智通财经APP获悉，当地时间12月16日，Robinhood (HOOD.US) 正式举办名为"YES/NO"的主题活动。 此次活动不仅是其预测市场业务的深度升级，更被市场视为对传统博彩巨头(如DraftKings和FanDuel)以 及现有预测平台Kalshi的"公开宣战"。美银等机构警告称，这场"技术派"科技巨头对"传统派"博彩公司 的降维打击，可能迫使整个行业的获客成本与费率标准发生根本性逆转。 "据我们交流，在线体育博彩投资者似乎把Kalshi的任何负面都视为在线体育博彩运营商的利好，但我 们认为像Robinhood这样的大型科技公司加码投资，对DraftKings(DKNG.US)和FanDuel而言是竞争威 胁。"该行分析师Julie Hoover警告称。 美国银行认为，由于Robinhood近日宣布与Susquehanna Investment Group成立垂直整合的预测市场合资 企业，该公司可能会借机凸显对Kalshi依赖度的下降。 另一大关注点是，Robinhood、Kalshi与Polymarket在事件合约手续费上的竞争力度——它们要与 FanDuel、DraftKings和BetMG ...

以下文章来源于福布斯 ，作者Forbes 福布斯 . "Forbes福布斯"品牌始终秉承企业家精神和创新精神，坚持专业、公正、创新和进取的价值观，中国地 区业务涵盖广告、咨询、调研、策划、会议及展览服务等。 来源丨福布斯（ID： forbes_china ） 作者丨 Alicia Park 翻译丨Björn&Rach 图源丨 KALSHI 目前Kalshi的估值已达110亿美元，这使29岁的洛佩斯·拉拉成为全球最年轻的白手起家女性亿万富 豪，取代了4月从泰勒·斯威夫特（Taylor Swift）手中接过这一头衔的31岁Scale AI联合创始人Lucy Guo。 图源： KALSHI 不过这位巴西籍创业者仍称高中时代是 "人生中最煎熬的岁月"：在巴西的 Bolshoi Theater School ，芭蕾老师会在她做抬腿至耳侧的动作时，将点燃的香烟放到她大腿下方 —— 测试她能保持动作多 久而不被灼伤。舞者之间为争夺晋级机会， 会在彼此的舞鞋里藏碎玻璃片，而这个残酷的培养项目 还 要求她早上 7 点至中午学习文化课，下午 1 点至晚上 9 点上芭蕾课。 甘愿 接受 芭蕾训练的严苛与高强度 只是她宏大抱负的一小 ...

Gemini 总裁 Cameron Winklevoss 表示："预测市场有可能与传统资本市场一样大，甚至更大。CFTC代 理主席Caroline Pham 理解这一愿景及其重要性。与她的前任不同，代理主席 Pham 将 CFTC 定位为一个 支持商业、支持创新的监管机构，这将使美国在这些新兴且令人兴奋的市场中保持领先地位。" Kalshi和 Polymarket等平台均是预测市场的先行者。同样提供加密货币交易的 Robinhood Markets (HOOD.US)也拥有一个预测市场中心。 智通财经APP获悉，加密货币交易所 Gemini Space Station (GEMI.US) 的股票在周三夜盘交易中飙升近 13%，此前其衍生品交易部门Titan获得了美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)颁发的指定合约市场(DCM) 许可证，可以开始向美国客户提供预测市场服务。Gemini Titan计划通过提供事件合约进入预测市场领 域，这些合约包含关于未来事件的是非题，涵盖体育赛事到经济新闻等各个方面。 该公司表示，美国客户很快就能在其网页界面上交易事件合约，移动应用程序也将提供相关服务。作为 Gemini努力为客 ...

Group 1 - Robinhood Markets Inc. and Susquehanna International Group are acquiring a majority stake in LedgerX, a regulated exchange previously associated with the bankrupt cryptocurrency business FTX, positioning themselves strongly in the growing prediction market sector [1] - LedgerX, now operated by Miami International Holdings, is a U.S. derivatives exchange that was once owned by FTX and has close ties to prediction markets, with Susquehanna acting as a market maker for Kalshi, a leading prediction market exchange [1] - The acquisition will allow Robinhood and Susquehanna to gain direct control over the infrastructure needed for listing and clearing event contracts, amidst competition from Wall Street, sports leagues, and crypto companies to shape the future of regulated speculative markets [1] Group 2 - The move may pose a challenge to Kalshi, which has relied on its partnership with Robinhood to push contracts to a broad user base, with over half of Kalshi's business coming from Robinhood in recent months [2] - Robinhood reported that its customers traded 2.3 billion event contracts in Q3, more than double the previous quarter, indicating strong demand for prediction markets [2] - Kalshi has faced significant legal uncertainties, including a recent ruling that requires it to be subject to gambling regulators, which has led to a halt in offering sports contracts in Nevada [2] Group 3 - Several companies interested in prediction markets have acquired regulated derivatives exchanges to offer competing contracts against Kalshi, including DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment's FanDuel [3] - LedgerX was initially a crypto-related derivatives platform and was one of the few solvent business units during FTX's bankruptcy, later acquired by MIAX for $50 million to expand its influence in the crypto sector [3] - MIAX will retain a 10% stake in the new business to maintain exposure to the risks associated with prediction markets [3]

Core Insights - Bank of America warns of explosive growth in prediction markets and sports betting, which may lead to excessive consumer debt and loan defaults [1][2] - The rapid expansion of online betting since the Supreme Court overturned the federal ban on sports betting is creating new credit risks for lenders [1] - The financial pressure from betting losses is particularly significant among low-income consumers, especially young males [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The marketing of gambling products amplifies participation, resulting in rising credit balances and higher loan loss rates [2] - Companies like Bread Financial Holdings, Upstart Holdings, and OneMain Holdings are most vulnerable to the impact of low-income or credit-pressured consumers [2] - The online betting market presents new risks for lenders that have not been historically encountered, necessitating adjustments to underwriting models [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Financial Impact - Recent studies indicate that in states where online gambling is allowed, average credit scores have dropped by nearly 1% and the likelihood of bankruptcy has increased by 28% after four years [1] - A survey cited by Bank of America reveals that 25% of gamblers have missed bill payments, and 45% lack sufficient funds to cover living expenses for three to six months [2] Group 3: Growth of Prediction Markets - Prediction markets have gained popularity by offering binary financial contracts linked to outcomes of elections and sports events, with nominal monthly trading volume exceeding $8.5 billion in October [3] - The growth is largely driven by contracts linked to sports events on platforms like Kalshi, which operates nationwide despite state-level regulatory opposition [3] - The design and gamified interface of these platforms blur the lines between investment and gambling, raising concerns about compulsive behavior and liquidity pressure among young and low-income consumers [3] Group 4: Industry Positioning - Prediction markets claim to offer a fairer model than sports betting companies by providing a neutral trading venue without directly betting against customers [4] - Kalshi's spokesperson emphasizes that their model is federally regulated and offers more transparent pricing, unlike traditional casinos [4] - Polymarket has recently cleared regulatory hurdles to re-enter the U.S. market after reaching a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [4]

Core Insights - Kalshi is expanding its business from political elections and sports events to the consumer goods sector, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance in the prediction market industry [1] - The company has partnered with StockX to launch event contracts based on resale prices of popular sneakers, trading cards, and collectible toys, allowing users to bet on whether certain products will exceed specific price thresholds [1][2] - This new business category targets the growing alternative asset market, including limited edition sneakers and trendy collectibles, which often resell for multiples of their retail prices [1][3] Event Contracts Covering Diverse Consumer Goods - Under the partnership, Kalshi will utilize StockX's data to create event contracts covering sneakers, trading cards, and collectibles, starting with high-demand products from major brands [2] - Initial contracts will include anticipated releases like Jordan sneakers, Supreme hoodies, and Labubu blind boxes, with trading on average resale prices beginning in November and December [2] - StockX's CEO highlighted this development as a natural evolution of a platform built on stock market mechanisms [2] Targeting the "Everything Exchange" Goal - Kalshi aims to create a "marketplace for everything," focusing on deep, liquid, and high-volume markets, aligning with the recent growth trends in alternative asset categories [3] - The expansion into sneakers and collectibles reflects the increasing interest in these markets, where resale prices can significantly exceed retail prices [3] Regulatory Uncertainty Persists - Despite the progress towards mainstream acceptance, the prediction market industry operates in a gray area between financial trading and gambling, facing regulatory uncertainties [4] - Kalshi's previous legal victory against U.S. regulators has led to explosive growth in the industry, with Kalshi and competitors like Polymarket Exchange actively seeking funding for expansion [4]

Core Insights - FanDuel is set to launch an independent prediction market application called "FanDuel Predicts" in December, as part of a collaboration between its parent company Flutter and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) [1] - DraftKings, a major competitor, has also announced plans to launch a similar platform named "DraftKings Predictions" shortly before FanDuel's announcement [2] - Following these announcements, Flutter's stock price fell by 4% in after-hours trading, indicating market reactions to the competitive landscape [2] Industry Overview - The core of prediction markets is "event contracts," which allow users to trade on the outcomes of future events, such as stock indices, economic data, and sports events [5] - Unlike state-regulated sports betting, event contracts are regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making them legal across the U.S. without the need to pay state-level gambling taxes [5] - This regulatory framework provides a pathway for companies to operate in states where sports betting has not yet been legalized, expanding their business opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood's third-quarter net profit surged to $556 million, nearly tripling compared to last year, driven by significant growth in cryptocurrency revenue and a new "event contract" business that saw explosive growth in trading volume [1][3][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter reached $1.27 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.21 billion [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $742 million, surpassing the expected $726.9 million [7]. - Earnings per share were $0.61, above the anticipated $0.53 and significantly higher than last year's $0.17 [8]. - Monthly active users reached 13.8 million, exceeding the forecast of 13.31 million [11]. - Average revenue per user (ARPU) was $191, higher than the expected $182 [10]. Revenue Breakdown - Transaction-based revenue for the third quarter was $730 million, above the expected $725.8 million [12]. - Cryptocurrency revenue soared by 300% to $268 million, although it fell short of the expected $287.2 million [13]. - Options revenue was $304 million, slightly above the forecast of $301.3 million [14]. New Growth Areas - The "event contract" business experienced explosive growth, with trading volume reaching 2.3 billion contracts in the third quarter, more than double the previous quarter [15]. - In October alone, trading volume surpassed 2.5 billion contracts, contributing approximately $25 million to the platform's revenue [15]. - The company has expanded the scope of event contracts beyond sports and finance to include politics, entertainment, and technology [15]. Executive Changes - CFO Jason Warnick announced plans to retire in 2026, with Shiv Verma appointed as his successor to ensure a smooth transition [3][18]. Strategic Direction - Robinhood is diversifying its revenue sources to reduce reliance on trading, with plans to launch banking and venture capital services [17][19]. - The company aims to position itself as a comprehensive financial technology competitor, appealing to a new generation of investors [20].

Core Insights - The recent comments made by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong during the earnings call have drawn significant attention, highlighting the intersection of cryptocurrency trading and prediction markets [1][4] - Armstrong's remarks about specific keywords related to cryptocurrency trading inadvertently influenced trading outcomes in prediction markets, showcasing the potential for manipulation within these platforms [1][4] Company Developments - Coinbase is expanding its "event contract" business as part of a strategy to create a "universal exchange" that encompasses all financial products [3] - The company holds stakes in prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, which are gaining traction in the U.S. market [3] Industry Trends - Prediction markets have become increasingly popular, allowing users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, such as elections and economic decisions, often referenced by capital markets and mainstream media [2] - Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying around prediction markets, particularly concerning the potential for manipulation, as highlighted by Armstrong's comments and the subsequent reactions from industry stakeholders [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Polymarket is preparing to re-enter the U.S. market focusing on sports betting after being expelled for illegal trading, with plans to launch by the end of November [1][4]. Company Summary - Polymarket was expelled from the U.S. market nearly three years ago due to illegal trading and paid a $1.4 million fine to settle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [1]. - The company has acquired QCX, which holds a CFTC license for derivatives trading and clearing, as a strategic move to ensure compliance for its return [2]. - The U.S. version of Polymarket's website has set up a waiting list for users to register for updates on the platform's launch [4]. Industry Summary - The return of Polymarket coincides with explosive growth in the prediction market industry, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allowing users to bet on various events [6]. - Kalshi recently won a lawsuit against U.S. regulators, allowing it to trade on "event contracts," significantly advancing the industry [6]. - The industry is attracting attention from major institutions, with the CME Group considering launching its own sports betting contracts after partnering with FanDuel [6]. - Despite positive industry prospects, prediction market companies face a complex regulatory environment and ongoing legal challenges, with some state regulators explicitly prohibiting operations [6][7]. - Kalshi has filed a lawsuit against the New York State Gaming Commission, highlighting the tension between federal jurisdiction and state regulatory power in the sports betting sector [7].