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国轩高科(002074):公司简评报告:全球化布局成效显著,业绩表现亮眼
Donghai Securities· 2025-04-29 12:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant achievements in the company's global expansion strategy, resulting in impressive performance metrics. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.21 billion yuan, up 28.6% year-on-year. The gross margin was 18.0%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, while the net margin was 3.3%, up 0.2 percentage points. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 9.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, up 45.6% year-on-year [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company reported a global power battery installation volume of approximately 840.6 GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%. The lithium iron phosphate battery installation volume reached 422.7 GWh, up 45.6%, capturing over 50.3% market share. The company's global power lithium battery installation volume increased by 73.8% year-on-year, achieving a market share of 3.2%, ranking eighth globally, with a market share of 6.2% in the lithium iron phosphate segment, ranking third globally [4][5]. Product Development - The company has rapidly iterated its product matrix, responding to new industry technology demands. In the passenger vehicle sector, it launched the G-series PHEV battery system and the first-generation all-solid-state "Jinshi" battery, significantly enhancing energy density and fast-charging performance. In the commercial vehicle sector, it introduced the G-series pure electric heavy truck standard box and the world's first modular battery swap system, enabling "five-minute rapid battery swapping" [4][5]. Energy Storage Sector - The global demand for energy storage is rapidly increasing, with the company achieving significant results in its global layout. In 2024, global energy storage lithium battery shipments reached 369.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 64.9%. The company's energy storage battery shipments increased by 200% year-on-year, achieving a market share of 6%, ranking seventh globally [4][5]. Resource and Production Strategy - The company has established a complete lithium battery industry chain, enhancing its ability to withstand cost fluctuations. The self-sufficiency rate of key raw materials exceeds 40%. The overseas production bases in Thailand and Vietnam have commenced operations, with accelerated construction of other overseas bases to strengthen trade barrier resilience. The company plans to expand its power battery production capacity from an annual output of 20 GWh to 28 GWh [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is positioned as a leading domestic lithium battery enterprise, expected to benefit significantly from the global electrification trend. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 45.35 billion yuan, 59.65 billion yuan, and 73.47 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.70 billion yuan, 2.39 billion yuan, and 3.38 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS estimates are 0.90 yuan, 1.30 yuan, and 1.90 yuan, with PE ratios of 21.5x, 15.3x, and 10.8x, respectively [4][5][6].