| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4083 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 2.88 | | 深证综指 | 2625 | 0.17 | 5.04 | 3.72 | 今日重点推荐 2026 年 01 月 09 日 港铁公司（0066.HK）深度：紧扣香港景气脉搏，"铁路+物 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 风格指数 (％) 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 大盘指数 -0.9 2.29 18.91 中盘指数 -0.27 8.37 31.3 小盘指数 0.98 8.57 27.85 涨幅居前 行业(％) 业"模式助推发展 ◼ 投资分析意见：我们预测港铁公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 162.03/201.66/101.38 亿元， 2025 至 2027 年对应 PE 分别为 12x/9x/19x，因 2025、2026 年业绩保持高增，公司当前采用渐进式分 红政策，2024 年每股派息 1.31 元，以公司每股派息预计维持、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has reached an inflection point in its performance, with expectations for a synergy between oil and bulk shipping sectors [10]. - In Q3, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.18 billion yuan, up 34.8% year-on-year [2][4]. - The recovery in oil and bulk shipping markets aligns with operational expectations, while the Asian intra-regional shipping market shows resilience despite a downturn [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 19.31 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.30 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 alone, the company recorded operating revenue of 6.73 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.18 billion yuan, up 34.8% year-on-year [4]. Oil Shipping Sector - The oil shipping sector has shown a recovery, with Q3 VLCC rates for the Middle East to China route averaging $35,000 per day, a year-on-year increase of 28.1% [10]. - The company's oil tanker business generated revenue of 2.29 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, with net profit rising 54.8% to 600 million yuan [10]. Bulk Shipping Sector - The bulk shipping sector has also seen a recovery, with strong shipment volumes from overseas miners leading to an increase in the BDI index [10]. - The company's bulk shipping revenue in Q3 was 2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, although net profit decreased by 21.1% to 290 million yuan due to increased chartering of smaller vessels [10]. Container Shipping Sector - The container shipping market in Asia has experienced a downturn, but the company still reported Q3 revenue of 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with net profit rising 76.3% to 410 million yuan [10]. - Excluding the impact of fair value gains on stock holdings, the net profit was 240 million yuan, reflecting a 2.1% year-on-year increase [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a continued recovery in both oil and bulk shipping markets, with projected revenues of 5.55 billion, 7.35 billion, and 7.93 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10].

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 17.108 billion yuan, down 2.55% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.723 billion yuan, down 21.22% year-on-year [1] - The third quarter showed a slight recovery in net profit, achieving 853 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.37% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The oil transportation business saw a significant drop in gross profit, with a total of 1.79 billion yuan for the first three quarters, down 43.2% year-on-year [2] - The foreign trade oil transportation segment reported gross profits of 540 million yuan, 750 million yuan, and 500 million yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with year-on-year declines of 55.90%, 43.13%, and 18.64% [2] - The domestic oil transportation segment achieved gross profits of 330 million yuan, 330 million yuan, and 360 million yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with year-on-year declines of 9.30%, 3.28%, and 14.70% [2] Other Business Segments - The LNG transportation business maintained stability, with a net profit of 674 million yuan for the first three quarters, showing little change year-on-year [3] - The LPG transportation business reported a gross profit of 50 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 22.5% year-on-year [4] - The chemical transportation segment experienced a slight decline in gross profit, totaling 50 million yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 24.364 billion yuan, 25.010 billion yuan, and 25.559 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.82%, 2.65%, and 2.19% respectively [5] - Expected net profits for the same period are 4.794 billion yuan, 5.660 billion yuan, and 5.822 billion yuan, with growth rates of 18.76%, 18.06%, and 2.88% respectively [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.88 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.07 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.38, 13.03, and 12.66 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.37% in Q3, with expectations for improved financial performance due to rising freight rates in September [3] - The report emphasizes the company's proactive expansion into Western markets for foreign trade oil transportation [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 171.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.55%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 54.66 billion yuan, also down by 2.55% year-on-year [3] - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 was 27.23 billion yuan, down 21.22% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at 8.53 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.37% year-on-year [3] - **Gross Profit**: The foreign trade oil transportation business reported a gross profit of 17.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a decline of 43.2% year-on-year [3] - **LNG and LPG Transportation**: The LNG transportation business maintained stable performance with a net profit of 6.74 billion yuan, while the LPG transportation business saw a significant gross profit increase of 22.5% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 243.64 billion yuan, 250.10 billion yuan, and 255.59 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.82%, 2.65%, and 2.19% [3] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 47.94 billion yuan, 56.60 billion yuan, and 58.22 billion yuan, with growth rates of 18.76%, 18.06%, and 2.88% respectively [3] - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating based on the projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.88 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.07 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]

Summary of China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船) - **Industry**: Shipping and Logistics Key Points Industry Performance - The container shipping business has performed exceptionally well, offsetting pressures in the oil shipping market, showcasing stable operational capabilities through diversification [2][3] - The global oil shipping market is experiencing improvements due to OPEC's production cuts and geopolitical factors, with potential demand growth expected in the first half of 2025 [2][7] - OPEC's unexpected production increase is anticipated to significantly boost global oil trade volumes, benefiting the oil shipping industry [8][9] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 2.12 billion yuan, with the oil shipping segment performing strongly and container shipping growing by 15% year-on-year [5][21] - Despite a 15% year-on-year decline in net profit, the second quarter showed a recovery with a profit of 1.26 billion yuan, marking a 40% increase from the first quarter [21] Container Shipping Developments - The company is focusing on small-scale operations primarily in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, with recent expansions into Mexican routes [4] - The company plans to independently operate LNG vessels in the near future, indicating a strategy of diversification in container shipping [4] Oil Shipping Market Insights - The oil shipping market has seen a restructuring of trade patterns, with average shipping distances increasing by approximately 7% since the second half of 2022 [6] - Factors contributing to the decline in oil shipping market conditions in the second half of 2024 include geopolitical tensions and reduced demand from China [7] - The anticipated increase in oil production from South America in the second half of 2025 is expected to enhance global oil shipping demand [11] Dry Bulk Shipping Outlook - The Simandou project is set to commence production in November 2025, expected to significantly increase global iron ore shipping volumes [18] - The dry bulk market has faced challenges, with average annual growth rates around 3%, but potential exists for future demand growth [15][17] Long-term Industry Trends - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing trends in oil and iron ore production increases, with a stable outlook for the next two years [14][22] - The aging fleet and limited new ship orders are expected to create supply rigidity, supporting market conditions for the company [14] Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of 40% [22] Additional Insights - The company’s diversified operations across multiple segments have allowed it to maintain stable performance despite market fluctuations [3][22] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and changes in trade routes are influencing shipping dynamics, particularly in oil and dry bulk sectors [10][12][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - In Q2, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.2% [2][4] - The foreign trade oil transportation sector is showing signs of improvement, while external chartering has increased costs; domestic trade has been affected by a decrease in business volume but maintains stable profitability; LNG transportation continues to show growth due to fleet expansion [2][10] - Looking ahead, LNG transportation benefits from stable project-based revenue and fleet expansion, solidifying baseline profits; the oil transportation sector is expected to see a peak season in Q4 due to increased compliance oil imports from India and ongoing OPEC production increases [2][10] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 11.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, down 29.2% year-on-year [4] - In Q2, the company’s operating revenue was 5.89 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.16 billion yuan, reflecting a significant quarter-on-quarter recovery [4] Business Segment Performance - Foreign trade oil transportation revenue was 3.73 billion yuan in Q2, down 5.4% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 750 million yuan, a decrease of 44.7% year-on-year [10] - Domestic trade oil transportation revenue was 1.37 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, but maintained a gross profit margin of 24.0% [10] - LNG transportation revenue reached 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.5%, with a gross profit margin of 49.9% [10] Future Outlook - The LNG transportation sector is expected to continue solidifying profits due to stable project revenues and fleet expansion [10] - The oil transportation sector is anticipated to benefit from seasonal demand in Q4, with potential for price increases [10] - The report suggests that the oil tanker sector is currently undervalued and may experience a rebound [2][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that China Merchants Energy (中远海能) experienced a significant drop in profits for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of approximately RMB 11.573 billion, a year-on-year decrease of about 2.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to equity holders was approximately RMB 1.894 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of about 29.0%, with earnings per share at 39.71 cents [1] - The foreign trade oil tanker fleet generated transportation revenue of RMB 7.29 billion, down 5.5% year-on-year, while the transportation gross profit was RMB 1.3 billion, a decrease of 48.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The gross profit margin for the foreign trade oil transportation segment was reported at 17.9%, which is a decrease of 15.2 percentage points year-on-year, although it showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7 percentage points in Q2 [1] - The domestic trade oil tanker fleet achieved transportation revenue of RMB 2.74 billion, also down 5.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of RMB 670 million, reflecting a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year [1] - Zhejiang Securities noted that the foreign trade oil transportation segment's gross profit was RMB 1.289 billion, down 49.1% year-on-year, primarily due to last year's high base from the Red Sea crisis and increased capacity from new deliveries [2]

Summary of Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The oil transportation market has shown a lackluster performance over the past three years, but the average VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) earnings have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, currently averaging around $44,000, although with significant volatility [2][20] - OPEC's decision to maintain production increases and negotiations regarding the Iran nuclear deal are favorable for the VLCC market, while U.S. tariffs primarily impact large container shipping companies [2][4] - The container shipping sector has seen stable rates in the Southeast Asian market post U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with significant year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [2][6] - LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) transportation is expected to benefit from the launch of two to three self-operated LNG vessels in 2025, while the roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) business is gaining a competitive edge through the introduction of new vessels [2][7] Key Points and Arguments - The oil tanker market is expected to experience reduced volatility in 2025, with strong resilience in median pricing. Factors such as OPEC's production increases and unexpected demand from the Middle East are beneficial for VLCC supply and demand dynamics [2][8] - The company has paused its U.S. oil loading operations for nearly a month, but the impact on long-haul operations is limited due to optimization of customer and cargo structures [4][5] - The bulk shipping sector is projected to perform relatively weakly in 2025, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) showing a year-on-year decline, necessitating close monitoring of market dynamics for potential growth opportunities [4][9] - The company anticipates that the container shipping business will remain a significant contributor in 2025, with a notable increase in Q1 performance despite no significant changes in overall supply chain routes [6][2] - The roll-on/roll-off business is gradually replacing older vessels with new ones, which will help meet IMO carbon emission regulations and provide cost advantages [7][2] Additional Important Insights - The oil transportation market's performance has been weaker than expected due to factors such as slower-than-anticipated retirement of older vessels and the emergence of non-compliant fleets, which hinder market efficiency [11][20] - Saudi Arabia increased oil production by 400,000 barrels in May 2025, but this increase may not be sustained, with market speculation about further production increases pending official announcements [12][4] - The anticipated rise in freight rates from late May to June 2025 may be tempered by seasonal factors such as refinery maintenance [13][4] - U.S. sanctions on Chinese ports and companies have reduced direct Iranian oil shipments to China, leading to increased transshipment operations through Malaysia [14][4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains optimistic, with current average earnings exceeding pre-pandemic levels despite significant fluctuations [20][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (600026) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - The oil transportation market is anticipated to improve in the medium term, with attention to variables such as sanctions and production increases [7] Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financial Results**: - Revenue: 23.2 billion CNY, up 2% year-on-year - Net Profit: 4.04 billion CNY, up 19.4% year-on-year - Non-recurring Net Profit: 3.98 billion CNY, down 3.8% year-on-year - Q4 Revenue: 6.1 billion CNY, down 1.6% year-on-year - Q4 Net Profit: 620 million CNY, returning to profit [1][2] - **Business Segment Performance**: - Foreign trade oil transportation: Gross profit of 3.59 billion CNY, down 13.6% - Domestic trade oil transportation: Gross profit of 1.48 billion CNY, down 0.9%, with a gross margin of 25% - LNG business: Contributed a net profit of 810 million CNY, up 2.7% - LPG and chemical business: Gross profit of 52 million CNY and 53 million CNY, down 8.7% and up 47.9% respectively [1][2] Future Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2025E: 26.03 billion CNY, growth of 12% - 2026E: 27.77 billion CNY, growth of 6.7% - 2027E: 29.67 billion CNY, growth of 6.8% [3] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2025E: 5.04 billion CNY, growth of 24.9% - 2026E: 6.03 billion CNY, growth of 19.7% - 2027E: 6.89 billion CNY, growth of 14.2% [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025E: 1.06 CNY - 2026E: 1.26 CNY - 2027E: 1.44 CNY [3] Valuation - The target price for the stock is set at 13.8 CNY, with a current price of 11.27 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 22% [3][7]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. The report is optimistic about the improvement in the oil transportation supply-demand structure, which is expected to enhance the company's performance [1][4]. - The company is recognized as a global leader in oil transportation and a key player in China's LNG transportation sector, with significant competitive advantages in the oil and gas import transportation market [4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 23.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with a gross profit of 6.33 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 27.2% [1]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 17.4%, with a net profit of 4.04 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was 3.98 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [1][5]. Business Segment Performance - The foreign trade oil transportation segment generated revenue of 14.57 billion yuan in 2024, up 4.1% year-on-year, but the gross profit decreased by 13.5% to 3.59 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.6% [2]. - The domestic oil transportation segment saw a revenue decline of 4.8% to 5.91 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase in gross margin to 25.0% [2]. - The LNG transportation segment contributed a net profit of 0.81 billion yuan, up 2.66% year-on-year [2]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend payout ratio of 50.82% for 2024, with an annual dividend of 0.43 yuan per share, an increase of 0.08 yuan per share compared to 2023. This results in a dividend yield of 3.8% based on the stock price of 11.41 yuan as of March 27, 2025 [2]. Capacity and Fleet - As of December 31, 2024, the company had the world's largest oil tanker fleet, comprising 159 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 23.74 million tons. Additionally, there are 12 oil tankers under construction [3]. - The LNG fleet includes 50 operational vessels with a total capacity of 8.42 million cubic meters, and 37 LNG vessels are under construction [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26 billion yuan in 2025, 26.85 billion yuan in 2026, and 28.28 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 11.8%, 3.3%, and 5.3% respectively [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 5.03 billion yuan in 2025, 5.42 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.77 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 24.5%, 7.8%, and 6.5% respectively [5][10].