Group 1 - CME Group is set to announce its Q3 2025 earnings on October 22, with projected revenue of approximately $1.53 billion, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decrease, and anticipated earnings of about $2.63 per share [2] - The exchange recorded its second-highest average daily volume (ADV) in Q3 2025, reaching 25.3 million contracts, with cryptocurrency contracts hitting a record quarterly ADV of 340,000 contracts [2] - CME Group has a current market capitalization of $96 billion, generating $6.4 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $4.2 billion and net income of $3.8 billion [3] Group 2 - Historical data shows that over the last five years, CME Group had 20 recorded earnings data points, with positive one-day (1D) returns occurring about 45% of the time, increasing to 50% over the last three years [5] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 3.4%, while the median for the 11 negative returns is -1.8% [5] - A strategy to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be employed, with a focus on pairs that show the highest correlation for trading decisions [6]

Valued at $95.4 billion by market cap, CME Group Inc. (CME) is the world's largest and most diverse derivatives marketplace, operating major exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The company, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, provides crucial platforms for trading futures and options across a wide range of asset classes, including interest rates, energy, and equity indexes. The leading derivatives marketplace is expected to announce its fiscal thi ...

Core Insights - CME Group reported its second-highest August average daily volume (ADV) of 28.1 million contracts, following a record of 31.7 million contracts in August 2024 [1] - The company continues to lead in the derivatives marketplace, providing a wide range of products across various asset classes [2] Volume Highlights - Interest Rate ADV reached 16.2 million contracts - Equity Index ADV was 6.3 million contracts - Energy ADV totaled 2.2 million contracts - Agricultural ADV amounted to 1.9 million contracts - Metals ADV was 688,000 contracts - Foreign Exchange ADV reached 670,000 contracts - Cryptocurrency ADV set a record at 411,000 contracts, representing $14.9 billion in notional value [4] Product Performance - Ultra 10-Year U.S. Treasury futures ADV increased by 10% to 1 million contracts - 30 Day Fed Funds futures ADV rose by 6% to 517,000 contracts - Soybean futures ADV surged by 33% to 274,000 contracts - Corn options ADV increased by 62% to 134,000 contracts - Micro Gold futures ADV grew by 54% to 190,000 contracts - Record monthly Micro Ether futures ADV reached 271,000 contracts, while Ether futures ADV was 27,000 contracts [4] Micro Products and Repo Market - Micro E-mini Equity Index futures and options ADV of 2.5 million contracts accounted for 38.9% of overall Equity Index ADV - Micro WTI Crude Oil futures represented 2.4% of overall Energy ADV - BrokerTec U.S. Repo average daily notional value (ADNV) increased by 29% to a record $380 billion, while European Repo ADNV rose by 3% to €281.3 billion [4]

Core Insights - CME Group Inc. reported record financial results for Q2 2025, with revenue of $1.7 billion, up 10% from Q2 2024, and operating income of $1.1 billion [2][8] - The average daily volume (ADV) reached a record 30.2 million contracts, reflecting a 16% increase year-over-year, driven by heightened demand for benchmark futures and options [2][8] - The company experienced a significant increase in new retail traders, with a 57% year-over-year growth, contributing to a record Micros ADV of 4.1 million contracts [2] Financial Performance - Net income for Q2 2025 was $1.0 billion, with diluted earnings per share at $2.81; on an adjusted basis, net income was $1.1 billion and diluted earnings per share were $2.96 [2][12] - Clearing and transaction fees revenue totaled $1.4 billion, with an average rate per contract of $0.690; market data revenue was $198 million [3][12] - Total revenues for the first six months of 2025 reached $3.334 billion, compared to $3.020 billion for the same period in 2024 [12] Balance Sheet and Shareholder Returns - As of June 30, 2025, CME Group had $2.2 billion in cash and $3.4 billion in debt; the company paid approximately $3.0 billion in dividends during the first half of the year [4] - Since implementing a variable dividend policy in early 2012, CME Group has returned $29.1 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends [4] Market Position and Strategy - CME Group is recognized as the world's leading derivatives marketplace, offering a wide range of global benchmark products across major asset classes [5] - The company continues to enhance its trading platforms and services, including futures and options on futures trading through CME Globex and fixed income trading via BrokerTec [5]

Group 1 - CME Group is initiated with a Strong Buy rating and a price target of $332.96, highlighting its position as a global leader in futures and options trading [1] - The company operates in an institutionalized arena where trillions in futures and options are traded, routed, and cleared daily, emphasizing its critical role in the financial markets [1] - Moretus Research focuses on identifying companies with durable business models and mispriced cash flow potential, applying a structured framework for investment analysis [1] Group 2 - Moretus Research combines rigorous fundamental analysis with a judgment-driven process, aiming to provide clarity and actionable insights for serious investors [1] - The research emphasizes comparability, simplicity, and relevance in valuation, tailored to each company's business model and capital structure [1] - The coverage tends to favor underappreciated companies undergoing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can lead to asymmetric returns [1]