Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has issued a report on Circle, warning that its valuation is excessively high and has set a "reduce" rating with a target price of $80, a significant 56% reduction from the current stock price of $180 [1][3]. Valuation Concerns - Since its IPO at $31 on June 4, Circle's stock has surged 482%, reaching a market capitalization of $40 billion [2]. - The target price of $80 is based on a 45 times price-to-earnings ratio for an adjusted earnings per share of $1.56 in 2027, plus a $10 "investor enthusiasm premium" [6]. Business Model Challenges - Circle's revenue model heavily relies on reserve investment income, with 97% of its income derived from this source, making it highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations [1][14]. - Distribution costs are rising, with projections indicating a drop in gross margin from 39% to 34% as the company increases partnerships to promote USDC [9][12]. Competitive Landscape - Circle faces intense competition, particularly from new entrants offering higher yields to capture market share, which could significantly impact its economic viability [1][17]. - Coinbase is Circle's largest distribution partner, expected to receive $908 million in revenue share in 2024, which constitutes 55% of Circle's reserve income [12]. Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is projected to grow to $1.8 trillion by 2036, with USDC's market share expected to increase to 40%, but these assumptions are considered overly optimistic [7]. - A decline in interest rates could stimulate demand for stablecoins, potentially increasing USDC usage [14]. Regulatory Environment - Circle is positioned to benefit from upcoming regulatory frameworks in the U.S. and Europe, as it is considered the most compliant stablecoin issuer [16][18]. - The company is also exploring international markets, particularly in high-inflation countries, which could provide significant growth opportunities [18]. Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the Circle Payments Network (CPN) in May 2025 is seen as a critical strategic move, aiming to integrate stablecoin functionalities into existing banking channels [19]. - CPN targets the B2B cross-border payment and consumer remittance sectors, with a potential market size of $37 trillion in B2B cross-border payments [20]. Future Outlook - Success in establishing CPN could position Circle as the "stablecoin version of Swift," while failure may result in it becoming a low-margin player in the multi-currency stablecoin market [22].

美国稳定币巨头Circle的股价狂欢或将戛然而止？ 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通周一重磅发布Circle首次覆盖报告，警告其估值过高冲出舒适区并给予"减持"评级，目标价80美元， 较当前180美元股价大幅下调56%。 报告指出，Circle面临多重挑战，首先是估值高企，尽管看好Circle在稳定币市场的领先地位和USDC的增长前景，但公司当前估值 已被推至"舒适区之外"，指出即便再给10%"情绪溢价"，也只有80美元。 同时，摩根大通警告，利率下行和分销成本上行形成"剪刀差"吞噬利润，Circle的商业模式高度依赖利率变化，97%的收入来自储 备金收益，这使得公司盈利能力极易受到货币政策波动影响。其次，分销成本持续上升，或使毛利率从39%下降至34%。 此外，Circle面临激烈竞争威胁，特别是新进入者可能通过提供收益率来争夺市场份额，而稳定币业务的转换成本相对较低。一 旦"赢家通吃"的市场格局被打破，Circle的经济效益将显著受损。 估值泡沫显现：IPO迄今涨幅482%引发预警 自6月4日以31美元价格IPO以来，Circle股价已飙涨482%，市值达到400亿美元。 而摩根大通为Circle设定了80美元 ...

Circle Internet Group (CRCL -14.49%) has been one of the hottest stocks on Wall Street in recent weeks. The company held its initial public offering (IPO) on June 5, listing 34 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange. Circle priced its IPO at $31 per share, but the stock opened at $69 and has since soared 290% to $270. Here's what investors should know. Circle is the company behind stablecoin USDC Circle's USDC is the only top-10 stablecoin currently in compliance with the MiCA regulations. However, t ...

疯狂的涨势"根本停不下来"！"稳定币第一股"Circle隔夜又飙升超20%，自IPO以来累计涨幅超650%。尽管已经累计了惊人涨幅，但仍有分析仍首次给予该股 买入评级。 周五（6月20日），"稳定币第一股"Circle延续疯狂涨势，再度飙升逾20%至240.28美元。在美国参议院通过GENIUS法案后，连续第二个交易日大涨。 据华尔街见闻次前文章提及，周三，美国参议院以68-30的票数通过GENIUS法案，为美元支持的稳定币建立联邦监管框架，要求发行商持有国债等安全资产 作为储备。消息出炉之后，当天Circle暴涨近30%。 自6月5日IPO以来，Circle股价累计涨幅超过675%，从IPO时31美元的发行价飙升至周五收盘的240.28美元。尽管涨幅惊人，但是Seaport Research Partners 分析师Jeff Cantwell仍首次给予该股买入评级，目标价235美元。 Cantwell预计，随着监管环境改善和加密货币接受度提升，稳定币市场将迎来爆发式增长。Cantwell认为，Circle作为"顶级加密颠覆者"，有望在这轮增长中 获得巨大收益，实现年化25%-30%的收入增长。 不过，Cir ...

Uber Technologies is reportedly considering using stablecoins to transfer money among different countries.By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins required.Stablecoins are appealing to global companies because they c ...