证券研究报告 时代天使 (6699 HK) 港股通 海内外业务巩固驱动案例数持续高增 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 3 月 31 日│中国香港 | | 目标价(港币): | 98.59 | | 公司公布 | 2025 年报业绩：实现收入 | 3.70 亿美元（+37.8% yoy）；归母净 | 代雯，PhD | 研究员 | | 利润 | 0.28 亿美元（+135% yoy）；经调整净利润 | 0.44 亿美元（+63.0% | SAC No. S0570526010001 SFC No. BFI915 | daiwen@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2078 | | yoy），超 | Wind 一致预期。公司 | 25 年业绩超预期，主因： 1）收入侧，中 | | | | 国业务案例数受益基层市场开拓+市场份额提升快速增长，海外业务案例数 | | | 沈卢庆 | 研究员 | | | | | SAC No. S0570519060001 | shenluqing@hts ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 98.59 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 370.28 million for 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 37.8%, and a net profit of USD 28.44 million, up 135% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations [6][9]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the expansion of case numbers in the domestic market due to grassroots market development and increased market share, as well as a rise in overseas case numbers driven by brand recognition [6][7]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 22% year-over-year in 2026, with adjusted net profit projected to grow by 32% [6][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the company achieved a revenue of USD 370.28 million and a net profit of USD 28.44 million, with adjusted net profit at USD 43.77 million [5][6]. - The total number of cases reached 532,000, marking a 48% year-over-year increase [6][8]. Domestic Business - The domestic market generated USD 207 million in revenue for 2025, a 10.1% increase year-over-year, with case numbers growing to 276,000, up 26.3% year-over-year [7][8]. - The company anticipates reaching 325,000 cases in 2026, representing an 18% year-over-year increase, driven by deeper penetration into lower-tier cities and the introduction of early orthodontic products [7][8]. Overseas Business - The overseas market generated USD 163 million in revenue for 2025, a significant 102.5% increase year-over-year, with case numbers climbing to 256,000, up 82.1% year-over-year [8][9]. - The company expects to achieve monthly profitability by the end of 2026, supported by improved operational efficiency and the launch of international products [8][9]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EPS for 2026 is projected at USD 0.34, with a target price based on a 37x PE ratio, aligning with comparable companies [9][11]. - The report indicates an upward revision in revenue forecasts due to strong overseas case growth and improved domestic market share [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 91.10, up from a previous target of HKD 87.02 [5][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 1H25 reached USD 161 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.1%, while net profit surged by 583.6% to USD 14 million. Adjusted net profit also increased by 84.8% to USD 20 million, aligning with prior profit forecasts [1]. - The growth in profit is attributed to robust case growth in the domestic market and sustained high growth in overseas revenue. The delay in the investment in new overseas factories resulted in lower operational costs for 1H25, highlighting the potential for overseas business performance without additional factory investments [1]. - Looking ahead to 2H25, the company expects stable net profit figures due to ongoing case growth domestically and internationally, despite uncertainties in the domestic market and increased costs related to overseas supply chain development and patent improvements [1]. Domestic Business Summary - In 1H25, the domestic market generated USD 90 million in revenue, remaining stable compared to 1H24. The case volume grew by 14% year-on-year to approximately 95,300 cases [2]. - For the full year of 2025, the company anticipates domestic case volume to reach 250,000 cases, driven by the demand for children's orthodontics and product upgrades for adult patients [2]. Overseas Business Summary - The overseas market achieved USD 72 million in revenue for 1H25, marking a 123% year-on-year increase, with case volume rising by 103.5% to 117,200 cases [3]. - The company expects continued high growth in overseas case volume, potentially reaching 240,000 to 250,000 cases for the year, supported by improved product recognition and local sales support structures [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EPS forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is USD 0.16, USD 0.16, and USD 0.21 respectively. The company is assigned a 73x PE for 2025, reflecting a premium over comparable companies due to its unique market position and growth potential [4][5]. - The target price of HKD 91.10 reflects the company's growth trajectory and market conditions, with a significant upside from the current closing price of HKD 68.10 [5].