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小鹏汽车-W(09868):对标特斯拉,AI时代如何看待小鹏汽车估值
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-04 15:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [11] Core Insights - The company is positioned for a valuation re-rating in the AI era, driven by a strong new vehicle cycle and advancements in AI technology. The expectation is for multiple new models to launch in 2025, enhancing sales and profitability. The combination of scale, cost reduction from platform and technology, and expansion into software profitability and international markets provides significant earnings flexibility [3][9][16]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Valuation in the AI Era - Historically, the company's valuation primarily considered automotive business expectations, neglecting AI-related aspects such as smart driving, Robotaxi, robots, and flying cars. The price-to-sales (PS) ratio has been in the range of 1.5-2 times, while Tesla's PS exceeds 10 times, reflecting its strong AI application valuation. The company is transitioning to a global AI automotive firm, aiming to create an AI ecosystem encompassing AI cars, robots, and flying vehicles, which could significantly enhance its valuation potential [6][16]. AI Pricing Potential Compared to Tesla - Tesla's valuation is significantly higher than traditional automakers, with a dynamic PE midpoint of approximately 135.06 and an actual dynamic PE of 230.22. The valuation reflects market expectations for Tesla's AI application business. The theoretical dynamic PE for Tesla's various business segments indicates substantial valuation premiums for its AI applications, particularly Robotaxi, which accounts for 50% of its valuation [7][17][27]. Deep AI Accumulation and Ecosystem Development - The company has a strong foundation in AI applications and is fully pivoting towards an AI strategy. It aims to become a global AI automotive technology enterprise over the next decade. The core elements supporting this strategy include high-performance chips and large-scale models. The company has established a "three-in-one" intelligent ecosystem that includes AI cars, robots, and flying vehicles. Key developments include: 1. Smart Driving and Robotaxi: Plans to launch L4 autonomous vehicles and initiate Robotaxi trials in 2026 [8][9]. 2. AI Robots: The next-generation robot is expected to be unveiled soon, with mass production targeted for 2026 [8]. 3. Flying Cars: The company leads in flying car development, with a significant order backlog and production capacity set to support large-scale deliveries in 2026 [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a valuation re-rating as AI applications gain traction. The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with projections of 83.1 billion and 135.8 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PS ratios of 1.9X and 1.1X. The overall outlook is positive, supporting the "Buy" rating [9][11].