16 December 2025 | 7:45AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY MONTHLY TRACKER Another month of slippage, and likely carry forward in Dec Nov 2025 nationwide ASP decline persisted and primary sales dropped -17%/-25% yoy by vol/value (largely inline). New starts fell sharply for the second consecutive month, near -30% yoy in Nov, and completions and FAI undershot our estimates at -25%/-30% yoy. Nov FAI reached the lowest level since 2012 (excl. Jan-Feb which are reported on a combined level). Secondary transac ...

Core Insights - The best investment of Howie Mandel is a commercial property that he rents out to creative and tech companies, which he considers a good investment from both real estate and career perspectives [2] - Mandel has built a significant real estate portfolio, particularly in Las Vegas, where he initially invested in warehouses before shifting focus to gas stations [3][4] Real Estate Investment Strategy - Mandel began investing in Las Vegas during the 1980s, capitalizing on the rapid growth of the area and the tax benefits of Nevada [4] - He identified opportunities in commercial real estate by purchasing land in areas that were set to develop, particularly where home developers were buying land for residential projects [5][6] Gas Station Business - The gas station business became a major component of Mandel's investment strategy, as he recognized the need for services in newly developed residential areas [3][6] - He strategically built gas stations and accompanying retail spaces, such as strip malls and convenience stores, to serve the growing population in these neighborhoods [7]

ab 28 November 2025 Global Research China and HK Property Takeaways from 19 companies in Property Corporate Day China residential: accelerating price decline 19 property companies attended our APAC Financial, Fintech, Property Corporate Day. In China's residential market, most developers turned more negative compared to three months ago when they reported 1H25 results, due to accelerated property price declines in the past few months. Hence, they see margin and earnings pressure in 2025 (potential for more ...

Summary of China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, highlighting significant declines in new property starts, sales, and construction activities, indicating a downturn in the sector. Key Points Market Performance - **New starts** in October 2025 fell to the lowest monthly level (excluding January and February) since the current downturn began [2][9] - **Primary sales** volume and value declined by **19%** and **24%** year-over-year (YoY), respectively, while construction activities (completion and new starts) plunged nearly **30%** YoY [2][9] - **Secondary sales volume** also fell short of expectations, contributing to a broader weakening in market sentiment and income expectations [2][9] Price Trends - The **average selling price (ASP)** for properties continued to decline, with primary ASPs down **0.5%** month-over-month (MoM) and secondary ASPs down **0.7%** MoM in October [9][31] - The **ASP** in tier-1 cities showed a **0.3%** decline for primary and **0.9%** for secondary markets, indicating a divergence in pricing trends [9][31] Future Expectations - For November 2025, expectations include: 1. Continued price weakness, especially in secondary ASPs across all cities [3][11] 2. An expansion in the YoY decline for primary transaction volume and value, with new starts remaining weak [3][11] 3. A narrowing trend in secondary transaction volume YoY, but still recording substantial declines [3][11] 4. A further decline in land sales volume and a potential negative YoY change in land sales value [3][11] Developer Insights - Developers' land acquisition profitability improved slightly month-over-month in October, with land acquisition spending averaging **28%** of contract sales, down from **54%** in September [2][10] - The report notes that developers are likely to be less aggressive in land banking for the remainder of the year, having largely met their full-year land replenishment plans [18][10] Government Policies and Market Sentiment - The report highlights ongoing discussions regarding the removal of housing purchase restrictions in core districts of tier-1 cities, which could positively impact home purchases [4][10] - There is a noted deterioration in the demand-side strength score, which dropped to **37 out of 100**, indicating a challenging environment for home purchases and secondary market performance [53][55] Construction and Investment Trends - Construction activities are expected to see a high single-digit percentage decline YoY for completions and a **30-40%** decline for new starts in November [17][11] - Developers are expected to focus on smaller projects with better ASP visibility and easier product positioning, rather than larger land parcels requiring phased development [18][10] Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed summary of key market indicators, including: - **GFA sold**: **61 million sqm** in October, down **18.8%** YoY - **Property sales**: **Rmb 0.6 trillion**, down **24.3%** YoY - **ASP**: **Rmb 9,723/sqm**, down **6.8%** YoY - **New starts**: **37 million sqm**, down **29.5%** YoY - **Completions**: **37 million sqm**, down **28.2%** YoY [20][29] Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing significant challenges, with declining sales, construction activities, and prices. The outlook for November remains cautious, with expectations of continued weakness in both primary and secondary markets. Developers are adjusting their strategies in response to market conditions, and government policies may play a crucial role in shaping future demand.

Core Viewpoint - The US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to initiate a cycle of policy easing, potentially increasing global property investments, although the impact on mainland China and Hong Kong may be limited due to fundamental and geopolitical challenges [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Investment Trends - Analysts predict that the Fed's quarter-point rate reduction will likely lead to a series of further cuts, encouraging capital to flow back into property investments [2]. - The Federal Reserve reduced its target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4 to 4.25 percent, marking the beginning of a rate-cut cycle anticipated to continue into the next year [5]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed suit, lowering its base rate by a quarter point to 4.5 percent, the lowest level since December 2022 [7]. Group 2: Market Competitiveness and Investment Focus - JLL's global bid intensity index showed an increase in the third quarter, indicating a resurgence in competitive bidding for property investments after a challenging second quarter [3]. - Investors are currently focusing on various segments, including residential or multi-housing, industrial and logistics, retail, and prime offices in key gateway cities [4]. - Further interest rate cuts are expected to bolster investment activity in commercial property markets by lowering financing costs and the benchmark for institutional investments [6].

Core Insights - The REIT sector is experiencing improvement due to moderating interest rates and declining inflation, with several REITs making acquisitions to enhance their asset base and increase distributions for investors [1] Group 1: CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS) - CLAS is Asia-Pacific's largest lodging trust with total assets of S$8.8 billion and a portfolio of 101 properties across 16 countries [2] - CLAS has acquired three freehold rental housing properties in Japan for JPY 4 billion (approximately S$34.2 million), located in Osaka and Kyoto [2] - The projected net operating income (NOI) entry yield for this acquisition is 4%, significantly higher than the exit NOI yield of 0.4% from a previous divestment [3] - The acquisition is expected to result in a 0.3% accretion to CLAS's distribution per stapled security (DPSS) [3] - The properties have an average occupancy of 97% and will contribute to a stable income stream, with rents in Osaka and Kyoto expected to rise by 10% to 15% over the next five years [4][5] Group 2: AIMS APAC REIT (AAREIT) - AAREIT, an industrial REIT, is acquiring Framework Building for approximately S$56.65 million, projected to have an initial net property income (NPI) yield of 8.1% [6] - The acquisition is expected to add 2.5% to AAREIT's distribution per unit (DPU) if fully funded by debt [6] - The property has a total net lettable area of 16,082 square meters and is 97% occupied, with potential for value-add enhancements [7][8] Group 3: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) - CICT is acquiring 55% of the commercial component of CapitaSpring for S$1.05 billion, with an entry yield in the low-4% region [9] - The total acquisition outlay is approximately S$482.3 million, funded through a private placement of units, expected to result in a 1.1% DPU accretion [10] - Following the acquisition, CICT's pro-forma aggregate leverage is expected to rise slightly from 37.9% to 38.3% [10] Group 4: United Hampshire US REIT (UHREIT) - UHREIT owns a diversified portfolio valued at around US$731 million and recently purchased Dover Marketplace for approximately US$16.4 million, below independent valuation [11] - The acquisition is fully funded by proceeds from a previous divestment and is expected to provide a 2% uplift to UHREIT's DPU [12] - Dover Marketplace has a committed occupancy of 96.1% and a long weighted average lease expiry of 9.7 years [12]

Summary of China Resources Land Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Land (CR Land) - **Industry**: Real Estate Development in China Key Points and Arguments Business Model Transformation - CR Land is undergoing a five-stage business model transformation due to a shrinking new home market and the development of public and private REITs [2][3] - **Stage 1**: Increasing earnings from recurring income business, expected to rise from 41% in 2024 to over 50% by 2029 [12] - **Stage 2**: More assets to be spun off to REITs, with 80% of malls in tier 1-2 cities available for spin-off, estimated at Rmb256 billion NAV [15] - **Stage 3**: Reduced capital redeployment into development property (DP) business due to declining new home sales [20] - **Stage 4**: Potential change in dividend policy from a percentage of earnings to absolute DPS, enhancing dividend visibility [24][25] - **Stage 5**: Evolving into asset management and investment management, similar to Link REIT and Goodman fund models [29][31] Valuation and Market Position - CR Land is trading at a 50% discount to NAV and 8.1x 2026E PE, indicating it is underappreciated by the market [1][8] - Price target raised by 14% from HK$37.00 to HK$42.00, based on a 36% discount to SOTP-based 2026E NAV [4][40] - Compared to peers, CR Land's 2026E dividend yield is 4.6%, higher than the sector average of 3.0% [4][42] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Expected revenues to increase from Rmb207,061 million in 2022 to Rmb251,137 million in 2023 [5] - **Net Earnings**: Projected net earnings to remain stable around Rmb27,000 million in 2022 and Rmb27,770 million in 2023 [5] - **DPS**: Expected to be Rmb1.40 in 2022, increasing to Rmb1.44 in 2023 [5] Investment Opportunities - The transformation creates uncertainty, which may present investment opportunities if CR Land follows a positive development path [3] - The potential cancellation of the presale system could further reduce capital needs in the DP business, allowing for more capital allocation towards dividends [20] Risks and Considerations - The ongoing downcycle in the residential property market may continue to affect investor sentiment towards CR Land [8] - The company’s reliance on the DP business, which only accounts for 21% of NAV, raises concerns about capital deployment in this segment [8] Additional Insights - CR Land's dividend policy currently stands at 37% of core earnings, with a significant portion generated from the DP business [8][26] - The company has plans to spin off additional assets to public REITs, enhancing capital recycling and supporting core earnings growth [15][11] Conclusion - CR Land is positioned for a significant transformation that could unlock value through strategic asset management and a shift in dividend policy. The current market undervaluation presents potential investment opportunities, contingent on successful execution of its business model transformation.

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Chengdu is experiencing significant changes, including new policies aimed at promoting stability and health in the market, as well as fluctuations in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand properties [7][8]. Group 1: Land Market - No residential land was sold in Chengdu this week, but five residential land plots are scheduled for auction on August 8, covering a total area of approximately 210.8 acres [2]. Group 2: Transaction Data - Chengdu's new housing transactions from July 17 to July 23 showed a total of 1,272 units sold, with a total area of 34,165.33 m² on July 17, peaking at 36574.02 m² with 289 units sold on July 23 [3]. - The total number of second-hand housing transactions in Chengdu for the same period was 4,968 units, with a total area of 473,342.07 m², indicating an increase compared to the previous week [4]. Group 3: Pre-sale Information - A total of 21 pre-sale permits were issued in the greater Chengdu area this week, with 10 projects including residential units. Notably, a project in Longquan District launched six batches of units, with prices around 3 million yuan, which sold out quickly [5]. Group 4: Major Events - Chengdu's new real estate policy, effective from July 21, includes 17 measures to enhance market stability, such as gradually lifting housing sales restrictions and reducing the down payment ratio for second homes to 20% [7][8]. - The People's Bank of China reported a slight increase in real estate loan growth, with a total balance of 53.33 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [9]. - A report indicated that financing for 65 typical real estate companies reached 46.442 billion yuan in June, marking a new high for 2025, amidst ongoing debt restructuring efforts [10].

Market Overview - Fuzhou's real estate data in the first half of the year was disappointing despite a series of policies introduced at the beginning of the year, indicating that market recovery will be increasingly difficult as policy effects wane and the industry remains sluggish [2] - The recovery of the market still relies on the revival of the first-time homebuyer segment, as the improvement in transaction volume for improvement housing contrasts with the poor performance of first-time buyer housing [2] - The State Council's meeting in June 2025 emphasized stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks to promote a rebound in the real estate market [2] Land Market Analysis - Fuzhou's third and fourth land auctions in June 2025 concluded with a total transaction amount of 10.272 billion yuan, involving 16 plots, including 6 residential land plots and 10 plots for resettlement and commercial use, indicating a healthy and stable land market [3] - The land auction results reflect a significant participation from state-owned enterprises, with most plots acquired by local state-owned companies, showcasing a trend of state-led market dynamics [4] Real Estate Market Analysis - The Fuzhou real estate market in June 2025 exhibited a highly differentiated state, with prices primarily concentrated in the range of 10,000 to 25,000 yuan per square meter, while high-end projects were scarce but priced extremely high [6] - The market structure is characterized by an "olive-shaped" distribution, where the first-time buyer market dominates, and the second-hand housing market has become more active than the new housing market [7][8] New Housing Market - In June 2025, Fuzhou signed 2,811 new residential units, a significant increase of 33.98% from May, although excluding affordable housing data shows little change in the new housing market [8] - The majority of new housing transactions were concentrated in the districts of Cangshan and Jin'an, which accounted for a significant portion of the total signed units [8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand housing in Fuzhou in June 2025 was 21,900 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.46% month-on-month [9] - The second-hand housing market in Fuzhou is influenced by the overall market environment, leading to a downward price trend [9] Regional Development Disparities - The central urban area, such as Gulou District, maintains high land prices due to concentrated resources, while areas like Cangshan show minimal price fluctuations, indicating strong value retention [5][11] - The market's performance in suburban areas like Mawei reflects challenges in property absorption, with lower transaction volumes and price stability [11] Summary and Outlook - The policy direction set by the State Council in June 2025 is expected to boost market confidence, with potential for more policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market in the second half of the year [12] - If favorable policies are effectively implemented, Fuzhou's real estate market may see a rebound, with improved inventory turnover and gradually restored market confidence [12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights specific companies with "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations [49][50]. Core Insights - The primary market is experiencing a continued decline, with new home sales volume down 30% week-over-week and 26% year-over-year, while tier-3 and Central & Western cities are outperforming [5][9]. - Secondary market transactions are showing a slight decline, with average sales down 2% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year, indicating negative price appreciation expectations from agents and homeowners [26][28]. - The focus on urban renewal policies is expected to positively impact the market, particularly through demand-side stimulus measures such as urban village redevelopment [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - New homes sales volume decreased by 30% week-over-week and 26% year-over-year, with tier-3 and Central & Western cities outperforming [5]. - Secondary transactions were down 2% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year, with negative price expectations from agents and homeowners [26]. - Year-to-date, primary gross floor area (GFA) sold is down 1% year-over-year, while secondary GFA sold is up 16% year-over-year [8][28]. Inventory and Completions - Inventory balance decreased by 0.1% week-over-week and 3.9% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.0 [36]. - Completions are expected to decline by mid-to-high teens year-over-year for June 2025, with a projected 10% decline for the full year [41]. Valuation and Developer Performance - Offshore developers saw an average share price increase of 6% week-over-week, outperforming the MSCI China index [49]. - Onshore developers averaged a 2% increase week-over-week, with specific companies like China Jinmao and Longfor receiving "Buy" ratings [49][50]. - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for offshore and onshore coverage is at 0.5X for 2025E, indicating a significant discount to net asset value (NAV) [49].