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从传统出口到新能源出海,中国商用车的新一轮海外战事
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-09 10:43
Core Insights - The trend of expanding into overseas markets is becoming a definitive direction for the new energy commercial vehicle sector, especially as domestic sales decline while exports remain robust [2] - The new energy commercial vehicle market is still in an exploratory phase, providing opportunities for both traditional manufacturers and new entrants [2] - Companies like Wall Gecko Automotive are actively pursuing international markets, with a goal of achieving over 50% of revenue from overseas [4][6] Market Overview - In 2024, domestic sales of commercial vehicles in China are projected to decline by 9% to 2.969 million units, while exports are expected to grow by 17.5% to 904,000 units [2] - From January to May, exports of new energy commercial vehicles reached 41,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 230% [2] - The commercial vehicle market is categorized into trucks, buses, and special vehicles, with various subcategories based on usage, scenarios, and load capacity [2] Challenges and Opportunities - The new energy commercial vehicle sector faces challenges related to product reliability and operational service requirements, particularly in high-frequency usage scenarios like urban delivery and logistics [3] - The market is characterized by a lack of established patterns, allowing for coexistence and collaboration between traditional manufacturers and new players [2] Competitive Landscape - Wall Gecko Automotive focuses on whole vehicle exports and local assembly in markets with high tariffs and localization requirements [7] - The primary market for Wall Gecko is Europe, where the light commercial vehicle market is estimated at 4 million units, with a target market share of 5% [9] - Approximately 70% of customers in Europe are small to medium enterprises, while 20-30% are large clients like national postal services and logistics companies [12] Market Entry Strategies - Wall Gecko Automotive employs various strategies, including direct sales to large clients and participation in major trade shows to enhance brand visibility [14] - The company aims to penetrate the Latin American market, starting with Chile, which has supportive policies for electric logistics vehicles [17] Future Outlook - The new energy heavy-duty truck segment faces challenges such as battery weight affecting load capacity and high costs impacting total cost of ownership [19] - The company is observing potential markets like Australia, New Zealand, and Russia, while North America remains a complex and less prioritized option due to regulatory challenges [18]