Summary of the Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Battery Supply Chain**, particularly the production pipeline of the top battery manufacturers in China, with a specific emphasis on **lithium prices** and **battery materials** [1] Key Insights - **Production Estimates**: ZE Consulting has revised its estimates for the production pipeline of the top-5 battery makers in August 2025, increasing the month-over-month (MoM) growth from **4%** to **10%** and year-over-year (YoY) growth from **32%** to **39%** [1] - **Lithium Price Impact**: The increase in production is primarily driven by a **16%** rise in lithium spot prices month-to-date (MTD), prompting **CATL** to pull forward production [1] - **Demand for Energy Storage Systems (ESS)**: There is a noted strong demand for ESS, contributing to the increased production estimates [1] - **Battery Materials Production**: Battery materials are expected to follow the upward trend, with a projected **4-9%** MoM production increase in August [1] - **Lithium Production Forecast**: Lithium production is expected to increase by **5%** MoM, reaching a record high of **83.1k tons** despite lower output from CATL [1] Company-Specific Insights - **CATL Valuation**: - CATL-H is valued at **HK$425/share**, based on a **16.6x** 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple, which aligns with its historical average since the A-share listing. This target price implies a **28.2x** 2025E P/E and **22.4x** 2026E P/E [14] - CATL-A is valued at **Rmb404/share**, using a **16.4x** 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple, also reflecting its historical average. The target price suggests a **27.8x** 2025E P/E and **23.2x** 2026E P/E [16] - **Risks for CATL**: - Key risks include lower-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) demand, increased competition in the EV battery market, and higher raw material costs [15][16] Other Companies Mentioned - **Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material**: - Valued at **Rmb65.8/share** based on a **12.6x** 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple, with risks including lower-than-expected LFP cathode shipments and higher expenses [17][18] - **Shenzhen Dynanonic**: - Valued at **Rmb25.5/share** using a **12.5x** 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple, with risks including lower-than-expected LFP cathode shipments and expenses [19][20] Additional Considerations - **Upside Catalyst Watch**: A **90-day upside catalyst watch** has been initiated for Hunan Yuneng and Dynanonic, indicating potential growth in the battery value chain, including lithium and cathode materials [1] - **Production Forecasts for Battery Components**: - Cathode production is forecasted to increase by **9%** MoM [6] - Anode production is expected to rise by **4%** MoM [7] - Electrolyte production is projected to grow by **6%** MoM [11] - Overall, the battery materials sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by rising lithium prices and strong demand for energy storage solutions [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The "anti-involution" initiative is a structural reform aimed at addressing overcapacity in various sectors, with a focus on self-discipline and curbing low-price competition, expected to take 3-5 years to implement [1][19][30] - The current overcapacity issues differ from the 2015-16 reforms, as they now affect both "old economy" and "new economy" sectors, with more private companies involved and a tougher macroeconomic environment [2][21][30] - The report anticipates mixed impacts across sectors, with potential short-term pains due to supply rationalization leading to reduced investment and job losses [3][31] Summary by Sections Anti-involution as a Strategic Focus - Anti-involution is expected to be a key focus in China's next five-year plan, addressing historical overcapacity cycles and deflationary pressures [8][9] Comparison with 2015-16 Reforms - The 2015-16 reforms successfully reduced outdated capacity in traditional sectors, while current reforms face challenges due to the involvement of new economy sectors and a weaker macroeconomic backdrop [19][21] Sector Focus - Current overcapacity is more pronounced in new economy sectors such as solar and EV supply chains, which have received significant local government support [21][30] Demand Side Challenges - The macroeconomic environment is less favorable than in 2015-16, with weaker demand in exports and property sectors, which may hinder the effectiveness of supply-side measures [35][36] Policy Measures - Anti-involution includes measures to contain price wars, protect SMEs, and reduce local government subsidies, which may negatively impact leading firms in affected sectors [41][45] Sector-Specific Insights - **Cement**: Expected to cut capacity from 2.1 billion tons to 1.6 billion tons, with a gradual implementation timeline [68] - **Steel**: Anticipated 5% production cut, with private mills showing reluctance to reduce output due to improving margins [75][76] - **Coal**: The sector is unlikely to undergo significant cuts due to its critical role in energy security [86][89] - **Battery**: The market is experiencing rising capacity utilization, with a more consolidated landscape compared to other sectors [55][56] Conclusion - The report emphasizes that the anti-involution initiative is a long-term mission with complex challenges, requiring careful management of expectations and sector-specific strategies to navigate the evolving landscape [1][19][30]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in investment ratings for the EV and solar industries, with a more favorable outlook for energy storage systems (ESS) and critical minerals compared to solar and wind [16]. Core Insights - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" accelerates the phaseout of EV subsidies, expiring on September 30, 2025, compared to December 31, 2032, under the original IRA [16]. - The report highlights stricter restrictions on foreign entities, particularly from China, affecting the eligibility for investment tax credits (ITC) and advanced manufacturing production credits (AMPC) [16][17]. - There is a notable increase in domestic content requirements to qualify for additional credits, which may impact the cost structure for manufacturers [16][17]. Summary by Sections Part 1: EV Consumer Tax Credits - The final assembly of EVs must occur in North America to qualify for tax credits, with a maximum credit of $7,500 [6]. - Key requirements include MSRP limits of $80,000 for SUVs and $50,000 for other vehicles, with critical minerals and battery component restrictions starting in 2024 and 2025 respectively [6][7]. Part 2: Residential Clean Energy Credit - The residential clean energy credit remains at 30% for expenditures through December 2032, decreasing to 26% in 2033 and 22% in 2034 [10]. - No credits will be available for expenditures made after December 31, 2034 [10]. Part 3: ITC - The business tax credit for investment in zero-emission power and energy storage property is set at 30% of capital expenditures, with additional bonuses for domestic content [12]. - The credit rate will phase out based on the date of construction start, with specific thresholds for solar and energy storage systems [12]. Part 4: Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit - The AMPC will phase out for eligible components produced and sold, with a stricter non-PFE threshold compared to the Senate draft [13]. - The report emphasizes that projects with "effective control" by prohibited foreign entities will not receive credits, impacting U.S. battery production using Chinese components [16][17]. Key Changes vs. IRA - The report outlines significant changes from the original IRA, including the introduction of PFE restrictions and a more stringent domestic content requirement for tax credits [16]. - The overall stance on China has become tougher, with implications for U.S. manufacturers relying on foreign supply chains [16].

Investment Rating - The report initiates CATL-H with an Overweight (OW) rating and a price target (PT) of HK$400, indicating a 25% upside from the previous close. CATL-A is upgraded to OW with a PT of Rmb370 from Not Rated [2][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese EV battery supply chain stocks have rebounded by 8-17% since April, driven by CATL-H's strong performance post-listing and ongoing investment interest in solid-state batteries [2]. - Industry capacity utilization rates have improved, with key players achieving over 80% utilization in the second half of 2024, leading to a new capital expenditure (capex) cycle [5][10]. - Battery prices have stabilized after significant declines, with some players in the energy storage system (ESS) segment experiencing price recovery due to strong demand [5][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Capacity Utilization - The report notes a recovery in industry capacity utilization rates, with improvements seen in 2024, particularly in the second half, driven by better-than-expected demand for EVs and ESS [10][12]. - A significant increase in new orders for battery equipment is anticipated in 2025, with top suppliers expecting over a 45% increase compared to 2024 [5][12]. Battery Prices and Market Dynamics - Battery prices for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) have decreased by 40-60% from their peak in late 2022/early 2023, but have stabilized in 2024 despite a further 20% drop in lithium carbonate prices [5][10]. - Select ESS battery manufacturers have seen a small price recovery, attributed to robust domestic and international demand [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - CATL's shipments for EV and ESS batteries are projected to reach 475 GWh in 2024, up from 390 GWh in 2023, with a strong performance expected in the second half of 2024 [31]. - The report provides a detailed comparison of battery makers' financial results, highlighting CATL's gross profit margin (GPM) improvements and net profit per unit stability [35][40]. Market Share and Competitive Landscape - CATL continues to dominate the Chinese EV battery market, with a significant share in both domestic and overseas markets, while competition remains intense among local players [7][38]. - The report discusses the implications of Chinese OEMs shortening payment terms to suppliers, expressing skepticism about its impact on material suppliers' cash flow [5].

Summary of the Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Battery Supply Chain**, particularly the production and market dynamics of battery materials and manufacturers in China, with a specific emphasis on the **Top-5 battery makers** [1][3]. Key Insights - **Production Growth**: The production pipeline for the Top-5 battery makers is projected to increase by **2% month-over-month (MoM)** and **46% year-over-year (YoY)**, reaching **103.4 GWh** in June 2025, driven by heightened demand from the US Energy Storage System (ESS) sector [1]. - **Market Concerns**: There are escalating concerns in the market due to recent price cuts initiated by Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), which may intensify competition and potentially squeeze the profit margins of upstream battery and battery materials manufacturers [1]. - **Downcycle Indication**: The ongoing competition in the end-market suggests a prolonged downcycle for the battery value chain, with no immediate signs of a price recovery anticipated in the near term [1]. - **CATL's Stability**: Despite the rising competition among downstream players, CATL's margins are expected to remain stable. However, there has been a downward adjustment in CATL's ESS margin forecast [1]. - **Strengthened Orderbook**: Following the price cuts by OEMs, the orderbook for batteries has strengthened, indicating robust demand. Future catalysts for the battery supply chain include the US tax bill and tariffs [1]. Financial Valuation - **CATL Valuation**: - The valuation for CATL-H is set at **HK$425/share**, based on a target multiple of **16.6x 2025E EV/EBITDA**, which aligns with the stock's historical average since its A-share listing. This target price implies a **28.2x 2025E P/E** and **22.4x 2026E P/E** [8]. - For CATL-A, the valuation is **Rmb391/share**, also based on **16.6x 2025E EV/EBITDA**, with similar P/E implications as CATL-H [10]. Risks Identified - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected demand for electric vehicles (EVs) could adversely affect CATL's market position. - Increased competition in the EV battery market may lead to a market share for CATL that falls short of expectations. - Rising raw material costs could further impact profitability [9][11]. Additional Considerations - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the evolving dynamics within the battery supply chain, particularly in light of competitive pressures and regulatory changes that may influence market conditions [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding the China Battery Materials industry, focusing on production forecasts, market challenges, financial valuations, and associated risks.