JD Logistics, Inc. 3Q25 Preview Summary Company Overview - **Company**: JD Logistics, Inc. (2618.HK) - **Industry**: Transportation & Infrastructure - **Market Cap**: HK$83,181 million - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: HK$13.00 - **Current Price (as of Oct 13, 2025)**: HK$12.52 Key Takeaways Revenue Growth - **Top-line growth** is expected to accelerate to **21% YoY** in 3Q25, primarily driven by the **food-delivery business**, contributing **8 percentage points** to growth [2][8] - Excluding food delivery, revenue from JD Group is estimated to grow at approximately **20% YoY**, consistent with 1H25 but softer compared to 2Q25 [2] - **External ISC** revenue growth remains robust, with double-digit growth in customer numbers and year-over-year improvement in **Average Revenue Per Customer (ARPC)** [2] Profitability Concerns - **Non-IFRS net profit** is projected to decline by **20% YoY** in 3Q25, contrasting with a **5% growth** in 2Q25 [3][8] - **Net margin** is expected to narrow to **3.8%** in 3Q25, down from **5.0%** in 2Q25 and **5.8%** in 3Q24, primarily due to front-loaded investments in labor, vehicles, and outsourced resources, along with poor performance from **Deppon** [3][8] Subsidiary Performance - **Deppon** is anticipated to face revenue and profit pressures in 3Q25 due to low seasonality, competition, and adjustments in product mix [4] - **Kuayue** is expected to maintain relatively stable revenue and profit growth [4] Investment Outlook - Despite the anticipated profit decline, the company expects mid single-digit profit growth for the full year, attributed to improved efficiency during peak season [8] - There are currently no plans for financing or shareholder returns [8] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected revenue growth from JD's optimization efforts, strong external demand, and improved cost controls [15] - **Downside Risks**: Slower revenue growth due to soft demand, limited synergies with Deppon or JD.com, and potential overruns in front-loaded investments [15] Financial Metrics (Estimates) - **Revenue (Rmb million)**: - 2025e: 214,360 - 2026e: 237,402 - 2027e: 256,954 - **Net Income (Rmb million)**: - 2025e: 7,881 - 2026e: 8,964 - 2027e: 9,740 - **P/E Ratios**: - 2025e: 9.7 - 2026e: 8.5 - 2027e: 7.8 - **Free Cash Flow Yield Ratio (%)**: - 2025e: 18.7 - 2026e: 19.3 - 2027e: 20.8 [6][8] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the JD Logistics, Inc. 3Q25 preview, highlighting the company's revenue growth, profitability challenges, subsidiary performance, and investment outlook.

Key Takeaways JD shares have dropped 19.1% in a year, underperforming the sector and the broader industry.Food delivery led to a RMB 14.8 billion Q2 operating loss, straining JD's margins and delaying profitability.Zacks expects Q3 2025 EPS to be 44 cents, a 64.52% decline, as diversification pressures near-term results.JD.com (JD) shares have plunged 18.4% in the past year, underperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry’s growth of 18.7% and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector’s return of 11.6%. The de ...

Drone Delivery Industry Overview - Drone delivery is seen as a game-changer, but faces regulatory and safety hurdles [1] - Current food delivery methods using trucks are inefficient compared to drone delivery [2] - The industry is focusing on overcoming challenges like collision avoidance and FAA regulations [1][11][12] Company Strategy & Goals - The company's platform is designed to deliver anything, but is currently focused on food delivery in suburban areas [4] - The goal is to deliver food within 5 minutes at a cost of $2-3, eliminating human involvement [5][10] - The company aims to cover the entire Dallas-Fort Worth metro area by 2026 [6] Cost & Revenue Model - Drone delivery aims to significantly reduce costs compared to traditional methods by eliminating the need for drivers and cars [8][9] - The company operates on a pay-per-flight model, charging platforms like Uber Eats for each delivery [10][11] - The company handles all aspects of the delivery process, including safety, maintenance, FAA certification, and drone construction [11][12] Technological Advantages - Drone delivery offers point-to-point speed and efficiency, avoiding traffic congestion [8] - The drones are lightweight (20 lb) and energy-efficient [8] - Autonomy is a key component, similar to self-driving cars, to lower the cost of service [9]

Core Viewpoint - The rideshare market is growing, and investors are evaluating whether to invest in Lyft or Uber, with Lyft showing a significant turnaround in 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Uber has historically outperformed Lyft, with a total return of 137% since going public, while Lyft has seen a 56% loss [2]. - Lyft's stock has increased by 75% year-to-date in 2025, surpassing Uber's performance [2]. - Uber's revenue grew by 18% year-over-year to $12.7 billion, while Lyft's revenue grew by 11% to $1.6 billion [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Uber's growth is attributed to its international market exposure and additional services like food and grocery delivery, while Lyft's market share in the U.S. has increased from 26% to 30%-31% [6]. - Lyft's CEO noted the growth in rideshare market share, but Uber's revenue growth remains strong despite Lyft's reduced market share [6]. Group 3: Business Model and Optionality - Uber has more optionality, meaning it can easily add new products and services, while Lyft is currently limited to ridesharing [8]. - Uber's global operations and diverse service offerings create a competitive advantage over Lyft, which is focused solely on ridesharing [8][9]. Group 4: Valuation Comparison - Lyft has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.55, compared to Uber's P/S ratio of 4.49, indicating that Lyft is cheaper [12][13]. - Despite Uber's advantages in revenue growth and optionality, Lyft's lower valuation and potential for profitability expansion make it an attractive option for investors [13][14].

Group 1: Company Overview - JD.com has established itself as a significant e-commerce player in China, despite not leading in flashy discount applications or live-stream shopping [2] - The company's stock has increased by 14% over the past year, compared to a 17% rise for the S&P 500, indicating a solid growth narrative supported by robust revenue trends and new business expansions [3] Group 2: Revenue Growth - JD.com's revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 8.2% over the past three years, with a 14% increase in the last twelve months, rising from RMB 1.1 trillion to RMB 1.3 trillion [5] - In Q2 2025, JD reported revenues of RMB 356.7 billion ($49.8 billion), marking a 22.4% year-over-year increase from RMB 291 billion, with general merchandise sales up by 16.4% and food delivery services nearly tripling with a 199% increase [5] Group 3: User Engagement and Logistics - JD's logistics framework now covers over 90% of China, enabling same- and next-day delivery, which enhances B2B relations [6] - There is a 40% year-over-year increase in quarterly active users and purchase frequency, indicating rising consumer involvement [6] Group 4: Profitability and Market Challenges - Despite strong revenue growth, JD's net income has decreased due to significant investments in food delivery and logistics, highlighting challenges in profitability [8] - The competitive landscape is intense, with major players like Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Meituan, and ByteDance vying for market share, alongside potential regulatory changes and macroeconomic pressures affecting retail expenditure [8][9]

Group 1: Chipotle Mexican Grill - Activist investor Bill Ackman has been steadily reducing his stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill, selling approximately 85% of his position over the last seven years, from a peak of 144,123,150 shares to 21,541,177 shares by the midpoint of 2025 [9][11] - Chipotle's comparable-restaurant sales have declined by 4% in the June-ended quarter compared to the previous year, indicating a nearly 5% drop in total transactions despite a 0.9% increase in the average check [12] - The trailing-12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Chipotle stands at 34, which is considered high given the stagnation in organic sales growth [14] Group 2: Uber Technologies - Ackman has built a significant stake in Uber Technologies, amounting to 30,301,161 shares, which represents approximately 21% of Pershing Square's invested assets by the midpoint of 2025 [16] - The global ride-sharing market is projected to grow from $87.7 billion this year to $918.2 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 34.1% [17] - Uber holds a dominant market share in the U.S. ride-sharing sector, accounting for 76% as of March 2024, with a consistent share in the high-60% to mid-70% range since 2017 [20]

Core Insights - Meituan is a leading Chinese e-commerce platform specializing in on-demand local life services, including food delivery, in-store dining, and hotel bookings, with a market capitalization of approximately US$107.57 billion [1] Performance Rankings - Meituan achieved a Profitable Growth rank of 1, maintaining its top position compared to the previous period, indicating world-class performance among 970 large consumer discretionary companies globally [5] - The Profitability rank of 1 remained unchanged from the prior period, reflecting consistent world-class performance compared to peers [5] - The Growth rank of 1 also stayed the same as the previous period, further underscoring Meituan's world-class standing in the industry [5]

Summary of Meituan's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Meituan (3690.HK) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Price Target Adjustment**: Price target reduced from HK$150.00 to HK$135.00 due to ongoing losses and competitive pressures [1] - **3Q Loss Expectations**: Anticipated on-demand operating profit (OP) loss of Rmb15 billion for 3Q, with a CLC OP loss of Rmb10 billion [3][5] - **2Q Performance**: Total revenue increased by 12% YoY, but missed estimates; adjusted EBITDA was Rmb2.8 billion, significantly below expectations [27] - **Core Local Commerce (CLC)**: CLC revenue grew by 8% YoY, but OP fell by 76% to Rmb3.7 billion, missing estimates due to intensified competition [27] - **New Initiatives**: Revenue from new initiatives rose by 23%, but operating loss was Rmb1.9 billion, better than expected due to overseas investments [27] Market Dynamics - **Competition**: Increased competition since May, particularly during the 618 festival, has led to significant losses in the on-demand segment [2][3] - **Subsidy Impact**: Anticipated acceleration in on-demand volume to high teens due to increased subsidies, but profitability is expected to decline due to price competition [3] - **Market Share**: Despite aggressive subsidies, Meituan maintains a solid GTV share of over 70% in high-quality orders [4] Long-Term Outlook - **Cost Efficiency**: Long-term competitiveness is believed to be intact due to cost efficiency, with per-order losses only one-third of competitors [4] - **Future Projections**: Long-term estimates for food delivery GTV margin projected at 2.3% and user efficiency (UE) at Rmb1.08 [54] - **Investment Strategy**: Focus on high-quality orders and effective investment in new initiatives expected to expand the addressable market [63] Risks and Challenges - **Earnings Pressure**: Near-term uncertainties and competitive pressures pose risks to earnings, making it difficult for Meituan to control competition pace [5][54] - **Market Fragmentation**: The quick commerce market is expected to split among multiple players, impacting Meituan's market share [54] Valuation and Recommendations - **Valuation Methodology**: Price target of HK$135 implies a target P/E of 17x for 2026 estimates, comparable to Tencent's 19x [31] - **Investment Rating**: Maintained an Overweight (OW) rating despite short-term challenges, with some earnings pressure already priced in [5] Additional Important Information - **Share Repurchase**: Meituan repurchased HK$391 million worth of shares in 2Q [27] - **Market Capitalization**: Current market cap is approximately US$92.66 billion [7] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Meituan's recent conference call, highlighting the company's current challenges, competitive landscape, and long-term strategies.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan is Overweight (OW) with a price target reduced to HK$150.00 from HK$160.00, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$118.60 [8][27]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant decline in operating profit (OP) for Meituan, estimating a 48% year-over-year decrease in 2Q25 to Rmb8 billion, with further declines expected in subsequent quarters due to intensified competition [1][2][3]. - Long-term profitability forecasts have been adjusted downward, with the food delivery gross transaction value (GTV) margin now projected at 2.4% and the unit economics (UE) at Rmb1.15, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [5][39]. - The total revenue for 2025 is forecasted at Rmb276 billion, representing a 10% year-over-year growth, but with a significant drop in operating profit expected [4][26]. Financial Estimates - For 2Q25, CLC revenue is estimated at Rmb67 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year, while operating profit is expected to decline to Rmb8 billion [2]. - The full-year 2025 estimates include total revenues of Rmb371.6 billion and an operating profit of Rmb30 billion, down 43% year-over-year [4][26]. - Adjusted EBITDA forecasts have been cut by 43% for 2025 and 27% for 2026, reflecting the anticipated challenges in profitability [6]. Market Position and Competition - Meituan is expected to maintain its dominance in the food delivery market, although market share may decrease to over 65% from the current 70-75% due to increased competition [5][38]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for quick commerce is projected to expand, but the market is likely to be fragmented among multiple players [5][38]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 12% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [27][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for JD.com Inc. with a 12-month target price of US$50 and HK$194 for the Hong Kong listing, indicating an upside potential of 48.6% and 46.4% respectively [2][16]. Core Insights - JD.com is viewed as an underappreciated differentiated business within the Chinese internet sector, benefiting from domestic consumption policies and category expansion, which are expected to drive further valuation multiple expansion [2]. - The company anticipates sustained healthy growth momentum in JD Retail, expecting double-digit growth in both top line and profit, supported by enhanced procurement capabilities [1]. - The food delivery segment is seen as a synergistic extension of JD Retail, enhancing user engagement and attracting new customers while improving fulfillment efficiency [1][11]. Summary by Sections JD Retail Outlook - JD.com expects continued double-digit growth in JD Retail, driven by improved procurement capabilities and economies of scale [1]. - The company has observed healthy user retention and positive repeat purchase rates among early food delivery users [1]. Food Delivery Business - Food delivery is integrated into JD's broader retail strategy, enhancing user experience and increasing consumption frequency [1]. - The company aims to differentiate its food delivery service through quality offerings and lower merchant charges, while also focusing on user engagement and operational improvements [11]. Financial Projections - JD.com projects total revenue growth from Rmb1,158.8 billion in 2022 to Rmb1,484.2 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% [12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 16% over the forecast period, with net income projected to grow from Rmb44.7 billion in 2022 to Rmb58.7 billion by 2027 [12].