CME Group (NasdaqGS:CME) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 22, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsDerek Sammann - Senior Managing DirectorTim McCourt - Senior Managing DirectorSuzanne Sprague - COOAdam Minick - Executive Director of Investor RelationsJulie Winkler - Chief Commercial OfficerTerry Duffy - Chairman and CEOLynne Fitzpatrick - CFOSunil Cutinho - CIOMike Dennis - Global Head of Fixed IncomeConference Call ParticipantsDan Fannon - Senior Research AnalystWill Chi - AnalystBrian Bedell - AnalystChris ...

（原标题：硅谷这个新风口，顶级VC追着投！） 预测市场（Prediction Market），正在成为硅谷投资机构最关注的行业之一。10月份，先后有两家企业 获得巨额融资，而芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）官宣下场，也意味着预测市场开始走向主流化。 Kalshi获3亿美元融资 10月10日，美国预测市场平台Kalshi完成D轮超过3亿美元的融资，估值飙升到50亿美元。这一轮融资由 红杉资本和a16z领投，跟投方则包括了Paradigm、Coinbase Ventures、General Catalyst、Spark Capital和 Capital G等知名投资机构。 2018年，毕业于麻省理工学院的塔里克·曼苏尔和卢阿纳·洛佩斯·拉拉创立了Kalshi。两人都曾在高盛、 桥水、城堡证券等知名金融机构工作过。他们观察到许多投资决策都是由对未来事件的预测驱动的，但 市场存在一个空白：人们没有直接的方法可以直接交易事件结果。 例如，当时高盛的许多报告都在为机构提供英国脱欧的风险敞口或对冲。为此，高盛会以高价向它们出 售包括掉期、期权等复杂金融衍生品组合的投资产品。但投资者并不能直接在事件本身上进行交易，尽 ...

Market Overview - The US-China trade conflict has reignited concerns, leading to a significant global market pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,900 points and the Hang Seng Index declining nearly 1,000 points over five days[3] - The S&P 500 experienced its largest drop in six months, while the Golden Dragon China Index plummeted by 6.1%[3] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones dropped 878 points or 1.90%, closing at 45,479 points; the S&P 500 fell 2.71% to 6,552 points; and the Nasdaq decreased by 3.56% to 22,204 points[10] - In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index fell by 1.25%, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.86% and the German DAX and French CAC 40 down 1.5% and 1.53%, respectively[10] Currency and Commodity Trends - International oil prices dropped by 4% due to escalating US-China trade tensions, with NY crude oil falling to $58.9 per barrel, the lowest since May[26] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.6% to 98.978, while gold prices rose by 0.8% to $3,975.9 per ounce[26] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose sharply, with declines of 9-11 basis points across various maturities, driven by heightened risk aversion following Trump's tariff threats[5] - Asian investment-grade bond spreads widened by 1-3 basis points amid soft market conditions[30] A-Share Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,897.03 points, down 0.94%, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling by 2.70% and 4.55%, respectively[16] - The semiconductor sector led the decline, with notable drops in stocks like Huahong (down 11.88%) and SMIC (down 7.89%)[16] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with better valuation and performance alignment, particularly technology, manufacturing, and internet diagnostics, given the ongoing economic resilience and expected earnings growth in the US market[6]