事件：中远海能（600026.SH）2025年三季度报告。 营业收入：25Q1～3 累计实现171.08 亿元，同比下滑-2.55%，其中25Q3 实现54.66 亿元，同比增速 为-2.55%。 归母净利润：25Q1～3 累计实现27.23 亿元，同比下滑21.22%，其中25Q3 实现8.53 亿元，同比增速为 4.37%。 扣非归母净利润：25Q1～3 累计实现24.84 亿元，同比下滑25.85%，其中25Q3 分别实现7.10 亿元，同 比增速为-3.00%。 点评： 油运业务：9 月单月TD3C-TCE 接近8 万美元/日，提振25Q4 财务效益预期。 外贸油运业务：25Q1～3 累计实现毛利润17.9 亿元，同比下滑43.2%，其中25Q1、25Q2、25Q3 分别实 现5.4、7.5、5.0，同比增速分别为-55.90%、-43.13%、-18.64%。 内贸油运业务：25Q1～3 累计实现毛利润10.2 亿元，同比下滑9.7%，其中25Q1、25Q2、25Q3 分别实现 3.3、3.3、3.6，同比增速分别为-9.30%、-3.28%、-14.70%。 其他业务：LNG 运输业务维持稳健，L ...

[Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 中远海能(600026) | 投资评级 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 增持 | 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号 S1500524070004 邮箱 kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 黄安 交运行业分析师 执业编号 S1500524110001 邮箱 huangan@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 中远海能（600026.SH）2024 年年报点 评：归母净利润+19.37%，外贸油运积 极拓展西方市场 中远海能（600026.SH）深度报告：全 球油运龙头，供需向好资产价值低估 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 中远海能（600026.SH）2025 年三季度报告点评： Q3 归母净利润+4.37%，9 月运价上涨提振业绩预期 [Table ...

Summary of Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The oil transportation market has shown a lackluster performance over the past three years, but the average VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) earnings have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, currently averaging around $44,000, although with significant volatility [2][20] - OPEC's decision to maintain production increases and negotiations regarding the Iran nuclear deal are favorable for the VLCC market, while U.S. tariffs primarily impact large container shipping companies [2][4] - The container shipping sector has seen stable rates in the Southeast Asian market post U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with significant year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [2][6] - LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) transportation is expected to benefit from the launch of two to three self-operated LNG vessels in 2025, while the roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) business is gaining a competitive edge through the introduction of new vessels [2][7] Key Points and Arguments - The oil tanker market is expected to experience reduced volatility in 2025, with strong resilience in median pricing. Factors such as OPEC's production increases and unexpected demand from the Middle East are beneficial for VLCC supply and demand dynamics [2][8] - The company has paused its U.S. oil loading operations for nearly a month, but the impact on long-haul operations is limited due to optimization of customer and cargo structures [4][5] - The bulk shipping sector is projected to perform relatively weakly in 2025, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) showing a year-on-year decline, necessitating close monitoring of market dynamics for potential growth opportunities [4][9] - The company anticipates that the container shipping business will remain a significant contributor in 2025, with a notable increase in Q1 performance despite no significant changes in overall supply chain routes [6][2] - The roll-on/roll-off business is gradually replacing older vessels with new ones, which will help meet IMO carbon emission regulations and provide cost advantages [7][2] Additional Important Insights - The oil transportation market's performance has been weaker than expected due to factors such as slower-than-anticipated retirement of older vessels and the emergence of non-compliant fleets, which hinder market efficiency [11][20] - Saudi Arabia increased oil production by 400,000 barrels in May 2025, but this increase may not be sustained, with market speculation about further production increases pending official announcements [12][4] - The anticipated rise in freight rates from late May to June 2025 may be tempered by seasonal factors such as refinery maintenance [13][4] - U.S. sanctions on Chinese ports and companies have reduced direct Iranian oil shipments to China, leading to increased transshipment operations through Malaysia [14][4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains optimistic, with current average earnings exceeding pre-pandemic levels despite significant fluctuations [20][2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. The report is optimistic about the improvement in the oil transportation supply-demand structure, which is expected to enhance the company's performance [1][4]. - The company is recognized as a global leader in oil transportation and a key player in China's LNG transportation sector, with significant competitive advantages in the oil and gas import transportation market [4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 23.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with a gross profit of 6.33 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 27.2% [1]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 17.4%, with a net profit of 4.04 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was 3.98 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [1][5]. Business Segment Performance - The foreign trade oil transportation segment generated revenue of 14.57 billion yuan in 2024, up 4.1% year-on-year, but the gross profit decreased by 13.5% to 3.59 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.6% [2]. - The domestic oil transportation segment saw a revenue decline of 4.8% to 5.91 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase in gross margin to 25.0% [2]. - The LNG transportation segment contributed a net profit of 0.81 billion yuan, up 2.66% year-on-year [2]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend payout ratio of 50.82% for 2024, with an annual dividend of 0.43 yuan per share, an increase of 0.08 yuan per share compared to 2023. This results in a dividend yield of 3.8% based on the stock price of 11.41 yuan as of March 27, 2025 [2]. Capacity and Fleet - As of December 31, 2024, the company had the world's largest oil tanker fleet, comprising 159 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 23.74 million tons. Additionally, there are 12 oil tankers under construction [3]. - The LNG fleet includes 50 operational vessels with a total capacity of 8.42 million cubic meters, and 37 LNG vessels are under construction [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26 billion yuan in 2025, 26.85 billion yuan in 2026, and 28.28 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 11.8%, 3.3%, and 5.3% respectively [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 5.03 billion yuan in 2025, 5.42 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.77 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 24.5%, 7.8%, and 6.5% respectively [5][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in oil transportation, with a positive supply-demand outlook and undervalued asset value [1] - The foreign trade oil transportation business is actively expanding into Western markets, maintaining diversified sources of cargo [2] - The LNG transportation business is experiencing steady growth [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 232.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, with Q4 revenue of 61.00 billion, down 1.59% year-on-year [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 40.37 billion, up 19.37% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit of 6.21 billion, turning from loss to profit [4] - The company's operating volume (excluding time charter) reached 18 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with a transportation turnover of 604 billion ton-miles, up 13.6% year-on-year [4] - The company maintained the world's largest fleet of oil tankers, with 159 owned tankers totaling 23.74 million deadweight tons [4] - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated revenue of 145.74 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, but gross profit decreased by 13.5% [4] - The LNG transportation business achieved revenue of 22.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with gross profit of 10.76 billion, up 25.23% [4] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 265.50 billion, 281.14 billion, and 288.00 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.22%, 5.89%, and 2.44% respectively [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 46.84 billion, 51.88 billion, and 54.77 billion for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.05%, 10.75%, and 5.56% respectively [7] - The corresponding EPS for 2025 is expected to be 0.98, with a P/E ratio of 11.64 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a positive trend in its oil transportation business, actively expanding into Western markets and maintaining a diversified source of cargo [2] - The LNG transportation business has demonstrated steady growth [3] - The company reported a total revenue of 232.44 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 40.37 billion yuan, up 19.37% year-on-year [4] - The company maintained the world's largest fleet of oil tankers, with 159 owned vessels totaling 23.74 million deadweight tons [4] - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated revenue of 145.74 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, despite a 13.5% decline in gross profit [4] - The LNG transportation business achieved revenue of 22.29 billion yuan, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 10.76 billion yuan, up 25.23% [4] Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve revenues of 265.50 billion yuan, 281.14 billion yuan, and 288.00 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 46.84 billion yuan, 51.88 billion yuan, and 54.77 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 16.05%, 10.75%, and 5.56% respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.98 yuan, 1.09 yuan, and 1.15 yuan for 2025 to 2027, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio expected to be 11.64, 10.51, and 9.96 [7] - The company reported a gross profit margin of 27.2% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.3% [6]

Core Insights - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.038 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [1] - The company's total revenue reached RMB 23.133 billion, reflecting a growth of 2.57% compared to the previous year [1] - The company holds the world's largest tanker fleet, with a total of 159 vessels and a deadweight tonnage of 23.74 million [1] Group 1: Business Operations - The company operates a diverse range of oil transportation services, utilizing both owned and controlled vessels for spot market charters, time charters, and contracts with cargo owners [1] - The company provides comprehensive logistics solutions, including foreign trade imports, domestic transshipment, refined oil transportation, and downstream chemical product transport [1] - The company has established strong strategic partnerships with major oil companies and independent refineries, enhancing its business development and value creation capabilities [2] Group 2: LNG and LPG Transportation - COSCO Shipping is a leader in China's LNG transportation sector and a significant player in the global LNG market, with investments in 87 LNG vessels [2] - As of December 31, 2024, the company has 50 operational LNG vessels with a total capacity of 8.42 million cubic meters and 37 vessels under construction [2] - The LPG transportation business operates 11 vessels with a capacity of 42,599 cubic meters, focusing on domestic and international LPG water transportation [3] Group 3: Chemical Transportation - The chemical transportation segment is managed by Shanghai COSCO Shipping Chemical Transportation Co., Ltd., specializing in bulk chemical transportation [3] - The company operates 8 chemical vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 72,940 and has 1 vessel under construction [3]