机构：国信证券 研究员：丁诗洁/刘佳琪 行业趋势：中国运动市场走向多元化，欧美日韩发展路径各具特色。中国运动鞋服市场规模达4000 亿 元，疫情前复合增速达17%，渗透率从2010 年的7.3%提升至2024 年的15.3%。行业经历三轮增长周期： 2008-2010 年专业运动与运动休闲共同崛起；2014-2019 年高端运动时尚风潮兴起；2021 年至今专业与 户外运动主导多元化发展。欧美日韩运动行业渗透率普遍更高但发展路径分化：欧美以大众运动及硬核 户外为主，品牌格局上，综合运动品牌在起源地占优，比如耐克、阿迪在本土市场份额领先，同时借助 体育文化竞技资源向海外市场成功输出；日韩侧重时尚运动，户外品牌在日韩市占率高并向潮流风格演 化。目前中国市场品牌集中度仍高，多元化发展趋势有望延续。 成长空间：品牌运营可激发增量需求，全球化经营有望带来戴维斯双击。品牌矩阵化是中期提升市场份 额的主要抓手，并且成长规模不局限于细分领域，因出色的品牌运营能够催生消费新需求。例如近年始 祖鸟、萨洛蒙品牌火爆，带动国内冲锋衣、户外鞋等品类市场翻倍增长。集团旗下品牌社媒互动量2025 年同比增80%-200%，抖音搜索指数持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 113.6, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HKD 92.45 [6]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, slightly below expectations, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth. Other brands saw significant growth of 50-55% [2][3]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin, a German outdoor brand, for USD 290 million, which is expected to enhance its presence in the outdoor market in China [3]. - The financial projections for EPS from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 4.72, RMB 5.26, and RMB 5.88 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory despite some fluctuations in profit margins [4][3]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with children's products performing better than bulk items. The overall H1 performance showed mid-single-digit growth [2]. - FILA's Q2 2025 revenue growth was in the mid-single digits, aligning with expectations, while other brands, including Descente and KOLON, reported over 40% and 70% growth respectively [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62.36 billion in 2023 to RMB 92.97 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.8% [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 13.25 billion, reflecting a decrease of 15% compared to 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a 2025 PE ratio of 22 times, based on industry averages and brand premium considerations, supporting the target price of HKD 113.6 [3][4]. - The projected gross margin remains stable around 62%, with net profit margins expected to fluctuate between 16.9% and 17.8% over the forecast period [4][11].