·德国商业银行：泰国央行或按兵不动，通胀持续低迷为年中降息铺路 ·道明证券：英镑涨势缺乏基本面支撑，美元反弹与政治风险或终结其强势行情 ·凯投宏观：印度央行的货币宽松周期可能已经结束 【机构分析】 ·德国商业银行分析指出，泰国央行预计将在本月货币政策会议上维持利率不变，以评估大选后对经济 与市场的影响。泰国消费者物价指数已连续10个月下滑，且2026年全年预计将低于央行1%-3%的目标区 间，为年内降息打开空间。当前通胀持续低迷叠加政治不确定性，为泰国央行在今年晚些时候转向宽松 货币政策创造了条件。 ·摩根大通在印尼2025年Q4 GDP超预期后，将2026年经济增长预测从4.9%上调至5.2%，但警告年初增长 动能或因财政退坡与汽车激励政策退潮而放缓。若印尼政府严格执行3%财政赤字上限，2026年财政支 持力度可能减弱，进一步拖累年初经济表现。尽管印尼经济年末表现强劲，摩根大通仍预计印尼央行将 在2026年第二季度实施两次降息（每次25个基点），前提是卢比汇率保持基本稳定。 ·Kenanga经济学家指出，受益于强劲的国内经济数据及对2025年四季度GDP终值的乐观预期，在美元获 得支撑、美联储推迟降息的背景 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut, marking its third cut of the year, with an 87% probability indicated by CME Group data [1] - The Fed will release its final Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2025, which includes forecasts on economic growth, inflation, and interest rates [2] - Investors are anticipating potential changes to the Fed's outlook, particularly regarding interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 [2] Group 2 - There is a focus on potential disagreements among Fed officials, as indicated by two members voting against the previous rate cut decision in October [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is not just a numerical adjustment but a significant test of the central bank's independence amid political pressures, particularly from President Trump [1][4][7]. Economic Rationality Support - The Federal Reserve's decision is backed by solid economic logic, as recent data indicates a moderate slowdown in the U.S. economy, with predictions of further weakening in growth rates [2][3]. - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, highlighting increasing economic risks [2]. - The Fed's inflation forecast remains at a median of 3% for the end of the year, significantly above the 2% target, driven mainly by supply-side factors rather than demand-pull inflation [2]. Political Pressure Penetration - President Trump has openly criticized the Federal Reserve and taken actions to influence monetary policy, including appointing Stephen Milan, who aligns closely with Trump's demands for aggressive rate cuts [4][5]. - Milan's dual role in the White House and the Fed raises concerns about the independence of the central bank, as he voted against the Fed's decision shortly after taking office [5]. Independence Boundaries - Despite political pressures, the Fed maintains rational judgments regarding inflation and employment, indicating a struggle to uphold its independence [6]. - The recent rate cut reflects a compromise between economic rationality and political demands, suggesting a normalization of political intervention in monetary policy [7].