This article reports industry metrics in consumer discretionary, aiming at a top-down analysis of the sector. It may also help analyze sector ETFs such as Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLY ) and FidelityFred Piard, PhD. is a quantitative analyst and IT professional with over 30 years of experience working in technology. He is the author of three books and has been investing in data-driven systematic strategies since 2010. Fred runs the investing group Quantitative Risk & Value where he sha ...

Core Insights - The upcoming holiday season is expected to boost retail sales significantly, contributing to major retailers' revenues [1] - Retail sales during November and December are projected to increase by 3.7% to 4.2%, reaching approximately $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, marking the first time U.S. holiday sales are expected to exceed $1 trillion [2] - Economic concerns, including a federal government shutdown, may dampen sales growth, affecting consumer demand [3] Retail Sales Projections - Total holiday spending is anticipated to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7% to 4.2% [2] - Last year's holiday sales were $976.1 billion, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the previous year [2] Economic Impact - The federal government shutdown is identified as a key headwind, potentially leading to a loss of private-sector income and impacting consumer spending patterns [3] - While some economic impacts are expected to be temporary, they may still influence consumer behavior during the holiday season [3] Government Funding Bill - The Senate passed a bill to fund the federal government through January, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history, with a vote of 60-40 [4] - The bill will proceed to the House of Representatives for consideration before reaching the President for signature [5] Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumers are showing caution but remain fundamentally strong, with lower-income consumers prioritizing essential goods over non-essentials [6] - This trend may negatively impact sectors related to services, such as recreation and dining, while benefiting retail and discretionary ETFs [6] Online Shopping Insights - U.S. online sales are projected to reach $253.4 billion this holiday season, reflecting a 5.3% year-over-year growth [7] - Cyber Week is expected to account for 17.2% of overall spending, totaling $43.7 billion, with a 6.3% increase from the previous year [8] Investment Opportunities - The online shopping trend is likely to benefit ETFs focused on online retail, such as ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) [8] - The "Buy Now Pay Later" trend is expected to drive an additional $2 billion in online spending, favoring iShares FinTech Active ETF (BPAY) [8] - The use of generative AI for shopping is anticipated to create investment opportunities in Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) [9]

Market Overview - Wall Street is entering a historically strong month, with November being the best month for the S&P 500, averaging a gain of 1.8% since 1950 [1] - The S&P 500 is currently just below the 7,000 mark, significantly above the year-end target of 6,555 predicted by strategists [2] - All three major indexes have shown strong year-to-date gains, with the Dow Jones up 12.2%, S&P 500 up over 16%, and Nasdaq Composite up over 23% as of October 31, 2025 [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has entered an easing policy era, having cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the second consecutive meeting, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00% [4] - The rate cut reflects the Fed's intention to bolster economic growth and strengthen the labor market amid limited economic data due to a government shutdown [5] U.S.-China Trade Relations - Investor confidence has been boosted by hopes of easing U.S.-China trade tensions, following a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, where they reached an understanding to pause new trade tensions [6] - China will cease investigations targeting U.S. companies in the semiconductor supply chain, as announced by the White House [7] Consumer Spending Trends - Approximately 91% of consumers plan to celebrate the winter holidays, with average spending expected to be $890.49 per person, a slight decrease of 1.3% from last year's record [8] Investment Opportunities - **High Beta ETF**: Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) is recommended due to easing Fed policy and trade tensions, along with anticipated holiday season sales [10] - **Consumer Discretionary ETF**: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) is expected to benefit from increased holiday shopping, with significant holdings in Amazon and Home Depot [11] - **Software ETF**: SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW) is positioned well due to the growing demand for AI software, which is sold on a subscription basis [12] - **Aerospace ETF**: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) has reported earnings growth of 226.1% on 15% higher revenues, making it a strong investment option [13] - **Small-Caps ETF**: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is favored due to Fed rate cuts, easing trade tensions, and favorable small-cap valuations [14]

Group 1 - The article focuses on industry metrics for a top-down analysis of the consumer discretionary sector, which may assist in evaluating sector ETFs like Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) [1] - The analysis is supported by insights from Fred Piard, a quantitative analyst with over 30 years of experience in technology, who emphasizes data-driven systematic strategies [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific financial data or performance metrics related to the consumer discretionary sector or the mentioned ETFs [1]

Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones have reached all-time highs in 2025, with gains of approximately 12.5%, 16.1%, and 8.4% respectively as of September 25, 2025 [1] - Historically, the fourth quarter has been the best for the stock market, with the Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq posting gains of 4.3%, 3.6%, and 4.7% respectively over the past three decades [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy grew at a robust 3.8% pace in Q2 2025, driven by stronger consumer spending, marking an upward revision from a previously reported 3.3% growth [3] - Consumer spending rose by 2.5% in Q2 2025, significantly up from 0.6% in Q1, indicating a strong consumer spending pattern heading into the holiday season [4][5] Investment Trends - Significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI) continue, with NVIDIA announcing plans for investments worth up to $100 billion in OpenAI and a $5 billion investment in Intel [6][7] - The AI sector is expected to drive Wall Street performance in the coming months due to ongoing mega-deals [7] Earnings Outlook - The overall trend for S&P 500 earnings estimates remains positive, with Q3 2025 earnings expected to rise by 5.2% year-over-year, supported by a 6.0% increase in revenues [9] Sector Analysis - Small-cap stocks are gaining momentum due to Fed rate cut hopes and a positive GDP outlook, making the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) a favorable investment [12] - The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is positioned well due to anticipated increases in long-term yields and favorable earnings revisions [13] - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) is expected to benefit from the holiday season, with retail sales projected to increase by 2.9% to 3.4% in 2025 [14] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is gaining momentum due to the AI boom and expected higher heating demand in winter months [15]

Group 1 - The article provides a top-down analysis of the consumer discretionary sector based on industry metrics, which may assist in analyzing sector ETFs like the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) [1] - The analysis is conducted by a quantitative analyst with over 30 years of experience in technology, who has been investing in data-driven systematic strategies since 2010 [1] Group 2 - The author of the article runs an investing group focused on quality dividend stocks and companies at the forefront of tech innovation, along with providing market risk indicators and various investment strategies [1]

Core Insights - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in August 2025, matching the revised growth from July and exceeding expectations of 0.2% [1] - Sales excluding certain categories rose by 0.7%, surpassing the anticipated 0.4% [1] Winning Areas - **Online Retailers**: Nonstore retailers experienced a 2% sequential increase and a 10.1% year-over-year gain [3] - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) tracks online retailers and charges 58 bps in fees [3] - Amazon.com (AMZN) is a major player in e-commerce with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [4] - **Clothing Stores**: Sales rose by 1% sequentially and 8.3% year over year in August 2025 [5] - SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) provides exposure to U.S. retail stocks, with apparel retail comprising about 21% of the fund and a fee of 35 bps [5] - Genesco (GCO) is a specialty retail company with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5] - **Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, & Books**: This segment saw a 0.8% sequential gain and a 4.7% year-over-year increase [6] - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) are suitable for investment in this sector [6] - DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) operates as a sporting goods retailer with a Zacks Rank 3 [7] - **Food Services & Drinking Places**: Sales increased by 0.7% sequentially and 6.5% year over year [8] - AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) invests primarily in restaurant-related companies and charges 99 bps in fees [8] - BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) operates high-end casual dining restaurants and holds a Zacks Rank 1 [9]

Core Insights - The Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) is a passively managed fund launched on January 26, 2004, aimed at providing broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment of the equity market [1] - The ETF has gained popularity among institutional and retail investors due to its low cost, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency, making it suitable for long-term investment [1] Fund Overview - VCR has amassed over $6.51 billion in assets, positioning it as one of the largest ETFs in the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment [3] - The fund seeks to match the performance of the MSCI US Investable Market Consumer Discretionary 25/50 Index [3][4] Cost Structure - The annual operating expenses for VCR are 0.09%, making it one of the least expensive options in the ETF space [5] - The ETF has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.75% [5] Sector Exposure and Holdings - VCR has a heavy allocation in the Consumer Discretionary sector, with approximately 99.9% of its portfolio dedicated to this area [6] - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) constitutes about 25.07% of total assets, followed by Tesla Inc (TSLA) and Home Depot Inc (HD) [7] Performance Metrics - The ETF has gained approximately 4.91% year-to-date and is up roughly 25.54% over the past year as of September 10, 2025 [8] - In the last 52 weeks, VCR has traded between $290.42 and $401.37 [8] - The ETF has a beta of 1.26 and a standard deviation of 22.66% over the trailing three-year period, indicating medium risk [8] Alternatives - VCR carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it is a reasonable option for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector [9] - Other alternatives include iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), with respective assets of $3.28 billion and $24.18 billion [10]

Core Insights - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) is a passively managed ETF launched on December 16, 1998, providing broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector of the equity market [1] - XLY has amassed over $22.03 billion in assets, making it the largest ETF in its category, aiming to match the performance of the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index [3] - The ETF has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.08%, making it the least expensive option in the sector, with a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.83% [4] Sector Exposure and Holdings - XLY has a 100% allocation in the Consumer Discretionary sector, providing diversified exposure and minimizing single stock risk [5] - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) constitutes approximately 23.47% of total assets, followed by Tesla Inc (TSLA) and Home Depot Inc (HD), with the top 10 holdings accounting for about 68.63% of total assets [6] Performance Metrics - The ETF has experienced a loss of about 1.98% year-to-date but has gained approximately 28.95% over the past year, trading between $170.05 and $239.43 in the last 52 weeks [7] - With a beta of 1.21 and a standard deviation of 22.73% over the trailing three-year period, XLY is categorized as a medium-risk investment [7] Alternatives - XLY carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a sufficient option for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector [8] - Other ETF options in the space include iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) with $2.78 billion in assets and Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) with $6.09 billion in assets, each with different expense ratios [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RSPD) offers investors broad exposure to the consumer discretionary sector, utilizing a smart beta strategy that aims to outperform traditional market cap weighted indexes [1][3]. Fund Overview - RSPD was launched on November 1, 2006, and is managed by Invesco, with total assets exceeding $204.44 million, categorizing it as an average-sized ETF in the consumer discretionary space [1][5]. - The fund seeks to match the performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary Index, which equally weights stocks in the consumer discretionary sector [5]. Cost Structure - The annual operating expenses for RSPD are 0.40%, which is competitive within its peer group [6]. - The fund has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.71% [6]. Sector Exposure and Holdings - RSPD is fully allocated to the consumer discretionary sector, representing 100% of its portfolio [7]. - The top holdings include Carnival Corp (2.33% of total assets), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, and Nike Inc, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 21.73% of total assets [8]. Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, RSPD has increased by about 4.38% and has risen approximately 20.27% over the last 12 months as of August 5, 2025 [10]. - The fund has traded between $44.09 and $56.67 in the past 52 weeks, with a beta of 1.20 and a standard deviation of 20.72% over the trailing three-year period [10]. Alternatives - For investors seeking to outperform the consumer discretionary segment, alternatives such as the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) are available, with VCR having $6.07 billion in assets and XLY $21.93 billion [12]. - VCR has a lower expense ratio of 0.09%, while XLY has an expense ratio of 0.08% [12].