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ServiceNow:下半年不确定性加剧,预计压力将进一步加大
美股研究社· 2025-09-03 12:56
Core Viewpoint - The market's ability to sustain its recent strong rebound is under scrutiny, particularly with the recent sell-off concentrated on large growth stocks that have driven the rise of the U.S. stock market this year [1]. Company Analysis: ServiceNow - ServiceNow has experienced a significant sell-off despite exceeding expectations in its recent Q2 earnings report, raising concerns about its high valuation premium, especially with potential risks accumulating in the second half of the year [2][4]. - The company's stock price has seen a decline of approximately 10% since May, reducing its valuation premium, but analysts believe there is still room for further decline given the uncertainties in U.S. federal spending and the potential impact of economic fluctuations on the upcoming large-scale renewal cycle [4][6]. - ServiceNow's current stock price is around $900, with a market capitalization of $188.89 billion. After accounting for cash and debt, its enterprise value stands at $179.59 billion. The company has slightly raised its full-year subscription revenue guidance for FY 2025 to between $12.78 billion and $12.80 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year growth, primarily due to a weaker dollar [6][7]. - Analysts project ServiceNow's total revenue to reach $13.18 billion in FY 2025, with a 20% growth rate, and $15.65 billion in FY 2026, with a 19% growth rate. However, its valuation remains high compared to peers like HubSpot and Atlassian, which have similar growth rates but lower revenue multiples [7][8]. - Despite maintaining a strong reputation in the industry, ServiceNow faces intense competition, particularly in IT service management and CRM products. The current economic uncertainty has led to stricter budget reviews among enterprises, potentially impacting market share [8]. - The company's subscription revenue growth rate has remained below 20%, and its ongoing employee expansion has limited profit margin growth, raising concerns about its ability to justify its valuation [8][17]. - ServiceNow's remaining performance obligations (cRPO) have shown a promising growth of 21.5%, indicating that its growth is unlikely to slow significantly in the short term. However, the company must navigate risks related to customer renewals and public sector performance in the upcoming quarters [17][19]. - The company has added approximately 600 employees, bringing its total workforce to 27,300, which is an 11% year-over-year increase. Despite this, there are concerns about the sustainability of its profit margins in a tightening economic environment [19][21]. - Overall, ServiceNow's stock is viewed as overvalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio around 53, which is significantly higher than established software leaders like Salesforce and Workday, whose valuations are more reasonable [21].