Core Viewpoint - Chewy, Inc. is expected to report growth in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with sales estimated at $3.1 billion, reflecting a 7.8% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share projected at 33 cents, indicating a 37.5% growth from the previous year [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chewy's quarterly sales is $3.1 billion, representing a 7.8% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share has remained stable at 33 cents, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 37.5% [1]. - Chewy has delivered an average earnings surprise of 8.1% over the last four quarters, with a recent surprise of 2.9% [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Chewy's performance is likely bolstered by its digital capabilities, product assortments, and expansion efforts, including technology upgrades to its online platforms [3]. - Increased product demand, strong consumer engagement, and growth in active customers have positively impacted results, alongside the expansion of Autoship subscriptions and healthcare services [4]. - The estimated net sales per active customer is $589, which is a 4.2% increase from the previous year [5][9]. Group 3: Challenges - The company faces challenges from a tough macroeconomic environment, including inflationary pressures and tariffs, which may have negatively impacted performance [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 24% increase in diluted earnings per share, adjusted to $6.84, reflecting strong financial results for the second quarter [6] - Revenue growth was 6.4%, driven by increased demand for services, improved payer mix, and stable patient acuity levels [6][13] - Adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 30 basis points compared to the prior year quarter, with adjusted EBITDA growing 8.4% year-over-year [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Equivalent admissions increased by 1.7% for the quarter and 2.3% year-to-date, with managed care equivalent admissions growing by 4% [12] - Medicare admissions grew by 3%, slightly below expectations, while Medicaid saw a slight decline and self-pay increased slightly [12][13] - The company experienced a $100 million increase in net benefit from Medicaid supplemental payment programs compared to the prior year quarter [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 60% of the company's Medicaid volumes and revenue are in non-expansion states, which mitigates the expected impact of recent federal policy changes [9] - The company anticipates some individuals will lose insurance coverage due to changes in federal policies, but believes its financial resiliency program will offset these effects [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to combine high-quality local health networks with national capabilities to reinforce its competitive position and respond to market dynamics [8] - A balanced capital allocation strategy is in place, with $1.2 billion in capital expenditures, $2.5 billion in share repurchases, and $171 million in dividends planned for 2025 [15][19] - The company is optimistic about future growth, with a diversified portfolio of markets and ongoing investments in outpatient facilities and inpatient capacity [20][57] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage the impacts of federal policy changes and maintain a strong balance sheet [11] - The company has seen a recovery in facilities affected by Hurricane Saline and Milton, with better-than-expected performance in some markets [21] - Management noted that 14 out of 15 divisions grew their admissions, indicating strong underlying business performance despite some volume metrics being lower than expected [33][34] Other Important Information - The company is actively developing resiliency programs to mitigate potential adverse impacts from federal policy changes and is focused on operational improvements [40] - The company has approximately $5.5 billion in capital projects underway, which are expected to enhance its network and service capacity [57][108] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance update and impact of Tennessee DPP program - Management confirmed that the updated guidance reflects the approval of the Tennessee DPP program and better visibility on other programs [27][28] Question: Resiliency programs and potential headwinds - Management indicated that their financial resiliency program should offset adverse impacts from federal policy changes, with further details to be provided in the fourth quarter earnings call [39][40] Question: Commercial volume trends and consumer confidence - Management noted that managed care equivalent admissions are up 4% year-to-date, with health care exchanges performing better than expected [45][46] Question: Market share dynamics and local market performance - Management reported sustained market share gains, with a focus on improving network integrity and patient retention [56][57] Question: Changes in Medicare Advantage behavior and revenue cycle investments - Management stated that there have been no significant impacts from denial activities, reflecting improvements in revenue cycle management [67][68] Question: Update on commercial contracting and capital expenditures - Management confirmed that they are largely contracted for 2025 and about 80% contracted for 2026, with ongoing capital investments to enhance service capacity [106][108]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Health International (6618.HK) [1][21]. Core Insights - JD Health's share price has increased by 60% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index and peers [1]. - The company is focusing on on-demand initiatives, market share growth, and disciplined capital allocation as key areas of interest [1][20]. - JD Health is expected to achieve 18% year-on-year topline growth for 2Q25, with a stable profit margin despite increased investments [20][24]. Summary by Sections On-Demand Initiatives - JD Health is rapidly expanding its preposition warehouses in tier-1 cities, targeting around 200 warehouses by the end of FY25 [2]. - The competition in the on-demand space remains disciplined, with JD Health focusing on quality and variety rather than aggressive sales volume increases [2][19]. - Higher investments and promotions are anticipated in the second half of FY25 to drive online-to-offline (O2O) growth [2][28]. Market Share and Growth - JD Health is gaining market share in the online drug category, with strong user engagement expected to drive traffic and transactions [3][19]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with ongoing debates about B2C versus O2O competition in the pharmaceutical sector [3][19]. - The company is projected to outperform peers, with a diverging sales growth trend compared to competitors [21][27]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for JD Health are set at RMB 58,159.9 million for FY24, increasing to RMB 88,638.8 million by FY27 [6][17]. - EBITDA is expected to grow significantly, with projections of RMB 1,684.2 million for FY24 and RMB 3,601.3 million for FY27 [6][17]. - The report anticipates a net profit of RMB 4,161.8 million for FY24, increasing to RMB 6,608.1 million by FY27 [17][39]. Capital Allocation - JD Health has over RMB 50 billion in net cash, representing approximately 50% of its market capitalization, which will be a focus in upcoming results [20][21]. - The company is expected to maintain a disciplined spending pattern while exploring opportunities for investments and shareholder returns [21][39].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, same store admissions increased by 4%, same store adjusted admissions rose by 2.6%, and net operating revenues on a same store basis grew by 3.1% [5][16] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $376 million, compared to $378 million in the prior year, with a margin of 11.9% versus 12% in the previous year [16] - Cash flows from operations were $120 million for Q1 2025, up from $96 million in Q1 2024, while free cash flow remained slightly negative but improved over the prior year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The growth in Q1 was driven by a heavier flu season compared to the previous year, alongside targeted capital investments and operational initiatives [6][10] - Same store surgeries decreased by 3%, while emergency department visits increased by 2.4% [16] - Medical specialist fees increased by approximately 9% year over year, representing 5.1% of net revenues compared to 4.8% in the prior year [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong demand for healthcare services across its core portfolio markets, with notable growth in EMS volumes and cardiac service lines [27] - The payer mix showed a decline in commercial business, particularly in elective procedures, attributed to higher deductible plans and economic uncertainties [75] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on delivering high-quality care, operational expertise, and financial discipline as foundational areas for growth in 2025 [8][9] - Strategic initiatives include the acquisition of urgent care centers and investments in ambulatory services, as well as leveraging AI and emerging technologies [10] - The company plans to use divestiture proceeds to reduce debt and improve leverage, with a target of over $1 billion in divestiture proceeds [6][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged uncertainties in the healthcare environment, particularly regarding potential changes from Washington, but remains committed to advocating for policies that strengthen healthcare delivery systems [11] - The company maintains its financial guidance for 2025, despite headwinds from claims denials and medical specialist fees [20][60] Other Important Information - The company completed divestitures of ShorePoint Health System and Lake Norman Regional Medical Center, with total gross proceeds of $544 million recorded in Q1 [12][13] - The company announced a debt refinancing and buyback transaction to further reduce leverage and improve its maturity profile [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Volume performance and cost structure management - Management noted strong signs of success across the portfolio, with robust EMS volumes and growth in cardiac services, despite some softness in lower acuity surgeries due to the flu [25][27] Question: Balance sheet and cash flow guidance - Management indicated that proceeds from recent divestitures would be used for debt reduction and that cash flow guidance remains on track despite additional divestitures [32][34] Question: Updates on DPP programs - Management reported no significant updates on Tennessee and New Mexico DPP programs but noted positive developments in other states [39][41] Question: Public exchanges volume growth - Management stated that net revenue from public exchanges is less than 6% of total net revenue, with growth observed but still a small portion of overall revenue [42] Question: Payer behavior and denials - Management indicated that denials and downgrades are being observed across all regions and service lines, with no specific trends tied to particular payers [55] Question: Medical specialist fees pressure - Management confirmed that anesthesiology accounts for over 50% of the increase in medical specialist fees, with ongoing efforts to insource services to mitigate costs [64][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2024, same store net operating revenues increased by 5.5% and adjusted EBITDA improved by 6% [9][17] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $428 million, compared to $386 million in the prior year period, with a margin of 13.1%, up from 12.1% [16][17] - Cash flows from operations were $216 million for the fourth quarter, up from $90 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, and $480 million for the full year of 2024, consistent with guidance [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same store admissions increased by 3.2%, adjusted admissions by 2.7%, and surgeries by 1.3% for the full year 2024 [7] - Same store emergency department visits were up 1% and surgeries were up 0.9% in the fourth quarter [16] - Same store ambulatory surgery center cases increased by 14% last year [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company completed divestitures in Cleveland, Tennessee, and Statesboro, North Carolina, with plans for additional divestitures expected to generate over $1 billion in total proceeds [10][22] - The net debt to trailing adjusted EBITDA improved to 7.4 times, down from 7.9 times at the end of 2023 [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding outpatient access, including primary care, specialty practices, and urgent care centers, with significant capital investments [7][15] - The implementation of a new ERP system is expected to drive efficiencies and reduce costs, with estimated savings of $40 million to $60 million in 2025 [23] - The company anticipates further expansion of internally managed hospital-based provider services in 2025 [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted stabilization in payer downgrades and denials, which had been a troubling trend for healthcare providers [11][17] - The company expects organic growth of $75 million to $100 million in 2025, with net revenue guidance of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion [23] - Management expressed confidence in the approval of directed payment programs in New Mexico and Tennessee, which could add an incremental $100 million to $125 million to annual EBITDA [24][50] Other Important Information - The company experienced a $10 million impact from a hurricane in Q4, with one hospital still shut down as a result [74] - The company is in discussions for additional strategic divestitures expected to be announced soon [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help bridge 2024 to 2025 guidance? - Management provided a high-level bridge starting with 2024 EBITDA of $1.54 billion, accounting for reductions from divestitures and adding organic growth to reach the midpoint of 2025 guidance [27][28] Question: What are the strategic moves expected moving forward? - Management highlighted ongoing investments in core portfolio growth, including outpatient and procedural capacity expansions, and noted that there are still investable opportunities in the pipeline [30][33] Question: Can you quantify the continued hurricane impact in Q4? - The hurricane impact was as expected at $10 million, with one hospital shut down for the entire quarter [74]