Core Insights - Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is valued at a market cap of $74.9 billion and operates in over 150 countries, focusing on premium snacking products like biscuits, chocolates, and candies [1] Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Mondelez reported a 5.9% increase in net revenue, with organic sales up 3.4% driven by price increases, but volumes suffered and margins were pressured due to high cocoa and input costs [4] - Adjusted EPS fell 24.2% year over year to $0.73, and operating income decreased 35.5% from the previous year to $744 million [4] - For the current fiscal year, analysts expect MDLZ's EPS to decline 12.8% year over year to $2.93 [5] Stock Performance - Over the past year, MDLZ shares have declined 17.2%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which has surged 17.4% [2] - Year-to-date, the stock is down 3.3%, while the benchmark index has gained 16% [2] - The stock has also trailed the First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF's 14.4% loss over the past 52 weeks [3] Analyst Ratings - Among 26 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with 14 "Strong Buy," three "Moderate Buy," eight "Hold," and one "Strong Sell" rating [5] - The mean price target of $71.56 suggests a 23.8% potential upside from current price levels, while the Street-high price target of $85 indicates an upside potential of 47.1% [6]

Core Insights - The holiday season significantly influences snacking choices, with traditions and childhood memories playing a crucial role in consumer behavior [1][5][7] - The State of Snacking report, developed with The Harris Poll, highlights the global impact of cultural celebrations on snacking habits, particularly in Asian cultures [2][5] Company Overview - Mondelēz International, Inc. reported net revenues of approximately $36.4 billion for 2024, positioning itself as a leader in the snacking industry with a diverse portfolio of iconic brands [4] Consumer Behavior - A strong connection exists between snacking and cherished childhood experiences, with 76% of consumers recalling fond memories of sharing snacks with parents [5] - 78% of global consumers enjoy sharing their favorite childhood snacks, with particularly high rates in the Philippines, Indonesia, China, and India [5] - 73% of consumers believe certain snacks have been passed down through generations, especially in Indonesia, India, and the Philippines [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reaffirmed its full year 2025 organic sales growth guidance of about 5% despite headwinds from U.S. retailer restocking and hot weather in Europe impacting chocolate demand [9][10] - Organic sales in North America declined about 3.5% year over year in the first half, with underlying trends softer than anticipated [13][19] - The company expects a reasonable P&L for 2025 with top-line growth of 4% to 5% and a 10% EPS decline, indicating a challenging year ahead [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that chocolate consumption in Europe was impacted by hot weather, particularly in the U.K. and Germany, leading to a decline in volumes [10][11] - In North America, the company is focusing on optimizing shopping trips and maximizing brand presence, particularly for Oreo, which has seen increased penetration but decreased purchase frequency [17][19] - The company is implementing price pack architecture in Europe to protect specific price points and stimulate consumption through promotional activities [12][27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In emerging markets, the company sees significant growth potential, particularly in India and China, despite current consumer caution [36][40] - Brazil is performing well with good single-digit growth, while Mexico is experiencing a slowdown in consumer offtake [40][41] - Cocoa supply is expected to increase, leading to a potential surplus and a decrease in cocoa prices, which could positively impact margins [32][33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term strategy established in 2018 remains valid, focusing on building presence in key categories and supporting brand growth [5][6] - The company is exploring collaborations with other brands to drive innovation and market presence, viewing these partnerships as win-win opportunities [20][25] - The cakes and pastries category is identified as a significant growth opportunity, with expectations of reaching $125 billion by 2030 [52][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed that consumer spending behavior has not changed significantly over the past two and a half years, with consumers remaining cautious and prioritizing basic necessities [14][15] - The company anticipates continued challenges in North America over the next 6 to 12 months, with a focus on adapting to consumer behavior [19][40] - Management is optimistic about the upcoming Christmas season, expecting stronger engagement and better elasticities as consumers adjust to new price levels [12][29] Other Important Information - The company is closely monitoring cocoa supply dynamics and exploring alternative sourcing to mitigate cocoa price risks [30][34] - The capital allocation strategy remains disciplined, with a focus on smaller M&A opportunities and a pragmatic approach to share buybacks [47][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for North America in the next 6 to 12 months? - Management indicated that consumers are cautious and spending has not increased, leading to a challenging environment for the foreseeable future [16][19] Question: How does the company view collaborations with other brands? - Collaborations are seen as opportunities for innovation and market expansion, with potential benefits for both parties involved [20][25] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding cocoa supply and pricing? - The company is optimistic about an increase in cocoa supply leading to lower prices, which would positively impact margins [32][33] Question: What are the growth expectations in emerging markets? - Emerging markets are expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a focus on building strong brands and distribution networks [36][39]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reaffirmed its full year 2025 organic sales growth guidance of about 5% despite facing headwinds from U.S. retailer restocking and adverse weather conditions in Europe [9][10] - For 2025, the company anticipates a reasonable top-line growth of 4% to 5% but expects a 10% decline in EPS, indicating a challenging profit environment [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales in North America declined approximately 3.5% year over year in the first half, attributed to retailer restocking and softer underlying trends [14][20] - The company is focusing on optimizing shopping trips and maximizing brand presence, particularly for products like Oreo, which has seen increased penetration but decreased purchase frequency [18][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, the company experienced a decline in chocolate volumes due to higher temperatures impacting consumption, particularly in key markets like the U.K. and Germany [12][27] - Elasticities in Europe have increased to around 0.6 to 0.7, higher than the anticipated 0.4, indicating a shift in consumer response to pricing [28][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term strategy established in 2018 remains valid, focusing on building presence in key categories and supporting brand growth [5][6] - The company is exploring collaborations with other brands, such as Coca-Cola and Biscoff, to enhance product offerings and market presence without engaging in M&A [21][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer spending behavior has not changed significantly over the past two and a half years, with consumers remaining cautious and prioritizing basic necessities [15][16] - The outlook for North America is expected to remain challenging for the next 6 to 12 months, with a focus on adapting to consumer behavior and optimizing product offerings [20][40] Other Important Information - The company is optimistic about cocoa prices decreasing in the future due to increased supply from West Africa and other regions, which could improve margins [30][31][34] - The cakes and pastries category is seen as a significant growth opportunity, with expectations of reaching a $125 billion market by 2030 [52][54] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for North America in the next 6 to 12 months? - Management expects continued challenges in North America, with consumers remaining cautious and spending patterns not changing significantly [20] Question: How does the company view its collaborations with other brands? - Collaborations are seen as win-win opportunities that enhance product offerings without the complexities of M&A [21][26] Question: What is the current view on cocoa fundamentals? - Cocoa supply is expected to increase, leading to a potential decrease in cocoa prices, which would benefit the company's margins [30][31][34] Question: What are the growth expectations in emerging markets? - Emerging markets are crucial for long-term growth, with a focus on building strong brands and expanding distribution [36][39]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reaffirmed its full year 2025 organic sales growth guidance of about 5% despite facing headwinds from U.S. retailer restocking and adverse weather conditions in Europe affecting chocolate demand [9][10] - For 2025, the company anticipates a reasonable top-line growth of 4% to 5% but expects a 10% decline in EPS, which is considered acceptable given the current cocoa circumstances [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales in North America declined approximately 3.5% year over year in the first half, attributed to retailer restocking and softer underlying trends [14][20] - The company is focusing on optimizing shopping trips and maximizing brand presence, particularly for Oreo, which has seen increased penetration but decreased purchase frequency [18][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, the company experienced higher elasticities than anticipated, with current levels around 0.6 to 0.7, compared to the expected 0.4 [28][29] - The cocoa supply situation is improving, with a 7% increase in cocoa pot counts in West Africa compared to the last five-year norm, suggesting potential price reductions in the future [31][32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term strategy established in 2018 remains valid, focusing on building presence in key categories and supporting brand growth [5][6] - The company is exploring collaborations with other brands, such as Coca-Cola and Biscoff, to enhance product offerings and market presence [21][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer spending has remained stagnant over the past 24 to 30 months, leading to cautious shopping behavior [15][16] - The outlook for North America is expected to remain challenging for the next 6 to 12 months, with consumers becoming increasingly careful in their spending [20] Other Important Information - The cakes and pastries category is projected to grow from $95 billion to approximately $125 billion by 2030, with the company aiming to enhance its position in this fragmented market [52][54] - The company is maintaining a disciplined approach to M&A, focusing on smaller assets that align with its strategic goals [48][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for North America in the next 6 to 12 months? - Management expects continued challenges in North America, with consumers remaining cautious and spending levels stagnant [20] Question: How does the company view current cocoa levels and supply dynamics? - The company believes current cocoa prices are unsustainable and anticipates a surplus in the market, leading to potential price reductions [30][32] Question: What is the strategy regarding M&A and share buybacks? - The company remains disciplined in M&A, focusing on smaller strategic assets, while being pragmatic about share buybacks given current stock prices [46][50]

Core Insights - Mondelēz International reported a net revenue increase of 7.7% in Q2 2025, with organic net revenue growth of 5.6% driven by strong pricing execution in the chocolate segment and growth across most geographies [1][2][5] - The diluted EPS rose by 8.9% to $0.49, while adjusted EPS decreased by 14.5% on a constant currency basis to $0.73 [1][4][14] - The company returned $2.9 billion to shareholders in the first half of 2025 and announced a 6% increase in the quarterly dividend [1][14] Financial Performance - **Net Revenue**: Q2 2025 net revenues reached $8.984 billion, a 7.7% increase compared to the previous year, with organic growth of 5.6% [3][19] - **Operating Income**: Operating income for Q2 2025 was $1.172 billion, reflecting a 37.2% increase year-over-year, while adjusted operating income decreased by 14.0% [4][14] - **Gross Profit**: Gross profit was $2.937 billion, up 5.0%, but the gross profit margin decreased to 32.7% [4][14] Regional Performance - **Latin America**: Reported net revenues of $1.194 billion, a decrease of 3.1% year-over-year, with organic growth of 5.4% [3] - **Asia, Middle East & Africa**: Revenues increased by 14.7% to $1.821 billion, with organic growth of 8.6% [3] - **Europe**: Revenues rose by 18.7% to $3.412 billion, with organic growth of 12.5% [3] - **North America**: Revenues decreased by 3.5% to $2.557 billion, with organic growth declining by 3.4% [3] Cash Flow and Capital Return - The company generated $1.4 billion in cash from operating activities year-to-date and reported free cash flow of $0.8 billion [1][14] - A quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share was declared, marking a 6% increase [1][14] 2025 Outlook - The company maintains an organic net revenue growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, with adjusted EPS expected to decline by about 10% on a constant currency basis due to cocoa cost inflation [7][8] - Free cash flow for 2025 is projected to exceed $3 billion [7]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Food-Miscellaneous industry is experiencing challenges due to persistent inflation affecting consumer spending and a shift towards private-label products [1][4] - Rising input costs and operational expenses are squeezing profit margins across the sector [1][5] - The industry includes a variety of food and packaged food items, with sales primarily through wholesalers, distributors, and retail channels [3] Major Trends - The market landscape is tough, with consumers increasingly opting for lower-cost alternatives, impacting sales volumes for leading food brands [4] - Companies are adopting strategies focused on value marketing, promotional campaigns, and expanding affordable product lines to meet changing consumer demands [4] - Cost pressures are significant, with elevated prices for raw materials, labor, and transportation affecting profitability [5] Strategic Initiatives - Food companies are focusing on cost efficiency, product innovation, and portfolio diversification to navigate current pressures [2][6] - Established brands are leveraging customer loyalty and innovation to maintain market position and adapt to consumer preferences [6] - Companies are modernizing production capabilities and diversifying product offerings to ensure future growth [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Food-Miscellaneous industry ranks 187, placing it in the bottom 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating dull near-term prospects [7][8] - The industry's consensus earnings estimate has declined by 3.1% since April 2025, reflecting decreasing confidence in earnings growth potential [8] Comparative Analysis - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed the S&P 500, declining by 6.9% compared to the S&P 500's growth of 12.5% [9] - The industry is currently trading at a forward P/E of 15.85X, lower than the S&P 500's 22.43X and the sector's 17.39X [12] Company Highlights - Mondelez International is focusing on core categories and strategic portfolio reshaping, with a current EPS estimate of $3.02 [15][16] - Sysco Corporation is enhancing capabilities through its "Recipe for Growth" framework, with an EPS estimate of $4.38 [19][20] - McCormick & Company is leveraging innovation and brand marketing, with a current EPS estimate of $3.02 [23][24] - Celsius Holdings is rapidly growing in the beverage sector with a focus on health-conscious products, though its EPS estimate has declined to 81 cents [27][29]

Core Insights - The 2024 State of Snacking report by Mondelēz International reveals a trend towards mindful snacking, with consumers focusing on flavor, taste, and texture while being present during their snacking moments [1][2][3] Consumer Behavior - The survey indicates that nearly all consumers are managing portion sizes and being attentive while snacking [2] - 96% of global consumers engage in mindful snacking behaviors, and 79% appreciate snacks more when consumed mindfully [7] - 81% of consumers pay attention to the sensory experience of their snacks, savoring the flavor, taste, and texture [7] Portion Control - Over half of consumers seek snacks that are portion controlled, with 69% looking for such options [7] - Mindful consumption is emphasized as a way to enjoy snacks in a balanced manner [7] Company Positioning - Mondelēz International is adapting to evolving consumer preferences by ensuring that every snack provides opportunities for connection and mindfulness [3] - The company reported net revenues of approximately $36.4 billion in 2024, leading the future of snacking with iconic brands [4]

Core Insights - Mondelēz International, Inc. released its 2024 Human Rights Due Diligence and Modern Slavery Report, highlighting progress in addressing human rights and modern slavery risks across its operations and value chain [1] - The company emphasizes the importance of human rights due diligence as part of its "Snacking Made Right" mission, focusing on meaningful partnerships and a culture of care and integrity [2] Human Rights Due Diligence Efforts - Mondelēz International is enhancing its human rights due diligence (HRDD) across its operations and supplier network, with a focus on prioritized ingredients like cocoa [3] - The Cocoa Life program aims to make cocoa farming more profitable, protect forests, and empower local communities, including initiatives for women's empowerment and entrepreneurship [3] Sector Collaboration - The company is investing approximately $3 million from 2022 to 2026 in the Child Learning and Education Facility (CLEF) to combat child labor in the West African cocoa supply chain, targeting over 4 million children [4] - A new public-private partnership, the System Change Architecture for Learning Excellence (SCALE), is being supported with an investment of around $1 million over the next four years to improve education quality in Ghana [5] Audit and Training Statistics - Approximately 96% of owned manufacturing sites and 98% of prioritized suppliers have undergone third-party SMETA audits in the past three years [6][7] - Since the launch of its Human Rights Policy in 2021, the company has trained over 50,000 employees on human rights issues, including 7,000 in manufacturing and logistics [7] Child Labor Monitoring - By the end of 2024, about 89% of Cocoa Life communities in West Africa, representing approximately 2,480 communities, will be covered by the Child Labor Monitoring & Remediation System (CLMRS) [7] - The company aims to cover all West African Cocoa Life communities with a CLMRS by the end of 2025, having conducted over 240,000 interviews to prevent child labor [7] Broader Human Rights Initiatives - Mondelēz International is committed to respecting human rights throughout its value chain, guided by the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGPs) [8] - The company collaborates with various industry coalitions to enhance its human rights efforts, including partnerships to combat child labor and improve education in cocoa-producing regions [10]

Summary of Mondelez International (MDLZ) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mondelez International (MDLZ) - **Date of Conference**: June 04, 2025 - **Speakers**: Dirk Brandeplut (CEO) and Luca Zaramella (CFO) Key Industry Insights Consumer Health Trends - **US Consumer Confidence**: Low, with significant declines noted in March and April 2025, leading to cautious spending behavior, especially among lower social classes [6][7] - **Snacking Categories**: Overall slowdown observed, with biscuits performing relatively better than other snacking categories, gaining market share despite a 2% volume decline in the category [8] - **Mexico**: Similar consumer nervousness due to tariffs and unemployment risks, resulting in category slowdowns [9][10] - **Europe**: More positive consumer sentiment, with better performance in biscuits and chocolate categories due to wage indexation [11][12] - **China**: Consumer confidence at a low, but Mondelez is gaining market share with high single-digit growth [13][14] - **India**: Shift from premium to basic products in response to inflation, with signs of recovery in consumer sentiment [15] - **Brazil**: Strong consumer performance and market share gains, viewed as a bright spot [16] Strategic Strengths - **Geographical Spread**: 75% of Mondelez's business is outside the US, providing resilience against local market challenges [17][18] - **Distribution Focus**: Aggressive distribution strategy to ensure product availability in various retail formats [18][19] - **Category Resilience**: Long-term growth expected in key categories like biscuits and chocolate, with historical growth rates of 2% volume and 3-5% net revenue [19][20] Chocolate and Cocoa Market Dynamics - **Pricing Strategy**: Successful implementation of pricing increases and revenue growth management (RGM) strategies, with a focus on offering products at various price points [22][23] - **Market Share Gains**: Despite inflation, Mondelez has gained market share in key markets, particularly during the Easter season [23][25] - **Elasticity Concerns**: Monitoring consumer reactions to price changes, with a belief that cocoa prices will eventually decrease [24][26][61] Growth Strategies in the US - **Product Packaging Adjustments**: Shift from larger family packs to smaller packs priced under $4 to meet consumer budget constraints [36] - **In-store Activations**: Focus on brand activations and promotions to drive consumer interest and sales [38] - **Channel Shifts**: Opportunity to capture market share in underrepresented channels [39] Emerging Markets Focus - **Brand Equity and Distribution**: Emphasis on building brand equity and expanding distribution in emerging markets like China, India, Brazil, and Mexico [40][41][42][44] - **Adaptation to Local Markets**: Tailoring products and pricing strategies to meet local consumer needs and preferences [41][43] Cakes and Pastries Opportunity - **Market Potential**: Cakes and pastries viewed as a natural extension of Mondelez's product offerings, with opportunities for premiumization and consolidation [48][49][51][52] M&A Strategy - **Active M&A Interest**: Mondelez has a list of potential acquisition targets and remains disciplined in pursuing strategic opportunities [63][66][70] - **Capital Deployment**: Focus on stock buybacks while maintaining flexibility for future acquisitions [70][71] Regulatory and Health Trends - **Health and Wellness Trends**: Monitoring shifts towards health and wellness, with a focus on indulgent snacking remaining strong [75][76] - **Regulatory Adaptation**: Prepared to adapt to potential regulatory changes in the US, with a proactive approach to health-related discussions [78][79] Cultural and Operational Improvements - **Local First Strategy**: Emphasis on local adaptation while enhancing centralized innovation efforts [84][85] - **Long-term Strategy Execution**: Need for improved long-term strategic planning alongside current operational management [86][87]