华尔街金融巨头高盛集团(GS.US)在去年最后一个季度重新回到了华尔街股票资本市场(即ECM市场)营收排行榜的榜 首位置，高盛夺魁之际正值华尔街各大银行业巨头们争夺有望于2026年在美股市场进行首次公开募股(IPO)大型项目 (包括OpenAI、Anthropic以及SpaceX等)的承销角色。此外，高盛集团正在密切关注预测市场(Prediction Markets)领域 的重大投资机遇，希望借此在这一快速增长的且围绕现实世界事件下注的平台中获益，力争成为类似Polymarket这样 的预测市场平台。 这家总部位于纽约的金融巨头报告称，2025年最后三个月，其股票承销性质的营收约为5.21亿美元，超越了摩根士丹 利的4.94亿美元和摩根大通的4.16亿美元同项业务营收规模。 短期内难以逾越 高盛首席执行官大卫.所罗门表示，这一数字(2025年最后三个月的股票承销类营收数据)在短期内不太可能被超越。 如上图所示，高盛领跑华尔街第四季度股票承销业务。 "我猜测，股票资本市场的整体水平在2026年仍会明显低于2021年的峰值，但会稍微高于今年的水平，至于季度水平 则难以精准预测。"所罗门在周四的银行财报电话会议上告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of prediction markets, particularly Kalshi and Polymarket, as they gain mainstream attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, highlighting their potential as tools for forecasting events and the associated risks of being perceived as gambling platforms [4][6][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Prediction markets have seen significant engagement, with over $3 billion wagered on election outcomes, proving to be more accurate than traditional polls [4][5]. - Kalshi and Polymarket have both surpassed $1 billion valuations, attracting substantial investments from venture capitalists [5][17]. - The platforms allow users to bet on a variety of events, from geopolitical issues to pop culture, indicating a broadening of market interests [4][5]. Group 2: Operational Mechanisms - Unlike traditional gambling, prediction markets operate on a peer-to-peer betting model, where participants bet against each other rather than against a house [8][9]. - The value of event contracts fluctuates based on public sentiment and market dynamics, providing real-time insights into the probability of various outcomes [9][10]. - Kalshi has established a more compliant operational framework compared to Polymarket, which has faced legal challenges [13][16]. Group 3: Challenges and Controversies - The industry faces scrutiny over its ethical implications, with concerns that it may be viewed as a form of gambling rather than a legitimate forecasting tool [6][20]. - Both platforms have encountered regulatory hurdles, with Polymarket previously banned from operating in the U.S. due to compliance issues [12][16]. - The perception of prediction markets as "casinos" could undermine their credibility and long-term viability [6][20]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The sustainability of interest in prediction markets beyond major events like presidential elections remains uncertain [7][18]. - New competitors are emerging in the prediction market space, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [19]. - The platforms are exploring various revenue models, including transaction fees and partnerships with media and AI companies, to enhance profitability [19][20].

Core Insights - The prediction market is experiencing exponential growth, transitioning from a niche activity to a multi-billion dollar financial sector, driven by betting on sports, politics, and economic indicators [1] - Monthly betting amounts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion by November 2023, indicating a structural shift in pricing and trading public event outcomes through "event contracts" [1] Market Capitalization and Valuation - Kalshi raised $1 billion at a valuation of $11 billion, backed by prominent investors such as Paradigm, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and CapitalG [3] - Intercontinental Exchange announced a potential investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, bringing its valuation to approximately $8 billion, reflecting strong confidence from traditional financial institutions in prediction markets as a new type of financial derivative trading platform [3] Regulatory Landscape and Compliance - Despite many states in the U.S. prohibiting sports betting, prediction market platforms argue they offer financial contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than traditional gambling [4] - Polymarket received CFTC approval to operate in the U.S., allowing it to provide services through brokers and directly to customers, enhancing its legitimacy and public recognition, especially ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election [4] Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Although Polymarket previously dominated in trading volume, Kalshi has rapidly gained ground, with both platforms now holding roughly equal market shares, collectively reaching about $9 billion in total bets last month [5] - The competition has intensified, with both platforms forming partnerships with major sports leagues and engaging in aggressive marketing strategies, including collaborations with Google Finance and media outlets like CNN and CNBC [5] Diverse Betting Categories - In addition to political elections, economic data and pop culture have become popular betting subjects, with Kalshi users predicting an 80% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January [6] - The prediction market's reach has expanded into niche areas, with Kalshi users betting on the Rotten Tomatoes score of the latest "Avatar" movie and Polymarket users wagering on the winner of the reality show "Survivor" [6]

Group 1 - Robinhood officially launched a themed event called "YES/NO" on December 16, which is seen as a significant upgrade to its prediction market business and a direct challenge to traditional betting giants like DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as existing platforms like Kalshi [1] - Bank of America warns that this technological shift by a major tech player like Robinhood could fundamentally alter customer acquisition costs and fee structures across the industry [1] - Robinhood's recent announcement of a joint venture with Susquehanna Investment Group aims to reduce its reliance on Kalshi, potentially posing a competitive threat to DraftKings and FanDuel [1] Group 2 - The competition among Robinhood, Kalshi, and Polymarket in event contract fees is intensifying as they vie for user attention against established sports betting apps like FanDuel and DraftKings, which offer recognizable bonuses and promotions [2] - Robinhood plans to acquire a 90% stake in the derivatives exchange MIAXdx by November 2025, aiming to create a new federally regulated derivatives and prediction market trading platform, with the deal expected to close in early 2026 [2] - This acquisition will enable Robinhood to establish a fully autonomous and vertically integrated trading ecosystem, eliminating third-party platform fees and leveraging "zero-fee" and strong liquidity advantages to mainstream event contracts for retail investors [2] Group 3 - The new exchange will be managed by a joint venture, with Robinhood as the controlling party and Susquehanna acting as the liquidity provider from day one, aiming to expand Robinhood's rapidly growing "prediction contract" business [3] - Unlike traditional fixed-odds betting, prediction markets offer real-time pricing based on peer-to-peer pricing, providing more betting options on events that traditional bookmakers cannot cover [3] - Robinhood's prediction market business has seen rapid growth, with 9 billion contracts traded and over 1 million users participating since its launch, contributing to an annualized revenue exceeding $100 million in less than a year [3]

Core Insights - Kalshi has reached a valuation of $11 billion, making Luana Lopes Lara the youngest self-made female billionaire globally, surpassing Lucy Guo [3][7] - The company specializes in a new financial product that allows users to bet on the outcomes of future events, including elections and sports [9][10] - Kalshi's valuation increased from $2 billion in June to $11 billion in October, marking a more than fivefold rise in less than six months [7][10] Company Background - Luana Lopes Lara, a graduate of MIT with a degree in computer science, co-founded Kalshi with Tarek Mansour after their shared experiences at the university and internships [11][12] - The idea for Kalshi emerged from their belief that there should be a direct way to trade on the probabilities of events occurring, rather than through traditional financial markets [11][12] Regulatory Challenges - Kalshi faced significant regulatory hurdles, requiring federal approval to operate as a designated contract market, which they achieved in November 2020 [13][14] - The company has differentiated itself from competitors like Polymarket by obtaining regulatory approval, which has provided a competitive advantage [14] Recent Developments - Following a court ruling in September 2024, Kalshi became the first company in over a century to receive regulatory approval to offer election contracts [15] - The platform has maintained a trading volume of over $1 billion per week, with more than 90% of transactions coming from sports contracts [17] - Kalshi has formed partnerships with major brokerage firms and is expanding into the cryptocurrency space through collaborations with blockchain platforms [18]

Core Viewpoint - Gemini Space Station's stock surged nearly 13% after its derivatives trading division, Titan, received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC, allowing it to offer prediction market services to U.S. customers [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Titan plans to enter the prediction market space by offering event contracts that cover a range of topics from sports events to economic news [1] - U.S. customers will soon be able to trade event contracts on Gemini's web interface, with mobile app services to follow [1] - Gemini aims to create a "one-stop financial super app" and will explore expanding its derivatives product offerings for U.S. customers, including cryptocurrency futures, options, and perpetual contracts [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Cameron Winklevoss, President of Gemini, stated that prediction markets could potentially be as large as, or even larger than, traditional capital markets [1] - CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham supports the vision of innovation in this space, positioning the CFTC as a regulatory body that fosters business and innovation [1] - Other platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are pioneers in the prediction market sector, while Robinhood Markets also features a prediction market center [1]

Group 1 - Robinhood Markets Inc. and Susquehanna International Group are acquiring a majority stake in LedgerX, a regulated exchange previously associated with the bankrupt cryptocurrency business FTX, positioning themselves strongly in the growing prediction market sector [1] - LedgerX, now operated by Miami International Holdings, is a U.S. derivatives exchange that was once owned by FTX and has close ties to prediction markets, with Susquehanna acting as a market maker for Kalshi, a leading prediction market exchange [1] - The acquisition will allow Robinhood and Susquehanna to gain direct control over the infrastructure needed for listing and clearing event contracts, amidst competition from Wall Street, sports leagues, and crypto companies to shape the future of regulated speculative markets [1] Group 2 - The move may pose a challenge to Kalshi, which has relied on its partnership with Robinhood to push contracts to a broad user base, with over half of Kalshi's business coming from Robinhood in recent months [2] - Robinhood reported that its customers traded 2.3 billion event contracts in Q3, more than double the previous quarter, indicating strong demand for prediction markets [2] - Kalshi has faced significant legal uncertainties, including a recent ruling that requires it to be subject to gambling regulators, which has led to a halt in offering sports contracts in Nevada [2] Group 3 - Several companies interested in prediction markets have acquired regulated derivatives exchanges to offer competing contracts against Kalshi, including DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment's FanDuel [3] - LedgerX was initially a crypto-related derivatives platform and was one of the few solvent business units during FTX's bankruptcy, later acquired by MIAX for $50 million to expand its influence in the crypto sector [3] - MIAX will retain a 10% stake in the new business to maintain exposure to the risks associated with prediction markets [3]

Core Insights - Bank of America warns of explosive growth in prediction markets and sports betting, which may lead to excessive consumer debt and loan defaults [1][2] - The rapid expansion of online betting since the Supreme Court overturned the federal ban on sports betting is creating new credit risks for lenders [1] - The financial pressure from betting losses is particularly significant among low-income consumers, especially young males [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The marketing of gambling products amplifies participation, resulting in rising credit balances and higher loan loss rates [2] - Companies like Bread Financial Holdings, Upstart Holdings, and OneMain Holdings are most vulnerable to the impact of low-income or credit-pressured consumers [2] - The online betting market presents new risks for lenders that have not been historically encountered, necessitating adjustments to underwriting models [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Financial Impact - Recent studies indicate that in states where online gambling is allowed, average credit scores have dropped by nearly 1% and the likelihood of bankruptcy has increased by 28% after four years [1] - A survey cited by Bank of America reveals that 25% of gamblers have missed bill payments, and 45% lack sufficient funds to cover living expenses for three to six months [2] Group 3: Growth of Prediction Markets - Prediction markets have gained popularity by offering binary financial contracts linked to outcomes of elections and sports events, with nominal monthly trading volume exceeding $8.5 billion in October [3] - The growth is largely driven by contracts linked to sports events on platforms like Kalshi, which operates nationwide despite state-level regulatory opposition [3] - The design and gamified interface of these platforms blur the lines between investment and gambling, raising concerns about compulsive behavior and liquidity pressure among young and low-income consumers [3] Group 4: Industry Positioning - Prediction markets claim to offer a fairer model than sports betting companies by providing a neutral trading venue without directly betting against customers [4] - Kalshi's spokesperson emphasizes that their model is federally regulated and offers more transparent pricing, unlike traditional casinos [4] - Polymarket has recently cleared regulatory hurdles to re-enter the U.S. market after reaching a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [4]

Core Insights - Kalshi is expanding its business from political elections and sports events to the consumer goods sector, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance in the prediction market industry [1] - The company has partnered with StockX to launch event contracts based on resale prices of popular sneakers, trading cards, and collectible toys, allowing users to bet on whether certain products will exceed specific price thresholds [1][2] - This new business category targets the growing alternative asset market, including limited edition sneakers and trendy collectibles, which often resell for multiples of their retail prices [1][3] Event Contracts Covering Diverse Consumer Goods - Under the partnership, Kalshi will utilize StockX's data to create event contracts covering sneakers, trading cards, and collectibles, starting with high-demand products from major brands [2] - Initial contracts will include anticipated releases like Jordan sneakers, Supreme hoodies, and Labubu blind boxes, with trading on average resale prices beginning in November and December [2] - StockX's CEO highlighted this development as a natural evolution of a platform built on stock market mechanisms [2] Targeting the "Everything Exchange" Goal - Kalshi aims to create a "marketplace for everything," focusing on deep, liquid, and high-volume markets, aligning with the recent growth trends in alternative asset categories [3] - The expansion into sneakers and collectibles reflects the increasing interest in these markets, where resale prices can significantly exceed retail prices [3] Regulatory Uncertainty Persists - Despite the progress towards mainstream acceptance, the prediction market industry operates in a gray area between financial trading and gambling, facing regulatory uncertainties [4] - Kalshi's previous legal victory against U.S. regulators has led to explosive growth in the industry, with Kalshi and competitors like Polymarket Exchange actively seeking funding for expansion [4]

Core Insights - FanDuel is set to launch an independent prediction market application called "FanDuel Predicts" in December, as part of a collaboration between its parent company Flutter and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) [1] - DraftKings, a major competitor, has also announced plans to launch a similar platform named "DraftKings Predictions" shortly before FanDuel's announcement [2] - Following these announcements, Flutter's stock price fell by 4% in after-hours trading, indicating market reactions to the competitive landscape [2] Industry Overview - The core of prediction markets is "event contracts," which allow users to trade on the outcomes of future events, such as stock indices, economic data, and sports events [5] - Unlike state-regulated sports betting, event contracts are regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making them legal across the U.S. without the need to pay state-level gambling taxes [5] - This regulatory framework provides a pathway for companies to operate in states where sports betting has not yet been legalized, expanding their business opportunities [5]