectors to mitigate tariff risks [6]. Group 6: Emerging Markets Opportunities - Emerging market stocks are anticipated to gain traction in the latter half of 2025, with India and ASEAN becoming key beneficiaries of global supply chain shifts. The "Make in India" initiative is attracting multinational companies, particularly in defense and IT sectors [7]. Group 7: Alternative Investments - The challenging geopolitical environment is prompting investors to diversify into private and alternative assets, with private debt and infrastructure expected to remain attractive due to strong direct lending and fundraising [8].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has broken out of its previous trading range, reaching over $123,000, driven by favorable policies and significant capital inflows [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of policy support, including the upcoming stablecoin legislation and relaxed regulatory stances allowing banks to offer digital asset custody services [1] - A short squeeze has led to billions in liquidated short positions, contributing to a 15% increase in Bitcoin's price over the past week [1][4] - Institutional investors and companies are heavily accumulating Bitcoin, with record low outflows from exchanges indicating a lack of sellers to meet demand [4][5] Group 2: Institutional Involvement - Over $2.7 billion flowed into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs last week, marking one of the highest weekly inflows since their launch in January 2024 [5][7] - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has surpassed $85 billion in market value, with predictions of reaching $100 billion soon [5] - New companies are entering the market, raising funds to purchase cryptocurrencies, indicating a shift towards institutional participation in the current bull market [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 soon, with some suggesting a potential target of $250,000 by year-end [4] - The demand for Bitcoin futures remains strong, with open interest reaching a record $86.3 billion, reflecting bullish sentiment among traders [7][8] - Despite the positive momentum, there are concerns about market vulnerabilities, particularly related to geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in risk appetite on Wall Street [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the international gold market, with prices rising to $3452 per ounce due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and then dropping back to around $3300 due to a strong dollar, highlight the dual support for domestic gold prices, which have remained stable around 980 RMB per gram [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global central banks continue to accumulate gold, with the World Gold Council reporting that 290 tons were purchased in the first quarter of this year, and China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, with gold now accounting for nearly 15% of its foreign exchange reserves [3]. - The recent geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, have reinforced gold's role as a "hedge against panic," as investors tend to flock to gold during times of uncertainty [6]. Group 2: Inflation and Asset Stability - Despite a decrease in global inflation, the volatility in energy and food prices suggests that gold remains a valuable asset, capable of withstanding the long-term dilution of currency due to its status as a physical asset [7]. - Gold serves as a stabilizer for household assets, providing a safety net during market downturns, and can be a means of wealth transfer across generations, as it retains value over time [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Various methods for investing in gold are available, including physical gold, gold ETFs, and gold stocks, each catering to different risk appetites and investment strategies [10][11][12]. - Physical gold is suitable for conservative investors who prefer tangible assets, while gold ETFs offer low entry barriers and liquidity for those seeking convenience [10][11]. - Gold stocks and thematic funds can provide higher returns during price increases but come with greater volatility and risks associated with company performance and market conditions [12].

Group 1 - The price of paper gold continues to show an upward trend, currently at 767.96 CNY per gram with a daily increase of 0.53% [1] - The fluctuation range has narrowed to 763.29-768.58 CNY per gram, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears at key technical levels [1] - The market's expectation for a July interest rate cut has significantly decreased following Fed Chairman Powell's warning about tariffs potentially raising summer inflation [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policy is a core variable affecting the current market [3] - Fed research indicates that tariff increases may raise price levels through imported inflation, which will directly impact the monetary policy path [3] - The technical analysis shows a typical range-bound pattern, with resistance at 793-803 CNY per gram and support at 739-749 CNY per gram [3]