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ASML Holding(ASML) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-04-15 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2026, total net sales were EUR 8.8 billion, aligning with guidance. Net system sales reached EUR 6.3 billion, with over EUR 4.1 billion from EUV system sales and over EUR 2.1 billion from non-EUV system sales [5][6] - Gross margin for Q1 was at 53%, at the high end of guidance, primarily due to high-margin components in the installed base business [5][6] - Net income for Q1 was EUR 2.8 billion, representing 31.4% of total net sales, resulting in earnings per share of EUR 7.15 [6] - Q1 free cash flow was -EUR 2.6 billion, mainly due to the timing of down payments [6] - For Q2 2026, total net sales are expected to be between EUR 8.4 billion and EUR 9 billion, with gross margin anticipated between 51% and 52% [7][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net system sales were split almost equally between logic (49%) and memory (51%) [5] - Installed base management sales for Q1 were EUR 2.5 billion, slightly above guidance [5] - The company expects installed base management revenue to grow significantly in 2026, driven by service revenue from the expanding EUV installed base [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The semiconductor industry growth outlook is solidifying, driven by AI-related infrastructure investments, increasing demand for advanced logic and memory chips [9][10] - Memory customers have confirmed they are sold out for the remainder of the year, with supply limitations expected to persist beyond 2026 [9] - Logic customers are adding capacity across multiple advanced nodes, with expectations of supply limitations beyond 2026 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing a capacity expansion plan for 2026, aiming for at least 60 Low-NA EUV systems and increasing the move rates for HBM products [11] - The 2026 revenue guidance has been updated to between EUR 36 billion and EUR 40 billion, with a gross margin expectation between 51% and 53% [12] - The company is focusing on productivity upgrades for installed bases to meet short-term output requirements [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that demand continues to outpace supply, creating constraints across end markets, which drives customers to aggressively add capacity [9] - The company sees a strong year ahead and expects growth in 2026, supported by significant investments from customers [11] - Management emphasized the importance of ongoing discussions with customers to align capacity needs and ensure timely delivery [10][11] Other Important Information - ASML paid a third interim dividend of EUR 1.60 per ordinary share in Q1 2026 and intends to declare a total dividend of EUR 7.50 per ordinary share for 2025, a 17% increase compared to 2024 [7][8] - The company is making progress on technology, including improvements in Low-NA EUV productivity and advancements in High-NA systems [13][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updated 2026 revenue guidance and its sources - The increase in immersion outlook is primarily from non-China customers, with China expected to remain around 20% [19] Question: Gross margin guidance stability despite increased immersion - The gross margin guidance remains unchanged due to increased costs associated with hiring and ramping up production [21] Question: Customer visibility and growth profile for 2027 and 2028 - Discussions with customers are primarily focused on 2026, with some movement towards 2027, but 2028 is still too far to predict [26][27] Question: DUV capacity needs in relation to EUV tools - The company believes current DUV capacity is sufficient, with demand scaling alongside EUV [50] Question: Pricing model and customer behavior changes - Customers are more open about their expansion plans, but the company's pricing model is based on the value provided rather than market pressures [92][94]
ASML Holding(ASML) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-28 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total net sales were EUR 9.7 billion, with net system sales at EUR 7.6 billion, including EUR 3.6 billion from EUV system sales and EUR 4 billion from non-EUV system sales [6][8] - Gross margin for Q4 was 52.2%, and net income was EUR 2.8 billion, representing 29.2% of total net sales, resulting in earnings per share of EUR 7.35 [7][8] - For the full year 2025, net sales were EUR 32.7 billion, with a gross margin of 52.8% and net income of EUR 9.6 billion, resulting in earnings per share of EUR 24.73 [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - EUV system sales for 2025 were EUR 11.6 billion, a 39% increase from 2024, while DUV system sales decreased by 6% year-over-year to EUR 12 billion [9] - Installed base management sales increased by 26% year-over-year to EUR 8.2 billion [9] - R&D spending for 2025 was EUR 4.7 billion, approximately 14% of sales, while SG&A expenses increased to EUR 1.3 billion [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Logic system revenue was EUR 16.1 billion, a 22% increase from 2024, while memory system revenue was EUR 8.4 billion, a 2% decrease from 2024 [9] - Q4 net bookings were EUR 13.2 billion, with 56% from memory and 44% from logic [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on innovation and capacity expansion, particularly in EUV technology, to meet the growing demand from advanced logic and DRAM customers [15][19] - The strategy includes increasing the share of EUV systems in the product mix and enhancing productivity through R&D investments [20] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth in EUV systems due to increased capacity needs driven by AI-related infrastructure [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted an improved market outlook, particularly due to the buildup of data centers and AI infrastructure, leading to increased demand for advanced logic and DRAM [15][16] - There is a positive sentiment among foundry customers regarding long-term demand sustainability, with expectations for capacity expansion [15][16] - The company expects Q1 2026 total net sales to be between EUR 8.2 billion and EUR 8.9 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53% [11] Other Important Information - The company plans to return EUR 8.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2025, with a new share buyback program announced for up to EUR 12 billion [12][13] - The company expects to declare a total dividend of EUR 7.50 per ordinary share for 2025, a 17% increase compared to 2024 [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for calendar 2026 regarding EUV bookings - Management indicated that the guidance is influenced by customer progress in completing fabs and the ability to ramp production accordingly [23][24] Question: Changes in vision for High-NA tools in 2026 - Management expects continued progress in both DRAM and logic customer adoption, with qualification data collection expected to last most of the year [26][27] Question: Revenue growth guidance for 2026 - Management stated that growth is largely driven by customer readiness to take tools and their ability to complete fab construction [33][34] Question: Manufacturing capacity capabilities for Low-NA EUV tools - Management confirmed that capacity is dynamic and will increase gradually, with a focus on ramping up production in response to demand signals [35][36] Question: Customer visibility on equipment needs for the coming years - Management noted that customers are increasingly vocal about their capacity planning and expectations for demand, which aligns with public statements [41][42] Question: Impact of China on revenue guidance - Management indicated that China is expected to account for about 20% of total sales, and its performance will influence overall revenue guidance [50][51] Question: EUV capacity and booking trends - Management clarified that customers are not waiting for confirmation of capacity before booking, as they are aware of the company's plans to increase capacity [64][66]
ASML Holding(ASML) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-28 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total net sales were EUR 9.7 billion, with net system sales at EUR 7.6 billion, including EUR 3.6 billion from EUV system sales and EUR 4 billion from non-EUV system sales [6][8] - Gross margin for Q4 was 52.2%, and for the full year 2025, the gross margin was 52.8% [7][9] - Net income in Q4 was EUR 2.8 billion, representing 29.2% of total net sales, resulting in earnings per share of EUR 7.35 [7] - For the full year 2025, net income was EUR 9.6 billion, 29.4% of net sales, resulting in earnings per share of EUR 24.73 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - EUV system sales for 2025 were EUR 11.6 billion, a 39% increase from 2024, while DUV system sales decreased by 6% year-over-year to EUR 12 billion [9] - Installed base management sales for 2025 were EUR 8.2 billion, a 26% increase from 2024 [9] - Logic system revenue was EUR 16.1 billion, a 22% increase from 2024, while memory system revenue was EUR 8.4 billion, a 2% decrease from 2024 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, net bookings were EUR 13.2 billion, with EUR 7.4 billion from EUV systems and EUR 5.8 billion from non-EUV systems [8] - The order book concluded 2025 with a backlog of approximately EUR 38.8 billion [9] - The expected share of the China region in total net sales for 2026 is around 20% [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to invest in innovation, increasing R&D spending to EUR 4.7 billion, or about 14% of sales [10] - The market outlook has improved, particularly due to the buildup of data centers and AI-related infrastructure, leading to increased demand for advanced logic and DRAM customers [15] - The company expects significant revenue growth in EUV systems in 2026, while non-EUV revenues are expected to remain similar to the previous year [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that customers are increasingly positive about long-term demand sustainability, particularly in advanced logic and DRAM segments [15][16] - There is a notable increase in capacity expansion planning among customers, driven by strong demand for HBM and DDR products [16] - The company anticipates continued growth in installed base management revenue due to increasing service revenue from the growing installed base of EUV systems [17] Other Important Information - The company plans to declare a total dividend of EUR 7.50 per ordinary share for 2025, a 17% increase compared to 2024 [11] - A new share buyback program has been announced, with a total amount of up to EUR 12 billion [12][13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for calendar 2026 based on EUV bookings - Management indicated that the guidance is influenced by customer progress in completing fabs and the ability to execute on ramping production [24] Question: Changes in vision for High-NA tools in calendar 2026 - Management expects good progress in both DRAM and logic customer adoption, with qualification data collection expected to last most of the year [27] Question: Revenue growth guidance for 2026 - Management stated that growth is significantly driven by customer readiness to take tools and their ability to complete fab construction [33] Question: Manufacturing capacity capabilities for Low-NA EUV tools - Management confirmed that capacity is dynamic and will increase gradually, with a focus on ramping up production in response to demand signals [35][36] Question: Customer visibility on equipment needs for next year - Management noted that customers are providing strong indications of demand, aligning with public statements about revenue growth and CapEx [41][42] Question: Impact of China on revenue guidance - Management clarified that the expectation for China is integrated into the overall revenue guidance, with a significant portion of sales anticipated from that region [50]
ASML Holding(ASML) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-28 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total net sales were EUR 9.7 billion, net system sales were EUR 7.6 billion, and gross margin was 52.2% [4][5] - For the full year 2025, net sales reached EUR 32.7 billion with a gross margin of 52.8% [6][7] - Net income for Q4 was EUR 2.8 billion, resulting in earnings per share of EUR 7.35, while full year net income was EUR 9.6 billion, leading to earnings per share of EUR 24.73 [5][8] - Free cash flow for Q4 was EUR 10.9 billion, and for the full year, it was EUR 11 billion [6][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, EUV system sales contributed EUR 3.6 billion, while non-EUV system sales accounted for EUR 4 billion [4] - For the full year, EUV system sales totaled EUR 11.6 billion, a 39% increase from 2024, while DUV system sales decreased by 6% to EUR 12 billion [7] - Installed base management sales for Q4 were EUR 2.1 billion, and for the full year, they reached EUR 8.2 billion, a 26% increase from 2024 [5][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, logic system revenue was EUR 16.1 billion, a 22% increase from 2024, while memory system revenue was EUR 8.4 billion, a 2% decrease [7] - Q4 net bookings were EUR 13.2 billion, with 56% from memory and 44% from logic [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue investing in innovation, increasing R&D spending to EUR 4.7 billion, or about 14% of sales [8] - The outlook for 2026 includes expected net sales between EUR 34 billion and EUR 39 billion, with a gross margin of 51% to 53% [9] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth in EUV systems due to increased demand from advanced logic and DRAM customers [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted an improved market outlook driven by the buildup of data centers and AI-related infrastructure, leading to increased capacity needs [12] - Customers are reporting strong demand for both HBM and DDR products, with supply remaining tight through at least 2026 [13] - The company expects continued growth in installed base management revenue due to increasing service revenue from the growing install base of EUV systems [14] Other Important Information - ASML announced a total dividend for 2025 of EUR 7.50 per ordinary share, a 17% increase compared to 2024 [9][10] - A new share buyback program was initiated, with plans to repurchase shares up to EUR 12 billion [10][11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for calendar 2026 regarding EUV bookings - Management indicated that the guidance is influenced by customer progress in completing fabs and the ability to execute on ramping production [20][22] Question: Changes in vision for High-NA tools in 2026 - Management expects good progress in adoption from both DRAM and logic customers, with potential for follow-on High-NA orders in the second half of 2026 [24] Question: Factors affecting revenue growth guidance for 2026 - The primary factors include customer readiness to take tools and the company's ability to execute on production plans [29][30] Question: Insights on manufacturing capacity for Low-NA EUV tools - Management stated that capacity is dynamic and will gradually increase, with a focus on responding to demand signals [32][33] Question: Visibility into customer equipment needs for the next few years - Customers are providing more visibility regarding their mid-term demand, which aligns with public statements about revenue growth and CapEx [37][39] Question: Impact of China on revenue guidance - Management indicated that China is expected to account for about 20% of total sales, and its performance will influence overall revenue expectations [44][46] Question: EUV layer count for DRAM and its implications - Management confirmed that the number of EUV layers for DRAM is expected to increase, benefiting from strong demand for capacity [54][55] Question: Concerns about cliff risks with 4F² introduction - Management expressed confidence that the transition to 4F² will not lead to a cliff in EUV demand, as customers prefer optimized technology over multiple nodes [68][70]
ASML Holding(ASML) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-15 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net sales for Q3 2025 were €7.5 billion, within guidance, with net system sales at €5.6 billion, including €2.1 billion from EUV system sales and €3.4 billion from non-EUV system sales [6][7] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, and net income was €2.1 billion, representing 28.3% of total net sales, resulting in an EPS of €5.49 [7][8] - The effective tax rate for Q3 was 17.8%, with an expected annualized effective tax rate of around 17% for the full year [7] - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of Q3 were €5.1 billion [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Installed Base Management sales for the quarter were €2 billion, as guided [7] - Net system bookings for Q3 were €5.4 billion, with €3.6 billion from EUV systems and €1.8 billion from non-EUV systems [8] - Net system bookings were slightly weighted towards Logic at 53%, while Memory accounted for 47% [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects Q4 total net sales to be between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with installed base management sales around €2.1 billion [9] - The company anticipates a strong Q4, similar to the previous year, with a gross margin expected between 51% and 53% [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on advancing its technology roadmap, particularly in EUV and 3D integration, to meet customer demands [12][14] - A strategic partnership with Mistral AI was announced, aiming to embed AI across the company's portfolio to enhance performance and productivity [16] - The company expects a shift towards more advanced Logic and DRAM applications, which will require intensive use of advanced lithography systems [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a positive news flow in the industry, particularly regarding AI infrastructure investments, which supports demand in leading-edge logic and advanced DRAM [10] - There is an expectation of a significant decline in China customer demand in 2026 compared to strong business in 2024 and 2025, but overall sales are not expected to fall below 2025 levels [11] - The company is preparing for growth and has been investing in capacity to meet future demand [50][66] Other Important Information - The company paid an interim dividend of €1.6 per ordinary share in Q3, with another expected in Q4 [8] - A new share buyback program is expected to be announced in January 2026 [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the positive news that helped reduce uncertainty? - Management highlighted positive developments in AI infrastructure investments, which create a backlog of opportunities for future orders [21][22] Question: What is the visibility for 2026 regarding orders and capacity? - Management indicated that while there is some clarity, it is still early to predict exact impacts for 2026, especially concerning customer demand in China [25][26] Question: How do you view the strength in DRAM and its implications for EUV? - Management stated that the transition to 4F2 DRAM architecture is not expected to reduce EUV layer counts, and they anticipate growth in EUV layers [33][34] Question: What is the outlook for gross margin in 2026? - Management noted that product mix and the expected increase in EUV sales would influence gross margin, but specific guidance would be provided in January [90][91] Question: How is the installed base business expected to develop going into 2026? - Management observed that the service business is growing alongside the installed base, and they will provide updates on upgrade business expectations in January [96][98] Question: How is the company preparing for potential supply limitations in the AI market? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining dialogue with customers to ensure timely adjustments to production capacity [66][68]
ASML Holding(ASML) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-15 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net sales for Q3 2025 were €7.5 billion, within guidance, with net system sales at €5.6 billion, including €2.1 billion from EUV system sales and €3.4 billion from non-EUV system sales [6][7] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, and net income was €2.1 billion, representing 28.3% of total net sales, resulting in an EPS of €5.49 [7][8] - The effective tax rate for Q3 was 17.8%, with an expected annualized effective tax rate of around 17% for the full year [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Installed Base Management sales for the quarter were €2 billion, as guided [7] - Net system bookings for Q3 were €5.4 billion, with €3.6 billion from EUV systems and €1.8 billion from non-EUV systems, slightly weighted towards Logic at 53% and Memory at 47% [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects Q4 total net sales to be between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with installed base management sales around €2.1 billion [9] - The company anticipates a strong Q4, similar to the previous year, with a gross margin expected between 51% and 53% [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on advancing its technology roadmap, particularly in EUV and 3D integration, to meet customer demands in Logic and DRAM markets [10][12] - A strategic partnership with Mistral AI was announced, aiming to embed AI across the company's portfolio to enhance system performance and productivity [16] - The company expects a revenue opportunity between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, with gross margins projected between 56% and 60% [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a positive news flow in the industry, particularly regarding AI infrastructure investments, which are expected to support demand in Logic and DRAM [10][11] - There is an expectation of a significant decline in China customer demand in 2026 compared to strong business in 2024 and 2025, but overall sales are not expected to fall below 2025 levels [11][12] - The company is preparing for growth and has been investing in capacity to meet future demand [16][67] Other Important Information - The company paid an interim dividend of €1.6 per ordinary share in Q3 2025, with another expected in Q4 [8] - A share buyback program totaling €12 billion is ongoing, with €5.9 billion already utilized [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the positive news that helped reduce uncertainty? - Management highlighted positive developments in AI infrastructure investments, which create a backlog of opportunities for future orders [21][22] Question: What is the visibility regarding China demand? - Management indicated that the high sales levels in China were not sustainable and expected a return to more normalized levels in 2026 [25][26] Question: How should we think about revenue linearity in 2026? - Management stated that while recent orders have been strong, it is too early to predict revenue linearity for 2027 [30][31] Question: Will the transition to 4F2 DRAM architecture negatively impact EUV? - Management clarified that they do not expect a drop in EUV layer counts with the transition to 4F2, and in fact, anticipate growth in EUV layers [34] Question: What is the outlook for gross margin in 2026? - Management noted that product mix and the expected increase in EUV sales would influence gross margin, but specific guidance would be provided in January [90][91]