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ASML Holding(ASML) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-15 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net sales for Q3 2025 were €7.5 billion, within guidance, with net system sales at €5.6 billion, including €2.1 billion from EUV system sales and €3.4 billion from non-EUV system sales [6][7] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, and net income was €2.1 billion, representing 28.3% of total net sales, resulting in an EPS of €5.49 [7][8] - The effective tax rate for Q3 was 17.8%, with an expected annualized effective tax rate of around 17% for the full year [7] - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of Q3 were €5.1 billion [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Installed Base Management sales for the quarter were €2 billion, as guided [7] - Net system bookings for Q3 were €5.4 billion, with €3.6 billion from EUV systems and €1.8 billion from non-EUV systems [8] - Net system bookings were slightly weighted towards Logic at 53%, while Memory accounted for 47% [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects Q4 total net sales to be between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with installed base management sales around €2.1 billion [9] - The company anticipates a strong Q4, similar to the previous year, with a gross margin expected between 51% and 53% [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on advancing its technology roadmap, particularly in EUV and 3D integration, to meet customer demands [12][14] - A strategic partnership with Mistral AI was announced, aiming to embed AI across the company's portfolio to enhance performance and productivity [16] - The company expects a shift towards more advanced Logic and DRAM applications, which will require intensive use of advanced lithography systems [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a positive news flow in the industry, particularly regarding AI infrastructure investments, which supports demand in leading-edge logic and advanced DRAM [10] - There is an expectation of a significant decline in China customer demand in 2026 compared to strong business in 2024 and 2025, but overall sales are not expected to fall below 2025 levels [11] - The company is preparing for growth and has been investing in capacity to meet future demand [50][66] Other Important Information - The company paid an interim dividend of €1.6 per ordinary share in Q3, with another expected in Q4 [8] - A new share buyback program is expected to be announced in January 2026 [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the positive news that helped reduce uncertainty? - Management highlighted positive developments in AI infrastructure investments, which create a backlog of opportunities for future orders [21][22] Question: What is the visibility for 2026 regarding orders and capacity? - Management indicated that while there is some clarity, it is still early to predict exact impacts for 2026, especially concerning customer demand in China [25][26] Question: How do you view the strength in DRAM and its implications for EUV? - Management stated that the transition to 4F2 DRAM architecture is not expected to reduce EUV layer counts, and they anticipate growth in EUV layers [33][34] Question: What is the outlook for gross margin in 2026? - Management noted that product mix and the expected increase in EUV sales would influence gross margin, but specific guidance would be provided in January [90][91] Question: How is the installed base business expected to develop going into 2026? - Management observed that the service business is growing alongside the installed base, and they will provide updates on upgrade business expectations in January [96][98] Question: How is the company preparing for potential supply limitations in the AI market? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining dialogue with customers to ensure timely adjustments to production capacity [66][68]
ASML Holding(ASML) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-15 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net sales for Q3 2025 were €7.5 billion, within guidance, with net system sales at €5.6 billion, including €2.1 billion from EUV system sales and €3.4 billion from non-EUV system sales [6][7] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, and net income was €2.1 billion, representing 28.3% of total net sales, resulting in an EPS of €5.49 [7][8] - The effective tax rate for Q3 was 17.8%, with an expected annualized effective tax rate of around 17% for the full year [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Installed Base Management sales for the quarter were €2 billion, as guided [7] - Net system bookings for Q3 were €5.4 billion, with €3.6 billion from EUV systems and €1.8 billion from non-EUV systems, slightly weighted towards Logic at 53% and Memory at 47% [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects Q4 total net sales to be between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with installed base management sales around €2.1 billion [9] - The company anticipates a strong Q4, similar to the previous year, with a gross margin expected between 51% and 53% [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on advancing its technology roadmap, particularly in EUV and 3D integration, to meet customer demands in Logic and DRAM markets [10][12] - A strategic partnership with Mistral AI was announced, aiming to embed AI across the company's portfolio to enhance system performance and productivity [16] - The company expects a revenue opportunity between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, with gross margins projected between 56% and 60% [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a positive news flow in the industry, particularly regarding AI infrastructure investments, which are expected to support demand in Logic and DRAM [10][11] - There is an expectation of a significant decline in China customer demand in 2026 compared to strong business in 2024 and 2025, but overall sales are not expected to fall below 2025 levels [11][12] - The company is preparing for growth and has been investing in capacity to meet future demand [16][67] Other Important Information - The company paid an interim dividend of €1.6 per ordinary share in Q3 2025, with another expected in Q4 [8] - A share buyback program totaling €12 billion is ongoing, with €5.9 billion already utilized [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the positive news that helped reduce uncertainty? - Management highlighted positive developments in AI infrastructure investments, which create a backlog of opportunities for future orders [21][22] Question: What is the visibility regarding China demand? - Management indicated that the high sales levels in China were not sustainable and expected a return to more normalized levels in 2026 [25][26] Question: How should we think about revenue linearity in 2026? - Management stated that while recent orders have been strong, it is too early to predict revenue linearity for 2027 [30][31] Question: Will the transition to 4F2 DRAM architecture negatively impact EUV? - Management clarified that they do not expect a drop in EUV layer counts with the transition to 4F2, and in fact, anticipate growth in EUV layers [34] Question: What is the outlook for gross margin in 2026? - Management noted that product mix and the expected increase in EUV sales would influence gross margin, but specific guidance would be provided in January [90][91]
ASML Holding(ASML) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-15 06:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q3 2025 were €7.5 billion, including €2 billion from installed base revenue and the recognition of one High NA system [1] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, aligning with guidance [1] - Net income for the quarter was €2.1 billion, with net bookings recorded at CHF 5.4 billion, including CHF 3.6 billion for EV [1] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, revenue is expected to be between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, significantly larger than Q3 2025 [2][3] - Installed base revenue for Q4 is projected to be approximately DKK 2.1 billion, with a gross margin expected between 51% and 53% [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand from Chinese customers is anticipated to be significantly lower in 2026 compared to 2024 and 2025, where strong business was recorded [6][7] - Despite the expected decline in demand from China, net sales for 2026 are projected to not fall below 2025 levels [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on AI-driven investments in advanced logic and DRAM, which are expected to benefit a larger part of the customer base [5] - A strategic partnership with Mistral AI has been established to enhance software capabilities within ASML's systems, improving product development speed and precision [9][11][12] - The company is pursuing opportunities in 3D integration, which is seen as a way to drive Moore's Law and meet increasing customer requirements [16][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a flow of positive news reducing uncertainties, particularly regarding AI commitments and their impact on semiconductor investments [5] - The company expects to see continued strong opportunities in advanced applications driven by AI, with a long-term revenue target of €44 billion to €60 billion by 2030 [19][20] Other Important Information - The company has successfully shipped its first advanced packaging product, the XT260, which supports advanced packaging and offers up to 4x productivity compared to existing products [15] - The maturity of the INA technology is reportedly ahead of previous technologies, indicating strong execution of the technology roadmap [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for ASML in 2026? - Management believes the impact of market dynamics will be partially effective in 2026, with net sales expected to not be below 2025 levels [7] Question: Can you elaborate on the collaboration with Mistral AI? - The partnership aims to enhance software content in ASML's systems, improving performance and development speed, with ASML taking an 11% share in Mistral [11][12] Question: What are the long-term opportunities for ASML? - Management highlighted that AI will drive advanced applications in semiconductors, with a focus on advanced DRAM and logic, and the potential for significant revenue growth by 2030 [19][20]
ASML Holding(ASML) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-15 06:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q3 2025 were €7.5 billion, including €2 billion from installed base revenue and the recognition of one High NA system [1] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, aligning with guidance [1] - Net income for the quarter was CHF 2.1 billion, with net bookings of CHF 5.4 billion, including CHF 3.6 billion for EUV [1] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, revenue is expected to be between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with installed base revenue projected at approximately €2.1 billion [2][3] - Full year 2025 net sales are anticipated to be around €32.5 billion, with a gross margin around 52% [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand from Chinese customers is expected to significantly decrease in 2026 compared to 2024 and 2025, where strong business was recorded [6] - Despite the anticipated decline in China, net sales for 2026 are expected to not fall below 2025 levels [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on AI-driven investments in advanced logic and DRAM, which are expected to benefit a larger part of the customer base [5] - A strategic partnership with Mistral AI has been established to enhance software capabilities within ASML's systems, improving product development speed and performance [9][11] - The company is pursuing opportunities in 3D integration, which is seen as a way to drive Moore's Law and meet increasing customer requirements [16][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a flow of positive news regarding AI commitments, which is expected to drive investments in advanced semiconductor applications [5] - The company anticipates that AI will create significant value in its products moving forward, with long-term revenue opportunities projected between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030 [20] Other Important Information - The company has shipped its first advanced packaging product, the XT260, which supports advanced packaging and offers up to 4x productivity compared to existing products [15] - The collaboration with Mistral AI includes an 11% share acquisition and a seat on their strategic committee, emphasizing the importance of AI in ASML's future [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for ASML in 2026? - Management expects the impact of market dynamics to be partially effective in 2026, with net sales not expected to be below 2025 levels [7] Question: Can you elaborate on the collaboration with Mistral AI? - The partnership aims to enhance software content in ASML's systems, improve product development speed, and leverage AI for better performance [9][11] Question: What are the long-term opportunities for ASML? - The company sees AI driving advanced applications in semiconductors and expects significant revenue opportunities by 2030 [20]