Core Viewpoint - The "devaluation trade" has emerged as a popular investment theme amid growing concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and the value of the dollar, driving both gold and Bitcoin prices to historic highs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Spot gold surpassed $3900 per ounce, marking a 0.35% daily increase and setting a new historical high, just days after breaking the $3800 threshold [1]. - Bitcoin reached a peak of $125,689, exceeding its previous record of $124,514 set on August 14 [1][2]. - The ICE Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.1%, with a year-to-date decline of approximately 10%, indicating a shift away from fiat currencies towards alternative assets viewed as stores of value [2]. Group 2: Underlying Factors - The "devaluation trade" is driven by long-term factors such as uncertainty regarding long-term inflation, U.S. fiscal policy, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the persistent high deficits faced by major economies [3]. - The recent U.S. government shutdown has prompted investors to seek decentralized assets for hedging, contrasting with previous shutdowns where Bitcoin's performance was lackluster [3]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Analysts are bullish on the outlook for gold and Bitcoin, with Citigroup's Alex Saunders predicting Bitcoin could reach $181,000 within 12 months, viewing it as "digital gold" [5]. - Komal Sri-Kumar, a former chief global strategist, anticipates gold prices will exceed $4000 by the end of the year, citing the erosion of currency values due to global tariff policies and economic slowdown [5]. - Fund manager Jeff Muhlenkamp has raised concerns about the U.S. deficit, which is currently around 6% to 6.5% of GDP, and has increased gold holdings to 18% in response to long-term worries about the dollar [5].