如果用一个词概括HBM这几年的进化，那就是：堆得越来越高。HBM本质上是一种"把 DRAM 垂直叠起来"的存储技术。层数越高，单颗 HBM 的容量越 大、带宽越高，对 AI GPU 来说就越香——因为 AI 真正稀缺的从来不是算力，而是喂数据的速度。 因此，HBM 的演进路线也非常清晰：从4层到8层、12层，再逼近16 层。8 层是 HBM 真正成熟、规模化出货的主力，它是过去一段时间 AI GPU 的"最常 见配置"，良率稳定、供应链也最成熟；12层则成为近两年的主力量产方向，在容量、性能与成本之间取得了更理想的平衡，也最适合大规模出货。而截 至目前，HBM 已经正式迈入16层堆叠的量产前夜：在刚刚结束的 CES 2026 上，SK 海力士已经展出了全球首款16层 HBM4 样品，单堆栈容量提升至 48GB。 但层数的提升，并不只是"多堆几层"这么简单。事实上，每增加 4 层，整个系统的制造难度都会显著上一个台阶：贴装精度、焊点间距、Z 方向高度控 制、翘曲、底填（MUF）可靠性……所有原本还能被工艺余量掩盖的问题，都会被 16 层这种高度放大到"生死线"级别。 面对困局，行业分化出了两种声音：一种是追求终 ...

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of HBM technology is characterized by increasing stack heights, enhancing capacity and bandwidth, which is crucial for AI GPUs due to their need for high data feeding speeds [1]. Group 1: HBM Technology Development - HBM has progressed from 4 layers to 8 layers, 12 layers, and is approaching 16 layers, with 8 layers being the most common configuration for AI GPUs [1]. - The introduction of 16-layer HBM4 has been showcased by SK Hynix, with a single stack capacity of 48GB [1]. - Increasing the number of layers significantly raises manufacturing challenges, including precision in mounting, solder joint spacing, and reliability issues [1]. Group 2: Hybrid Bonding and Fluxless Technology - Hybrid bonding is a cutting-edge interconnection technology that eliminates solder and flux, aiming for direct connections with higher I/O density [4]. - The recent JEDEC revision allows for a height increase in HBM modules, providing more space for traditional micro-bump technology [6]. - Fluxless technology is emerging as a transitional solution to address the limitations of traditional interconnection methods, particularly in high-density applications [8][12]. Group 3: TCB and Its Variants - Thermal Compression Bonding (TCB) is a key method for HBM stacking, allowing for higher interconnect density and precision [9][10]. - TCB has various types, including TC-CUF, TC-MUF, TC-NCP, and TC-NCF, each addressing specific challenges in high-density applications [12]. - The industry is moving towards Fluxless TCB to mitigate issues related to solder residues and improve yield and reliability [12][13]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives and Equipment Suppliers - SK Hynix remains cautious about adopting Fluxless technology for HBM4, preferring to continue with its Advanced MR-MUF process [19][21]. - BESI is seen as a proponent of hybrid bonding, focusing on preparing for future demands while facing short-term challenges due to slower-than-expected adoption rates [24]. - ASMPT emphasizes TCB as the core platform for HBM stacking, particularly during the transition from 12 to 16 layers, while also pushing for Fluxless advancements [25][26]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Hanmi Semiconductor is positioned as a key player in the "improvement route," optimizing TCB equipment for SK Hynix's processes [27]. - Hanwha Precision Machinery is emerging as a competitor, developing TCB equipment and exploring Fluxless technology to disrupt the existing supply chain [28]. - Kulicke & Soffa (K&S) is recognized for its stability and large-scale manufacturing experience, serving as a foundational player in the industry [29]. Conclusion - The delay in Fluxless technology adoption highlights the complexities of advanced packaging, emphasizing the need for a balance between innovation and production stability [31].