Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones have reached all-time highs in 2025, with gains of approximately 12.5%, 16.1%, and 8.4% respectively as of September 25, 2025 [1] - Historically, the fourth quarter has been the best for the stock market, with the Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq posting gains of 4.3%, 3.6%, and 4.7% respectively over the past three decades [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy grew at a robust 3.8% pace in Q2 2025, driven by stronger consumer spending, marking an upward revision from a previously reported 3.3% growth [3] - Consumer spending rose by 2.5% in Q2 2025, significantly up from 0.6% in Q1, indicating a strong consumer spending pattern heading into the holiday season [4][5] Investment Trends - Significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI) continue, with NVIDIA announcing plans for investments worth up to $100 billion in OpenAI and a $5 billion investment in Intel [6][7] - The AI sector is expected to drive Wall Street performance in the coming months due to ongoing mega-deals [7] Earnings Outlook - The overall trend for S&P 500 earnings estimates remains positive, with Q3 2025 earnings expected to rise by 5.2% year-over-year, supported by a 6.0% increase in revenues [9] Sector Analysis - Small-cap stocks are gaining momentum due to Fed rate cut hopes and a positive GDP outlook, making the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) a favorable investment [12] - The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is positioned well due to anticipated increases in long-term yields and favorable earnings revisions [13] - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) is expected to benefit from the holiday season, with retail sales projected to increase by 2.9% to 3.4% in 2025 [14] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is gaining momentum due to the AI boom and expected higher heating demand in winter months [15]

Group 1 - The article provides a top-down analysis of the consumer discretionary sector based on industry metrics, which may assist in analyzing sector ETFs like the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) [1] - The analysis is conducted by a quantitative analyst with over 30 years of experience in technology, who has been investing in data-driven systematic strategies since 2010 [1] Group 2 - The author of the article runs an investing group focused on quality dividend stocks and companies at the forefront of tech innovation, along with providing market risk indicators and various investment strategies [1]

Core Insights - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in August 2025, matching the revised growth from July and exceeding expectations of 0.2% [1] - Sales excluding certain categories rose by 0.7%, surpassing the anticipated 0.4% [1] Winning Areas - **Online Retailers**: Nonstore retailers experienced a 2% sequential increase and a 10.1% year-over-year gain [3] - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) tracks online retailers and charges 58 bps in fees [3] - Amazon.com (AMZN) is a major player in e-commerce with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [4] - **Clothing Stores**: Sales rose by 1% sequentially and 8.3% year over year in August 2025 [5] - SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) provides exposure to U.S. retail stocks, with apparel retail comprising about 21% of the fund and a fee of 35 bps [5] - Genesco (GCO) is a specialty retail company with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5] - **Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, & Books**: This segment saw a 0.8% sequential gain and a 4.7% year-over-year increase [6] - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) are suitable for investment in this sector [6] - DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) operates as a sporting goods retailer with a Zacks Rank 3 [7] - **Food Services & Drinking Places**: Sales increased by 0.7% sequentially and 6.5% year over year [8] - AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) invests primarily in restaurant-related companies and charges 99 bps in fees [8] - BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) operates high-end casual dining restaurants and holds a Zacks Rank 1 [9]

Core Insights - The Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) is a passively managed fund launched on January 26, 2004, aimed at providing broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment of the equity market [1] - The ETF has gained popularity among institutional and retail investors due to its low cost, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency, making it suitable for long-term investment [1] Fund Overview - VCR has amassed over $6.51 billion in assets, positioning it as one of the largest ETFs in the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment [3] - The fund seeks to match the performance of the MSCI US Investable Market Consumer Discretionary 25/50 Index [3][4] Cost Structure - The annual operating expenses for VCR are 0.09%, making it one of the least expensive options in the ETF space [5] - The ETF has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.75% [5] Sector Exposure and Holdings - VCR has a heavy allocation in the Consumer Discretionary sector, with approximately 99.9% of its portfolio dedicated to this area [6] - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) constitutes about 25.07% of total assets, followed by Tesla Inc (TSLA) and Home Depot Inc (HD) [7] Performance Metrics - The ETF has gained approximately 4.91% year-to-date and is up roughly 25.54% over the past year as of September 10, 2025 [8] - In the last 52 weeks, VCR has traded between $290.42 and $401.37 [8] - The ETF has a beta of 1.26 and a standard deviation of 22.66% over the trailing three-year period, indicating medium risk [8] Alternatives - VCR carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it is a reasonable option for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector [9] - Other alternatives include iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), with respective assets of $3.28 billion and $24.18 billion [10]

Core Insights - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) is a passively managed ETF launched on December 16, 1998, providing broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector of the equity market [1] - XLY has amassed over $22.03 billion in assets, making it the largest ETF in its category, aiming to match the performance of the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index [3] - The ETF has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.08%, making it the least expensive option in the sector, with a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.83% [4] Sector Exposure and Holdings - XLY has a 100% allocation in the Consumer Discretionary sector, providing diversified exposure and minimizing single stock risk [5] - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) constitutes approximately 23.47% of total assets, followed by Tesla Inc (TSLA) and Home Depot Inc (HD), with the top 10 holdings accounting for about 68.63% of total assets [6] Performance Metrics - The ETF has experienced a loss of about 1.98% year-to-date but has gained approximately 28.95% over the past year, trading between $170.05 and $239.43 in the last 52 weeks [7] - With a beta of 1.21 and a standard deviation of 22.73% over the trailing three-year period, XLY is categorized as a medium-risk investment [7] Alternatives - XLY carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a sufficient option for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector [8] - Other ETF options in the space include iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) with $2.78 billion in assets and Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) with $6.09 billion in assets, each with different expense ratios [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RSPD) offers investors broad exposure to the consumer discretionary sector, utilizing a smart beta strategy that aims to outperform traditional market cap weighted indexes [1][3]. Fund Overview - RSPD was launched on November 1, 2006, and is managed by Invesco, with total assets exceeding $204.44 million, categorizing it as an average-sized ETF in the consumer discretionary space [1][5]. - The fund seeks to match the performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary Index, which equally weights stocks in the consumer discretionary sector [5]. Cost Structure - The annual operating expenses for RSPD are 0.40%, which is competitive within its peer group [6]. - The fund has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.71% [6]. Sector Exposure and Holdings - RSPD is fully allocated to the consumer discretionary sector, representing 100% of its portfolio [7]. - The top holdings include Carnival Corp (2.33% of total assets), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, and Nike Inc, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 21.73% of total assets [8]. Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, RSPD has increased by about 4.38% and has risen approximately 20.27% over the last 12 months as of August 5, 2025 [10]. - The fund has traded between $44.09 and $56.67 in the past 52 weeks, with a beta of 1.20 and a standard deviation of 20.72% over the trailing three-year period [10]. Alternatives - For investors seeking to outperform the consumer discretionary segment, alternatives such as the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) are available, with VCR having $6.07 billion in assets and XLY $21.93 billion [12]. - VCR has a lower expense ratio of 0.09%, while XLY has an expense ratio of 0.08% [12].

Core Viewpoint - The First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX ETF (FXD) is a passively managed ETF that provides broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment of the equity market, appealing to both retail and institutional investors due to its low costs and tax efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Overview - FXD was launched on May 8, 2007, and has accumulated over $315.05 million in assets, making it one of the larger ETFs in its category [3]. - The ETF aims to match the performance of the StrataQuant Consumer Discretionary Index, utilizing the AlphaDEX stock selection methodology to choose stocks from the Russell 1000 Index [3]. Group 2: Costs and Performance - The annual operating expenses for FXD are 0.61%, which is competitive within its peer group, and it has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.13% [4]. - As of August 4, 2025, FXD has experienced a year-to-date loss of approximately 0.88% but has gained about 8.32% over the past year [7]. Group 3: Sector Exposure and Holdings - The ETF has a significant allocation of about 75.7% in the Consumer Discretionary sector, with Telecom and Industrials also represented [5]. - Dillard's, Inc. (class A) constitutes about 1.53% of total assets, with the top 10 holdings making up approximately 15.03% of total assets under management [6]. Group 4: Alternatives and Market Position - FXD holds a Zacks ETF Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating it may not be the best choice for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary segment [8]. - Alternative ETFs such as the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) have significantly larger asset bases of $6.00 billion and $21.68 billion, respectively, and lower expense ratios of 0.09% and 0.08% [10].

Core Insights - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) is designed to provide broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment of the equity market and is passively managed, making it a popular choice among investors due to its low costs and transparency [1][3] Fund Overview - ITB has amassed assets over $2.74 billion, making it one of the largest ETFs in the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment [3] - The ETF seeks to match the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index, which includes U.S. equities in the home construction sector [3] Cost Structure - The annual operating expenses for ITB are 0.39%, which is considered low compared to other funds in the space [4] - The ETF has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.56% [4] Sector Exposure and Holdings - Approximately 78.3% of ITB's portfolio is allocated to the Consumer Discretionary sector, with Industrials and Materials following [5] - D R Horton Inc (DHI) constitutes about 14.3% of total assets, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 66.55% of total assets under management [6] Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, ITB has lost about 2% and is down approximately 13.91% over the last 12 months as of August 4, 2025 [7] - The ETF has traded between $85.52 and $129.34 in the past 52 weeks, with a beta of 1.26 and a standard deviation of 28.32% for the trailing three-year period, indicating high risk [7] Alternatives - ITB has a Zacks ETF Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting it may not be the best choice for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary ETFs segment [8] - Alternatives include the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), which have larger asset bases and lower expense ratios [10]

Core Insights - The Q2 earnings season shows a positive trend with a higher number of companies exceeding consensus estimates, indicating a stabilizing macroeconomic environment and encouraging management commentary [1] - Earnings estimates for the second half of the year are beginning to rise again due to the positive performance in Q2 [1] Earnings Performance - For the 117 S&P 500 companies that reported Q2 results, total earnings increased by 8.3% year-over-year, with revenues up by 5.3%. Notably, 87.2% of these companies surpassed EPS estimates, and 80.3% exceeded revenue estimates [2] - The EPS beat percentage of 87.2% is above the historical average of 81.9%, while the revenue beat percentage of 80.3% is also higher than the historical average of 70% [3] Sector Analysis - **Finance Sector**: Earnings for finance companies are up 17.3% year-over-year with revenues increasing by 5.5%. A significant 91.2% of finance companies beat EPS estimates, and 79.4% surpassed revenue estimates [5][6] - **Technology Sector**: Q2 earnings are expected to grow by 13% with revenues up by 11.8%. The "Magnificent -7" stocks are expected to see an 11.9% increase in earnings on 11.4% higher revenues [7][8] - **Consumer Discretionary Sector**: Earnings are projected to increase by 107.9% with revenues up by 2.3% in Q2, and Q3 earnings are expected to rise by 6.8% [9] - **Aerospace Sector**: Q2 earnings are expected to grow by 20.1% with revenues up by 10.4%. Q3 earnings are projected to surge by 257.3% year-over-year [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS) is a passively managed ETF that provides broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector, appealing to both retail and institutional investors due to its low costs and tax efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Overview - FDIS was launched on October 21, 2013, and has accumulated over $1.85 billion in assets, making it one of the largest ETFs in its category [3]. - The ETF aims to match the performance of the MSCI USA IMI Consumer Discretionary Index, which reflects the U.S. consumer discretionary sector [3]. Group 2: Cost Structure - FDIS has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.08%, making it the least expensive option in its category [4]. - The ETF offers a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.76% [4]. Group 3: Sector Exposure and Holdings - The ETF is fully allocated to the Consumer Discretionary sector, with Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) representing approximately 23.76% of total assets [5][6]. - The top 10 holdings constitute about 58.79% of total assets under management [6]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - As of July 28, 2025, FDIS has increased by approximately 21.88% over the past year and has a year-to-date gain of about 0.27% [7]. - The ETF has traded between $75.33 and $104.24 in the last 52 weeks, with a beta of 1.29 and a standard deviation of 23.15% over the trailing three-year period, indicating medium risk [7]. Group 5: Alternatives - FDIS has a Zacks ETF Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), suggesting it may not be the best option for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector [8]. - Alternatives include the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), which have larger asset bases and competitive expense ratios [10].