Summary of Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The oil transportation market has shown a lackluster performance over the past three years, but the average VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) earnings have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, currently averaging around $44,000, although with significant volatility [2][20] - OPEC's decision to maintain production increases and negotiations regarding the Iran nuclear deal are favorable for the VLCC market, while U.S. tariffs primarily impact large container shipping companies [2][4] - The container shipping sector has seen stable rates in the Southeast Asian market post U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with significant year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [2][6] - LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) transportation is expected to benefit from the launch of two to three self-operated LNG vessels in 2025, while the roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) business is gaining a competitive edge through the introduction of new vessels [2][7] Key Points and Arguments - The oil tanker market is expected to experience reduced volatility in 2025, with strong resilience in median pricing. Factors such as OPEC's production increases and unexpected demand from the Middle East are beneficial for VLCC supply and demand dynamics [2][8] - The company has paused its U.S. oil loading operations for nearly a month, but the impact on long-haul operations is limited due to optimization of customer and cargo structures [4][5] - The bulk shipping sector is projected to perform relatively weakly in 2025, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) showing a year-on-year decline, necessitating close monitoring of market dynamics for potential growth opportunities [4][9] - The company anticipates that the container shipping business will remain a significant contributor in 2025, with a notable increase in Q1 performance despite no significant changes in overall supply chain routes [6][2] - The roll-on/roll-off business is gradually replacing older vessels with new ones, which will help meet IMO carbon emission regulations and provide cost advantages [7][2] Additional Important Insights - The oil transportation market's performance has been weaker than expected due to factors such as slower-than-anticipated retirement of older vessels and the emergence of non-compliant fleets, which hinder market efficiency [11][20] - Saudi Arabia increased oil production by 400,000 barrels in May 2025, but this increase may not be sustained, with market speculation about further production increases pending official announcements [12][4] - The anticipated rise in freight rates from late May to June 2025 may be tempered by seasonal factors such as refinery maintenance [13][4] - U.S. sanctions on Chinese ports and companies have reduced direct Iranian oil shipments to China, leading to increased transshipment operations through Malaysia [14][4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains optimistic, with current average earnings exceeding pre-pandemic levels despite significant fluctuations [20][2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. The report is optimistic about the improvement in the oil transportation supply-demand structure, which is expected to enhance the company's performance [1][4]. - The company is recognized as a global leader in oil transportation and a key player in China's LNG transportation sector, with significant competitive advantages in the oil and gas import transportation market [4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 23.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with a gross profit of 6.33 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 27.2% [1]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 17.4%, with a net profit of 4.04 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was 3.98 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [1][5]. Business Segment Performance - The foreign trade oil transportation segment generated revenue of 14.57 billion yuan in 2024, up 4.1% year-on-year, but the gross profit decreased by 13.5% to 3.59 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.6% [2]. - The domestic oil transportation segment saw a revenue decline of 4.8% to 5.91 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase in gross margin to 25.0% [2]. - The LNG transportation segment contributed a net profit of 0.81 billion yuan, up 2.66% year-on-year [2]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend payout ratio of 50.82% for 2024, with an annual dividend of 0.43 yuan per share, an increase of 0.08 yuan per share compared to 2023. This results in a dividend yield of 3.8% based on the stock price of 11.41 yuan as of March 27, 2025 [2]. Capacity and Fleet - As of December 31, 2024, the company had the world's largest oil tanker fleet, comprising 159 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 23.74 million tons. Additionally, there are 12 oil tankers under construction [3]. - The LNG fleet includes 50 operational vessels with a total capacity of 8.42 million cubic meters, and 37 LNG vessels are under construction [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26 billion yuan in 2025, 26.85 billion yuan in 2026, and 28.28 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 11.8%, 3.3%, and 5.3% respectively [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 5.03 billion yuan in 2025, 5.42 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.77 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 24.5%, 7.8%, and 6.5% respectively [5][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in oil transportation, with a positive supply-demand outlook and undervalued asset value [1] - The foreign trade oil transportation business is actively expanding into Western markets, maintaining diversified sources of cargo [2] - The LNG transportation business is experiencing steady growth [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 232.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, with Q4 revenue of 61.00 billion, down 1.59% year-on-year [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 40.37 billion, up 19.37% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit of 6.21 billion, turning from loss to profit [4] - The company's operating volume (excluding time charter) reached 18 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with a transportation turnover of 604 billion ton-miles, up 13.6% year-on-year [4] - The company maintained the world's largest fleet of oil tankers, with 159 owned tankers totaling 23.74 million deadweight tons [4] - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated revenue of 145.74 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, but gross profit decreased by 13.5% [4] - The LNG transportation business achieved revenue of 22.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with gross profit of 10.76 billion, up 25.23% [4] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 265.50 billion, 281.14 billion, and 288.00 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.22%, 5.89%, and 2.44% respectively [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 46.84 billion, 51.88 billion, and 54.77 billion for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.05%, 10.75%, and 5.56% respectively [7] - The corresponding EPS for 2025 is expected to be 0.98, with a P/E ratio of 11.64 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a positive trend in its oil transportation business, actively expanding into Western markets and maintaining a diversified source of cargo [2] - The LNG transportation business has demonstrated steady growth [3] - The company reported a total revenue of 232.44 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 40.37 billion yuan, up 19.37% year-on-year [4] - The company maintained the world's largest fleet of oil tankers, with 159 owned vessels totaling 23.74 million deadweight tons [4] - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated revenue of 145.74 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, despite a 13.5% decline in gross profit [4] - The LNG transportation business achieved revenue of 22.29 billion yuan, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 10.76 billion yuan, up 25.23% [4] Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve revenues of 265.50 billion yuan, 281.14 billion yuan, and 288.00 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 46.84 billion yuan, 51.88 billion yuan, and 54.77 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 16.05%, 10.75%, and 5.56% respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.98 yuan, 1.09 yuan, and 1.15 yuan for 2025 to 2027, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio expected to be 11.64, 10.51, and 9.96 [7] - The company reported a gross profit margin of 27.2% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.3% [6]

作为全球领先的油轮船东，集团以覆盖全球的营销与服务网络、扎实的船舶与安全管理水平和"以客户 为中心"的经营理念，持续为国内外客户提供优质的能源运输服务。同时，中国作为全球最大的石油和 天然气进口国，其庞大的油气进口体量为集团带来丰富的客户群体与商业机遇。通过长期的深入合作， 集团与各大石油公司以及国内独立炼厂建立了良好的战略伙伴关系，为集团业务发展与价值创造能力提 升打下了重要基础。 集团是中国LNG运输业务的引领者，也是世界LNG运输市场的重要参与者。集团所属全资的上海中远 海运液化天然气投资有限公司("上海LNG")和持有50%股权的中国液化天然气运输(控股)有限公司 ("CLNG")，是国内领先的大型LNG运输公司。截至2024年12月31日，集团共参与投资87艘LNG船舶， 其中，已投入运营的LNG船舶50艘、842万立方米;在建LNG船舶37艘、663万立方米;另有光租租入1艘 LNG船舶、17.4万立方米，已投入运营。营运船均服务于长期租约，收益较为稳定。近年来，随着集团 参与投资建造的LNG船舶陆续投入运营，集团LNG运输业务已步入收获期。 集团LPG运输业务由所属大连海能经营，主要从事国内沿海 ...