集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/9/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导致 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1109.7 | -5.13 | 330.5 | 43546 | | 49609 | 2092 | | | EC2512 | | 1672.0 | -0.11 | -231.8 | 16859 | | 20437 | 678 | | | EC2602 | | 1578.8 | 0.43 | -138.6 | 3152 | | 7105 | 386 | | | EC2604 | | 1285.0 | 0.10 | 155.2 | 1492 | | 8334 | 101 | | | EC2606 | | 1468.7 | -0.20 | -28.5 | | 121 | 924 | -33 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 目标 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak and volatile pattern of the container shipping market continues, and shipping companies are gradually announcing blank sailings for the Golden Week [2]. - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued the weak and volatile trend. The prices of EC contracts showed mixed changes. The EC2510 contract is likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those with purchased shipping space but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to lock in profits [2]. - For shipping companies with increased blank sailing efforts or approaching the peak season, to prevent rising freight rates and increased transportation costs, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1150 - 1250 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradictions - The futures prices of each contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued the weak and volatile trend. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed changes. The long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 780 lots to 27,222 lots, the short positions decreased by 1300 lots to 30,668 lots, and the trading volume increased by 1140 lots to 29,546 lots (bilateral) [2]. - CMA CGM has continuously lowered the European line quotes for September, and the futures price weakened and fluctuated as expected following the decline of the spot cabin quotes on the European line. However, there are still uncertainties, including the uncertainty of US tariffs and the gradually announced blank sailing plans of major shipping companies for the Golden Week, which support the futures price from the supply side [2]. Bullish Interpretations - On August 29th local time, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. These additional tariff measures can remain in effect until October 14th to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court [3]. - On September 1st local time, due to the expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week holiday, MSC plans to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from Week 39 to Week 41, canceling a total of four voyages [3]. Bearish Interpretations - MSK's new weekly cabin opening quotes continued to decline, with the decline basically remaining the same [4]. - CMA CGM's spot cabin quotes on the European line in early September continued to decline [4]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 5, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 472.90 points, with a daily increase of 22.30 points and a weekly decrease of 232.30 points; the basis of EC2512 was 97.60 points, with a daily increase of 25.20 points and a weekly decrease of 321.60 points; and so on for other contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1300.7 points, with a daily decline of 1.69% and a weekly increase of 1.22%; the closing price of EC2512 was 1676.0 points, with a daily decline of 1.48% and a weekly increase of 6.68%; and so on for other contracts. Also shows the price differences between different contracts [5]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 15, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1092, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1827, an increase of $11. On September 18, the total quote for 20GP was $1040, an increase of $5, and the total quote for 40GP was $1740, an increase of $10 [7]. - For CMA CGM's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the next two weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $1210, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2020, a decrease of $200 [7]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS for the European route was 1773.6 points, a decrease of 216.6 points or 10.88% compared to the previous value; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.9 points, a decrease of 27.48 points or 2.64% [7]. - The SCFI for the European route was $1481 per TEU, a decrease of $187 or 11.21%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923 per FEU, an increase of $279 or 16.97% [7]. - The XSI for the European line was $2421 per FEU, a decrease of $31 or 1.26%; the XSI for the US - West line was $2034 per FEU, an increase of $96 or 5.0% [7]. - The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1997 per FEU, an increase of $16 or 0.81% [7]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 4, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.360 days, a decrease of 0.098 days compared to the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.420 days, a decrease of 0.378 days; and so on for other ports [14]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 4, 2025, the average speed of container ships over 8000 TEU was 15.769 knots, a decrease of 0.055 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of container ships over 3000 TEU was 14.765 knots, an increase of 0.013 knots; the average speed of container ships over 1000 TEU was 13.323 knots, an increase of 0.183 knots [22]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 15, the same as the previous day [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The prices of all monthly contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures opened lower and fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts declined. The futures prices dropped as expected following the decline in the spot cabin quotes on the European line, especially Maersk's new weekly cabin opening quotes. For the future, it is more likely that EC will continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with available cabin space but full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. The recommended entry range for selling EC2510 is 1350 - 1450 [1]. - For those hoping to book cabins based on order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures to lock in booking costs. The recommended entry range for buying EC2510 is 1150 - 1250 [1]. Market Information - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. MSC plans to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from the 39th to the 41st week, canceling a total of four voyages. Maersk increased the quotes for some newly added cabins in early September [2]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: MSK's new weekly cabin opening quotes continued to decline, and the quotes of MSC and Hapag - Lloyd for spot cabins on the European line in early September continued to fall [3]. Data Analysis - **EC Basis and Price Spread**: The basis, daily and weekly changes of different EC contracts on September 4, 2025, are provided, along with the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and price spreads between different contracts [4]. - **Shipping Quotes**: Maersk's shipping quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam for different container types and departure dates in September are given, showing some increases and decreases. MSC's quotes for the next two weeks decreased, and Hapag - Lloyd's average quotes for the past three weeks also declined [6]. - **Global Freight Index**: The latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of multiple global freight indexes, including SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX, are presented [7]. - **Port Waiting Time**: The waiting times at major global ports on September 3, 2025, compared with the previous day and the same period last year, are provided, including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Yantian, Singapore, Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah ports [14]. - **Ship Speed and Waiting Vessels**: The average speeds of different types of container ships on September 3, 2025, compared with the previous day and the same period last year, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage are given [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 22, 2025, the prices of all monthly contracts of the container shipping index (European routes) futures showed a slightly downward - trending oscillation. Except for EC2508, the prices of all EC monthly contracts declined. Based on the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutions on the exchange, the long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 119 lots to 28,388 lots, the short positions increased by 129 lots to 31,701 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 11,209 lots to 32,130 lots (bilateral). The overall oscillation and slight decline in futures prices were affected by the spot container quotes on European routes. The opening quotes of major shipping companies (CMA CGM, Hapag - Lloyd) for European routes in early September continued to decrease, and the average price of large containers was below $2300. Considering the current spot container quotes on European routes and the SCFI situation, it is more likely that EC will continue to oscillate and decline or return to an oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound after some contracts fall to low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained container positions but have full capacity or poor booking volumes, and are worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's container positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and a suggested entry range of 1450 - 1550 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or are about to enter the peak market season, and hope to book containers according to order situations (short spot exposure), to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the container - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and a suggested entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. 3.2 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Maersk slightly increased its quotes in early September [2]. - **Negative Factors**: CMA CGM and Hapag - Lloyd lowered their quotes for European routes in early September [3]. 3.3 EC Basis and Price Data - **Basis**: On August 22, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 52.47 points, with a daily decrease of 2.70 points and a weekly decrease of 43.90 points; the basis of EC2510 was 871.17 points, with a daily increase of 16.00 points and a weekly increase of 64.60 points; the basis of EC2512 was 518.97 points, with a daily increase of 60.20 points and a weekly increase of 101.80 points; the basis of EC2602 was 715.17 points, with a daily increase of 48.00 points and a weekly increase of 65.10 points; the basis of EC2604 was 915.67 points, with a daily increase of 25.00 points and a weekly increase of 67.50 points; the basis of EC2606 was 750.17 points, with a daily increase of 40.10 points and a weekly increase of 2.19 points [3]. - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2127.7 points, with a daily increase of 0.13% and a weekly increase of 2.11%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1309.0 points, with a daily decrease of 1.21% and a weekly decrease of 4.70%; the closing price of EC2512 was 1661.2 points, with a daily decrease of 3.50% and a weekly decrease of 5.77%; the closing price of EC2602 was 1465.0 points, with a daily decrease of 3.17% and a weekly decrease of 4.25%; the closing price of EC2604 was 1264.5 points, with a daily decrease of 3.07% and a weekly decrease of 5.07%; the closing price of EC2606 was 1430.0 points, with a daily decrease of 2.73% and a weekly decrease of 3.87%. There were also corresponding price differences and their daily and weekly changes between different contracts [4]. 3.4 Spot Container Quotes - On September 4, Maersk's total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $1305, an increase of $15 compared to the previous value; the total quote for 40GP was $2190, an increase of $30 compared to the previous value. In early September, CMA CGM's total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $1410, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous value; the total quote for 40GP was $2420, a decrease of $200 compared to the previous value. In early September, Hapag - Lloyd's total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $1385, a decrease of $150 compared to the previous value; the total quote for 40GP was $2135, a decrease of $300 compared to the previous value [6]. 3.5 Global Freight Rate Index - On August 22, 2025, SCFIS for European routes was 2180.17 points, a decrease of 55.31 points (2.47%) compared to the previous value; SCFIS for US - West routes was 1106.29 points, an increase of 24.15 points (2.23%) compared to the previous value; SCFI for European routes was $1668 per TEU, a decrease of $152 (8.35%) compared to the previous value; SCFI for US - West routes was $1644 per FEU, a decrease of $115 (6.54%) compared to the previous value; XSI for European routes was $2989 per FEU, a decrease of $31 (1.03%) compared to the previous value; XSI for US - West routes was $1826 per FEU, a decrease of $7 (0.4%) compared to the previous value; the FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1965 per FEU, an increase of $1 (0.05%) compared to the previous value [7]. 3.6 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On August 21, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.488 days, a decrease of 0.120 days compared to the previous day and 0.029 days less than the same period last year; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.592 days, a decrease of 0.047 days compared to the previous day and 0.438 days more than the same period last year; the waiting time at Yantian Port was 1.820 days, an increase of 0.659 days compared to the previous day and 1.535 days more than the same period last year; the waiting time at Singapore Port was 0.500 days, a decrease of 1.127 days compared to the previous day and 0.026 days less than the same period last year; the waiting time at Jakarta Port was 1.502 days, a decrease of 0.125 days compared to the previous day and 0.717 days more than the same period last year; the waiting time at Long Beach Port was 2.051 days, a decrease of 0.597 days compared to the previous day and 0.005 days more than the same period last year; the waiting time at Savannah Port was 1.190 days, a decrease of 0.043 days compared to the previous day and 0.935 days less than the same period last year [12]. 3.7 Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Numbers in Suez Canal - On August 21, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.703 knots, a decrease of 0.061 knots compared to the previous day and 0.199 knots less than the same period last year; the average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.909 knots, an increase of 0.039 knots compared to the previous day and 0.400 knots less than the same period last year; the average speed of 1000 + container ships was 13.346 knots, an increase of 0.028 knots compared to the previous day and 0.101 knots less than the same period last year. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 8, a decrease of 4 compared to the previous day and 6 more than the same period last year [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) continued to fluctuate. As of the close, except for a slight decline in the EC2604 contract, the prices of the remaining contracts slightly rebounded. Some contracts have reached short - term lows, some short - sellers took profits and left the market, and the trading sentiment was relatively calm. Affected by geopolitical risks, the futures prices continued a slight upward trend. The decline of the SCFI European Line has widened, and it is expected that the EC will generally continue to fluctuate or return to a fluctuating trend. In the medium term, without sudden events, based on fundamental considerations, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly downward [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For position management, if one has obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booking volume is poor, and is worried about the decline in freight rates, with a long spot position, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1450 - 1550 to lock in profits [1]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the intensity of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they want to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot position, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1200 - 1300 to determine the booking cost in advance [1]. EC Basis Daily Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 151.68 | 0.10 | - 12.80 | | EC2510 | 861.88 | - 14.10 | 62.40 | | EC2512 | 472.48 | - 39.70 | - 3.00 | | EC2602 | 705.38 | - 8.70 | 0.30 | | EC2604 | 903.48 | 3.00 | 21.00 | | EC2606 | 747.98 | 7.50 | - 59.38 | [4][6] EC Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2083.8 | 0.00% | 0.62% | | EC2510 | 1373.6 | 1.04% | - 4.35% | | EC2512 | 1763.0 | 2.30% | 0.17% | | EC2602 | 1530.1 | 0.57% | - 0.02% | | EC2604 | 1332.0 | - 0.69% | - 1.55% | | EC2606 | 1487.5 | - 0.50% | - 0.20% | [6] | Spread | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 - 2512 | 320.8 | - 39.8 | 9.8 | | EC2512 - 2604 | 431.0 | 42.7 | 21.2 | | EC2604 - 2508 | - 751.8 | - 2.9 | - 22.1 | | EC2508 - 2510 | 710.2 | - 39.8 | 75.2 | | EC2510 - 2512 | - 389.4 | - 25.6 | - 65.4 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 232.9 | 31 | - 9.2 | [6] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 28, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1405, an increase of $15 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2370, an increase of $30 compared to the previous period [8]. - In mid - to late August, for some sailings of ONE's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the opening quote for 20GP was $1634, a decrease of $130 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2543, a decrease of $200 compared to the previous period [8]. Global Freight Rate Index | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Points) | 2235.48 | 2297.86 | - 62.38 | - 2.71% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Points) | 1082.14 | 1130.12 | - 47.98 | - 4.25% | | SCFI: European Route ($/TEU) | 1820 | 1961 | - 141 | - 7.19% | | SCFI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 1759 | 1823 | - 64 | - 3.51% | | XSI: European Line ($/FEU) | 3181 | 3202 | - 21 | - 0.66% | | XSI: US West Line ($/FEU) | 1913 | 1931 | - 18 | - 0.9% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 2135 | 2141 | - 6 | - 0.28% | [9] Global Major Port Waiting Times | Port | August 14, 2025 | August 13, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 0.538 | 0.486 | 0.052 | 0.437 | | Shanghai Port | 1.780 | 1.386 | 0.394 | 1.365 | | Yantian Port | 0.921 | 1.034 | - 0.113 | 0.869 | | Singapore Port | 1.158 | 0.620 | 0.538 | 0.535 | | Jakarta Port | 1.684 | 1.533 | 0.151 | 2.645 | | Long Beach Port | 1.551 | 1.829 | - 0.278 | 1.562 | | Savannah Port | 1.606 | 1.267 | 0.339 | 1.365 | [16] Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports | Ship Type | August 14, 2025 | August 13, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000 + | 15.916 | 15.952 | - 0.036 | 15.988 | | 3000 + | 15.018 | 15.031 | - 0.013 | 15.106 | | 1000 + | 13.37 | 13.295 | 0.075 | 13.59 | | Ships waiting at Suez Canal ports | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) fluctuated slightly. By the close, except for the EC2512 and 2604 contracts which rebounded slightly, the prices of the other monthly contracts declined slightly. Looking at the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, for the EC2510 contract, the long positions increased by 43 lots to 27,706 lots, the short positions decreased by 174 lots to 33,222 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 26,940 lots to 31,894 lots (bilateral). The futures price fluctuated as expected, but some major shipping companies (CMA CGM) were still lowering the spot cabin quotes for the European Line, so the near - month contracts declined slightly. For the future, it is expected that the probability of EC returning to a fluctuating and slightly declining or fluctuating trend is relatively high; in the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly declining [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained cabin positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume, and are worried about the decline in freight rates, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and a recommended entry range of 1500 - 1600 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or are about to enter the peak season, and hope to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and a recommended entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. 3.2利多解读 (Positive Interpretation) - Maersk's Q2 2025 performance was strong, with revenue increasing by 2.8% year - on - year and EBIT reaching $845 million. Although it declined quarter - on - quarter, the overall performance was on par with the same period last year. The second - half guidance was raised, mainly due to the continuous strength of the terminal business, the increase in the shipping volume of the shipping segment, the enhanced profitability of the logistics and service business, and the continuous optimization of operations and strict cost control in each business segment. Given the stronger resilience of demand in non - North American markets, Maersk decided to raise its full - year 2025 financial guidance. The shipping volume increased by 4.2% year - on - year, mainly from Asian exports. Although the freight rate was still under pressure, it had rebounded within the quarter. The Gemini cooperation alliance was fully implemented in June, and the network reliability score exceeded the 90% target in the first month [2]. 3.3利空解读 (Negative Interpretation) - CMA CGM continued to lower the spot cabin quotes for the European Line in mid - August, and the new weekly spot cabin opening quotes of MSK for the European Line declined again [3]. 3.4 EC Basis, Price, and Spread - **EC Basis**: On August 7, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 225.16 points, with a daily decline of 1.40 points and a weekly increase of 30.20 points; the basis of EC2510 was 877.46 points, with a daily decline of 0.30 points and a weekly decline of 14.00 points; etc. [3][4]. - **EC Price and Spread**: The closing price of EC2508 was 2072.7 points, with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 2.30%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1420.4 points, with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly decrease of 0.33%; etc. The spread between EC2508 - 2512 was 309.5 points, with a daily decrease of 10.4 points and a weekly decrease of 119.8 points; etc. [4]. 3.5 Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 21, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1595, an increase of $10 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2670, an increase of $20 compared to the previous period. For some sailings of CMA CGM from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the first and middle of August, the total quote for 20GP was $1810, a decrease of $75 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3220, a decrease of $125 compared to the previous period. In the second half of August, for some sailings of CMA CGM from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1860, a decrease of $25 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3320, a decrease of $25 compared to the previous period [6]. 3.6 Global Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS**: The European route was at 2297.86 points, a decrease of 18.7 points or 0.81% compared to the previous value; the US - West route was at 1130.12 points, a decrease of 153.89 points or 11.99% compared to the previous value [7]. - **SCFI**: The European route was at $2051/TEU, a decrease of $39 or 1.87% compared to the previous value; the US - West route was at $2021/FEU, a decrease of $46 or 2.23% compared to the previous value [7]. - **XSI**: The European Line was at $3386/FEU, a decrease of $3 or 0.09% compared to the previous value; the US - West Line was at $2018/FEU, a decrease of $90 or 4.3% compared to the previous value [7]. - **FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index**: It was at $2229/FEU, a decrease of $73 or 3.17% compared to the previous value [7]. 3.7 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On August 6, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.336 days, a decrease of 0.095 days compared to August 5; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.721 days, a decrease of 0.169 days; etc. [14]. 3.8 Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On August 6, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.987 knots, an increase of 0.193 knots compared to August 5; the average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.792 knots, a decrease of 0.024 knots; etc. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 15, an increase of 8 compared to August 5 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened lower and fluctuated. By the close, except for a slight decline in the EC2508 contract, the prices of other monthly contracts rebounded slightly. The collective and continuous reduction of the spot cabin quotes for the European Line around mid - August by some mainstream shipping companies led to the lower opening of the futures prices. Then, some contracts rebounded as expected due to reaching short - term lows and being affected by the sentiment in the commodity market. For the future, the new weekly opening quotes of MSK have significantly declined again, and it is more likely that the EC will return to a fluctuating and slightly downward trend. In the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly downward [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestion - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about a decline in freight rates, one can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling suggestion and an entry range of 1500 - 1600 [1]. - For cost management, when shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one hopes to book cabins according to order situations, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying suggestion and an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. Market News - According to Israeli media on August 4th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "tends to expand the Israeli military's military operations in the Gaza Strip and control the entire Gaza Strip", and the Israeli cabinet will hold a decision - making meeting on this on August 5th [2]. - Some mainstream shipping companies reduced the spot cabin quotes for the European Line around mid - August today, and MSK's new weekly quotes for the European Line spot cabins declined again [3]. EC Basis Daily Changes | Contract | Basis (points) | Daily Change (points) | Weekly Change (points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 209.06 | 33.50 | 3.50 | | EC2510 | 884.86 | 8.80 | 28.30 | | EC2512 | 607.36 | - 13.30 | 25.80 | | EC2602 | 805.46 | - 22.20 | 10.20 | | EC2604 | 966.86 | - 15.90 | 20.30 | [4] EC Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price (points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread Contract | Closing Price (points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2088.8 | - 1.58% | - 1.05% | EC2508 - 2512 | 398.3 | - 46.8 | 22.3 | | EC2510 | 1413.0 | - 0.62% | - 3.22% | EC2512 - 2604 | 359.5 | - 2.6 | 1.0 | | EC2512 | 1690.5 | 0.79% | - 2.56% | EC2604 - 2508 | - 757.8 | 49.4 | 93.1 | | EC2602 | 1492.4 | 1.51% | - 1.90% | EC2508 - 2510 | 675.8 | - 46.8 | 24.8 | | EC2604 | 1331.0 | 1.21% | - 2.85% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 277.5 | - 22.1 | - 2.5 | | EC2606 | 1471.6 | 1.27% | - 2.21% | EC2512 - 2602 | 198.1 | - 8.9 | - 3.3 | [6] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes (CY - CY, Shanghai - Rotterdam) - For Maersk in mid - to late August, the total quote for 20GP on August 14th was $1760, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2960, an increase of $10. On August 21st, the opening quote for 20GP was $1560, a decrease of $120 compared to the previous week, and the opening quote for 40GP was $2600, a decrease of $200 [8]. - For MSC in mid - to late August, the total quote for 20GP was $1820, a decrease of $180 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3040, a decrease of $300 [8]. - For CMA CGM in early August, the total quote for 20GP was $1835, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3245, a decrease of $200 [8]. - For Hapag - Lloyd in the past three weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $1735, a decrease of $100/200 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2835, a decrease of $410/300 [8]. - For Evergreen in early August, the total quote for 20GP was $2355, a decrease of $50 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3560, a decrease of $100. In mid - to late August, the total quote for 20GP was $2055, a decrease of $300 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3160, a decrease of $400 [8][9]. Global Freight Rate Index | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Line (points) | 2297.86 | 2316.56 | - 18.7 | - 0.81% | | SCFIS: US West Line (points) | 1130.12 | 1284.01 | - 153.89 | - 11.99% | | SCFI: European Line (USD/TEU) | 2051 | 2090 | - 39 | - 1.87% | | SCFI: US West Line (USD/FEU) | 2021 | 2067 | - 46 | - 2.23% | | XSI: European Line (USD/FEU) | 3395 | 3362 | 33 | 0.98% | | XSI: US West Line (USD/FEU) | 2135 | 2166 | - 31 | - 1.4% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index (USD/FEU) | 2229 | 2302 | - 73 | - 3.17% | [9] Global Major Port Waiting Times | Port | August 4, 2025 | August 3, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 0.218 | 0.241 | - 0.023 | 0.599 | | Shanghai Port | 1.384 | 1.463 | - 0.079 | 1.578 | | Yantian Port | 0.564 | 0.895 | - 0.331 | 0.741 | | Singapore Port | 0.826 | 0.393 | 0.433 | 0.555 | | Jakarta Port | 0.841 | 1.157 | - 0.316 | 0.775 | | Long Beach Port | 1.721 | 1.818 | - 0.097 | 2.180 | | Savannah Port | 1.802 | 1.144 | 0.658 | 0.718 | [16] Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | Ship Type | August 4, 2025 | August 3, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.853 | 15.803 | 0.05 | 15.899 | | 3000+ | 14.787 | 14.788 | - 0.001 | 15.029 | | 1000+ | 13.323 | 13.28 | 0.043 | 13.441 | | Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 12 | 13 | - 1 | 11 | [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On August 1, 2025, the prices of various monthly contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures showed a slight fluctuation. Except for the relatively stable EC2508 contract entering the delivery month, the prices of other monthly contracts declined slightly. The overall futures price trend was still affected by the spot cabin quotes on the European route and trended slightly downward. The bearish sentiment in the commodity market also had a certain negative impact on the EC. For the future, it is expected that the EC is more likely to return to a volatile state, and some contracts may slightly rebound after reaching short - term lows. In the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still slightly decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For those with positions in cabin management but with full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at the entry range of 1700 - 1800 [1]. - For those in cost management who expect to book cabins according to order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at the entry range of 1300 - 1400 to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance [1]. Market Information 利多解读 - The Israeli side responded to Hamas' counter - proposal on Tuesday evening, but it is expected that Hamas will not accept the terms. The Doha talks have been in a stagnant state since Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recalled the negotiation team earlier this month [2]. 利空解读 - ONE lowered the spot cabin quotes on the European route in mid - August. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different trends for different contracts [3]. EC Price and Spread - On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of different EC contracts had different daily and weekly changes. For example, the EC2508 contract had a closing price of 2126.5, a daily increase of 0.23%, and a weekly decrease of 3.89%. The spreads between different contracts also changed accordingly [5]. Shipping Quotes - On August 14, for the Maersk shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP increased by $5 to $1735, and for 40GP it increased by $10 to $2910. For the ONE shipping schedule, the total quote for 20GP decreased by $130 to $2194, and for 40GP it decreased by $200 to $2943 [7]. - The latest values of global freight rate indices showed different changes. For example, the SCFIS European route index was 2316.56, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous value; the SCFI European route was $2090 per TEU, an increase of 0.53% [8]. Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at major global ports on July 31, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.859 days to 0.880 days compared to July 30, 2025 [13]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On July 31, 2025, the speeds of different types of container ships showed different changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained unchanged at 9 compared to the previous day [23].

Summary of Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The oil transportation market has shown a lackluster performance over the past three years, but the average VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) earnings have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, currently averaging around $44,000, although with significant volatility [2][20] - OPEC's decision to maintain production increases and negotiations regarding the Iran nuclear deal are favorable for the VLCC market, while U.S. tariffs primarily impact large container shipping companies [2][4] - The container shipping sector has seen stable rates in the Southeast Asian market post U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with significant year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [2][6] - LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) transportation is expected to benefit from the launch of two to three self-operated LNG vessels in 2025, while the roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) business is gaining a competitive edge through the introduction of new vessels [2][7] Key Points and Arguments - The oil tanker market is expected to experience reduced volatility in 2025, with strong resilience in median pricing. Factors such as OPEC's production increases and unexpected demand from the Middle East are beneficial for VLCC supply and demand dynamics [2][8] - The company has paused its U.S. oil loading operations for nearly a month, but the impact on long-haul operations is limited due to optimization of customer and cargo structures [4][5] - The bulk shipping sector is projected to perform relatively weakly in 2025, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) showing a year-on-year decline, necessitating close monitoring of market dynamics for potential growth opportunities [4][9] - The company anticipates that the container shipping business will remain a significant contributor in 2025, with a notable increase in Q1 performance despite no significant changes in overall supply chain routes [6][2] - The roll-on/roll-off business is gradually replacing older vessels with new ones, which will help meet IMO carbon emission regulations and provide cost advantages [7][2] Additional Important Insights - The oil transportation market's performance has been weaker than expected due to factors such as slower-than-anticipated retirement of older vessels and the emergence of non-compliant fleets, which hinder market efficiency [11][20] - Saudi Arabia increased oil production by 400,000 barrels in May 2025, but this increase may not be sustained, with market speculation about further production increases pending official announcements [12][4] - The anticipated rise in freight rates from late May to June 2025 may be tempered by seasonal factors such as refinery maintenance [13][4] - U.S. sanctions on Chinese ports and companies have reduced direct Iranian oil shipments to China, leading to increased transshipment operations through Malaysia [14][4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains optimistic, with current average earnings exceeding pre-pandemic levels despite significant fluctuations [20][2]