集装箱运输市场日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1450~1550 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1200~1300 | source： 南华期货 —— SCFI降幅再度扩大 2025/8/22 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货各月合约价格整体走势震荡略偏下行。截至收盘，除EC2508外，EC各月合 约价格均有所下行。从交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看，EC2510合约多头减仓119手至2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) continued to fluctuate. As of the close, except for a slight decline in the EC2604 contract, the prices of the remaining contracts slightly rebounded. Some contracts have reached short - term lows, some short - sellers took profits and left the market, and the trading sentiment was relatively calm. Affected by geopolitical risks, the futures prices continued a slight upward trend. The decline of the SCFI European Line has widened, and it is expected that the EC will generally continue to fluctuate or return to a fluctuating trend. In the medium term, without sudden events, based on fundamental considerations, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly downward [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For position management, if one has obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booking volume is poor, and is worried about the decline in freight rates, with a long spot position, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1450 - 1550 to lock in profits [1]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the intensity of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they want to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot position, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1200 - 1300 to determine the booking cost in advance [1]. EC Basis Daily Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 151.68 | 0.10 | - 12.80 | | EC2510 | 861.88 | - 14.10 | 62.40 | | EC2512 | 472.48 | - 39.70 | - 3.00 | | EC2602 | 705.38 | - 8.70 | 0.30 | | EC2604 | 903.48 | 3.00 | 21.00 | | EC2606 | 747.98 | 7.50 | - 59.38 | [4][6] EC Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2083.8 | 0.00% | 0.62% | | EC2510 | 1373.6 | 1.04% | - 4.35% | | EC2512 | 1763.0 | 2.30% | 0.17% | | EC2602 | 1530.1 | 0.57% | - 0.02% | | EC2604 | 1332.0 | - 0.69% | - 1.55% | | EC2606 | 1487.5 | - 0.50% | - 0.20% | [6] | Spread | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 - 2512 | 320.8 | - 39.8 | 9.8 | | EC2512 - 2604 | 431.0 | 42.7 | 21.2 | | EC2604 - 2508 | - 751.8 | - 2.9 | - 22.1 | | EC2508 - 2510 | 710.2 | - 39.8 | 75.2 | | EC2510 - 2512 | - 389.4 | - 25.6 | - 65.4 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 232.9 | 31 | - 9.2 | [6] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 28, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1405, an increase of $15 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2370, an increase of $30 compared to the previous period [8]. - In mid - to late August, for some sailings of ONE's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the opening quote for 20GP was $1634, a decrease of $130 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2543, a decrease of $200 compared to the previous period [8]. Global Freight Rate Index | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Points) | 2235.48 | 2297.86 | - 62.38 | - 2.71% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Points) | 1082.14 | 1130.12 | - 47.98 | - 4.25% | | SCFI: European Route ($/TEU) | 1820 | 1961 | - 141 | - 7.19% | | SCFI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 1759 | 1823 | - 64 | - 3.51% | | XSI: European Line ($/FEU) | 3181 | 3202 | - 21 | - 0.66% | | XSI: US West Line ($/FEU) | 1913 | 1931 | - 18 | - 0.9% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 2135 | 2141 | - 6 | - 0.28% | [9] Global Major Port Waiting Times | Port | August 14, 2025 | August 13, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 0.538 | 0.486 | 0.052 | 0.437 | | Shanghai Port | 1.780 | 1.386 | 0.394 | 1.365 | | Yantian Port | 0.921 | 1.034 | - 0.113 | 0.869 | | Singapore Port | 1.158 | 0.620 | 0.538 | 0.535 | | Jakarta Port | 1.684 | 1.533 | 0.151 | 2.645 | | Long Beach Port | 1.551 | 1.829 | - 0.278 | 1.562 | | Savannah Port | 1.606 | 1.267 | 0.339 | 1.365 | [16] Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports | Ship Type | August 14, 2025 | August 13, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000 + | 15.916 | 15.952 | - 0.036 | 15.988 | | 3000 + | 15.018 | 15.031 | - 0.013 | 15.106 | | 1000 + | 13.37 | 13.295 | 0.075 | 13.59 | | Ships waiting at Suez Canal ports | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) fluctuated slightly. By the close, except for the EC2512 and 2604 contracts which rebounded slightly, the prices of the other monthly contracts declined slightly. Looking at the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, for the EC2510 contract, the long positions increased by 43 lots to 27,706 lots, the short positions decreased by 174 lots to 33,222 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 26,940 lots to 31,894 lots (bilateral). The futures price fluctuated as expected, but some major shipping companies (CMA CGM) were still lowering the spot cabin quotes for the European Line, so the near - month contracts declined slightly. For the future, it is expected that the probability of EC returning to a fluctuating and slightly declining or fluctuating trend is relatively high; in the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly declining [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained cabin positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume, and are worried about the decline in freight rates, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and a recommended entry range of 1500 - 1600 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or are about to enter the peak season, and hope to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and a recommended entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. 3.2利多解读 (Positive Interpretation) - Maersk's Q2 2025 performance was strong, with revenue increasing by 2.8% year - on - year and EBIT reaching $845 million. Although it declined quarter - on - quarter, the overall performance was on par with the same period last year. The second - half guidance was raised, mainly due to the continuous strength of the terminal business, the increase in the shipping volume of the shipping segment, the enhanced profitability of the logistics and service business, and the continuous optimization of operations and strict cost control in each business segment. Given the stronger resilience of demand in non - North American markets, Maersk decided to raise its full - year 2025 financial guidance. The shipping volume increased by 4.2% year - on - year, mainly from Asian exports. Although the freight rate was still under pressure, it had rebounded within the quarter. The Gemini cooperation alliance was fully implemented in June, and the network reliability score exceeded the 90% target in the first month [2]. 3.3利空解读 (Negative Interpretation) - CMA CGM continued to lower the spot cabin quotes for the European Line in mid - August, and the new weekly spot cabin opening quotes of MSK for the European Line declined again [3]. 3.4 EC Basis, Price, and Spread - **EC Basis**: On August 7, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 225.16 points, with a daily decline of 1.40 points and a weekly increase of 30.20 points; the basis of EC2510 was 877.46 points, with a daily decline of 0.30 points and a weekly decline of 14.00 points; etc. [3][4]. - **EC Price and Spread**: The closing price of EC2508 was 2072.7 points, with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 2.30%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1420.4 points, with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly decrease of 0.33%; etc. The spread between EC2508 - 2512 was 309.5 points, with a daily decrease of 10.4 points and a weekly decrease of 119.8 points; etc. [4]. 3.5 Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 21, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1595, an increase of $10 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2670, an increase of $20 compared to the previous period. For some sailings of CMA CGM from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the first and middle of August, the total quote for 20GP was $1810, a decrease of $75 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3220, a decrease of $125 compared to the previous period. In the second half of August, for some sailings of CMA CGM from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1860, a decrease of $25 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3320, a decrease of $25 compared to the previous period [6]. 3.6 Global Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS**: The European route was at 2297.86 points, a decrease of 18.7 points or 0.81% compared to the previous value; the US - West route was at 1130.12 points, a decrease of 153.89 points or 11.99% compared to the previous value [7]. - **SCFI**: The European route was at $2051/TEU, a decrease of $39 or 1.87% compared to the previous value; the US - West route was at $2021/FEU, a decrease of $46 or 2.23% compared to the previous value [7]. - **XSI**: The European Line was at $3386/FEU, a decrease of $3 or 0.09% compared to the previous value; the US - West Line was at $2018/FEU, a decrease of $90 or 4.3% compared to the previous value [7]. - **FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index**: It was at $2229/FEU, a decrease of $73 or 3.17% compared to the previous value [7]. 3.7 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On August 6, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.336 days, a decrease of 0.095 days compared to August 5; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.721 days, a decrease of 0.169 days; etc. [14]. 3.8 Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On August 6, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.987 knots, an increase of 0.193 knots compared to August 5; the average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.792 knots, a decrease of 0.024 knots; etc. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 15, an increase of 8 compared to August 5 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened lower and fluctuated. By the close, except for a slight decline in the EC2508 contract, the prices of other monthly contracts rebounded slightly. The collective and continuous reduction of the spot cabin quotes for the European Line around mid - August by some mainstream shipping companies led to the lower opening of the futures prices. Then, some contracts rebounded as expected due to reaching short - term lows and being affected by the sentiment in the commodity market. For the future, the new weekly opening quotes of MSK have significantly declined again, and it is more likely that the EC will return to a fluctuating and slightly downward trend. In the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly downward [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestion - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about a decline in freight rates, one can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling suggestion and an entry range of 1500 - 1600 [1]. - For cost management, when shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one hopes to book cabins according to order situations, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying suggestion and an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. Market News - According to Israeli media on August 4th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "tends to expand the Israeli military's military operations in the Gaza Strip and control the entire Gaza Strip", and the Israeli cabinet will hold a decision - making meeting on this on August 5th [2]. - Some mainstream shipping companies reduced the spot cabin quotes for the European Line around mid - August today, and MSK's new weekly quotes for the European Line spot cabins declined again [3]. EC Basis Daily Changes | Contract | Basis (points) | Daily Change (points) | Weekly Change (points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 209.06 | 33.50 | 3.50 | | EC2510 | 884.86 | 8.80 | 28.30 | | EC2512 | 607.36 | - 13.30 | 25.80 | | EC2602 | 805.46 | - 22.20 | 10.20 | | EC2604 | 966.86 | - 15.90 | 20.30 | [4] EC Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price (points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread Contract | Closing Price (points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2088.8 | - 1.58% | - 1.05% | EC2508 - 2512 | 398.3 | - 46.8 | 22.3 | | EC2510 | 1413.0 | - 0.62% | - 3.22% | EC2512 - 2604 | 359.5 | - 2.6 | 1.0 | | EC2512 | 1690.5 | 0.79% | - 2.56% | EC2604 - 2508 | - 757.8 | 49.4 | 93.1 | | EC2602 | 1492.4 | 1.51% | - 1.90% | EC2508 - 2510 | 675.8 | - 46.8 | 24.8 | | EC2604 | 1331.0 | 1.21% | - 2.85% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 277.5 | - 22.1 | - 2.5 | | EC2606 | 1471.6 | 1.27% | - 2.21% | EC2512 - 2602 | 198.1 | - 8.9 | - 3.3 | [6] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes (CY - CY, Shanghai - Rotterdam) - For Maersk in mid - to late August, the total quote for 20GP on August 14th was $1760, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2960, an increase of $10. On August 21st, the opening quote for 20GP was $1560, a decrease of $120 compared to the previous week, and the opening quote for 40GP was $2600, a decrease of $200 [8]. - For MSC in mid - to late August, the total quote for 20GP was $1820, a decrease of $180 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3040, a decrease of $300 [8]. - For CMA CGM in early August, the total quote for 20GP was $1835, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3245, a decrease of $200 [8]. - For Hapag - Lloyd in the past three weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $1735, a decrease of $100/200 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2835, a decrease of $410/300 [8]. - For Evergreen in early August, the total quote for 20GP was $2355, a decrease of $50 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3560, a decrease of $100. In mid - to late August, the total quote for 20GP was $2055, a decrease of $300 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3160, a decrease of $400 [8][9]. Global Freight Rate Index | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Line (points) | 2297.86 | 2316.56 | - 18.7 | - 0.81% | | SCFIS: US West Line (points) | 1130.12 | 1284.01 | - 153.89 | - 11.99% | | SCFI: European Line (USD/TEU) | 2051 | 2090 | - 39 | - 1.87% | | SCFI: US West Line (USD/FEU) | 2021 | 2067 | - 46 | - 2.23% | | XSI: European Line (USD/FEU) | 3395 | 3362 | 33 | 0.98% | | XSI: US West Line (USD/FEU) | 2135 | 2166 | - 31 | - 1.4% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index (USD/FEU) | 2229 | 2302 | - 73 | - 3.17% | [9] Global Major Port Waiting Times | Port | August 4, 2025 | August 3, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 0.218 | 0.241 | - 0.023 | 0.599 | | Shanghai Port | 1.384 | 1.463 | - 0.079 | 1.578 | | Yantian Port | 0.564 | 0.895 | - 0.331 | 0.741 | | Singapore Port | 0.826 | 0.393 | 0.433 | 0.555 | | Jakarta Port | 0.841 | 1.157 | - 0.316 | 0.775 | | Long Beach Port | 1.721 | 1.818 | - 0.097 | 2.180 | | Savannah Port | 1.802 | 1.144 | 0.658 | 0.718 | [16] Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | Ship Type | August 4, 2025 | August 3, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.853 | 15.803 | 0.05 | 15.899 | | 3000+ | 14.787 | 14.788 | - 0.001 | 15.029 | | 1000+ | 13.323 | 13.28 | 0.043 | 13.441 | | Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 12 | 13 | - 1 | 11 | [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On August 1, 2025, the prices of various monthly contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures showed a slight fluctuation. Except for the relatively stable EC2508 contract entering the delivery month, the prices of other monthly contracts declined slightly. The overall futures price trend was still affected by the spot cabin quotes on the European route and trended slightly downward. The bearish sentiment in the commodity market also had a certain negative impact on the EC. For the future, it is expected that the EC is more likely to return to a volatile state, and some contracts may slightly rebound after reaching short - term lows. In the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still slightly decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For those with positions in cabin management but with full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at the entry range of 1700 - 1800 [1]. - For those in cost management who expect to book cabins according to order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at the entry range of 1300 - 1400 to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance [1]. Market Information 利多解读 - The Israeli side responded to Hamas' counter - proposal on Tuesday evening, but it is expected that Hamas will not accept the terms. The Doha talks have been in a stagnant state since Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recalled the negotiation team earlier this month [2]. 利空解读 - ONE lowered the spot cabin quotes on the European route in mid - August. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different trends for different contracts [3]. EC Price and Spread - On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of different EC contracts had different daily and weekly changes. For example, the EC2508 contract had a closing price of 2126.5, a daily increase of 0.23%, and a weekly decrease of 3.89%. The spreads between different contracts also changed accordingly [5]. Shipping Quotes - On August 14, for the Maersk shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP increased by $5 to $1735, and for 40GP it increased by $10 to $2910. For the ONE shipping schedule, the total quote for 20GP decreased by $130 to $2194, and for 40GP it decreased by $200 to $2943 [7]. - The latest values of global freight rate indices showed different changes. For example, the SCFIS European route index was 2316.56, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous value; the SCFI European route was $2090 per TEU, an increase of 0.53% [8]. Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at major global ports on July 31, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.859 days to 0.880 days compared to July 30, 2025 [13]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On July 31, 2025, the speeds of different types of container ships showed different changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained unchanged at 9 compared to the previous day [23].

Summary of Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The oil transportation market has shown a lackluster performance over the past three years, but the average VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) earnings have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, currently averaging around $44,000, although with significant volatility [2][20] - OPEC's decision to maintain production increases and negotiations regarding the Iran nuclear deal are favorable for the VLCC market, while U.S. tariffs primarily impact large container shipping companies [2][4] - The container shipping sector has seen stable rates in the Southeast Asian market post U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with significant year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [2][6] - LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) transportation is expected to benefit from the launch of two to three self-operated LNG vessels in 2025, while the roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) business is gaining a competitive edge through the introduction of new vessels [2][7] Key Points and Arguments - The oil tanker market is expected to experience reduced volatility in 2025, with strong resilience in median pricing. Factors such as OPEC's production increases and unexpected demand from the Middle East are beneficial for VLCC supply and demand dynamics [2][8] - The company has paused its U.S. oil loading operations for nearly a month, but the impact on long-haul operations is limited due to optimization of customer and cargo structures [4][5] - The bulk shipping sector is projected to perform relatively weakly in 2025, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) showing a year-on-year decline, necessitating close monitoring of market dynamics for potential growth opportunities [4][9] - The company anticipates that the container shipping business will remain a significant contributor in 2025, with a notable increase in Q1 performance despite no significant changes in overall supply chain routes [6][2] - The roll-on/roll-off business is gradually replacing older vessels with new ones, which will help meet IMO carbon emission regulations and provide cost advantages [7][2] Additional Important Insights - The oil transportation market's performance has been weaker than expected due to factors such as slower-than-anticipated retirement of older vessels and the emergence of non-compliant fleets, which hinder market efficiency [11][20] - Saudi Arabia increased oil production by 400,000 barrels in May 2025, but this increase may not be sustained, with market speculation about further production increases pending official announcements [12][4] - The anticipated rise in freight rates from late May to June 2025 may be tempered by seasonal factors such as refinery maintenance [13][4] - U.S. sanctions on Chinese ports and companies have reduced direct Iranian oil shipments to China, leading to increased transshipment operations through Malaysia [14][4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains optimistic, with current average earnings exceeding pre-pandemic levels despite significant fluctuations [20][2]