This presentation contains "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including but not limited to, information or predictions concerning our future financial performance, including our financial outlook for Q4 2025 and the full fiscal year 2025 under the heading "Outlook" and management's estimates under the heading "Marketplace update," projected growth and other strategies, b ...

Company Overview - The Carlyle Group Inc. will acquire the housing loan unit of Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd, Nido Home Finance Ltd, in a ₹2,100 crore deal [1] - Nido provides home loans to customers across affordable housing and mass-market segments, managing assets worth ₹4,804 crore [7] Deal Structure - Carlyle Asia Partners will acquire a 45% stake in Nido through a secondary purchase and a primary equity capital infusion of ₹1,500 crore [2] - Edelweiss will sell 31.2 million shares for ₹602 crore and issue 25.7 million fresh shares at ₹193 per share to CA Sardo Investments [3] - The share issue price represents a 73% premium over the stock's closing price on the previous trading day [4] Stake Distribution - Upon completion, Carlyle's funds will hold approximately 73% of Nido on a fully diluted basis [3] - CA Sardo and Salisbury will receive fresh warrants priced at ₹193 each [4] Financial Impact - In fiscal 2024-25, Nido contributed 5.5% to Edelweiss's top line, amounting to ₹521 crore, and 14% to the company's net worth [5] Strategic Rationale - The transaction is viewed as a "win-win-win" for all stakeholders, advancing value creation for Edelweiss, reinforcing growth for Nido, and providing Carlyle with entry into India's housing financing sector [6] Market Context - The deal occurs amid a trend where housing finance companies (HFCs) are increasingly relying on non-housing loans to protect margins and growth [9] - Icra Ltd expects healthy growth of 15-17% in HFCs' assets under management during FY26-27 [10] - Housing loans as a share of GDP rose to 11% in FY25 from 8% in FY15, driven by demand-side measures [10]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings (UPST) shares are trading at a premium with a Value Score of D, and a forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.83X, higher than the industry average of 3.36X [1] - Despite the premium valuation, UPST shares have underperformed, declining 31.1% over the past three months compared to the industry's 14% fall [2] - Investors' confidence is eroding due to macroeconomic conditions and concerns about Upstart's conservative lending models [3] Financial Performance - Upstart reported a 71% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching $277 million, with loan originations climbing 80% to $2.9 billion [5][9] - Loan applications increased by approximately 30% quarter over quarter, totaling over 2 million, the highest in over three years [8] - The conversion rate for loans decreased to 20.6% from 23.9% in the previous quarter, although it remains above 16.3% from a year ago [8] Operational Efficiency - 91% of loans in Q3 were fully automated, enhancing operational efficiency and scalability [9] - Upstart launched a machine learning model to optimize take rates, which is expected to improve monetization over time [10] Expansion into New Markets - Upstart is diversifying beyond personal loans, with auto, home, and small-dollar loans gaining traction, accounting for nearly 12% of total originations and 22% of new borrowers in Q3 [11] - Auto retail loan originations grew 9% sequentially, and home-equity lending approvals surged to about 20% by October 2025 [12] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share (EPS) has increased by 2 cents to $1.68, while the estimate for 2026 EPS has been revised down by 27 cents to $2.65 [17] - Despite strong fundamentals and growth prospects, the stock remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, particularly interest rate shifts [16][18] - Upstart is currently rated as a Hold, suggesting it is a stock worth monitoring rather than an immediate buy or sell [20]

Core Insights - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have significantly increased their mortgage-backed securities and home loans, aiming to lower lending rates and enhance profitability ahead of a potential secondary offering [1][5]. Company Overview - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are large government-sponsored enterprises designed to support the home loan market, facilitating easier access to mortgages [2][3]. - They underwrite over 50% of all mortgages in the U.S., providing financial guarantees on mortgage bonds, which is essential for financing home loans [3]. Financial Activities - In addition to their primary business of providing financial guarantees, they also purchase mortgage bonds and home loans, generating revenue through these investments [4]. - Since June, their investment portfolio has grown by approximately 25%, reaching around $233 billion, within a broader agency mortgage bond market valued at about $9 trillion [5]. Market Expectations - Analysts predict that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may add an additional $100 billion to their portfolios, although the exact trajectory remains uncertain due to limited communication from the companies and their regulator [6]. - The strategy of increasing their investment portfolios is seen as a way to improve earnings, which is crucial for any future public offering [7][8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) compressed by about 8 basis points due to front-loading of interest rate cuts on the asset side of the balance sheet [6] - The capital adequacy ratio remained stable at around 19.9% to 20% with a slight change of 10 basis points [31] - The bank's return on assets (ROA) has been operating between 1.8% to 1.95% over the last eight quarters [56] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth has accelerated across segments, with a focus on disciplined pricing and market share gains in deposits [6][8] - The bank's contingent provisions increased by about INR 1,600 crore, enhancing resilience [11][65] - Fee income grew by approximately 9%, indicating consistent growth across various products [41] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) started the year at about 96 and is expected to decrease below 90 as part of the strategic objectives [20] - Retail deposits accounted for about 83% of total deposits, with a slight increase in the proportion of retail deposits during the quarter [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The bank continues to invest in technology and distribution to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [7][49] - The strategy includes maintaining credit standards while participating in growth opportunities in unsecured loans and mortgages [71] - The bank aims to grow faster than the market in FY 2027, with a focus on sustainable growth and capital consumption [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The domestic economy is showing signs of strength, supported by fiscal and monetary measures, which is expected to boost loan growth [5] - Management expressed optimism about the economic cycle and its sustainability beyond the festive period [28] - The bank is focused on maintaining asset quality and managing expenses tightly to create operating leverage [6][8] Other Important Information - The bank is exploring opportunities for cross-border transactions following recent regulatory relaxations [90] - The bank's home loan segment has seen improvements in turnaround times, now at two days for individual loans and three days for self-employed [50] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recovery in NPL movement - Management indicated that recoveries were boosted by a one-off upgrade contributing approximately 10 basis points to the NPL ratio [11][14] Question: Guidance on margins - The bank expects exit margins to improve, with stable rates anticipated to positively impact margins over the next few quarters [19] Question: Deposit growth and LDR - The bank's strategic objective is to reduce LDR below 90 while growing in line with the market [20][21] Question: Capital adequacy and growth - Management confirmed that the bank has sufficient capital for three to four years of growth, with a focus on maintaining higher capital levels for unforeseen risks [29][31] Question: Personal loans and risk appetite - The bank maintains strict credit standards and is cautiously optimistic about growth in unsecured loans [71] Question: Home loans and market share - The bank aims to grow its home loan segment without compromising on margins, focusing on long-term customer relationships [74] Question: Gold loans and yields - Yields on gold loans remain attractive, and the bank is cautious about maintaining clarity in terms with clients [76] Question: Credit card growth - The bank has seen a tepid addition to net receivables due to selective participation in spending during festive periods [82] Question: SME loan opportunities - There is a positive outlook for SME loans, with actual credit demand increasing in that segment [89]

Core Insights - Banks and shadow banks are launching various offers to boost credit demand during the festive season, which has been relatively muted this year [2] - Lenders are reducing interest rates on loans for homes, vehicles, and personal use, while waiving processing fees and extending repayment tenures [2] Group 1: Offers and Discounts - Many banks have partnered with retailers and e-commerce companies to provide 'instant' EMI options, cashback deals, and discounts on purchases [3] - ICICI Bank is offering savings of up to ₹50,000 on transactions made through credit or debit cards, internet banking, and cardless EMI [4] - HDFC Bank is providing 'festive treats' with savings of up to ₹50,000 on various loans, including personal, business, and vehicle loans [5] - Axis Bank has launched 'Dil Se Open Celebrations' to offer discounts, cashback, and exclusive deals for upcoming festivals [6] Group 2: Specific Offers by Banks - State Bank of India is providing a 10% instant discount on credit card purchases made during Amazon's 'Great Indian Festival' sale [7] - Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are focusing on two-wheeler loans following a GST cut, targeting demand in Tier-II and Tier-III cities [8] - Shriram Finance plans to introduce schemes for gold, housing, and vehicle loans to capitalize on festival demand [9] - L&T Finance has announced three festival schemes for two-wheeler customers, including no-cost EMI and prompt payment rebates [10] Group 3: Market Trends - There is a noticeable increase in demand within the auto ecosystem, particularly for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and passenger vehicles [9] - The overall sentiment indicates a steady underlying demand for credit, with expectations of increased borrowing across key segments due to GST rationalization [8]

Group 1 - Current homeowners are benefiting from the anticipated Fed rate cut, leading to a 58% increase in refinance applications in the last week and a 70% increase compared to the same week last year [1][8] - There is a notable rise in demand for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), with the share of refinancing activity tied to ARMs reaching 12.9%, the highest since 2008 [2] - The surge in refinancing demand is driven by a significant drop in home borrowing costs, with the 10-year US Treasury yield decreasing to around 4.02% from a peak of 4.8% in early 2025, influencing mortgage rates [3] Group 2 - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell by 15 basis points to approximately 6.35%, marking the largest weekly drop in a year, while the 5/1-year adjustable mortgage rate decreased to 5.7% [4] - Overall mortgage activity is increasing, with total applications up 9.2% in the week ending September 5, indicating strong borrower demand since 2022 [8] - The rising activity suggests a positive outlook for the US housing market, which has been stagnant due to high borrowing costs, with expectations of mortgage rates dropping to around 6.25% by year-end as the Fed resumes its easing cycle [9]

Core Viewpoint - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd (BEN) operates primarily in the retail banking sector with a focus on community branches, and its financial performance is assessed through key metrics such as net interest margin (NIM), return on equity (ROE), and common equity tier one (CET1) ratio, which are critical for evaluating its profitability and stability [2][5][9]. Financial Performance Metrics - The net interest margin (NIM) for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd is 1.9%, which is above the ASX major bank average of 1.78%, indicating a better-than-average return from lending activities [6][7]. - The return on equity (ROE) for the bank is 7.9%, which is below the sector average of 9.35%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability relative to shareholder equity [8]. - The common equity tier one (CET1) ratio stands at 11.3%, which is also below the sector average, highlighting potential concerns regarding the bank's capital buffer [9]. Dividend Valuation - The total dividend for the last full year was $0.63, with projections for future growth rates between 2% and 4%. Using a dividend discount model (DDM), the estimated average valuation of BEN shares is $13.32, with an adjusted valuation based on expected future dividends rising to $13.75 [11][12]. - When considering gross dividend payments, which include franking credits, the fair value estimate for BEN shares increases to $19.64, indicating that the current share price of $12.84 may appear undervalued [12][13]. Workplace Culture - The overall workplace culture rating for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank is 2.9/5, which is below the sector average of 3.1, suggesting potential challenges in employee satisfaction and retention [4]. Summary - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd shows strong lending performance through its NIM but faces challenges in ROE and CET1 ratios compared to sector averages. The bank's dividend valuation indicates potential undervaluation when considering franking credits, while workplace culture may impact long-term employee retention and performance [6][8][12].

Core Viewpoint - Upstart reported strong second-quarter earnings, exceeding analyst expectations and posting a surprise profit, yet the stock experienced a 20% drop post-earnings [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Loan origination volume increased by 154% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, with revenue more than doubling [4]. - Upstart achieved its first quarter of GAAP profitability in years, despite initially forecasting a modest loss [4]. Stock Performance and Market Reaction - The stock's decline may be attributed to concerns over certain metrics, despite the overall strength of Upstart's business [5]. - Upstart's conversion rate improved from 19.1% to 23.9%, indicating a potential relaxation of lending standards to drive growth [5]. Growth Potential - Upstart's core business in personal loans has significant growth potential, currently holding a single-digit market share of the overall personal loan volume [5]. - The auto loan market is approximately five times larger than the personal lending market, with Upstart's auto volume growing sixfold over the past year [6]. - Home loan originations increased by 67% sequentially, particularly in home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), tapping into a $35 trillion home equity market [7]. Market Position and Valuation - Despite impressive growth, auto and home loan originations account for less than 7% of Upstart's business [8]. - Upstart's stock trades at a premium, over 9 times trailing-12-month sales, and does not have a consistent record of profitability [9]. - The company raised guidance and is expanding rapidly in new verticals, but remains a volatile investment option [10].

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market is experiencing a growth phase, driven by strong performance from big tech companies and financial stocks indicating economic growth [1][2] Group 2: Dutch Bros - Dutch Bros is a rapidly growing coffee chain with a unique culture focused on fun, fast, and friendly service, and beverage innovation [4] - In Q2 2025, Dutch Bros reported a 28% year-over-year revenue increase and a 6.1% rise in same-shop sales, with adjusted EPS growing from $0.19 to $0.26 [5] - The company plans to expand from its current 1,000 stores to 7,000 by 2029, with 160 new stores opening this year, indicating a long growth runway [6] - If Dutch Bros maintains a 25% CAGR over the next five years, the stock could nearly triple, making it a potential millionaire-maker investment [7] Group 3: Upstart Holdings - Upstart is a volatile stock that has been significantly affected by interest rates, utilizing AI and machine learning to assess borrower creditworthiness [8] - In Q2, Upstart's revenue surged 102% year-over-year, driven by a 159% increase in transaction growth, and it achieved net profitability of $5.6 million [9] - The company is diversifying its loan offerings, with home loan originations increasing ninefold and auto loans growing sixfold in Q2 [10] - Upstart's stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 25, providing room for expansion, and could yield market-beating gains if interest rates decline [11] Group 4: Lemonade - Lemonade is an AI-driven insurance company that uses digital technology to efficiently price and approve insurance claims, targeting younger customers [12] - In Q2, Lemonade's in-force premium increased by 29% year-over-year, and its customer count rose by 24% [13] - Although not yet profitable, Lemonade's net loss narrowed, and management anticipates positive adjusted EBITDA next year, with a decreasing loss ratio of 67% in Q2 [14] - The stock has risen 275% over the past year, and if it continues to grow while managing its loss ratio, it could significantly increase in value [15]