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Summary of Mengniu Dairy Corporate Day Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer & Leisure, specifically dairy products Key Takeaways 1. **Sales Guidance for FY25**: - Management reiterated a sales decline guidance of mid-single digits to high-single digits (MSD%-HSD%) for FY25, with expectations of a similar decline in the second half of FY25 [1] - Despite challenges, the company aims for a flat operating profit margin (OPM) year-over-year in 2025, although there are potential pressures from liquid milk pricing adjustments and channel investments [1] 2. **Segment Performance**: - **UHT Milk**: Demand remains soft, with greater pressure on basic milk compared to deluxe milk in the second half of FY25 [1] - **Chilled Fresh Milk**: Expected to achieve double-digit percentage (DD%) sales growth for FY25 and FY26, driven by brand investment and channel expansion [1] - **Chilled Yogurt**: Anticipated slight positive sales growth in FY25, supported by health trends and new initiatives like customized products with Sam's Club [1] - **Cheese and Milk Powder**: Management is optimistic about achieving DD% sales growth in cheese and solid OPM improvement in milk powder for FY25 [1] 3. **Industry Outlook**: - Overall demand in the dairy industry remains weak, with a projected 7-8% volume decline in liquid milk for 2025 [1] - Mengniu Dairy is expected to underperform the industry due to delayed pricing adjustments in response to declining raw milk prices [1] 4. **Financial Adjustments**: - The company anticipates a significant reduction in dry powder impairment losses by 40-50% compared to 2024, with a narrowed volume in dry powder expected in the second half of FY25 [1] - There are ongoing impairments related to the herd size cut at Modern Dairy for FY25 [1] 5. **Shareholder Returns**: - Mengniu Dairy plans to maintain its dividend per share (DPS) and total dividend in 2025 compared to 2024, with a total dividend payout expected to gradually increase [1] - The company will continue its share buy-back program, which will be larger in scale compared to the previous round in 2024 [1] Additional Insights - **Valuation and Price Target**: - Goldman Sachs has a Buy rating on Mengniu Dairy with a 12-month price target of HK$20.50, representing a potential upside of 36.9% from the current price of HK$14.97 [7] - The valuation is based on a 2026E P/E of 15.1x, which is one standard deviation below the prior downcycle P/E in 2015-16 [6] - **Risks**: - Key downside risks include slower-than-expected premium demand, a slower recovery in dairy demand, increased competition in the dairy industry, and wider losses in new product categories [6] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed during the Mengniu Dairy Corporate Day, highlighting the company's performance expectations, industry challenges, and strategic initiatives for shareholder returns.

Core Insights - Savencia Fromage & Dairy has signed an agreement to acquire Quatá Alimentos, a Brazilian cheese and dairy products manufacturer, enhancing its local portfolio with established brands like Glória and Quatá [2][3] - Quatá is recognized for its commitment to quality, sourcing high-quality milk from São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro, and holds a strong market position in Brazil [4] - The acquisition aims to reinforce Savencia's presence in Brazil, complementing its existing brands such as Polenghi and Campo Lindo, and is seen as a significant step in its growth strategy [5] Company Overview - Savencia Fromage & Dairy is a family-owned independent food group with 22,751 employees globally, ranking as the second largest cheese group in France and the fifth largest worldwide [8] - The company is supported by strong brands both in France and internationally, including Caprice des Dieux and Saint Agur [8] Transaction Details - The completion of the acquisition is subject to approval by CADE antitrust authorities, and both companies will operate independently until the approval process is finalized [7] - Founders of Quatá Alimentos expressed that joining Savencia honors their journey and strengthens their commitment to development [6]

Market Trends - Butter, milk, and cheese prices are falling due to a surge in global milk production [1] - The market is facing a looming period of weak prices [1]

Core Insights - Saputo Inc. reported solid financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with revenues of $4.721 billion, a slight increase of 0.3% compared to the previous year, driven by higher sales volumes and prices in North America and international markets [2][3] - The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $450 million, reflecting a 15.7% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.5% [3][4] - Net earnings rose to $185 million, or $0.45 per share, up from $126 million, primarily due to higher adjusted EBITDA and a gain on hyperinflation in Argentina [4][9] Financial Highlights - Revenues for the second quarter were $4.721 billion, up $13 million from $4.708 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $450 million, an increase of $61 million or 15.7%, with a margin improvement from 8.3% to 9.5% [3][4] - Net earnings increased to $185 million, up $59 million from the previous year, with earnings per share rising from $0.30 to $0.45 [4][9] Sector Performance Canada Sector - Revenues increased to $1.373 billion, up 6.1% from $1.294 billion, driven by higher sales volumes in retail, foodservice, and industrial segments [20][21] - Adjusted EBITDA for the sector was $179 million, a 10.5% increase from $162 million, with a margin of 13.0% [23][24] USA Sector - Revenues decreased to $2.153 billion, down 3.2% from $2.225 billion, impacted by lower US dairy commodity prices [28][29] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $167 million, a 15.2% increase from $145 million, with a margin improvement to 7.8% [32][34] International and Europe Sectors - International Sector revenues were $871 million, down 4.5% from $912 million, while Europe Sector revenues increased to $324 million, up 17.0% [43][58] - Adjusted EBITDA for the International Sector was $79 million, a significant increase of 46.3%, while Europe Sector adjusted EBITDA decreased to $25 million [48][62] Strategic Initiatives - The company emphasized the importance of commercial investments, operational improvements, and cost optimization initiatives in driving performance [2][3] - Continued focus on maximizing returns on investments and strengthening commercial strategies is a priority moving forward [2][3] - The company plans to maintain disciplined capital deployment and expects capital expenditures of approximately $360 million in fiscal 2026 [68]

Core Insights - The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is one of the largest food and beverage companies globally, with a market cap of $31.8 billion and operations across multiple regions [1] Performance Overview - KHC has underperformed the broader market in 2025, with stock prices dropping nearly 20% year-to-date and 27.1% over the past 52 weeks, compared to the S&P 500 Index's 16% gains year-to-date and 17.4% returns over the past year [2] - The company also lagged behind the Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF, which saw a 9.3% decline year-to-date and a 14.4% drop over the past year [3] Recent Financial Results - Following the release of mixed Q3 results on October 29, KHC's stock prices fell 4.5%. The company reported a 2.3% year-over-year decline in overall sales to $6.2 billion, missing market expectations [4] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter dropped 18.7% year-over-year to $0.61, although it exceeded consensus estimates by 7% [4] Future Outlook - Analysts project KHC's adjusted EPS for the full fiscal 2025 to be $2.55, reflecting a 16.7% year-over-year decline. However, the company has a strong earnings surprise history, having surpassed bottom-line estimates in the past four quarters [6] - The consensus opinion among 22 analysts covering the stock is a "Hold," consisting of two "Strong Buys," 19 "Holds," and one "Moderate Sell" [6] Restructuring Plans - KHC is undergoing a restructuring plan to split into two separate companies by Q2 2026, which may further pressure margins in the short term due to associated restructuring costs [5] Analyst Ratings - TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow reiterated a "Hold" rating on KHC and lowered the price target from $28 to $26 on October 29, indicating a slightly less pessimistic outlook compared to two months prior [7]

Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a surge in bookings and sales following a month-long slump, attributed to the implementation of GST rate cuts and pent-up consumer demand during the festive season [1][12] - Major companies, including Hyundai, Sony, and Haier, are preparing for significant sales increases, with Hyundai expected to bill over 10,000 vehicles to dealers on a single day [2][6] - Fast-moving consumer goods companies like Amul and Parle Products anticipate a 25-30% increase in primary sales as retailers replenish their stocks [7][11] Automotive Sector - Hyundai is projected to achieve a new high in single-day vehicle billing, with bookings increasing by over 50% following the announcement of new GST rates [5][12] - The total wholesale billing value for car manufacturers is estimated to be between Rs 4,500-5,000 crore on the upcoming Monday [6][12] - Honda Cars India reports strong growth in bookings, indicating a positive momentum in the automotive market [9][13] Electronics Sector - Companies like Sony and Haier are confirming high sales figures, with Haier expecting over Rs 250 crore in sales on the same day [6][12] - Sony anticipates a surge in consumer demand by over 20%, following a period of flat sales [9][13] - Television brands such as Thomson and Kodak are also experiencing peak sales, surpassing previous records set after the Covid lockdowns [6][12] Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) - FMCG companies are expecting a significant increase in primary sales, with Parle Products indicating a dry trade pipeline that will lead to a surge of 25-30% in sales [7][12] - Dairy brand Amul notes that while basic necessities are being purchased, there is a shift towards higher-value items like ghee, which are now more affordable due to price adjustments [11][12] - Companies are preparing for increased stocking of large packs and premium items in response to consumer demand [10][13]

Core Insights - The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is a major player in the global food and beverage industry, with a market capitalization of $31.8 billion and a diverse product range [1][2] Company Performance - KHC stock has decreased by 26.5% from its 52-week high of $36.31 on October 21, 2024, while showing a slight increase of 72 basis points over the past three months, outperforming the First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG), which declined by 1.3% during the same period [3] - Year-to-date, KHC stock has dropped 13.2%, and over the past 52 weeks, it has fallen by 26%, significantly underperforming FTXG's 3.5% dip in 2025 and 14.4% decline over the past year [4] - Following the release of Q2 results on July 30, KHC's organic sales fell by 2%, leading to a 1.9% year-over-year decrease in total revenue to $6.35 billion. Adjusted gross margins contracted by 140 basis points to 34.1%, and adjusted operating income declined by 7.5% to $1.3 billion. Adjusted EPS dropped by 11.5% to $0.69 but exceeded consensus estimates by 7.8% [5] Competitive Position - KHC has performed slightly better than Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), which saw an 18.7% decline year-to-date, but KHC underperformed HRL's 21.2% drop over the past 52 weeks [6]

Core Viewpoint - Mengniu reported a 16.4% year-on-year (YoY) net profit decrease alongside a 6.9% YoY revenue drop in 1H25, which was below expectations. However, the core operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 1.5 percentage points YoY, attributed to lower raw milk costs and strict expense control. For FY25, management has revised down revenue guidance to a mid-single-digit (MSD%) or high-single-digit (HSD%) YoY decline, with core OPM expected to remain flat YoY [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, Mengniu's total revenue was RMB41.6 billion, down 6.9% YoY, and net profit was RMB2,046 million, down 16.4% YoY, both missing expectations. The core OPM increased to 8.5%, exceeding expectations due to gross profit margin (GPM) expansion from lower raw milk costs and disciplined expense management. Cash flow improved significantly, with cash flow from operations (CFO) at RMB2.8 billion, up from RMB1.9 billion in 1H24, aided by better working capital management and a 40% YoY reduction in capital expenditures (capex) to RMB1.0 billion [2][3]. Product Category Performance - Liquid milk sales fell by 11% YoY in 1H25, indicating weak dairy consumption demand. However, the YoY sales decline narrowed in Q2 compared to Q1. Other product categories, such as ice cream, milk formula, and cheese, showed resilient growth with YoY increases of 15%, 2%, and 12%, respectively [3]. Management Changes - A change in the CFO position was announced, with Mr. Ping Zhang retiring and Mr. Xinwen Shen appointed as the new CFO effective September 1, 2025. Mr. Shen has extensive experience, having served in various roles within COFCO Corporation Group for around 30 years [3]. Future Guidance - Management anticipates a revenue decrease of MSD% or HSD% YoY for 2025, with core OPM expected to stabilize at over 8%, indicating a half-on-half (HoH) decrease. The long-term OPM expansion target remains intact at +30-50 basis points each year, supported by potential mix upgrades and efficiency gains. Mengniu plans to renew its share repurchase program, potentially valuing up to HK$1 billion over the next 12 months, alongside a steady dividend payout ratio of over 45% based on adjusted net profit [4].

CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY COMPANY LIMITED (2319.HK) 2025 Interim Results Legal Disclaimer The presentation is prepared by China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (the "Company") and is solely for the purpose of corporate communication and general reference only. The presentation is not intended as an offer to sell, or to solicit an offer to buy or to form any basis of investment decision for any class of securities of the Company in any jurisdiction. All such information should not be used or relied on without profes ...