TSMC (2330.TW) Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Ticker**: 2330.TW - **Market Cap**: NT$38.5 trillion / $1.3 trillion - **Enterprise Value**: NT$36.8 trillion / $1.2 trillion - **12-Month Price Target**: NT$1,720.00 - **Current Price**: NT$1,485.00 - **Upside Potential**: 15.8% Key Highlights from the Earnings Call Industry and Market Dynamics - **AI Demand**: TSMC's management expressed a significantly more positive outlook on AI demand compared to three months ago, indicating exponential growth in AI token demand every three months. The long-term AI revenue CAGR guidance remains at mid-40%, with potential for upward revision in the future [2][25][27]. - **Non-AI Market Recovery**: The non-AI segment has shown signs of recovery after bottoming out, contributing to overall revenue growth [22]. Financial Performance - **3Q25 Results**: - Revenue: NT$989.92 billion (up 6.0% QoQ, 30.3% YoY) - Gross Profit: NT$588.54 billion (GM: 59.5%) - Operating Income: NT$500.69 billion (OpM: 50.6%) - Net Income: NT$452.30 billion (EPS: NT$17.44, up 13.6% QoQ, 39.0% YoY) [21][40]. - **4Q25 Guidance**: Revenue expected to be in the range of US$32.2-33.4 billion, with GM guidance of 59-61% and OpM of 49-51% [39]. Capacity and Technology Developments - **Advanced Packaging (CoWoS)**: TSMC is increasing capacity for CoWoS, expecting a 61% CAGR in capacity and a 54% CAGR in shipments from 2025 to 2027. The annual capacity is projected to reach 1,740k wafers by 2027 [3][31]. - **N2 Technology**: N2 is on track for volume production in 4Q25, with significant demand expected from smartphones and AI/HPC applications. Projections indicate N2 will account for 9.0% of wafer revenue in 2026, higher than N3's initial ramp-up share [23][24]. Financial Guidance Revisions - **Revenue Guidance**: TSMC raised its 2025 revenue guidance to mid-30% YoY growth (in USD), up from 30% previously, driven by strong AI demand [4][22]. - **Capex Guidance**: Slightly increased to US$40-42 billion from US$38-42 billion, with a reduction in GM dilution guidance from overseas fab expansion to 1-2 percentage points [4]. Earnings Revisions - **EPS Revisions**: EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised by 4.9%, 6.9%, and 8.5% respectively, reflecting stronger 3Q25 results and favorable FX rates [44][45]. Risks and Considerations - **Potential Upside in AI Revenue**: Management indicated that while the AI revenue CAGR guidance remains unchanged, there is potential for upward revision, with further details expected in early 2026 [25][27]. - **Market Conditions**: Investors should consider the potential impact of macroeconomic conditions and competition in the semiconductor industry on TSMC's performance [8]. Conclusion TSMC's earnings call highlighted robust growth driven by AI demand, a recovery in non-AI markets, and significant advancements in technology and capacity. The company has raised its revenue and EPS guidance, reflecting a strong outlook for the coming years.

Summary of TSMC (2330.TW) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Ticker**: 2330.TW - **Market Cap**: NT$33.7 trillion / $1.1 trillion - **Enterprise Value**: NT$32.0 trillion / $1.0 trillion - **12-Month Price Target**: NT$1,600 (up from NT$1,370) [40][41] Key Industry Insights - **AI Demand**: AI is expected to be a significant growth driver for TSMC, with Nvidia projecting the AI infrastructure market to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, implying a 42.3% CAGR from $600 billion in 2025 [2][23]. - **Revenue Growth**: TSMC's total revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of at least 17.2% from 2026 to 2030, even with muted non-AI growth [2][24]. Financial Performance and Forecasts - **Earnings Revisions**: TSMC's earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised by 2-9%, reflecting higher N2 capacity and favorable foreign exchange rates [1][36]. - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: NT$3,695.5 billion - 2026E: NT$4,307.5 billion - 2027E: NT$5,187.1 billion [4][16]. - **Gross Margin**: Expected to improve to 58.5% in 2025, 58.2% in 2026, and remain at 58.2% in 2027 [22][36]. Capacity and Demand Insights - **N2 Capacity**: Revised up to 1,230k wafers in 2027, driven by demand from AI and HPC customers [1][20]. - **Capex**: Increased to $44 billion for 2026, reflecting higher N2 capacity [21][36]. Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratio**: Projected to be 19.6 in 2025, decreasing to 15.3 by 2027 [10]. - **EPS Growth**: Expected to grow from NT$45.25 in 2024 to NT$84.84 in 2027 [4][16]. - **Dividend Yield**: Projected to increase from 1.9% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2027 [4]. Strategic Outlook - **Long-term Growth**: TSMC is positioned to capture long-term structural growth opportunities in sectors such as 5G, AI, HPC, and EV [41]. - **Market Position**: TSMC's technology leadership and execution capabilities are expected to enhance its competitive position against peers [41]. Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: The company maintains a Buy rating with a target price of NT$1,600, reflecting a 22.6% upside potential [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC (2330.TW) with a 12-month price target of NT$1,190.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.5% from the current price of NT$847.00 [1] Core Insights - TSMC's 2025 outlook is better than previously feared, with the company maintaining its full-year revenue and capex guidance despite concerns over potential end demand slowdown due to tariffs [2][19] - The company has not engaged in discussions regarding joint ventures or technology transfers, alleviating investor concerns that have affected valuations [2] - There are incremental negatives regarding gross margin (GM) guidance, with expectations of GM dilution widening to 3-4 percentage points due to overseas expansion and inflationary pressures [3][21] Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for TSMC are as follows: NT$2,894.31 million for 2024, NT$3,655.51 million for 2025, NT$4,192.55 million for 2026, and NT$5,035.09 million for 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 33.9% in 2024 and 26.3% in 2025 [6][18] - EPS estimates are NT$45.25 for 2024, NT$59.07 for 2025, NT$66.09 for 2026, and NT$78.06 for 2027, with a projected EPS growth of 39.9% in 2024 and 30.5% in 2025 [6][18] Margin and Profitability - The report indicates a slight decrease in GM forecast for 2027, revised down to 57.1% from 57.8%, due to higher operational costs and inflation [3][21] - EBITDA margins are projected to be 68.6% in 2024, 67.9% in 2025, and 68.8% in 2026, with net income margins expected to be 40.5% in 2024 and 41.9% in 2025 [13][18] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - TSMC's market capitalization is NT$22.0 trillion (approximately $675.7 billion), with an enterprise value of NT$20.1 trillion (approximately $618.7 billion) [5] - The company is ranked third in M&A within the semiconductor industry, indicating a strong competitive position [5] Capital Expenditure and Investment Strategy - TSMC's capex guidance for 2025 is set between US$38-42 billion, reflecting ongoing investments to meet robust demand, particularly in AI-related sectors [19][36] - The company is accelerating its expansion in the US, with plans to build multiple wafer fabs and advanced packaging facilities to cater to US-based customers [37]