Technology & Product - FSD (Full Self-Driving) 13 is a significant upgrade from HW (Hardware) 3 [1] - Karpathy provides a positive assessment of FSD 13 on a new HW4 Model X [1] Company - Dirty Tesla reports on Karpathy's review [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Robotaxi initiative is seen as a last-ditch effort to revitalize its business amidst declining sales and innovation challenges, with the market expressing skepticism about its potential success [3][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Tesla's delivery volume has shifted from rapid growth to stagnation, with 2023 deliveries at 1.81 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.7%, but projected to decline by 1.1% in 2024 [5][8]. - In Q1 2025, Tesla's deliveries were approximately 337,000, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% [7]. - In April 2025, Tesla faced significant declines in key markets: a 6% drop in China, 46% in Germany, and 62% in the UK [8]. Group 2: Innovation and Product Development - Tesla's main models, the Model 3 and Model Y, have not seen timely updates, leading to consumer fatigue; the Model 3 was first launched in 2016 and only received a facelift in 2023, while the Model Y's update is expected in January 2025 [8][9]. - The anticipated lower-cost Model Q has faced delays, with initial promises of a 2020 launch pushed back multiple times [9][10]. - The introduction of the Yu 7 by Xiaomi, which directly competes with the Model Y, indicates increased competition in the market [12][13]. Group 3: Profitability Challenges - Tesla's gross profit margin for vehicle sales has fallen below 10%, with Q1 2025 showing a gross margin of 11.3% [15][17]. - Excluding Full Self-Driving (FSD) revenue, the gross profit margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 were only 13.22% and 9.5%, respectively [18]. - In 2024, Tesla's total gross profit from vehicle sales is projected to decline nearly 40% from 2022 levels, dropping from $17.6 billion to $10.6 billion [22]. Group 4: Revenue Sources and Future Outlook - Tesla's reliance on carbon credit sales has resurfaced, with 2024 seeing carbon credit revenue account for 38.6% of net profit, compared to 12% in 2023 [23]. - The FSD revenue, which is recorded as deferred income, has not met expectations, with projections for 2025 indicating a mere $7.8 billion in confirmable revenue [35]. - The overall valuation of Tesla, heavily reliant on FSD, is viewed as inflated, with significant doubts about its sustainability [35].