Group 1 - The article emphasizes the three major pitfalls for trend traders: greed, fear, and prediction. Greed and fear are human weaknesses, while prediction is a behavioral weakness. It argues against predicting the market, as the only certainty in the market is uncertainty [1] Group 2 - The bond market shows a balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a significant decline in long-term bond yields. The central bank conducted a 139.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 301.3 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 161.5 billion yuan [3][5] - The interbank funding rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.30% and DR007 around 1.44% [3] - The sentiment in the bond market is stable, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.85%, rising to 1.855%, and then falling back to 1.844% after the central bank's actions [5] Group 3 - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: 1Y at 1.4000%, 2Y at 1.4025%, 5Y at 1.6200%, 10Y at 1.8285%, and long-term bonds at 2.2515% [6] - The market shows a mixed performance in terms of bond yields, with some experiencing slight declines while others remain stable [6]

Bond Market Issuance - In July, the bond market issued a total of 77,536.2 billion yuan across various types of bonds, including 12,226.5 billion yuan in government bonds, 12,134.9 billion yuan in local government bonds, 13,905.5 billion yuan in financial bonds, 13,496.8 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 329.3 billion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 24,743.6 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [2] Bond Market Operation - The interbank bond market recorded a total transaction volume of 37.3 trillion yuan in July, with an average daily transaction of 1.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.5% [3] - The exchange bond market had a transaction volume of 4.4 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 190.4 billion yuan [3] Foreign Participation in Bond Market - As of the end of July, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market was 4.0 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.1% of the total custody balance [4] - Foreign institutions held 2.0 trillion yuan in government bonds, representing 51.4% of their total holdings [4] Money Market Operation - The interbank lending market saw a transaction volume of 9.8 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a month-on-month increase of 16.6% [5] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.45%, down by 1 basis point from the previous month [5] Bill Market Operation - In July, the acceptance amount of commercial bills was 3.7 trillion yuan, while the discount amount was 3.1 trillion yuan [6] - Small and micro enterprises accounted for 93.5% of all bill issuers, with a total bill issuance amount of 2.8 trillion yuan [6] Stock Market Operation - By the end of July, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,573.2 points, up 128.8 points or 3.7% from the previous month [7] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 678.5 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 32.9% [7] Holder Structure in Interbank Bond Market - As of the end of July, there were 3,986 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [8] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.3% of the total bonds, primarily concentrated in public funds, state-owned commercial banks, and insurance financial institutions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery with government bond futures mostly flat, while interbank bond yields fell by approximately 1 basis point, indicating a cautious trading environment as the end of the quarter approaches [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly flat, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.10% at 120.720, while the 10-year main contract fell by 0.02% to 108.950 [2]. - Major interbank bond yields declined, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 1.5 basis points to 1.849%, and the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.7175% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down by 4.02 basis points to 3.7786% [3]. - In the Eurozone, 10-year French, German, Italian, and Spanish bond yields increased slightly, indicating mixed trends in the European bond market [3]. Primary Market Activity - Heilongjiang Province's local bonds saw high bid-to-cover ratios, with the 3-year bond receiving a bid multiple of 19.51 and the 5-year bond at 22.85, reflecting strong demand [4]. Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 5,093 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 3,058 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The overall liquidity in the market remains stable, with slight declines in overnight and seven-day repo rates, indicating a controlled liquidity environment [5]. Institutional Insights - Zhongyou Fixed Income noted a surprising increase in demand for ultra-long credit bonds, driven by public offerings and insurance funds, suggesting a positive short-term outlook for this segment [6]. - CITIC Securities highlighted that the current bond market may continue to experience a range-bound pattern due to the absence of key variables, with potential for both upward and downward breaks depending on fundamental and policy adjustments [6].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 23, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 220.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the bid and awarded amount both at 220.5 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 242 billion yuan in reverse repos and 100 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits matured [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overall funding environment is relatively loose, with overnight pledged repo rates slightly declining but remaining around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate increased by over 1 basis point [3] - The latest overnight financing guarantee rate in the U.S. is 4.28% [5] - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, showing little change from the previous day [6] Group 3: Interbank Major Rate Bond Yields - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: - 1Y: 1.3550% - 2Y: 1.3725% - 3Y: 1.4000% - 5Y: 1.4820% - 7Y: 1.5700% - 10Y: 1.6400% [9] Group 4: Recent City Investment Bonds (AAA) Yield Spread Trends - Recent trends and data on yield spreads for city investment bonds (AAA) were analyzed, indicating market conditions [10] Group 5: National Bond Futures Closing - The closing prices for national bond futures are as follows: - 30-year main contract down 0.04% - 10-year main contract down 0.01% - 5-year main contract unchanged - 2-year main contract down 0.01% [11] Group 6: Key News - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Premier Li Qiang will attend the 16th Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin from June 24 to 25, where he will deliver a special speech at the opening ceremony [11] - Iran plans to close the Strait of Hormuz, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responding that the safety and stability of the region are in the common interest of the international community [11] Group 7: Bond Market Developments - The first low-altitude economy ABS was successfully established on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [15] - The Financial Supervision Administration has allowed currency brokerage companies to facilitate transactions between financial institutions in currency, bonds, foreign exchange, and gold markets [15] - The Japanese government plans to more actively reduce the scale of long-term government bond auctions [15]

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation on April 8, with a total amount of 167.4 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net injection of 102.5 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [1][2]. Funding Conditions - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions have both increased, with the weighted average rate for overnight repos rising by approximately 1 basis point [3]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.79%, showing a significant increase compared to the previous day [6]. Government Bonds - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: - 1-year: 1.5325% - 2-year: 1.4700% - 5-year: 1.5395% - 10-year: 1.6650% - 30-year: 1.8590% [9]. Recent City Investment Bonds - The yield spreads for AAA-rated city investment bonds across different maturities have shown notable trends, indicating market sentiment and risk perception [10][11]. Treasury Futures - The main contracts for treasury futures have experienced declines, with the 30-year contract down by 0.54%, the 10-year down by 0.17%, and shorter maturities also showing slight decreases [12]. Key News - The central bank expressed strong support for the Central Huijin Investment Company to stabilize the capital market by increasing its holdings in stock market index funds and providing necessary refinancing support [13]. - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced a competitive evaluation process for cities to receive central financial support for urban renewal actions in 2025 [14]. - The financial regulatory authority optimized the investment ratios for insurance funds, potentially bringing an estimated 1.66 trillion yuan of new funds into the market by fully utilizing the upper limit of equity asset ratios [14]. Global Macro - Singapore's Prime Minister stated that the country is carefully assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs and will not impose retaliatory tariffs [16]. - Malaysia's Prime Minister announced that the country will take necessary measures to protect its economic interests in response to the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy [17]. Bond Market Events - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 80 billion yuan of three-phase discount treasury bonds on April 9 [19]. - Various cities are exploring policies to stabilize the real estate market [19]. - Jiangsu Province is encouraging enterprises to issue technology innovation bonds in the interbank market [19]. - Japan's 30-year government bond auction saw the weakest demand since December 2023 [19].