本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN T5ZVZBGQ7LAO 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 本期主题： 礼来业绩领跑、诺和诺德落后：政策不确定性持续困扰制药行业 GLP-1药物第三季度表现分化：礼来亮眼 诺和诺德失色 美国大型药企第三季度收入超预期幅度再次高于欧洲同业，汇率仍是拖累后者收入的主要因 素。礼来凭借肥胖症药物组合的强劲表现，以收入超预期1 0%领跑同业。与之形成鲜明对比 的是，诺和诺德因复合GLP- 1药物竞争加剧持续面临阻力，业绩较预期低约2%，且这一压力 短期内难以缓解。 罗氏因Oc r e v u s、Hemli b r a和Va b y smo三款药物销售疲软，收入未达预期，加剧了市场对其 长期增长前景的担忧，尤其是在其后期产品管线推进缓慢的背景下。此外，葛兰素史克、百 时美施贵宝和阿斯利康在核心增长业务的支持下，实现了低单位数的超预期表现。艾伯维再 次上调对Sk y ri z i和Ri n v o q的预期，这两款药物在第三季度推动了业绩增长，并持续抵消 Humir a销售下滑的影响。 第三季度收入 vs. 市场普遍预期 | | | 诺和诺德EPS未达预期 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. Ltd** (China) [7] - **MediaTek Inc.** (Taiwan) [5][6] - **EDP/EDPR** (Portugal) [4] - **Minth** (China) [8] - **Antofagasta** (United Kingdom) [12] - **Scentre Group** (Australia) [13][14] Core Insights and Arguments Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. Ltd - Management reaffirmed full-year guidance despite underwhelming 3Q25 results, citing NEV drag and margin pressure [7] - Expecting approximately 20% year-over-year sales growth in both 4Q25 and 2026, driven by product expansion and overseas market penetration [7] - Introduction of Digital Energy Solutions as a strategic growth engine, enhancing focus on energy storage and digitalization [7] MediaTek Inc. - Anticipated 3Q25 revenues to be in line with expectations, with 4Q25 guidance expected to be flat to slightly down due to seasonal corrections [6] - The stock has underperformed recently, down 9% compared to TWSE's 18% increase, attributed to weaker ASIC expectations [6] - Key positive catalysts include resetting ASIC revenue expectations and potential breakthroughs with new projects [6] EDP/EDPR - Downgraded EDP from Overweight to Neutral due to limited upside after a 49.7% YTD total return [4] - Concerns over overestimated earnings growth expectations for EDPR and conservative guidance from management [4] - Estimated 2028E net income for EDP at €1.43 billion, with potential conservative guidance leading to profit-taking [4] Minth - Share price surged 143% YTD, with a recent correction of 14% due to share sales and geopolitical tensions [8] - Earnings forecast raised by 14-23% for 2026/27, reflecting stronger expectations in battery housing and auto components [8] - Anticipated valuation re-rating driven by new TAM from AI liquid cooling and humanoid robotics [8] Antofagasta - Q3'25 copper production increased by 2%, but sales decreased by 11% due to weather conditions [12] - 2025 copper production guidance lowered to the lower end of the range (660-700kt) [12] - Revised 2025E/26E EBITDA forecasts down by 3% and 7%, respectively, while maintaining an Overweight rating [12] Scentre Group - Placed on Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of FY26 earnings growth guidance, expected to exceed market expectations [13] - Anticipated strong like-for-like NOI growth of 4.0%, driving approximately 7% FFO growth [13] - Favorable conditions for top-tier malls, with minimal vacancy and strong population growth [14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The global corporate capex survey indicates a bullish outlook for data centers and associated infrastructure, with a projected 10% year-over-year increase in global capex for 2025 [3] - The broader industrial sector is expected to see a 12% year-over-year increase, while sectors like Autos and Chemicals are experiencing declines [3] - Polish banks are expected to show sequential improvement in ROTE, with a projected average of 23.5% for 3Q25 [11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments from the conference call records, highlighting the performance and outlook of various companies and industries.

Core Insights - The third-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for the Medical sector is commencing, with major firms expected to release earnings results in the coming weeks, particularly in pharma/biotech and medical devices [1] - Johnson & Johnson has set a positive tone for the earnings season by exceeding estimates and raising its sales expectations for 2025 [1] - Roche has reported solid growth in the first nine months of 2025, driven by high demand for key drugs, leading to an upward revision of its earnings per share growth expectations for 2025 [2] Earnings Trends - As of October 22, 13.3% of Medical sector companies, representing 26.8% of the sector's market capitalization, have reported earnings, with 87.5% exceeding earnings estimates and the same percentage surpassing revenue expectations [3] - Year-over-year earnings increased by 7.4%, while revenues rose by 9.8%. However, third-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to decrease by 4.3%, with sales expected to rise by 8.1% compared to the previous year [3] Company Performance Expectations - Eli Lilly is expected to report strong results driven by demand for GLP-1 drugs and other oncology and immunology products, with a consensus estimate of $16.01 billion in sales and $6.02 per share in earnings [7][8] - Merck is anticipated to see growth from its cancer drug Keytruda, with estimates of $17.06 billion in sales and $2.36 per share in earnings [12] - AbbVie is projected to benefit from sales of Rinvoq, Skyrizi, and newer drugs, with estimates of $15.59 billion in sales and $1.80 per share in earnings [13][14] - Bristol Myers is expected to report revenues influenced by growth portfolio sales, with estimates of $11.83 billion in sales and $1.51 per share in earnings [15][16] - Gilead Sciences is likely to see revenue support from its HIV therapies, with estimates of $7.46 billion in sales and $2.15 per share in earnings, although impacted by changes in Medicare Part D [19][20]

Core Insights - Roche Holding AG reported third-quarter sales of CHF 14.9 billion for 2025, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase at constant exchange rates, driven by strong demand for its drugs [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, total sales reached CHF 45.9 billion, up 7% at constant exchange rates, with the Pharmaceuticals Division growing 9% to CHF 35.5 billion [2][8] - The Diagnostics Division's sales totaled CHF 10.3 billion, up 1%, as demand for pathology solutions and molecular diagnostics offset the impact of healthcare pricing reforms in China [3] Pharmaceuticals Division Performance - Key drugs such as Phesgo, Xolair, Hemlibra, Vabysmo, and Ocrevus generated total sales of CHF 15.8 billion, an increase of CHF 2.4 billion at constant exchange rates compared to the first nine months of 2024 [4] - Ocrevus sales reached CHF 5.2 billion, up 7%, while Hemlibra surged 12% to CHF 3.5 billion, and Vabysmo grew 13% to CHF 3 billion [5] - Xolair sales increased by 34% to CHF 2.2 billion, and Phesgo's sales skyrocketed 54% to CHF 1.8 billion [9] Diagnostics Division Performance - The Diagnostics Division's sales were CHF 10.3 billion, with growth driven by pathology solutions and molecular diagnostics [3] Financial Outlook - Roche expects total sales to grow in the mid-single-digit range at constant exchange rates for 2025, with core earnings per share projected to grow in the high single-digit to low double-digit range [12] Pipeline Developments - The FDA approved label expansions for Gazyva/Gazyvaro and Tecentriq, enhancing Roche's treatment options [13] - Positive results from the phase III evERA study on giredestrant for breast cancer were announced, showing significant reductions in disease progression risk [14] - Roche plans to acquire 89bio, Inc. for $3.5 billion to enhance its portfolio in cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic diseases [15] Competitive Landscape - Roche's drugs, particularly Vabysmo and Hemlibra, have shown strong performance, competing effectively against other market players [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Roche's shares declined due to disappointing sales of new treatments for eye disease and haemophilia, despite meeting overall revenue expectations for the first nine months of the year [1][4]. Financial Performance - Roche's group revenue increased by 2% on a constant currency basis to 45.9 billion Swiss francs ($57.9 billion) in the first nine months, slightly below analysts' forecasts of 46.2-46.4 billion francs [4]. - The pharmaceutical division's sales for the third quarter were 11.57 billion Swiss francs ($14.59 billion), falling short of analysts' expectations of 11.84 billion francs [5]. Product Performance - Sales of Vabysmo, aimed at treating a common form of blindness, reached 996 million Swiss francs ($1.26 billion) in the third quarter, missing analyst expectations for the second consecutive quarter [5]. - Older drugs like Rituxan and Actemra helped offset shortfalls from newer treatments such as Hemlibra and Vabysmo, indicating a reliance on established products [2]. Market Outlook - Roche raised its adjusted earnings growth forecast to high-single to low-double-digit percentages, supported by cost controls and efforts to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, while maintaining a mid-single-digit sales growth forecast [3]. - CEO Thomas Schinecker emphasized the potential for growth in the obesity drug market, stating that Roche is only "scratching the surface" of this opportunity [4].

Core Viewpoint - Roche has raised its full-year profit guidance due to cost-cutting measures that offset the impact of a weaker dollar on overseas sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - Roche now expects a high-single to low-double-digit percentage increase in adjusted earnings, up from a previous forecast of a high-single-digit increase [1]. - The company confirmed its annual guidance for a mid-single-digit rise in sales [1]. - Group revenues rose 2% in non-adjusted terms to 45.9 billion Swiss francs ($57.9 billion) in the first nine months of the year, which was below analysts' expectations of 46.2-46.4 billion francs [4]. Strategic Initiatives - CEO Thomas Schinecker highlighted that Roche's growth momentum, efforts to mitigate short-term impacts of U.S. tariffs, and cost control measures contributed to the increased guidance [2]. - Roche is investing heavily in obesity drugs to compete with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, indicating that the industry is only beginning to explore the obesity market [3]. Product Performance - Nine-month revenues for the eye drug Vabysmo, which addresses a common form of blindness in the elderly, reached 3.06 billion francs, but this was below expectations [4][5]. - Sales of key growth drivers, including Vabysmo and the haemophilia treatment Hemlibra, missed analysts' forecasts [4].

Core Insights - Roche reported a strong sales growth of 7% at constant exchange rates (CER) for the first nine months of 2025, reaching CHF 45.9 billion, driven by high demand for innovative medicines and diagnostics [4][7][8] - The Pharmaceuticals Division saw a 9% increase in sales (4% in CHF), with key growth drivers including Phesgo, Xolair, Hemlibra, Vabysmo, and Ocrevus [4][8][10] - Roche raised its earnings outlook for 2025, expecting mid single-digit sales growth and core earnings per share to develop in the high single to low double-digit range [6][8] Sales Performance - Group sales for January to September 2025 were CHF 45,862 million, up from CHF 44,984 million in 2024, reflecting a 7% increase at CER and a 2% increase in CHF [4][7] - The Pharmaceuticals Division's sales reached CHF 35,555 million, a 9% increase at CER and a 4% increase in CHF compared to the previous year [4][8] - The Diagnostics Division's sales increased by 1% to CHF 10,307 million, although it experienced a 4% decline in CHF due to healthcare pricing reforms in China [4][14][26] Regional Sales Breakdown - In the United States, sales rose by 8% to CHF 18,798 million, driven by strong performances from Xolair, Phesgo, Ocrevus, and Hemlibra [5][10] - European sales grew by 5% to CHF 6,818 million, supported by demand for Ocrevus and Vabysmo [11] - The International region saw a 13% increase in sales, with China contributing a 9% rise due to the inclusion of Phesgo in the government drug reimbursement list [13] Product Developments and Approvals - Roche's pipeline includes ten potentially transformative medicines in the final phase of development, with expectations for up to 19 new medicines by the end of the decade [2][4] - Recent approvals include Tecentriq for lung cancer and Gazyva/Gazyvaro for severe kidney disease, along with positive recommendations for Lunsumio and advancements in several key drug candidates [4][16][18] - Roche's next-generation sequencing technology is set to launch next year, achieving a record for decoding a whole human genome in under four hours [3] Diagnostics Innovations - Roche received CE marks for several diagnostic tools, including an AI-based risk stratification tool for kidney function decline and a sixth-generation Troponin T test for heart attack diagnosis [24][25] - The Elecsys pTau181 test, a minimally invasive blood test for ruling out Alzheimer's disease, has also received CE mark approval [25]

Core Insights - Roche's immunotherapy drug Tecentriq has received FDA approval for label expansion, allowing its use in combination with Jazz Pharmaceuticals' Zepzelca for maintenance treatment of extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) [1][2][9] Group 1: FDA Approval and Clinical Impact - The FDA approved Tecentriq and Tecentriq Hybreza in combination with Zepzelca for adult patients with ES-SCLC whose disease has not progressed after first-line induction therapy [2][9] - This approval represents the first and only combination therapy for first-line maintenance treatment of ES-SCLC [3] - The IMforte study demonstrated that the combination therapy reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 46% and the risk of death by 27% compared to Tecentriq alone, with median overall survival of 13.2 months versus 10.6 months [6][9] Group 2: Market Performance and Sales - Roche's shares have increased by 32.5% year to date, outperforming the industry growth of 10.7% [5] - Tecentriq sales reached CHF 1.7 billion in the first half of 2025, contributing to the overall growth in Roche's Pharmaceuticals Division, which saw a 10% increase in sales to CHF 24 billion [10][11] Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions and Pipeline Developments - Roche announced the acquisition of clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company 89bio, Inc. for $3.5 billion, aimed at enhancing its portfolio in cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic diseases [12] - The acquisition will incorporate 89bio's pegozafermin, currently in late-stage development for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis [13] Group 4: Challenges and Setbacks - Despite strong performance in key areas, Roche faces pipeline setbacks, including the failure of the phase III ARNASA study for astegolimab in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [14] - The performance of Roche's Diagnostics division has also been disappointing [15]

Summary of Pharma Day 2025 Conference Company Overview - The conference is hosted by Roche, focusing on their pharmaceutical strategy and pipeline developments across five therapeutic areas [1][2]. Key Industry Insights - **Therapeutic Areas**: Roche is concentrating on five therapeutic areas that represent 60% of the global disease burden and 80% of expected pharmaceutical growth [25]. - **Obesity Strategy**: Significant progress has been made in building a leading obesity portfolio, highlighted by two major deals: Zealand Pharma and 89bio [2][7]. Financial Performance - Roche has achieved a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for group sales and 8% for core EPS, despite challenges such as a $21 billion patent cliff in 2018 [8][9]. - The company reported a 10% growth in its in-market portfolio and a 13% growth in core operating profit (COP) at the half-year mark [16]. Pipeline Developments - Roche has launched 10 transformative medicines by 2025, with more than 10 additional new molecular entities (NMEs) expected by the end of 2029 [15]. - The company has 17 blockbusters currently on the market, with expectations for growth until 2028 [9][10]. Research and Development (R&D) Excellence - R&D initiatives have led to 55% of new molecular entities being post-BAR (Business Assessment Review), indicating a rigorous evaluation process [17][23]. - The BAR framework is applied consistently across the R&D organization to ensure scientific rigor and commercial success [22]. Therapeutic Area Highlights - **Oncology**: Roche's HER2 breast cancer franchise is expected to peak in 2026, with positive data from Giredestrant expanding into hormone receptor-positive breast cancer [18][28]. - **Neurology**: Ocrevus remains the standard of care in multiple sclerosis (MS), with ongoing developments in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease [31][32]. - **Immunology**: Xolair is performing well in food allergies, with no biosimilars expected until 2026 [34][35]. - **Ophthalmology**: Vabysmo is establishing a leadership position in retinal diseases, with ongoing data analysis for upcoming presentations [36]. - **Cardiovascular, Renal, and Metabolism (CVRM)**: Roche aims to become a top three player in obesity, leveraging its extensive portfolio and capabilities [37][58]. Market Dynamics - The obesity market is characterized by significant fragmentation, with 51% of the global population projected to be overweight or obese by 2025 [52]. - Despite the size of the market, only 10-15% of eligible patients are currently receiving treatment, indicating substantial unmet needs [52][56]. Strategic Initiatives - Roche is committed to investing $50 billion in the U.S. by the end of the decade, focusing on manufacturing and R&D capabilities [39]. - The company emphasizes the importance of leveraging data analytics and AI to enhance operational efficiency and patient delivery [41][42]. Conclusion - Roche's Pharma Day 2025 highlighted the company's robust pipeline, strategic focus on high-burden diseases, and commitment to innovation and patient access, positioning it well for future growth in the pharmaceutical industry [1][2][25].

Core Insights - Roche announced new data from two studies on its ophthalmology drug Vabysmo, reinforcing its efficacy and safety in treating neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) and diabetic macular edema [1][2] Group 1: Study Results - The AVONELLE-X study demonstrated that vision remained stable over two years, with nearly 80% of patients extending their treatment intervals to every three or four months by the end of the study [3][4] - The SALWEEN study showed Vabysmo resulted in significant vision gains and retinal drying in patients with polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV), with over 60% of patients experiencing complete resolution of lesions [5] Group 2: Financial Performance - Vabysmo's sales grew 18% to CHF 2.1 billion in the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand across all regions, contributing to Roche's overall sales growth [6] - Roche's Pharmaceuticals Division saw a 10% increase in sales to CHF 24 billion in the first half of 2025, supported by strong demand for key drugs including Vabysmo, Hemlibra, and Ocrevus [7] Group 3: Market Position - Roche's shares have increased by 25% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the industry average growth of 1.7% [8] - Vabysmo is positioned as a strong competitor to Regeneron's Eylea, which has faced declining sales, prompting Regeneron to develop a higher dose version [6]