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新东方-S(09901.HK):教育业务增速触底 优质口碑带动营收增长提速
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-01 03:29
维持增持评级。公司指引2QFY26 收入同比增长9-12%,增速高于全年收入指引(同比增长5-10%)。 我们认为教育业务增长开始恢复主要基于优异的教学口碑。2Q 正价班续班率有望持续提升,从而带动 营收增长提速。我们上调公司FY26-FY28 财年收入至53.8 亿、59.8 亿、67.3 亿美元(原预测为52.8 亿、57.9 亿、64.3 亿美元)。由于出国留学业务收缩触底,对利润率的拖累预计即将出清。同时公司教 学网点的增长速度放缓至10%,保持和收入增速同步。因此利润率压力逐步出清。我们上调FY26-FY28 财年Non-GAAP 净利润至5.55 亿、6.1 亿、6.79 亿美元(原预测为5.49 亿、5.83 亿、6.58 亿美元)。我 们上调DCF 目标价至69.9 美元(目标价对应54.9 港元每股,每一股ADR 等于10 股普通股,港股交易的 是普通股),维持增持评级。 风险提示:非学科培训监管政策加码;海外地缘政治因素导致境外留学签证受阻,业务恢复放缓。 新东方1QFY26 收入15.23 亿美元,同比增长6.1%。其中教育业务(含文旅)实现收入13.66亿美元,同 比增长8.5%。其他 ...
新东方-S(09901):教育业务增速触底,优质口碑带动营收增长提速
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 FY26 reached $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with the education business (including cultural tourism) generating $1.366 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year [6]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% increase, with a Non-GAAP operating margin of 22%, expanding by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - The company announced a shareholder return plan, distributing $190 million in cash dividends and repurchasing up to $300 million in stock [6]. Revenue and Business Performance - The overseas examination training and consulting business generated $328 million in revenue, growing 1% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed by 19 percentage points compared to the previous year [7]. - New business segments, including K9 non-academic training and learning machines, maintained high growth, with Q1 revenue increasing 15% to $403 million [7]. - The number of teaching locations increased to 1,347, a 24% year-on-year growth, continuing the trend of high expansion [7]. Profitability and Financial Forecast - The company expects Q2 FY26 revenue to grow by 9-12% year-on-year, which is higher than the full-year guidance of 5-10% growth [9]. - Revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been revised upwards to $5.38 billion, $5.98 billion, and $6.73 billion, respectively [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY26-FY28 have also been increased to $555 million, $610 million, and $679 million, respectively [9]. Financial Data Summary - The projected revenue and net profit figures for FY24 to FY28 are as follows: - FY24 Revenue: $4.314 billion, Net Profit: $464 million - FY25 Revenue: $4.900 billion, Net Profit: $517 million - FY26E Revenue: $5.383 billion, Net Profit: $555 million - FY27E Revenue: $5.978 billion, Net Profit: $610 million - FY28E Revenue: $6.725 billion, Net Profit: $679 million [10][12].