Core Insights - Goldman Sachs Conviction List features top stock picks for institutional and high-net-worth clients, highlighting companies with strong growth and income potential [1][2] - Five dividend-paying companies have been on the Conviction List for extended periods, all rated as Buy by Goldman Sachs [1] Company Summaries - **Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)**: - Dividend yield of 2.06% - Target price set at $67 - On the Conviction List for 362 days - Operates in Global Markets, Global Banking, Global Wealth & Investment Management, and Consumer Banking segments [1][2] - **Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)**: - Dividend yield of 2.10% - Target price set at $250 - On the Conviction List for 275 days - Focuses on pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and medical devices across Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments [1][2] - **Huntington Ingalls Industries (NYSE: HII)**: - Dividend yield of 1.33% - Target price set at $425 - On the Conviction List for 214 days - Engages in designing and constructing military ships and offers various naval nuclear support services [1][2] - **Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK)**: - Dividend yield of 3.37% - Target price set at $141 - On the Conviction List for 214 days - Operates in Electric Utilities and Infrastructure and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segments [1][2] - **Kontoor Brands (NYSE: KTB)**: - Dividend yield of 3.09% - Target price set at $84 - On the Conviction List for 214 days - A global lifestyle apparel company with brands like Wrangler and Lee [1][2]

ab 21 January 2026 The IEA slightly increased its projections for global oil demand growth, by 12kb/d in 2025 to 0.9Mb/d (UBSe +0.9Mb/d) and by 70kb/d in 2026 to 0.9Mb/d (UBSe +1.2Mb/ d). Absolute demand revisions rose by 130kb/d for 2025 and 200kb/d for 2026, driven by an upward revision to the base (+114kb/d for 2024). China's demand growth forecast was raised by 60kb/d for 2025, but reduced by 15kb/d to 180kb/d for both years. Non-OPEC+ growth also up Global Research First Read Global Oil Fundamentals La ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a modestly pro-risk stance for 2026, recommending an overweight (OW) position in equities and underweight (UW) in credit [6]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment has shown positive surprises, with growth being the primary driver of risk appetite in 2026 [4]. - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has reached its highest level since early 2025, indicating strong market sentiment [2]. - Growth repricing has been broad across regions and asset classes, with equities outperforming bonds and cyclicals outperforming defensives [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Since the beginning of 2026, macroeconomic indicators have generally exceeded expectations, with the US unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% and positive manufacturing data from Germany [1]. Market Sentiment - The RAI has accelerated above 0.9, marking the 96th percentile since 1991, suggesting that while small corrections may occur, strong equity returns can persist in a supportive macro backdrop [2]. Asset Performance - Certain assets, such as silver, have experienced their best start-of-year performance in decades, with the Russell 2000 showing the largest historical outperformance against the Nasdaq composite [5]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, particularly in APAC ex-Japan and emerging markets, while recommending underweight positions in credit and commodities like copper [6][23].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Gas - **Key Organization**: OPEC and OPEC+ partners Core Insights and Arguments - **Production Targets Confirmation**: OPEC+ confirmed production targets for all members until the end of 2026, which aligns with market expectations and is expected to be neutral for oil prices [2][3] - **Voluntary Cuts**: Eight OPEC+ members decided to pause their production increase in the first quarter of 2026, maintaining flexibility for future adjustments [2][3] - **Maximum Sustainable Production Capacity (MSC)**: OPEC+ agreed on a mechanism to assess MSC, which will serve as a reference for 2027 production baselines. This audit is unprecedented and aims to enhance transparency and stability in the oil market [3][4] - **Audit Process**: The audit will be conducted by US-based consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton, excluding countries under sanctions (Russia, Venezuela, and Iran). The process is expected to start early next year and conclude by September 2026 [3][4] - **Long-term Support for Oil Prices**: The audit mechanism could support oil prices in the second half of 2026 by highlighting reduced spare capacity, despite some members struggling to ramp up production recently [4] Short-term Focus - **Russia/Ukraine Situation**: Developments in the Russia/Ukraine conflict are critical in the near term, with potential agreements impacting refining and natural gas markets. A deal could lower the risk premium on oil prices, potentially bringing Brent crude below $60 per barrel temporarily [5] - **Current Oil Price Forecast**: The base case for oil prices is projected at $63 per barrel for Brent in Q4 2025 and $62 per barrel in Q1 2026, assuming no significant supply disruptions or peace agreements [5] Additional Important Information - **Production Capacity Data**: Current production levels and quotas for OPEC members indicate that some countries are not meeting their production targets, which could affect overall market dynamics [11] - **Volatility of Oil Prices**: Historical data shows that oil prices are highly volatile and influenced by unpredictable events, including geopolitical tensions and natural disasters [16] This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the oil industry's current state, OPEC's strategies, and the implications for future pricing and market stability.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's trade performance in September, highlighting significant growth in both exports and imports, which exceeded consensus expectations [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Trade Growth Acceleration**: - Exports increased by 8.3% year-over-year (yoy) in September, up from 4.4% in August. Imports rose by 7.4% yoy, compared to 1.3% in August [1][4]. - The trade surplus for September was reported at US$90.4 billion, a decrease from US$102.3 billion in August [1][3][7]. 2. **Regional Trade Dynamics**: - Exports to the US, Africa, and Latin America saw sequential increases, while exports to ASEAN, Japan, and the EU declined [8]. - Notably, exports to the US fell by 27.0% yoy in September, an improvement from a 33.1% decline in August. Imports from the US also decreased by 16.1% yoy [8]. 3. **Sector-Specific Performance**: - In terms of exports, metals and tech-related products saw growth, while housing-related products, automobiles, and textiles experienced declines [9]. - Exports of chips rose by 32.7% yoy, and rare-earth ores increased by 97.1% yoy, attributed to higher prices [9]. 4. **Import Trends**: - The import value of metal ores/products increased significantly, with iron ore imports rising by 13.4% yoy. However, the import value of automobiles fell by 36.4% yoy [10]. - Crude oil import volume increased by 3.9% yoy, despite a 7.4% decline in import value due to lower prices [10]. Additional Important Information - The report indicates that the increase in import growth may be influenced by a higher number of working days in September 2025 compared to 2024 [8]. - The detailed breakdown of trade by country and product is scheduled for release on October 20 [7]. - The report emphasizes that the trade data only covers major trading partners and products, accounting for approximately 65% of total exports and 50% of total imports [12]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding China's trade performance, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the current economic landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Asian export market**, particularly in the context of recent **US tariff shocks** and the **technology sector**'s performance. - Overall, **Asia's exports** increased by **7% in US dollar terms** and **8% in real terms** through August compared to the previous year [2][3]. Core Insights - **Tech Demand**: The **AI boom** has significantly bolstered Asia's exports, with tech exports accounting for over **60% of total year-on-year gains** in the first half of the year [2][4]. - **Taiwan's Performance**: Taiwan's exports surged by **30% year-on-year** in August, contributing to **one-third of the region's total export gains** [2][4]. - **US-Bound Exports**: In August, **China's tech exports to the US dropped by 70%** compared to Q4 of the previous year, while **exports from the rest of Asia increased by 80%** [11][15]. - **Supply Chain Shifts**: Ongoing shifts in Asia's supply chains, accelerated by US tariffs and the AI boom, are expected to impact macroeconomic trends and financial markets across the region [19][32]. Additional Important Points - **Taiwan's Tech Dominance**: More than **70% of Taiwan's exports** are tech products, including high-end chips and servers critical for AI training [5][30]. - **US Tariff Exemptions**: US imports of high-end tech products from Taiwan have remained exempt from tariffs, which may continue due to potential waivers for companies establishing manufacturing in the US [5][19]. - **Taiwan's Trade Surplus**: Taiwan's trade surplus reached a record high of **23% of GDP** in August, indicating strong external balance [33]. - **Future Expectations**: Asia's exports are expected to remain resilient due to strong global tech demand and sustained gains in China's exports to non-US destinations [19][30]. Market Implications - The **USDTWD** exchange rate has been stable despite Taiwan's strong export performance, but pressures for TWD appreciation may resurface due to upcoming US-Taiwan trade negotiations and Taiwan's substantial net foreign assets of **USD 1.6 trillion** [33]. - The **reconfiguration of tech supply chains** is likely to continue, with significant shifts in trade flows between the US and China, as well as within Asia [23][30]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the resilience of Asia's export market, particularly in the tech sector, and the implications of ongoing supply chain shifts and tariff policies.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's trade growth moderated in May, with exports increasing by 4.8% year-over-year (yoy) and imports decreasing by 3.4% yoy, falling short of consensus expectations [1][9] - The decline in exports to the US continued, with a sequential decline of 17% after seasonal adjustment, following a 25% decline in April [1][9] - The trade surplus for May was reported at US$103.2 billion, an increase from US$96.2 billion in April [1][3] Summary by Sections Trade Growth - Year-over-year trade growth in May showed exports rising by 4.8% yoy compared to 8.1% yoy in April, while imports fell by 3.4% yoy from a decline of 0.2% yoy in April [2][9] - Sequentially, exports decreased by 0.7% non-annualized in May, while imports dropped by 6.3% non-annualized [2][9] Regional Analysis - Exports to the US fell significantly, with a 34.5% yoy decline in May, while exports to the EU rose by 12.0% yoy [10] - Imports from the US also declined by 18.1% yoy, while imports from the EU remained roughly unchanged [10] Product Categories - Export values for housing-related products fell, with home appliances declining by 8.9% yoy, while automobile exports increased by 13.7% yoy and chip exports rose by 33.4% yoy [11] - Import values for energy products and metal ores saw notable declines, with crude oil imports falling by 22.1% yoy [12]

Investment Rating - The report indicates an overall positive sentiment towards US equities and core fixed income, suggesting an overweight (OW) position in these areas [12]. Core Insights - Equity markets experienced a rally in May, with the S&P 500 gaining 6.3% and the TOPIX increasing by 5.0%. Technology and communication services sectors led the gains, while healthcare lagged with a decline of 3.7% [2][11]. - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) shifted to a neutral stance after initially signaling risk-off, with the VIX index reaching three-month lows [4][11]. - Gross issuance in the investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) markets decreased by 12% and 28% respectively compared to the 2024 run rate, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][11]. Market Review & Trends - **Equities**: The S&P 500 had its best May performance since 1990, with total returns of 6.3%. The technology sector outperformed with a 10.3% increase [5][11]. - **Fixed Income**: The UST 10Y yield was reported at 4.4%, with a total return of -1.1% for the month [11][32]. - **FX**: The US dollar depreciated against most developed market currencies, with the DXY index down 0.1% [2][34]. - **Commodities**: WTI Crude oil saw a notable increase of 5.3% in May [2][34]. Valuations - The report highlights that the current P/E ratio for the S&P 500 stands at 23.3, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [27][30]. - The forward P/E for various sectors shows that communication services and consumer discretionary sectors are at 90% and 88% percentile respectively, suggesting high valuations [31][30]. Technicals - The report notes a significant decrease in gross issuance for both IG and HY markets, with a year-over-year decline of 12% for DM IG and 28% for DM HY [3][11]. - The cumulative change in the Fed rate over the next 12 months is projected to be -84 basis points, indicating expectations of rate cuts [11][12].