Certain analysts think Circle Internet Group and The Trade Desk are so deeply undervalued that shareholders will see triple-digit returns in the next yearShares of Circle Internet Group (CRCL 8.98%) and The Trade Desk (TTD 0.69%) have fallen 73% and 71%, respectively, from their highs. But certain Wall Street analysts believe the stocks are deeply undervalued.Jeff Cantwell at Seaport Research recently set his target price on Circle at $280 per share. That implies 300% upside from its current share price of ...

【瑞穗下调Circle目标价，担忧其收入受利率及增长影响】11月17日，瑞穗指出，稳定币发行商Circle多 数收入源于USDC储备利息，储备主要投向短期美国国债、国债回购协议及现金。若利率下降或USDC 增长未达预期，公司收入可能受冲击。随着利率走低、USDC推广不佳及发行成本上升，未来数年 Circle市场共识预期或下调。瑞穗重申对Circle"跑输大盘"评级，将目标价从84美元降至70美元。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

【瑞穗下调Circle目标价，警示利率与市场风险】11月17日，瑞穗指出，稳定币发行商Circle多数收入源 于USDC储备利息，其储备主要投向短期美债、国债回购协议及现金。若利率下降或USDC增长未达预 期，公司收入将受影响。随着利率走低、USDC推广不佳及发行成本上升，未来数年Circle市场共识预 期大概率下调。瑞穗重申对Circle"跑输大盘"评级，还将目标价从84美元降至70美元。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

瑞穗指出，稳定币发行商Circle的大部分收入来自USDC储备所产生的利息，而这些储备主要投资于短 期美国国债、国债回购协议及现金。因此，如果利率下降或USDC增长不如预期，公司收入可能受影 响。随着利率走低、USDC稳定币推广不及预期，以及发行成本上升，未来数年Circle的市场共识预期 很可能下调。瑞穗重申对Circle的"跑输大盘"评级，并将其目标价从84美元下调至70美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Circle's strong Q3 earnings report did not alleviate market concerns about future profitability due to rising costs, a declining interest rate environment, and potential insider stock sales [3][5][12] Financial Performance - Circle reported Q3 revenue of $739.8 million, a 66% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $706.7 million [9] - Earnings per share reached $0.64, significantly exceeding Wall Street's forecast of $0.20 [9] - The growth was primarily driven by the expansion of its core product, the USDC stablecoin, which had a circulation of $73.7 billion by the end of September, more than double the amount from the previous year [10] Cost Outlook - The company raised its 2025 operating expense forecast to between $495 million and $510 million, up from a previous range of $475 million to $490 million, raising investor concerns about cost control and future profitability [7][12] - Although the company increased its revenue expectations for subscription and service income from $80 million to $95 million, the larger increase in cost forecasts overshadowed this positive news [12] Market Concerns - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to pressure Circle's core revenue sources, as the company's interest income from USDC reserves, primarily invested in money market funds, is likely to decline [8][14] - The return rate on the company's reserves dropped by 96 basis points to 4.15% in the latest quarter [14] - Concerns were also raised about the potential early expiration of the lock-up period for insider stock sales, which could lead to increased selling pressure on the stock [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Despite Circle's strong Q3 financial performance, investor concerns about future profitability have led to a significant drop in stock price, primarily due to rising costs, a declining interest rate environment, and potential insider stock sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - Circle reported Q3 revenue of $739.8 million, a 66% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $706.7 million [4]. - Earnings per share reached $0.64, significantly exceeding Wall Street's forecast of $0.20 [4]. - The growth was largely driven by the expansion of its core product, the USDC stablecoin, which had a circulation of $73.7 billion by the end of September, more than double the amount from the previous year [4]. Cost Outlook - The company raised its 2025 operating expense forecast to between $495 million and $510 million, up from a previous range of $475 million to $490 million, raising investor concerns about cost control and future profitability [3][5]. - Although the company increased its revenue expectations for subscriptions and services from $80 million to $95 million, the larger increase in cost forecasts overshadowed this positive news [5]. Market Concerns - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to pressure Circle's core revenue sources, as the company primarily earns interest from its USDC reserves invested in money market funds [7]. - The return rate on the company's reserves has already decreased by 96 basis points to 4.15% in the latest quarter [7]. - Circle's CFO argued that lower interest rates could stimulate economic activity and investment, potentially benefiting the business in the short term [7]. Insider Selling Pressure - Concerns about a potential early end to the stock lock-up period for insiders have added to the downward pressure on the stock price. The lock-up period, typically lasting 180 days post-IPO, may conclude as early as the second trading day after the release of the Q3 financial results [8].

Circle (CRCL) stock dropped as much as 10% Wednesday as investor concerns over falling interest rates outweighed the company's strong earnings and revenue growth, fueled by rising market share for its stablecoin issuance. Circle reported roughly $740 million in total revenue and reserve income in its third quarter, up 66% year over year, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $707.3 million. As the second-largest stablecoin issuer, Circle posted adjusted earnings of $0.64 per share, well above analysts' exp ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - USDC in circulation grew 108% year-over-year to $73.7 billion, indicating strong market share expansion [8][23] - Total revenue and reserve income increased 66% year-on-year to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA growing 78% year-on-year to $166 million, reflecting a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin [9][25] - Reserve return rate was 4.15%, down 96 basis points year-on-year due to a decline in SOFR [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Circle Payments Network (CPN) saw significant growth in transaction volumes, with over 100x growth in monthly total payment volume since its launch [21][20] - CCTP (Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol) volume grew approximately 640% year-over-year to $31.3 billion in Q3 [12][13] - Subscription and services revenue reached $23.6 million, primarily from blockchain network partnerships, with strong growth in underlying recurring revenues [24][83] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The stablecoin market continued to grow, with Circle's share increasing to 29% in Q3, up from 28% in the previous quarter [10][42] - Stablecoin transaction volumes grew approximately 130% year-over-year, with USDC's share expanding to 40% [11] - On-chain transactions using USDC grew 580% year-over-year to $9.6 trillion in Q3 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Circle aims to build a full-stack Internet financial platform, focusing on blockchain networks, digital assets, and application utilities [5][8] - The company is exploring the launch of a native token on the Arc network to drive utility, incentives, and governance [10][18] - Circle continues to expand its stablecoin network across more chains, with five new chain launches and a total of 28 supported chains [10][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth of USDC circulation and the overall stablecoin market, driven by regulatory clarity and technological advancements [26][43] - The company is focused on building partnerships with quality participants to enhance the value of its network [32][60] - Management does not provide detailed quarterly guidance but has increased full-year guidance for other revenue to $90-$100 million [26][27] Other Important Information - The Arc public testnet launched with over 100 major participants from various sectors, indicating strong interest and collaboration [17] - The company has seen strong early momentum for Circle Payments Network, with a growing pipeline of financial institutions seeking to join [19][20] - Circle has closed three M&A deals this year, focusing on accelerating its core offerings rather than diversifying [68][69] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Circle Payments Network (CPN) pipeline and monetization - Management highlighted the focus on quality participants and operational capabilities for CPN, emphasizing the importance of meaningful flows [30][32] - Monetization will focus on growing the network rather than extracting immediate value, with potential for small fees in the future [34][35] Question: Reaction to Fed's involvement in payments and crypto - Management expressed alignment with the Fed's view, stating that Circle's infrastructure is fundamental to the emerging on-chain financial system [40][41] Question: Market share gains and regulatory impact - Management noted that growth in market share is driven by regulatory clarity and advancements in technology, leading to increased adoption by major financial institutions [42][43] Question: Exploration of a native token for Arc - Management discussed the potential benefits of a native token for Arc, focusing on stakeholder incentives and governance [48][50] Question: Demand-side insights and M&A interest - Management indicated that strong direct liquidity and efficient capital movement are critical for firms looking to build on stablecoin payments [65][68] Question: Subscription revenue growth and transaction revenue decline - Management explained that subscription revenue growth is driven by blockchain partnerships, while the decline in transaction revenue was due to a spike in the previous quarter related to redemptions [84][85]

稳定币发行商Circle第三季度总营收及储备收入7.4亿美元，市场预期7.073亿美元；第三季度调整后 EBITDA 1.66亿美元，市场预期1.325亿美元。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

全球最大稳定币发行商Tether正在从汇丰控股聘请两名全球最资深的贵金属交易员。知情人士透露，汇 丰银行全球金属交易主管Vincent Domien将在未来几个月内加入Tether，同时加入的还有欧洲、中东和 非洲贵金属发行主管Mathew O'Neill。近年来，Tether积极扩大其在贵金属领域的版图，作为其超过 1800亿美元储备资产的一部分。 ...