Summary of China Resources Land Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Land (CR Land) - **Industry**: Real Estate Development in China Key Points and Arguments Business Model Transformation - CR Land is undergoing a five-stage business model transformation due to a shrinking new home market and the development of public and private REITs [2][3] - **Stage 1**: Increasing earnings from recurring income business, expected to rise from 41% in 2024 to over 50% by 2029 [12] - **Stage 2**: More assets to be spun off to REITs, with 80% of malls in tier 1-2 cities available for spin-off, estimated at Rmb256 billion NAV [15] - **Stage 3**: Reduced capital redeployment into development property (DP) business due to declining new home sales [20] - **Stage 4**: Potential change in dividend policy from a percentage of earnings to absolute DPS, enhancing dividend visibility [24][25] - **Stage 5**: Evolving into asset management and investment management, similar to Link REIT and Goodman fund models [29][31] Valuation and Market Position - CR Land is trading at a 50% discount to NAV and 8.1x 2026E PE, indicating it is underappreciated by the market [1][8] - Price target raised by 14% from HK$37.00 to HK$42.00, based on a 36% discount to SOTP-based 2026E NAV [4][40] - Compared to peers, CR Land's 2026E dividend yield is 4.6%, higher than the sector average of 3.0% [4][42] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Expected revenues to increase from Rmb207,061 million in 2022 to Rmb251,137 million in 2023 [5] - **Net Earnings**: Projected net earnings to remain stable around Rmb27,000 million in 2022 and Rmb27,770 million in 2023 [5] - **DPS**: Expected to be Rmb1.40 in 2022, increasing to Rmb1.44 in 2023 [5] Investment Opportunities - The transformation creates uncertainty, which may present investment opportunities if CR Land follows a positive development path [3] - The potential cancellation of the presale system could further reduce capital needs in the DP business, allowing for more capital allocation towards dividends [20] Risks and Considerations - The ongoing downcycle in the residential property market may continue to affect investor sentiment towards CR Land [8] - The company’s reliance on the DP business, which only accounts for 21% of NAV, raises concerns about capital deployment in this segment [8] Additional Insights - CR Land's dividend policy currently stands at 37% of core earnings, with a significant portion generated from the DP business [8][26] - The company has plans to spin off additional assets to public REITs, enhancing capital recycling and supporting core earnings growth [15][11] Conclusion - CR Land is positioned for a significant transformation that could unlock value through strategic asset management and a shift in dividend policy. The current market undervaluation presents potential investment opportunities, contingent on successful execution of its business model transformation.

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Chengdu is experiencing significant changes, including new policies aimed at promoting stability and health in the market, as well as fluctuations in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand properties [7][8]. Group 1: Land Market - No residential land was sold in Chengdu this week, but five residential land plots are scheduled for auction on August 8, covering a total area of approximately 210.8 acres [2]. Group 2: Transaction Data - Chengdu's new housing transactions from July 17 to July 23 showed a total of 1,272 units sold, with a total area of 34,165.33 m² on July 17, peaking at 36574.02 m² with 289 units sold on July 23 [3]. - The total number of second-hand housing transactions in Chengdu for the same period was 4,968 units, with a total area of 473,342.07 m², indicating an increase compared to the previous week [4]. Group 3: Pre-sale Information - A total of 21 pre-sale permits were issued in the greater Chengdu area this week, with 10 projects including residential units. Notably, a project in Longquan District launched six batches of units, with prices around 3 million yuan, which sold out quickly [5]. Group 4: Major Events - Chengdu's new real estate policy, effective from July 21, includes 17 measures to enhance market stability, such as gradually lifting housing sales restrictions and reducing the down payment ratio for second homes to 20% [7][8]. - The People's Bank of China reported a slight increase in real estate loan growth, with a total balance of 53.33 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [9]. - A report indicated that financing for 65 typical real estate companies reached 46.442 billion yuan in June, marking a new high for 2025, amidst ongoing debt restructuring efforts [10].

Market Overview - Fuzhou's real estate data in the first half of the year was disappointing despite a series of policies introduced at the beginning of the year, indicating that market recovery will be increasingly difficult as policy effects wane and the industry remains sluggish [2] - The recovery of the market still relies on the revival of the first-time homebuyer segment, as the improvement in transaction volume for improvement housing contrasts with the poor performance of first-time buyer housing [2] - The State Council's meeting in June 2025 emphasized stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks to promote a rebound in the real estate market [2] Land Market Analysis - Fuzhou's third and fourth land auctions in June 2025 concluded with a total transaction amount of 10.272 billion yuan, involving 16 plots, including 6 residential land plots and 10 plots for resettlement and commercial use, indicating a healthy and stable land market [3] - The land auction results reflect a significant participation from state-owned enterprises, with most plots acquired by local state-owned companies, showcasing a trend of state-led market dynamics [4] Real Estate Market Analysis - The Fuzhou real estate market in June 2025 exhibited a highly differentiated state, with prices primarily concentrated in the range of 10,000 to 25,000 yuan per square meter, while high-end projects were scarce but priced extremely high [6] - The market structure is characterized by an "olive-shaped" distribution, where the first-time buyer market dominates, and the second-hand housing market has become more active than the new housing market [7][8] New Housing Market - In June 2025, Fuzhou signed 2,811 new residential units, a significant increase of 33.98% from May, although excluding affordable housing data shows little change in the new housing market [8] - The majority of new housing transactions were concentrated in the districts of Cangshan and Jin'an, which accounted for a significant portion of the total signed units [8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand housing in Fuzhou in June 2025 was 21,900 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.46% month-on-month [9] - The second-hand housing market in Fuzhou is influenced by the overall market environment, leading to a downward price trend [9] Regional Development Disparities - The central urban area, such as Gulou District, maintains high land prices due to concentrated resources, while areas like Cangshan show minimal price fluctuations, indicating strong value retention [5][11] - The market's performance in suburban areas like Mawei reflects challenges in property absorption, with lower transaction volumes and price stability [11] Summary and Outlook - The policy direction set by the State Council in June 2025 is expected to boost market confidence, with potential for more policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market in the second half of the year [12] - If favorable policies are effectively implemented, Fuzhou's real estate market may see a rebound, with improved inventory turnover and gradually restored market confidence [12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights specific companies with "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations [49][50]. Core Insights - The primary market is experiencing a continued decline, with new home sales volume down 30% week-over-week and 26% year-over-year, while tier-3 and Central & Western cities are outperforming [5][9]. - Secondary market transactions are showing a slight decline, with average sales down 2% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year, indicating negative price appreciation expectations from agents and homeowners [26][28]. - The focus on urban renewal policies is expected to positively impact the market, particularly through demand-side stimulus measures such as urban village redevelopment [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - New homes sales volume decreased by 30% week-over-week and 26% year-over-year, with tier-3 and Central & Western cities outperforming [5]. - Secondary transactions were down 2% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year, with negative price expectations from agents and homeowners [26]. - Year-to-date, primary gross floor area (GFA) sold is down 1% year-over-year, while secondary GFA sold is up 16% year-over-year [8][28]. Inventory and Completions - Inventory balance decreased by 0.1% week-over-week and 3.9% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.0 [36]. - Completions are expected to decline by mid-to-high teens year-over-year for June 2025, with a projected 10% decline for the full year [41]. Valuation and Developer Performance - Offshore developers saw an average share price increase of 6% week-over-week, outperforming the MSCI China index [49]. - Onshore developers averaged a 2% increase week-over-week, with specific companies like China Jinmao and Longfor receiving "Buy" ratings [49][50]. - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for offshore and onshore coverage is at 0.5X for 2025E, indicating a significant discount to net asset value (NAV) [49].