事件发生在Polymarket估值飙升至80亿美元的关键时刻。纽约证券交易所母公司本周刚宣布将向该平台投资高达20亿美元，彰显 了主流金融机构对预测市场日益增长的兴趣。 一位神秘交易员在诺贝尔和平奖揭晓前12小时的精准押注，引发了关于内幕交易的质疑风暴。 据媒体周六报道，在委内瑞拉反对派领袖María Corina Machado获得2024年诺贝尔和平奖之前12小时，一名代号"6741"的新注册 用户在加密货币预测市场Polymarket上大笔买入，将María Corina Machado的获奖概率从5%大幅推高至70%，最终斩获超过5万 美元利润。 挪威诺贝尔研究所已启动调查，怀疑存在信息泄露。该机构发言人Erik Aasheim表示："我们注意到有人通过押注今年的奖项获得 了巨额利润，我们将调查这是否意味着有人非法获取了我们的内部信息。" 这一事件凸显了快速增长的预测市场面临的监管盲区。作为一个离岸、无监管的平台，Polymarket并不禁止内幕交易，也不受美 国相关法律约束。 午夜异动：神秘账户的精准狙击 戏剧性的一幕发生在奥斯陆时间周五凌晨，在诺贝尔和平奖宣布前约12小时，一个名为"6741"的新 ...

新华社伦敦10月7日电（记者赵阳）英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数7日报收于 9483.58点，较前一交易日上涨4.44点，涨幅为0.05%。欧洲三大股指当天全线上涨。 当天伦敦股市成分股中位于涨幅前五位的个股分别为：商业服务企业能多洁公司股价上涨3.90%，烟草 集团帝国品牌公司股价上涨3.36%，英国奢侈品集团博柏利股价上涨3.04%，比兹利保险公司股价上涨 2.78%，英美烟草集团股价上涨1.82%。 当天伦敦股市成分股中位于跌幅前五位的个股分别为：体育博彩公司恩坦股价下跌6.54%，纸业公司蒙 迪股价下跌4.82%，约翰-戴维运动时装公司股价下跌2.44%，斯皮拉克斯集团股价下跌2.26%，企业服 务外包商巴布科克国际集团股价下跌2.19%。 欧洲其他两大主要股指方面，法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于7974.85点，较前一交易日上涨3.07点， 涨幅为0.04%；德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于24385.78点，较前一交易日上涨7.49点，涨幅为 0.03%。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:马俊卿】 ...

Group 1 - The core index of the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE 100, closed at 9350.43 points on September 30, marking an increase of 50.59 points, or 0.54% from the previous trading day [1] - The top five gainers in the London stock market included: African Telecom with a rise of 5.35%, Reckitt Benckiser up by 3.85%, GlaxoSmithKline increasing by 3.72%, Melrose Industries up by 2.73%, and Rentokil Initial rising by 2.51% [1] - The top five losers in the London stock market were: Entain down by 3.53%, Pershing Square Holdings down by 2.37%, BP down by 2.04%, Antofagasta down by 2.00%, and Shell down by 1.84% [1] Group 2 - The CAC40 index in Paris closed at 7895.94 points, up by 15.07 points, or 0.19% from the previous trading day [1] - The DAX index in Frankfurt closed at 23880.72 points, increasing by 135.66 points, or 0.57% from the previous trading day [1]

Market Performance - The FTSE 100 index in London closed at 9216.87 points, up by 38.88 points, representing a gain of 0.42% from the previous trading day [1] - The performance of major European stock indices was mixed, with the CAC40 index in Paris closing at 7698.92 points, down by 20.79 points, a decline of 0.27%, while the DAX index in Frankfurt closed at 23770.33 points, up by 175.53 points, a rise of 0.74% [1] Top Gainers - The top five gainers in the London stock market included: - "Rightmove," a UK real estate sales network, with a stock price increase of 2.88% - African telecommunications operator, with a stock price increase of 2.51% - Aviva Insurance Group, with a stock price increase of 2.51% - Reed Elsevier Publishing Group, with a stock price increase of 2.43% - Automotive trading group, with a stock price increase of 2.40% [1] Top Losers - The top five losers in the London stock market included: - EasyJet, with a stock price decrease of 4.21% - Antofagasta, a mining company, with a stock price decrease of 2.28% - Admiral Group, a car insurance company, with a stock price decrease of 2.27% - Entain, a sports betting company, with a stock price decrease of 1.88% - Fresnillo, a mining company, with a stock price decrease of 1.74% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic collaboration between Jiayang Research, renowned financial scholar Chen Huojin, and Spanish sports betting group VERSUSbet aims to promote the internationalization and compliance development of the "Sports Hedging Fund," providing investors with a new stable investment option [1] Group 1: International Cooperation Background - VERSUSbet is a leading sports betting group in Spain with extensive operational experience and risk management capabilities in the European market [2] - Jiayang Research has deep expertise in investment research and asset allocation, while Professor Chen Huojin is known for his cross-disciplinary research in investment and risk control [2] - The collaboration aims to introduce an innovative asset management tool to the investment market through the "Sports Hedging Fund" [2] Group 2: Initial Implementation and Compliance in Hong Kong and Mainland China - The collaboration has initially launched in the Hong Kong market, where the project is running smoothly and has garnered significant industry attention [3] - In Mainland China, due to strict legal and regulatory requirements, the collaboration team is limited to operating the "Sports Hedging Fund" without involving any betting activities, ensuring all operations are conducted within a legal and compliant framework [3] Group 3: Clarification of Market Concerns - Jiayang Research and Professor Chen Huojin clarified that the "sports score investment" project is not a scam but a compliant fund model based on risk hedging principles and scientific investment research design [4] - The entire operation mechanism, including the professor's team and research platform, is conducted in a legitimate manner, aiming to protect investors' rights and fund security [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry insiders believe that the Sports Hedging Fund, as an innovative financial product, can bridge the gap between the sports market and capital market, offering investors diversified hedging options [5] - Jiayang Research, Chen Huojin, and VERSUSbet will continue to deepen their efforts in the sports hedging fund market, adhering to legal compliance and stable operations to create long-term value for investors [5]

Group 1 - The core index of the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE 100, closed at 9255.50 points, down 10.30 points or 0.11% from the previous trading day [1] - Among the constituent stocks, service sector stocks led the gains, with notable increases including John David Sportswear up 3.55%, African Telecoms up 3.05%, and Entain up 1.84% [1] - Conversely, airline stocks experienced the largest declines, with easyJet down 3.12%, NatWest Group down 2.54%, and International Airlines Group down 2.04% [1] Group 2 - The CAC40 index in Paris closed at 7743.93 points, up 34.12 points or 0.44% from the previous trading day [1] - The DAX index in Frankfurt closed at 24046.21 points, down 106.66 points or 0.44% from the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - US stock markets experienced collective gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.47%, the Nasdaq up 0.98%, and the S&P 500 up 0.78%, indicating a positive market sentiment for the week [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones increased by 1.35% over the week, while the Nasdaq saw a significant rise of 3.87%, and the S&P 500 rose by 2.43% [1] - Notable tech stocks performed well, with Apple rising over 4% and achieving a weekly gain of 13%, marking its best weekly performance since July 2020 [1] - Other tech stocks like Google and Tesla increased by over 2%, while Nvidia saw a rise of over 1% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The automotive and consumer electronics sectors led the gains, with GoPro rising over 7%, Sony up over 4%, and both Toyota and Honda increasing by over 3% [1] - Conversely, the sports betting and cruise sectors faced declines, with Flutter Entertainment dropping over 8%, and Carnival and Royal Caribbean cruise lines falling by over 2% [1] Group 3: Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.26% but still recorded a weekly gain of 2.39% [1] - Among popular Chinese stocks, NIO rose over 3% and XPeng Motors nearly 3%, while Bilibili, iQIYI, and Miniso saw declines of over 1% [1]

Market Overview - The FTSE 100 index in London closed at 9095.73 points, down 5.04 points or 0.06% from the previous trading day [1] - European major stock indices showed mixed results on the same day [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks led the gains in the London stock market, with notable increases including: - Glencore up 2.78% - Antofagasta up 2.53% - Coca-Cola European Partners up 2.33% - Mondi up 2.03% - JD Sports Fashion up 1.79% [1] - Service sector stocks experienced the largest declines, with significant drops including: - WPP down 6.2% - Entain down 5.82% - InterContinental Hotels Group down 3.9% - Rightmove down 3.71% - Sage down 3.09% [1] Other European Indices - The CAC 40 index in Paris closed at 7743 points, up 33.68 points or 0.44% from the previous trading day [1] - The DAX index in Frankfurt closed at 24162.86 points, down 29.64 points or 0.12% from the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - The match between Fredericia and Midtjylland is highlighted, with Fredericia's recent performance showing 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches, while Midtjylland has 1 win and 4 draws in their last 5 matches [2] - Fredericia's main players are missing due to injuries, which could impact their performance in the upcoming match [2] - Midtjylland's recent form in European competitions shows 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 away matches, indicating a struggle in securing victories [2] Group 2 - Cluj's recent performance is poor, with 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, and they are currently ranked 4th from the bottom in their league [3] - Braga has not won in their last 2 matches but has a strong pre-season record, indicating potential for improvement under new management [3] - Historical performance shows Cluj has won both previous encounters against Braga in the Champions League 13 years ago, but Braga is expected to perform better in this matchup [3] Group 3 - Thessaloniki's recent form includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in pre-season matches, suggesting an upward trend in performance [4] - Wolfsberger has struggled in their recent league match, losing 0-2, but had a strong showing in the Austrian Cup [4] - Thessaloniki is favored to win due to their overall stronger squad and Wolfsberger's lack of European experience [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing European Championship has seen a rise in unexpected outcomes, challenging traditional betting logic and creating a new dynamic in the betting market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Over 7 matches in the current European Championship have seen odds of 2.8 or higher for "upset" outcomes, including strong teams like England and France underperforming [3]. - The betting market is experiencing significant emotional fluctuations, with increased betting on popular teams not necessarily reflecting their actual winning probabilities [6]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - Tactical diversity and rotation among strong teams have led to uncertainty, with some teams appearing to "take it easy" in group stages to conserve energy for knockout rounds [4]. - Players' physical conditions are not at peak levels due to the short interval between the current tournament and club seasons, making timely updates on player injuries crucial for accurate betting decisions [5]. - The rise of emotional betting has distorted market judgments, emphasizing the need for rational analysis over emotional responses [6]. Group 3: New Approaches for Bettors - A professional and neutral reference platform, such as Morgan Sports, has introduced a "European Championship dedicated data model" to assist both novice and experienced bettors in making informed decisions [7]. - Key features of the new model include automatic alerts for unusual betting patterns, analysis of hot and cold indices to avoid emotional betting, and tracking player conditions down to training and recovery data [8]. Group 4: Adjusting Betting Logic - Bettors are advised to prioritize short-term performance over long-term historical data, focusing on recent physical conditions, lineups, and team morale [10]. - Unusual changes in betting lines should be given higher priority than star player reputations, as they may indicate shifts in underlying information [11]. - Identifying upsets should rely on data models rather than gut feelings, as data can provide clearer insights into potential outcomes [12].