Kellanova, a huge consumer packaged goods company, has been acquired by Mars, and K stock is expected to be delisted soon, as its acquisition closed yesterday, Dec. 11. Consequently, the former owners of K stock may be thinking of looking to buy Kraft Heinz (KHC), which is the closest publicly traded alternative to Kellanova. About KHC Stock Kraft Heinz, as its name indicates, owns and markets the Kraft and Heinz brands. It also has many other consumer packaged food brands, such as Oscar Mayer, Jell-O, ...

Core Strategy - The J.M. Smucker Company focuses on innovation and portfolio discipline as key enablers of long-term growth, strengthening core brands and aligning investments with evolving consumer needs [1][5] Consumer-led Innovation - Consumer-led innovation is a central growth driver across categories, with the Milk-Bone brand introducing new offerings like PB Bites and seasonal varieties to maintain engagement and brand loyalty despite selective spending by pet owners [2] SKU Rationalization - In sweet baked snacks, the company is rationalizing SKUs within the Hostess portfolio, prioritizing high-return sub-brands and discontinuing lower-performing products to enhance execution and profitability, with Donettes being a strong contributor [3] Frozen Handheld and Spreads Growth - The company emphasizes ongoing momentum in its frozen handheld and spreads portfolio, particularly through the Uncrustables platform, benefiting from broader distribution and expansion in convenience and away-from-home channels [4][8] Sales Growth Projections - The J.M. Smucker expects fiscal 2026 net sales to grow between 3% and 5%, with comparable net sales projected to advance roughly 4.5% to 6.5%, outperforming competitors like General Mills and Kraft Heinz [6]

Core Insights - The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is a major global food and beverage entity with a market capitalization of $30.2 billion, formed from the merger of Kraft Foods and H.J. Heinz in 2015, and is known for brands like Kraft, Heinz, Oscar Mayer, and Philadelphia [1] Financial Performance - KHC is expected to announce its fiscal third-quarter earnings for 2025 on October 29, with analysts predicting a profit of $0.57 per share, a decrease of 24% from $0.75 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For the current fiscal year, analysts forecast an EPS of $2.57, down 16% from $3.06 in fiscal 2024, but expect a slight recovery with an EPS of $2.62 in fiscal 2026, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase [3] Stock Performance - Over the past year, KHC shares have declined by 29%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which gained 14.1%, and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, which fell by 2.8% [4] - Since February 2017, KHC's stock has lost over 70% of its value, attributed to a focus on cost-cutting, slow adaptation to healthier consumer trends, increased competition, and tighter household budgets [5] Recent Earnings and Market Reaction - Following the Q2 earnings release on July 30, KHC's stock experienced a slight dip, reporting a 2% drop in organic sales and a 1.9% decline in revenue to $6.35 billion, with adjusted operating income falling 7.5% to $1.3 billion; however, adjusted EPS of $0.69 exceeded expectations by 7.8% [6] Analyst Sentiment - The consensus among analysts regarding KHC stock is cautious, with a "Hold" rating overall; out of 22 analysts, 2 recommend a "Strong Buy," 19 suggest a "Hold," and 1 proposes a "Moderate Sell," with an average price target of $28.24, indicating a potential upside of 10.7% from current levels [7]

Core Insights - The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) experienced uneven results in fiscal 2026, with the Pet Foods segment significantly impacting overall performance [1] - The Pet Foods segment faced challenges, including a decline in sales and profit, primarily due to issues in the dog snacks category and the loss of a contract manufacturing agreement [2][3] - Other segments, such as Away From Home and coffee, showed growth, indicating potential for expansion despite the struggles in Pet Foods [4] Financial Performance - Pet Foods segment sales decreased by 8% to $368 million, with profit down 12% to $101.3 million [2][7] - The adverse impact on net sales was attributed to an 8-percentage point decline in volume/mix, while net price realization remained neutral [2] - Margins contracted by 130 basis points to 27.5% in the Pet Foods segment [2] Market Position and Competitors - J.M. Smucker competes with General Mills (GIS), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), and Mondelez International (MDLZ) [5] - The company anticipates fiscal 2026 net sales growth in the range of 3-5%, with comparable net sales expected to rise approximately 4.5-6.5% [5] - Competitors' projections for organic net sales growth vary, with General Mills expecting a range from a 1% decline to a 1% increase, Kraft Heinz projecting a decline between 1.5% and 3.5%, and Mondelez International forecasting around 5% growth [5]

Core Insights - The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is a major player in the global food and beverage industry, with a market capitalization of $31.8 billion and a diverse product range [1][2] Company Performance - KHC stock has decreased by 26.5% from its 52-week high of $36.31 on October 21, 2024, while showing a slight increase of 72 basis points over the past three months, outperforming the First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG), which declined by 1.3% during the same period [3] - Year-to-date, KHC stock has dropped 13.2%, and over the past 52 weeks, it has fallen by 26%, significantly underperforming FTXG's 3.5% dip in 2025 and 14.4% decline over the past year [4] - Following the release of Q2 results on July 30, KHC's organic sales fell by 2%, leading to a 1.9% year-over-year decrease in total revenue to $6.35 billion. Adjusted gross margins contracted by 140 basis points to 34.1%, and adjusted operating income declined by 7.5% to $1.3 billion. Adjusted EPS dropped by 11.5% to $0.69 but exceeded consensus estimates by 7.8% [5] Competitive Position - KHC has performed slightly better than Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), which saw an 18.7% decline year-to-date, but KHC underperformed HRL's 21.2% drop over the past 52 weeks [6]

Core Insights - Kraft Heinz reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.69, exceeding analyst estimates of $0.64, while GAAP revenue reached $6.35 billion, slightly above the consensus of $6.27 billion, despite year-over-year declines in both metrics [1][2] - The company faced challenges in core North American volume and persistent margin pressure, highlighted by a significant non-cash impairment charge of $9.3 billion [1][8] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS decreased by 11.5% year-over-year from $0.78 to $0.69 [2] - GAAP revenue fell by 1.9% from $6.48 billion to $6.35 billion [2] - Adjusted gross profit margin declined by 1.4 percentage points to 34.1% [2] - Adjusted operating income decreased by 7.5% from $1.38 billion to $1.28 billion [2] - Free cash flow increased by 28.2% year-over-year, reaching $1.50 billion [2] Business Overview - Kraft Heinz produces a wide range of food products and beverages, including cheese, sauces, cold cuts, and ready meals, with a strong portfolio of recognized brands [3] Strategic Focus - The company's strategy emphasizes growth in emerging markets, managing raw material costs, and leveraging brand strength through effective marketing and product innovation [4] Market Trends - Organic net sales declined by 2.0% in Q2 FY2025, primarily due to a 2.7 percentage point drop in volume/mix [6] - North America experienced a 3.3% decrease in net sales, with a 3.4 percentage point decline in volume/mix [6] - Emerging markets showed a positive trend with net sales up 4.2% and organic net sales rising 7.6% [7] Margin Analysis - Adjusted gross profit margin fell to 34.1%, driven by rising input costs that outpaced cost-efficiency initiatives [8] - The significant impairment charge overshadowed underlying profitability, resulting in a net loss for the quarter [9] Shareholder Returns - The company paid out $951 million in dividends and repurchased $435 million in shares year-to-date for FY2025 [10] - Capital expenditures decreased by 21.8% year-over-year, indicating a focus on shareholder returns [10] Future Guidance - Kraft Heinz expects organic net sales to decline by 1.5% to 3.5% and adjusted operating income to fall by 5% to 10% in FY2025 [11] - The adjusted EPS range for FY2025 is projected at $2.51 to $2.67 [11] - The effective tax rate on adjusted EPS is anticipated to rise to 26% due to new global minimum tax requirements [11]

Core Viewpoint - Kraft Heinz Co. is reportedly considering a significant corporate restructuring, potentially splitting into two distinct entities: a grocery division and a "Taste Elevation" segment focused on sauces and spreads [1][4]. Group 1: Corporate Restructuring - The potential breakup would mark a pivotal moment for Kraft Heinz, formed by the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz [1][7]. - The restructuring aligns with recent strategic announcements aimed at enhancing shareholder value [1][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The prospect of a split has received mixed reactions, with some analysts questioning its effectiveness in addressing the company's underlying business challenges [2][6]. - Bank of America Securities analyst Peter T. Galbo maintains an Underperform rating with a $29 price forecast, citing soft fundamentals and valuing the stock at 11x estimated 2026 earnings [3][6]. Group 3: Segment Financials - The Taste Elevation segment, which includes brands like Heinz and Philadelphia, accounts for approximately 45% of trailing 12-month sales, or $11 billion, and is likely to remain with the parent company [5]. - The Grocery segment, making up the remaining 55% of sales (around $14 billion), includes brands such as Kraft, Oscar Mayer, and Lunchables, and is expected to be spun off [5]. Group 4: Analyst Insights - Galbo estimates only modest upside from a potential breakup, projecting a 6.9% increase to the $29 price forecast, and believes that a split alone will not significantly enhance shareholder value without broader operational improvements [6]. - Oscar Mayer is flagged as a strategic uncertainty, with potential sale discussions to companies like JBS or Alfa, although it may also remain within the Grocery segment to avoid de-synergies [7]. Group 5: Other Analyst Updates - Wells Fargo analyst Chris Carey has maintained an Equal-Weight rating and raised the price forecast from $27 to $29 [8]. - As of the last check, KHC shares were trading higher by 2.23% to $27.75 [8].