Summary of HG Tech (000988.SZ) Management Visit Company Overview - **Company Name**: HG Tech - **Ticker**: 000988.SZ - **Location**: Wuhan, China - **Specialization**: Laser equipment, optoelectronic devices, sensors - **Market Exposure**: AI data centers, consumer electronics, industrial, automotive - **Ranking**: Global top 9 in optical modules in 2024 [2] Key Industry Insights 1. **AI Infrastructure Growth**: - Positive outlook on AI infrastructure ramp-up in both US and China Cloud markets - Projected demand for AI chips: 11 million in 2025, 16 million in 2026, and 21 million in 2027 - ASICs expected to account for 38%, 40%, and 50% of AI chips in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][3] 2. **Optical Modules Demand**: - Anticipated specification upgrades towards 1.6T in US Cloud and rising 800G in China Cloud - Expected global shipment of optical modules: 38 million units for 800G and 14 million units for 1.6T in 2026 - 1.6T optical modules projected to be sourced 60% from GPU AI servers and 40% from ASIC AI servers [1][3] 3. **Market Dynamics**: - Despite GPU restrictions, demand for generative AI is increasing in China, supported by local ecosystem growth post-launch of leading foundation models [1] - The company is expanding its market reach from China Cloud to US Cloud, enhancing competitiveness in high-end modules [3] Business Growth Drivers 1. **Optical Modules**: - Solid demand driven by AI infrastructure and continuous specification upgrades - Anticipated double-digit growth in optical module shipments in China for 2026, particularly in 800G and silicon photonics [3] 2. **Laser Equipment**: - Expected recovery in 2026, driven by sectors such as 3D printing, wearables, shipbuilding, precision agriculture, and PCB industry [3] Investment Recommendations - **Buy Recommendations**: - Epiwafer / CW laser: Landmark, VPEC - Optical module: Innolight, Eoptolink, TFC Optical - ODM: Ruijie [1] Additional Insights - Management maintains a positive outlook on business growth for 2026, emphasizing the importance of high-end optical modules and laser equipment recovery [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q4 2025 was $261.2 million, with adjusted EPS at $0.94 per diluted share. For the full year, FY25 revenue reached $967 million, representing a more than 32% increase year over year, and EPS was $3.47, up more than 35% year over year [4][24][29] - Free cash flow generated was $193 million, with cash and short-term investments totaling approximately $786 million at year-end [4][32] - The adjusted operating margin for FY25 grew by 140 basis points to 25.4%, and cash flow from operations increased by 45% to $235.4 million [24][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 revenue performance by end market included industrial and defense at $115.6 million, telecom at $66 million, and data center at $79.6 million. Industrial and defense revenues were up approximately 7% sequentially, and data center revenues were up approximately 5% sequentially [5][25] - The company launched over 200 new products in FY25, which contributed to revenue growth and improved gross margins [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. domestic customers represented approximately 43% of Q4 revenue, with full fiscal year 2025 U.S.-based revenue at approximately 44% [25] - The defense market saw over 50% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by high-power GaN components [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve $1 billion in annual revenues, with a focus on technology and product differentiation, particularly in high-frequency and high-power IC products [6][7] - Plans to open two additional IC design centers to enhance R&D capabilities and expand market share [8] - The strategic agreement with HRL to license the T3L process is expected to enhance MACOM's capabilities in high-frequency applications and capture significant market share [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving revenue growth in FY2026, driven by data center demand and improvements in telecom and defense sectors [34][41] - The company anticipates continued growth in the LEO satellite market, with potential revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars [42][43] - Management highlighted strong October bookings as a positive indicator for the start of FY2026 [41] Other Important Information - The company expects Q1 FY2026 revenue to be in the range of $265-$273 million, with adjusted gross margin anticipated between $56.5-$58.5 million [33][34] - Capital expenditures for FY2026 are estimated to be $50-$55 million, focusing on upgrading production equipment and expanding capacity [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on telecom business outlook - Management identified 5G growth and satellite communications as key drivers for the telecom business in FY2026 [36] Question: Demand trends between 100G and 200G solutions - The 100G business is stable, while significant growth is expected in the 200G segment, particularly for 1.6T applications [37] Question: Update on HRL IP license agreement - The HRL technology complements existing processes and is expected to enhance capabilities in high-frequency SATCOM applications [39] Question: Factors driving growth in FY2026 - Growth is primarily driven by the rollout of 1.6T and 800G platforms, along with a recovery in telecom and strength in defense [41] Question: Size of the LEO satellite market - The LEO business is expected to grow significantly over the next 12-18 months, potentially reaching hundreds of millions in revenue [42][43] Question: Competitive landscape post-merger of competitors - Management does not anticipate significant changes in the competitive landscape due to the merger, as it does not directly impact MACOM [57]

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **China networking industry**, particularly transceiver companies such as **Innolight**, **Eoptolink**, and **HG Tech**. The discussions highlighted optimism regarding both domestic and overseas market opportunities, with a significant increase in investor participation compared to the previous year [1][2]. Core Insights 1. **Market Opportunities**: - The **scale-up market** for optical communication systems (OCS) is expected to grow rapidly, with mass adoption anticipated sooner than for co-packaged optics (CPO) [1]. - A penetration rate of over **20-30%** for scale-out is projected by **2029-2030** [1]. 2. **Transceiver Development**: - The **3.2T transceiver** is ready for deployment, with a roadmap for **6.4T** and **12.8T** pluggable transceivers becoming more certain [1]. - Companies like **HG Tech** are demonstrating their **3.2T SiPh transceivers**, with ongoing R&D for higher capacity solutions [2][16]. 3. **Demand Forecast**: - Optimism surrounds demand for **800G** and **1.6T** transceivers, with expectations of several million units needed next year and beyond [2]. - **Innolight** anticipates a bullish demand outlook for **1.6T** deployment in **2026**, potentially reaching **10 million units** [11]. 4. **Technological Advancements**: - The **co-packaged copper (CPC)** solution is gaining attention as a bridging technology before CPO becomes mainstream [4]. - The **SiPh (Silicon Photonics)** technology is expected to see increased penetration, with **60-70%** of shipments projected to be SiPh by **2026/2027** [15]. 5. **Strategic Positioning**: - **Luxshare** is positioned as a leader in capturing CPC opportunities, collaborating with major customers [4]. - Companies are focusing on **de-coupling solutions** for optics, which are expected to gradually replace copper solutions [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: - **YJ Semi** is ramping up CW laser production to support the growth in demand, indicating a positive outlook for transceiver companies like Innolight and Eoptolink [6]. - The **300mW CW laser** is seen as a key opportunity with a significantly higher average selling price (ASP) compared to the **70mW** variant [7]. - **Market Challenges**: - Tier-2 and tier-3 companies are struggling to penetrate overseas supply chains, while leading companies are expected to thrive in the upcoming super cycle [2]. - **Revenue Trends**: - **HG Tech** reported strong domestic demand for **400G** and **800G** transceivers, aligning with positive forecasts for Innolight and Eoptolink [16][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the China networking industry.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for YJ Semitech is "Sell" with a 12-month price target of Rmb100, indicating a downside potential of 21.9% from the current price of Rmb128.04 [8][10]. Core Insights - YJ Semitech is experiencing strong demand for its Continuous Wave (CW) lasers, particularly from key customers in the silicon photonics transceiver market, and is planning to ramp up shipments significantly in the coming quarters [2][8]. - The company is expanding its production capacity to meet the increasing demand for CW lasers and aims to reach a capacity of low tens of millions of units per year by 2026 [2][8]. - YJ Semitech's CW laser pricing is slightly below that of global peers, and its datacom segment gross margin was reported at 71% in 2024, driven mainly by customized products [4][8]. Summary by Sections CW Laser Ramp Outlook - Management maintains a positive outlook for CW laser shipments, driven by strong demand from key customers [2]. - The company is addressing supply tightness in CW and EML lasers by expanding output capacity through additional equipment and improved yield levels [2]. Competitive Barriers - The competitive landscape is characterized by high switching costs for customers, who evaluate suppliers based on product quality, reliability, delivery capability, and capacity scale [3]. Margins and Pricing Comparison - The gross margin for the datacom segment was 71% in 2024, while CW lasers are expected to have a gross margin below the segment average [4]. - The company is currently priced slightly below its global peers, indicating potential pricing power in the future [4]. 100G EML Outlook - YJ Semitech's 100G EML products have passed customer qualifications but are not yet in mass production due to prioritization of CW laser production [6]. - As capacity expands, the company anticipates more room for EML production, which will aid in ramping up EML products [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to YJ Semitech [1][9][12] Core Insights - The primary driver for YJ Semitech's growth in 2025 is the ramp-up of Continuous Wave (CW) laser shipments, supported by strong demand from key customers in silicon photonics transceivers [2][9] - The company is experiencing supply tightness in both CW lasers and Electro-Absorption Modulated Lasers (EML), prompting plans for capacity expansion to meet customer demand [2][9] - YJ Semitech aims to reach a production capacity of low tens of millions of units per year by 2026, positioning itself for future trends in the industry [2][9] Summary by Sections CW Laser Ramp Outlook - Management maintains a positive outlook for CW laser shipments, driven by strong demand from key customers [2] - The company is expanding output capacity through additional equipment and improved yield levels [2] - The capacity expansion is intended to capture near-term opportunities and future trends in the industry [2] Competitive Barriers - The key competitive barrier is not just product performance but also includes product quality, reliability, delivery capability, and capacity scale [3] - Once a supplier establishes a solid track record, customers are unlikely to switch suppliers easily [3] Margins and Pricing Comparison - YJ Semitech's CW laser pricing is slightly below that of global peers [4] - The gross margin for the datacom segment is projected at 71% in 2024, primarily driven by customized products [4] 100G EML Outlook - The company's 100G EML products have passed customer qualifications but are not yet in mass production due to prioritization of CW laser production [7] - As capacity increases, there will be more room for EML production, aiding in ramp progress [7] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb252 million in 2024 to Rmb460 million in 2025, and further to Rmb665 million in 2026 [8] - The net income is expected to rise from Rmb161 million in 2025 to Rmb284 million in 2026 [8] - The report sets a 12-month price target of Rmb100 based on a 30x 2026E P/E ratio, indicating a downside potential of 21.9% from the current price of Rmb128.04 [10][12]