Summary of China Property Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property Sector - **Key Focus**: Market expectations, policy changes, sales performance, and investment opportunities Core Insights 1. **Investor Positioning**: Many investors in Hong Kong, Singapore, and overseas have been underweight in the China property sector, while sectors like metals, mining, tech, and healthcare are well-owned. There is a shift towards increasing exposure in the property sector due to fear of missing out on potential recovery [1][2] 2. **Sales and Investment Trends**: Secondary sales improved in January, with a month-on-month increase compared to December. However, new home sales remain weak, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 30% expected to persist into Q1 2026 due to last year's high base [2][4] 3. **Policy Easing Expectations**: Positive market sentiment in January was driven by expectations of policy easing, including VAT cuts and adjustments to down payment requirements for commercial properties. The easing of the "three red lines" policy indicates that deleveraging targets may have been met [2][15] 4. **Opportunistic Window**: There is a belief that an opportunistic window may exist from January to March before the National People's Congress meeting and FY25 earnings reports, suggesting potential for strategic investments during this period [2] 5. **Stock Picks**: Recommended stocks include China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI), Jinmao, and Greentown, which are expected to benefit from land acquisition growth and ample saleable resources in 2026. CR Land is noted for its strong fundamentals but is already well-owned [3] 6. **Secondary Market Activity**: Secondary transaction volumes improved to approximately 26,038 units in the week ending January 25, 2026, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase. This is seen as a positive sign for market confidence [3][9] 7. **New Home Sales Performance**: New home sales increased by 15% week-on-week but are still down approximately 30% year-on-year. The primary sales trend remains uncertain and is not yet sustainable [4][11] 8. **Land Acquisition Trends**: Significant increases in land acquisition costs were noted for several companies, with Jinmao seeing a 78% increase year-on-year. In contrast, Vanke and Longfor reported substantial declines in land acquisition values [17] Additional Important Points - **Policy Support**: Recent supportive policies include lowering the minimum down payment for commercial property mortgages and extending tax refund policies for home buyers [15][16] - **Market Sentiment**: The market's positive response to policy changes indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards the property sector, despite ongoing challenges in new home sales [2][4] - **Valuation Insights**: The sector's valuations are being closely monitored, with recommendations varying from buy to neutral based on individual company fundamentals [20] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the China property sector, highlighting both opportunities and ongoing challenges.

Vi e w p o i n t | 29 Jan 2026 01:59:47 ET │ 13 pages China Property Three Red Lines to Ease but Unlikely to Leverage Up for Investment in ST CITI'S TAKE Policies pacing up: talk of easing "three red lines" — Property firms are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators to authorities (Bloomberg, 29 Jan). We note the "three red lines" were implemented since Aug'2020 in an aim to limit debt and encourage sector deleveraging. Indeed, after the Qiushi Journal article (link) that set a supportive ...

Summary of China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, highlighting significant declines in property sales, construction activities, and investment trends as of December 2025 and forecasts for early 2026. Key Market Indicators - **Primary Sales**: - Volume declined by **-16%** year-over-year (yoy) and value by **-24%** yoy in December 2025, leading to a full-year decline of **-9%** in volume and **-13%** in value [2][10] - **New Starts**: - New construction starts fell by **-19%** yoy in December, with a full-year decline of **-20%** [10][11] - **Completions**: - Completions also saw a decline of **-18%** yoy, which was below expectations [10][11] - **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - FAI reached its lowest level since 2012, declining by **-36%** yoy in December and **-17%** for the full year [10][11] - **Secondary Transactions**: - Secondary transaction volume in 15 cities dropped by **-30%** yoy in December, leading to a full-year decline of **-2%** [10][11] Price Trends - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: - The nationwide ASP in December was **-0.4%** month-over-month (mom) and **-9.5%** yoy, indicating continued price weakness [10][24] - **Secondary ASP**: - The secondary ASP index also fell by **-0.7%** mom in December [10][24] Developer Activity - Developers' land acquisition pace slowed significantly, with only **8%** of contract sales allocated to new land purchases in December [11][61] - The average project-level gross profit margins (GPM) for developers was **25%**, with a focus on Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities [11][61] Future Expectations (Jan-Feb 2026) - Continued price weakness is anticipated, with expected declines in sales volume and value in the mid-single digits (MSD) to high-single digits (HSD) yoy [3][12] - Completions and new starts are expected to decline further, reflecting ongoing liquidity challenges for developers [18][19] Policy Considerations - Potential reforms in the Housing Provident Fund and large-scale mortgage interest subsidies are being monitored as they could impact market stability [4][10] - The report highlights the need for policy support to address mortgage delinquencies and stimulate demand through urban renewal programs [4][10] Additional Insights - The report notes a significant decline in developer financing, with new funding sources down **-41%** mom and **-46%** yoy in December [37] - The land market remains under pressure, with land sales volume and value declining by **-12%** and **-11%** yoy, respectively [30][10] Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing significant challenges, with declining sales, construction, and investment activities. The outlook for early 2026 remains cautious, with expectations of continued price weakness and the need for supportive policy measures to stabilize the market.

Core Insights - The Shanghai bulk trading market has experienced a continuous decline in transaction value for four consecutive years, with a reported total of 424 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 40% [1] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a further decline, with only 67 billion yuan in transactions, marking a 63% year-on-year drop and a 57% quarter-on-quarter decrease [1] Market Performance - The average transaction price in the Shanghai bulk market fell to approximately 5.6 billion yuan, with the fourth quarter dropping to 4.8 billion yuan [1] - More than 50% of transactions in 2025 were below 3 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards lower-value deals [1] Property Type Analysis - Office and research office properties remained the most popular, accounting for 185 billion yuan or 43.6% of the total market [2] - The commercial sector held a 16.6% transaction share, slightly higher than the apartment and residential sectors at 16.5% [2] - The hotel sector accounted for 5% of transactions, with notable deals including the "zero-dollar acquisition" of the Andaz Hotel in Shanghai [2][3] Buyer Composition - Domestic buyers dominated the market, accounting for 97% of transaction value, while foreign buyers completed only three acquisitions but sold assets totaling approximately 129 billion yuan [3] - Self-use buyers emerged as a significant market force, contributing around 60 billion yuan or 26% of total transactions, primarily from sectors like finance, TMT, and consumer [7] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market is witnessing an increase in judicial auction transactions, which accounted for a quarter of total deals, reflecting underlying debt pressures on certain assets [7] - There are currently 140 billion yuan in bulk transactions at the draft stage, expected to close in the first half of 2026, with a focus on stable, smaller-scale transactions [8] - The expansion of public REITs in sectors like hotels and quality office spaces is anticipated to enhance exit and revitalization channels for existing assets in 2026 [8]

Summary of China Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, highlighting significant declines in various metrics related to real estate investment and sales. Key Points Real Estate Investment (REI) Trends - **November REI** experienced a record drop of **30.3% YoY**, marking the sharpest decline on record, with a total of **RMB 0.5 trillion**, the lowest monthly figure since April 2012 [1][11] - **Completion rates** fell by **26% YoY** in November, slightly improved from **28%** in October [1] - **Starts** decreased by **28% YoY**, consistent with a **29%** decline in October [1] - **Residential sales** dropped by **28% YoY**, the largest single-month decline since May 2024 [1] - The **70-cities price index** for new homes decreased by **2.8% YoY** in November, while secondary homes saw a **5.7% YoY** decline [1] Market Dynamics - **Secondary market sales** in 18 key cities fell by **22% YoY** in November, with average weekly volume showing a **13% MoM** increase, driven by price cuts [2] - Listings in 39 cities remained stable, but cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an saw increased listings, putting pressure on prices [2] - A survey indicated only **9%** of depositors expect housing prices to rise in 2026, a historical low [2] Future Projections - The outlook for 2026 suggests a **structural decline** in the market unless liquidity improves, with expectations of: - **REI** down **13% YoY** - National sales down **11% YoY**, with residential sales projected at **RMB 6.8 trillion** [3] - New home average selling prices (ASP) expected to fall by **3% YoY** [3] - Starts anticipated to drop to levels last seen in 2003, with a **15% YoY** decline [3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The **Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)** indicated a more proactive policy tone, with potential demand-side easing measures expected in Q4 2025 [4] - Urban renewals and REIT approvals are likely to accelerate, but significant changes in home price expectations are not anticipated due to ample supply [4] - Monitoring for targeted monetary easing or pro-leverage initiatives is advised, though the likelihood remains low [4] Market Sentiment and Investment Recommendations - The sector's share prices corrected in early December amid debates over weak sales and expectations of policy-driven rebounds, particularly following Vanke's debt extension [5] - Anticipated earnings downgrades in December and January for well-known names in the sector [5] - Luxury mall retail sales are expected to maintain a positive trend in Q4 after outperforming in Q3 [5] - Recommended stocks include **Jinmao, C&D, and CRL** as top picks [5] Additional Insights - The **macro environment** shows mixed signals, with November exports beating expectations at **5.9% YoY**, while retail sales decelerated to **1.3% YoY** despite a higher CPI of **0.7%** [1] - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) remains weak, down **12%** YoY, with a cumulative decline of **2.6%** for the first eleven months [1] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, emphasizing the significant challenges and potential policy responses.

Summary of China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, highlighting significant declines in various metrics such as average selling prices (ASP), primary sales, new starts, and completions in November 2025 compared to previous years. Key Market Indicators - **Primary Sales**: - Volume declined by **17%** year-over-year (yoy) - Value declined by **25%** yoy, which was largely in line with expectations [2][11] - **New Starts**: - Fell sharply by **28%** yoy, marking the second consecutive month of decline [11] - **Completions**: - Declined by **25%** yoy, undershooting estimates [11] - **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - Reached its lowest level since 2012, declining by **30%** yoy [2][11] - **Secondary Transaction Volumes**: - Decreased by **24%** yoy [2][11] Price Trends - **Average Selling Prices (ASP)**: - Nationwide ASP declined by **9.5%** yoy in November [21] - Primary market ASP showed a slight decline of **0.4%** month-over-month (mom), while secondary market ASP declined by **0.7%** mom [11][28] Developer Activity - Developers' land acquisition spending moderated to **21%** of contract sales in November, with an average project-level gross profit margin (GPM) of **25%** [12][71] - The land market showed signs of weakness, with land sales volume and value declining by **27%** and **37%** yoy, respectively [35] Future Expectations - For December 2025, expectations include: - Continued price weakness and a **low-teens to low-twenties %** yoy decline in sales volume and value [3][13] - A potential positive yoy for completions, but a steeper decline in new starts [3][13] - Secondary transaction volumes expected to decline by **high-twenties %** yoy [3][13] Policy and Market Sentiment - Key areas to watch include: - Potential large-scale mortgage interest subsidies and commercial mortgage rate cuts [4][8] - Removal of housing purchase restrictions in core districts of Tier-1 cities [4][8] - Signs of rent stabilization in high-tier cities [4][8] - The overall demand score for the property market was **37 out of 100**, indicating a challenging environment for developers and homebuyers [53][55] Developer Liquidity - Developers are facing a funding gap estimated at **Rmb3.2 trillion** for 2025, with liquidity remaining tight [54][57] - New funding sources for developers increased by **21%** mom and **29%** yoy in November, indicating some recovery in financing [63] Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing significant challenges, with declining sales, prices, and construction activity. Developers are under pressure due to liquidity issues and a challenging market environment. Future policy measures and market sentiment will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the market moving forward.

Core Insights - The best investment of Howie Mandel is a commercial property that he rents out to creative and tech companies, which he considers a good investment from both real estate and career perspectives [2] - Mandel has built a significant real estate portfolio, particularly in Las Vegas, where he initially invested in warehouses before shifting focus to gas stations [3][4] Real Estate Investment Strategy - Mandel began investing in Las Vegas during the 1980s, capitalizing on the rapid growth of the area and the tax benefits of Nevada [4] - He identified opportunities in commercial real estate by purchasing land in areas that were set to develop, particularly where home developers were buying land for residential projects [5][6] Gas Station Business - The gas station business became a major component of Mandel's investment strategy, as he recognized the need for services in newly developed residential areas [3][6] - He strategically built gas stations and accompanying retail spaces, such as strip malls and convenience stores, to serve the growing population in these neighborhoods [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **China Residential Market**: Developers are increasingly negative due to accelerated price declines, leading to margin and earnings pressure in 2025 and 2026. BEKE anticipates a 30% YoY decline in existing home GTV in Q4 2025 and a 13% and 6% decline in existing and new home transaction GTV in 2026 respectively [2][19]. - **Hong Kong Residential Market**: Developers report a strong recovery in transaction volume driven by rate cuts, rising rental demand, and increased investment from mainland Chinese buyers. There is potential for gradual price increases in new project launches [3]. - **Retail Sector**: High-end malls in China and Hong Kong are experiencing better momentum in 2H25, attributed to positive wealth effects from stock markets and rising gold prices. However, mass market retail remains challenging due to consumption downgrades and e-commerce penetration [4]. - **Office Market in Hong Kong**: There are signs of recovery in the Central office market, driven by increased leasing inquiries from the financial sector and IPO-related services [5]. Company-Specific Insights - **CR Land**: Reported a 17% YoY decline in contract sales gross value to Rmb170bn and expects downward pressure on earnings in 2025 due to lack of one-off gains [8]. - **COLI**: Experienced a 21% YoY decline in contract sales gross value to Rmb189bn, with expectations of launching large projects to mitigate sales decline [9]. - **Greentown China**: Reported a 6% YoY decline in contract sales to Rmb120bn, with expectations of slight profit in 2025 but continued pressure from vintage inventory [10]. - **Poly Developments**: Focused on liquidity and destocking, with a significant portion of sales coming from vintage inventory [11]. - **CR Mixc**: Forecasted double-digit core net profit growth for FY2025, supported by strong same-store sales growth [15]. - **Beike (KE Holdings)**: Expects a 30% YoY decline in GTV for existing homes in Q4 2025, but maintains a guidance of Rmb7bn adjusted operating profit for 2026 [19][20]. Market Preferences - **Stock Preferences**: Preference for HK developers like Henderson and Sino due to the bottoming of the HK residential market, and for retail properties like CR Mixc and Swire Properties due to recovery in mainland China retail [6]. Risks and Valuation - **Valuation Methods**: P/BV methods are used for mainland China property developers, while discount to NAV is used for Hong Kong developers and landlords [31]. - **Key Risks**: For Hong Kong, risks include weakening macroeconomic conditions and increased housing supply. For mainland China, risks involve government policies restricting demand and tight financing for developers [32]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious optimism among developers in Hong Kong regarding sales momentum and potential price increases, while mainland developers face significant challenges due to declining sales and margins [3][4][5][8][9][10][11].

Summary of China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, highlighting significant declines in new property starts, sales, and construction activities, indicating a downturn in the sector. Key Points Market Performance - **New starts** in October 2025 fell to the lowest monthly level (excluding January and February) since the current downturn began [2][9] - **Primary sales** volume and value declined by **19%** and **24%** year-over-year (YoY), respectively, while construction activities (completion and new starts) plunged nearly **30%** YoY [2][9] - **Secondary sales volume** also fell short of expectations, contributing to a broader weakening in market sentiment and income expectations [2][9] Price Trends - The **average selling price (ASP)** for properties continued to decline, with primary ASPs down **0.5%** month-over-month (MoM) and secondary ASPs down **0.7%** MoM in October [9][31] - The **ASP** in tier-1 cities showed a **0.3%** decline for primary and **0.9%** for secondary markets, indicating a divergence in pricing trends [9][31] Future Expectations - For November 2025, expectations include: 1. Continued price weakness, especially in secondary ASPs across all cities [3][11] 2. An expansion in the YoY decline for primary transaction volume and value, with new starts remaining weak [3][11] 3. A narrowing trend in secondary transaction volume YoY, but still recording substantial declines [3][11] 4. A further decline in land sales volume and a potential negative YoY change in land sales value [3][11] Developer Insights - Developers' land acquisition profitability improved slightly month-over-month in October, with land acquisition spending averaging **28%** of contract sales, down from **54%** in September [2][10] - The report notes that developers are likely to be less aggressive in land banking for the remainder of the year, having largely met their full-year land replenishment plans [18][10] Government Policies and Market Sentiment - The report highlights ongoing discussions regarding the removal of housing purchase restrictions in core districts of tier-1 cities, which could positively impact home purchases [4][10] - There is a noted deterioration in the demand-side strength score, which dropped to **37 out of 100**, indicating a challenging environment for home purchases and secondary market performance [53][55] Construction and Investment Trends - Construction activities are expected to see a high single-digit percentage decline YoY for completions and a **30-40%** decline for new starts in November [17][11] - Developers are expected to focus on smaller projects with better ASP visibility and easier product positioning, rather than larger land parcels requiring phased development [18][10] Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed summary of key market indicators, including: - **GFA sold**: **61 million sqm** in October, down **18.8%** YoY - **Property sales**: **Rmb 0.6 trillion**, down **24.3%** YoY - **ASP**: **Rmb 9,723/sqm**, down **6.8%** YoY - **New starts**: **37 million sqm**, down **29.5%** YoY - **Completions**: **37 million sqm**, down **28.2%** YoY [20][29] Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing significant challenges, with declining sales, construction activities, and prices. The outlook for November remains cautious, with expectations of continued weakness in both primary and secondary markets. Developers are adjusting their strategies in response to market conditions, and government policies may play a crucial role in shaping future demand.

Core Viewpoint - The US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to initiate a cycle of policy easing, potentially increasing global property investments, although the impact on mainland China and Hong Kong may be limited due to fundamental and geopolitical challenges [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Investment Trends - Analysts predict that the Fed's quarter-point rate reduction will likely lead to a series of further cuts, encouraging capital to flow back into property investments [2]. - The Federal Reserve reduced its target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4 to 4.25 percent, marking the beginning of a rate-cut cycle anticipated to continue into the next year [5]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed suit, lowering its base rate by a quarter point to 4.5 percent, the lowest level since December 2022 [7]. Group 2: Market Competitiveness and Investment Focus - JLL's global bid intensity index showed an increase in the third quarter, indicating a resurgence in competitive bidding for property investments after a challenging second quarter [3]. - Investors are currently focusing on various segments, including residential or multi-housing, industrial and logistics, retail, and prime offices in key gateway cities [4]. - Further interest rate cuts are expected to bolster investment activity in commercial property markets by lowering financing costs and the benchmark for institutional investments [6].