Core Insights - Riverwater Partners' Small Cap Strategy reported solid results in Q3 2025 but lagged behind the benchmark due to market preference for lower-quality companies [1] - The strategy focuses on higher-quality companies with strong fundamentals and a clear path to profitability, positioning itself well for future challenges [1] Company Performance - Palomar Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLMR) has a market capitalization of $3.362 billion, with a one-month return of -3.16% and a 52-week gain of 12.93% [2] - On December 15, 2025, Palomar's stock closed at $125.52 per share [2] Underperformance Analysis - Palomar's stock underperformance in Q3 2025 is attributed to weaker commercial market pricing, a shift away from defensive sectors, and concerns about underwriting margin compression [3] - Rate reductions in commercial earthquake and property markets have pressured premium renewal yields, impacting growth [3] - Despite challenges, Palomar has strong visibility into premium growth through multi-year rate plans and expansion into diversified lines like casualty and crop insurance [3] Financial Results - In Q3 2025, Palomar reported adjusted net income of $55.2 million or $2.01 per share, compared to $32.4 million or $1.23 per share in Q3 2024 [4] - The increase in adjusted net income indicates potential for growth, although some analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential [4]

Core Insights - Palomar Holdings reported Q3 CY2025 revenue of $244.7 million, exceeding analyst expectations by 10.2% and reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64.8% [1][6] - The company's non-GAAP profit was $2.01 per share, which was 24.8% above consensus estimates [1][6] Financial Performance - Adjusted operating income reached $67.14 million, representing a 27.4% margin and a year-on-year growth of 74.4% [6] - Operating margin improved to 27.4%, up from 25.9% in the same quarter last year [6] - Market capitalization stands at $3.39 billion [6] Business Strategy and Growth - Management attributed strong performance to product diversification, disciplined underwriting, and robust premium growth across various product lines [3][5] - The company plans to integrate the Gray Casualty and Surety Company acquisition and expand specialty lines, with a focus on strategic partnerships and technology investments [4] - The goal is to double adjusted net income every 3 to 5 years, maintaining a strong return on equity [4] Product Diversification - All major product groups, except for fronting, experienced double-digit premium growth, with new lines like crop and surety contributing significantly [7] - The residential earthquake franchise grew by 11% year-on-year, supported by new business production and high policy retention [7] - Crop insurance premiums doubled year-on-year due to favorable market conditions and new talent, while builders risk products also saw strong expansion [7] Risk Management - The company maintains a conservative reserving approach, particularly in its casualty business, with over 80% of reserves held as incurred but not reported (IBNR) [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported core net operating earnings of $2.69 per share, a 16% increase from $2.31 per share in the prior year period [7] - The annualized core operating return on equity for the third quarter was 19% [4] - Net investment income increased by 5% year-over-year, attributed to higher interest rates and increased balances of invested assets [7][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underwriting profit in specialty property and casualty insurance businesses grew 19%, with a combined ratio of 93, improving by 1.3 points from the prior year [15] - Gross and net written premiums in specialty property and casualty businesses decreased by 2% and 4% respectively compared to the previous year [15] - In the specialty financial group, the combined ratio was 81.1, which is 11.2 percentage points better than the comparable period in 2024 [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average renewal pricing across the property and casualty group increased by approximately 5% in the third quarter [15] - The property and transportation group achieved a combined ratio of 94.1, improving by 2.7 points from the comparable 2024 period [16] - The specialty casualty group reported a combined ratio of 95.8, which is 3.7 percentage points higher than the 92.1 reported in the comparable period in 2024 [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a disciplined underwriting approach while seeking growth opportunities in specialty property and casualty businesses [12] - There is a focus on evaluating acquisitions and maintaining a pipeline of startups that could become new business units [13] - The company expects to generate significant excess capital throughout 2025 and into 2026, allowing for potential acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases [10] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the recovery in multifamily investments and expects higher rental and occupancy rates by the end of 2026 [9] - The company anticipates premium growth to rebound in 2026, driven by startups and underwriting actions taken in specialty casualty businesses [14] - Management noted that while some loss ratio trends have improved, others, particularly in social inflation-exposed businesses, remain stable [30] Other Important Information - The company returned $66 million to shareholders through regular quarterly dividends and announced a special dividend of $2 per share [10] - The company has declared $54 per share or $4.6 billion in special dividends since the beginning of 2021 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why were there no buybacks in the quarter? - Management indicated that they become active in buybacks when the stock is trading at a significant discount to its value and have retained capital for future opportunities [25] Question: Can you elaborate on pricing trends in the P&C side? - Management stated that a 5% price increase is still exceeding prospective loss ratio trends, with a diverse portfolio mitigating risks [28] Question: What is the outlook for crop premium and pricing? - Management suggested that trade aspects are reflected in futures prices, leading to stable or potentially increasing premiums for crops [39] Question: Is there an impact from new participating insurance companies on crop premiums? - Management believes the impact is marginal, with new entrants likely taking on less desirable business [47]

Core Insights - AM Best has commented that the Credit Ratings of Palomar Holdings, Inc. and its member companies remain unchanged following the announcement of Palomar's acquisition of The Gray Casualty & Surety Company, expected to close in the first half of 2026 [1][12] Credit Ratings - Palomar has a Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating of "bbb†(Good), while its subsidiaries, PSIC, PESIC, and Palomar Re, have a Financial Strength Rating of A (Excellent) and Long-Term ICRs of "aâ€(Excellent) with a stable outlook [2] - FIA has an FSR of A- (Excellent) and a Long-Term ICR of "a-†(Excellent) with a positive outlook [2] - Gray has an FSR of A- (Excellent) and a Long-Term ICR of "a-†(Excellent), which have been placed under review with positive implications following the acquisition announcement [3] Acquisition Details - Post-acquisition, Gray will operate independently under new management and is expected to benefit from synergies with Palomar [4] - The acquisition will be funded through cash on hand and a bank loan, with expected financial leverage having a neutral impact on the ratings [4] Business Operations - Palomar writes various risks, with earthquake coverage being a significant part of its portfolio, alongside inland marine/other property, casualty, fronting, and crop businesses [5] - The group consistently reports profitable results due to diligent underwriting strategies and is expanding into the surety space, particularly through the acquisition of Gray, which has a larger footprint in the contract surety segment across the U.S. [5]

Core Insights - Palomar reported better-than-expected Q2 2025 results, with non-GAAP earnings per share at $1.76, surpassing the $1.67 estimate, and GAAP revenue of $203.3 million, reflecting a 55.1% year-over-year increase [1][2] - The company raised its full-year adjusted net income guidance to $198–208 million for 2025, up from a previous estimate of $186–200 million [13] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS increased by 40.8% year-over-year from $1.25 in Q2 2024 [2] - Net earned premiums rose to $180.0 million, a 47.2% increase from $122.3 million in Q2 2024 [2][5] - The adjusted combined ratio remained stable at 73.1%, while the annualized adjusted return on equity was reported at 23.7% [2][9] Business Segments and Growth - The casualty segment saw significant growth, with gross written premiums increasing by 113% year-over-year, now comprising over a quarter of total gross written premiums [3][5] - Crop insurance gross written premiums surged from $2.2 million to $39.5 million year-over-year, indicating strong expansion [5] - Earthquake insurance, while slower in growth, is expected to see mid- to high-teens growth for FY2025 [8] Diversification Strategy - Palomar is diversifying its offerings beyond earthquake coverage, focusing on product expansion and geographic reach [4][10] - The earthquake segment's contribution to gross written premiums decreased to 29.8% from 35.1% in Q2 2024, reflecting a broader portfolio [6] Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Advanced AgProtection has expanded the crop business's geographic reach [10] - The company successfully renewed its reinsurance program with an adjusted rate decrease of approximately 10% year-over-year, reducing exposure to large events [11] Technology and Operational Efficiency - Investments in technology and analytics are enhancing underwriting and operational scale, although they incur additional costs [12]