当前，各大体育博彩企业正加速布局这一新兴赛道，以应对Kalshi公司和Polymarket等新兴企业的挑战 ——这些初创公司率先开创了这种全新的事件结果投注模式。 这类交易所提供以美元计价的合约，其价格直接反映事件发生的概率，相较于传统体育博彩使用的赔率 体系，这种形式更为直观。 新的FanDuel应用将首先面向阿拉巴马、阿拉斯加、南卡罗来纳、北达科他和南达科他五个州的用户开 放，随后将分阶段在全美推广。 FanDuel高级副总裁James Cooper表示："在五个州的率先推出将为我们提供宝贵的用户参与洞察，有助 于我们在2026年向更多州扩展时，进一步优化运营策略。" 据了解，其竞争对手DraftKings于上周五宣布，其预测市场应用将在38个州上线，但其中仅18个州开放 体育赛事投注。 作为Flutter Entertainment Plc(FLUT.US)旗下的美国在线博彩部门，FanDuel此次是与衍生品交易所运营 商芝商所(CME.US)合作推出该应用。DraftKings方面也透露，目前其交易同样通过CME进行，但该公 司已收购一家衍生品交易所，未来计划将交易业务迁移至自有平台。 智通财经APP ...

New prediction markets platform launches in five states with a phased expansion to other states through early 2026 FanDuel Predicts will provide customers with a platform to express their views on the day's biggest stories across financial indicators, cultural moments and sports. This new mobile application will be available in the Apple App Store and Google Play and will integrate FanDuel's "Know Your Customer" sign-up process, requiring customers to submit their birth date, Social Security number, home ad ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in shares of DraftKings Inc and Flutter Entertainment PLC is seen as unwarranted by analysts, who believe both companies have significant opportunities in the prediction markets space, estimated at $5 billion [1][3][6]. Company Analysis - DraftKings has an Outperform rating with a price target of $48, while Flutter Entertainment also holds an Outperform rating with a price target of $330 [1][2]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for DraftKings and Flutter in prediction markets is estimated at $5 billion, which includes $4.4 billion for sports prediction markets and $600 million for non-sports prediction markets [4]. - Analysts estimate that DraftKings and Flutter could achieve market shares of 14% and 16%, respectively, in prediction markets in states where online sports betting is not yet legalized [5]. Market Context - Since the end of August, DraftKings and Flutter have seen market capitalizations decrease by approximately $10 billion and $20 billion, respectively [6]. - The market is currently pricing in a worst-case scenario regarding the TAM, assuming that all states legalize online sports betting without allowing the launch of prediction markets [6]. - DraftKings shares closed at $29.44, down 1.83%, while Flutter shares closed at $191.79, down 0.79%, reflecting year-to-date declines of 18.9% and 24.7%, respectively [7][8].

Core Insights - Flutter Entertainment plc (NYSE:FLUT) is experiencing a competitive environment for account openings, leading to a decline in stock performance despite being a strong company [1] - The company reported mixed earnings, with soft revenue attributed to adverse gambling outcomes, but higher than expected earnings [1] - Flutter is expanding into the predictions market with the launch of FanDuel Predicts in partnership with the CME Group [1] Company Overview - Flutter Entertainment operates well-known brands in sports betting and online gaming, including FanDuel, PokerStars, Betfair, and Paddy Power [1] - The company is navigating a challenging market environment characterized by intense competition [1] Financial Performance - The latest earnings report indicated soft revenue due to unfavorable gambling outcomes [1] - Despite the revenue challenges, Flutter achieved higher than expected earnings [1] Strategic Initiatives - Flutter is entering the predictions market, similar to recent moves by competitors like DraftKings [1] - The launch of FanDuel Predicts is set for next month, indicating a proactive approach to market expansion [1]

Group 1 - Flutter, the parent company of FanDuel, announced a partnership with CME Group to launch a new prediction markets platform called FanDuel Predicts, set to launch in December [1] - Prediction markets allow bettors to place wagers on the outcomes of various events, indicating a growing trend in the betting industry [1] Group 2 - DraftKings is entering the prediction markets space, indicating competition in this emerging sector [4] - Robinhood reported a doubling of revenue and more than tripled earnings, showing significant growth in the financial services sector [4]

LATEST: 🏀 CME Group and FanDuel are teaming up to launch a US prediction markets platform next month called FanDuel Predicts, a standalone app offering event contracts on sports, crypto prices and more. https://t.co/ZiRFMozVIz ...

Core Insights - CME Group and FanDuel are launching a new prediction market product called FanDuel Predicts in December, allowing users to wager on sporting events, gas prices, and cryptocurrencies [1] - The product will be available only in states where sports betting is not yet legal and will be excluded from tribal lands [2] - Flutter CEO Peter Jackson highlighted that FanDuel Predicts presents an immediate growth opportunity, particularly in states where FanDuel sportsbook is not available [3] Market Context - The joint venture is part of a trend among gaming companies and crypto exchanges, with similar launches from DraftKings and Coinbase [4] - Prediction markets have gained popularity, especially following the success of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which facilitated significant trading volumes leading up to the 2024 US Presidential election [5] - Weekly notional volume for prediction markets reached approximately $2 billion in November, peaking at $3 billion recently, primarily driven by sporting events [5] Regulatory Landscape - The rise of prediction markets has attracted attention from state regulators, leading to disputes over regulatory authority [6][7] - The New York Gaming Commission issued a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi for operating without a gaming license, and similar actions have been taken against other companies like Crypto.com [8]

Now, let's talk about the predictions market, which is a market I can candidly I am fascinated by, but I was always hoping someone would actually have a partner from our world, not just a partner from, say, Vegas. You've got the CME, whom I regard as the foremost arbiter of this kind of activity, as your partner, which to me legitimizes something that I felt, frankly, is a little bit uh that I was a little sheepest to be involved in. >> We we've been operating in this space for a long time, right.We have th ...

Core Insights - FanDuel is set to launch an independent prediction market application called "FanDuel Predicts" in December, as part of a collaboration between its parent company Flutter and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) [1] - DraftKings, a major competitor, has also announced plans to launch a similar platform named "DraftKings Predictions" shortly before FanDuel's announcement [2] - Following these announcements, Flutter's stock price fell by 4% in after-hours trading, indicating market reactions to the competitive landscape [2] Industry Overview - The core of prediction markets is "event contracts," which allow users to trade on the outcomes of future events, such as stock indices, economic data, and sports events [5] - Unlike state-regulated sports betting, event contracts are regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making them legal across the U.S. without the need to pay state-level gambling taxes [5] - This regulatory framework provides a pathway for companies to operate in states where sports betting has not yet been legalized, expanding their business opportunities [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group revenue increased by 17% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 6% in Q3 2025 [5][19] - The company reported a net loss of $789 million for the quarter, compared to a loss of $114 million in the prior year, primarily due to a non-cash impairment charge of $556 million related to regulatory changes in India [18][19] - Adjusted earnings per share grew by 29%, while loss per share increased to $3.91 from $0.58 in Q3 2024 [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the US, revenue was up 9%, driven by exceptional iGaming growth of 44%, while sportsbook revenue declined by 5% [18] - International revenue increased by 21% year-over-year, with acquisitions contributing 18 percentage points to this growth [19] - iGaming performance showed strong organic growth of 10%, particularly in Turkey and Italy [12][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average monthly players engaging with products exceeded 14 million, contributing to revenue growth [5] - The company maintained a 47% market share in net gaming revenue (NGR) in September, despite competitive pressures [11][30] - The international division's revenue reached $2.4 billion, reflecting a 21% increase, with strong performance in Turkey and Italy [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is strategically positioning FanDuel to capture emerging prediction markets with the launch of FanDuel Predicts in December [6][17] - The focus remains on state-regulated sports betting and iGaming as the most valuable long-term opportunities in the US [8] - The company plans to invest significantly in FanDuel Predicts, anticipating an incremental EBITDA cost of $40-$50 million in Q4 2025 and $200-$300 million in 2026 [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying business performance despite a reduction in full-year guidance due to customer-friendly sports results [5][21] - The competitive landscape has seen heightened generosity from competitors, impacting initial NFL season performance, but management remains optimistic about long-term growth [11][30] - The company is closely monitoring the regulatory environment in India and remains engaged with policymakers regarding potential gaming tax increases in the UK [15][16][60] Other Important Information - The company completed share repurchases totaling $225 million in Q3 and plans to continue the program into 2026, with a commitment to return $5 billion over the coming years [20][21] - The integration of recent acquisitions is progressing well, with a focus on delivering synergies and enhancing the iGaming proposition [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the planned investment for FanDuel Predicts? - Management expressed excitement about the product and emphasized a disciplined approach to customer acquisition, monitoring CAC to LTV dynamics closely [25][26] Question: How widespread was the competitive generosity seen at the start of the NFL season? - Management noted that while there was heightened generosity, they maintained a disciplined investment posture and were pleased with their market share performance [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for trading in September and into Q4 in the US? - Management reported strong momentum into Q4, with double-digit handle growth and a positive start to the NBA season [30][31] Question: Can you provide insights on the prediction markets and regulatory engagement? - Management highlighted extensive engagement with stakeholders and optimism about accelerating state legalization of sports betting [34][35] Question: How do you view the competitive landscape with new partnerships like ESPN and DraftKings? - Management acknowledged the competitive dynamics but emphasized their strong product offering and successful partnerships, particularly with Amazon [56]