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吉比特(603444):存量有压力,但股息率较高,现金流健康
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-04-10 03:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3,696 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 11.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 945 million yuan, down 16.02% year-on-year [5] - The company has a healthy cash flow with a cash dividend total of 718 million yuan for 2024, representing 75.94% of net profit, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.57% based on the closing price on April 7, 2025 [5] - The core product revenue showed a decline, with the main titles experiencing a total revenue of 3,788 million yuan in 2024, down 14.92% year-on-year [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: Revenue of 4,185 million yuan, net profit of 1,125 million yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 3,696 million yuan, net profit of 945 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 3,909 million yuan, net profit of 908 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 4,222 million yuan, net profit of 1,063 million yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 4,433 million yuan, net profit of 1,122 million yuan [2][5] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 16.7x for 2025, 14.3x for 2026, and 13.5x for 2027 [5] Business Trends - The company has several new products in the pipeline, including "Wanjian Changsheng" set to launch in January 2025 and "Zhangjian Chuanqi" planned for the first half of 2025 [6] - The company’s overseas revenue has shown significant growth, with a total of 500 million yuan in 2024, up 83.92% year-on-year [5] Cash Flow and Expenses - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 1,249 million yuan, with a cash conversion ratio of 132.2% for net profit [5] - Sales expenses decreased by 13% year-on-year to 980 million yuan, while R&D expenses increased by 11.52% to 758 million yuan due to a rise in personnel [5]
吉比特(603444):业绩筑底,关注新品表现
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-02 02:29
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][17] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 11.7%, primarily due to decreases in revenue from "Wandao Mobile" and "Yinian Xiaoyao" by 11.4% and 42.5% respectively, while the "Wandao" PC game saw a revenue increase of 3.9% [1][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 940 million, down 16.0% year-on-year, mainly due to losses from newly launched domestic games and overseas operations [1][9] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 720 million (before tax) in 2024, which accounts for 75.9% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][9] Revenue and Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 is 87.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margins for self-operated, joint-operated, and licensed operations at 90.4%, 84.7%, and 97.8% respectively [2][11] - The overall expense ratio for 2024 increased by 4.2 percentage points to 51.9%, primarily due to a significant decline in revenue [2][11] - The company reported a single-quarter revenue of 880 million in Q4, down 14.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 8.1% to 290 million, attributed to reduced issuance costs and foreign exchange gains [1][9] Product Performance - The "Wandao" PC game showed stable performance with a revenue increase of 3.93%, while the mobile version experienced a decline of 11.39% [3][16] - The company launched several new games in 2024, including "Fei Ba Long Qi Shi (Overseas Version)" and "Monster Never Cry (Overseas Version)", which contributed to an 83.9% increase in overseas revenue to 500 million [3][16] - Upcoming products include the self-developed MMO mobile game "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo (M88)" and the agency-operated Three Kingdoms-themed SLG "Jiu Mu Zhi Ye", expected to launch in 2025 [3][16] Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.01 billion, 1.14 billion, and 1.23 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 14, 15.83, and 17.04 [4][17] - The projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 16x, 14x, and 13x respectively, indicating a strong long-term growth potential [4][17] - The company maintains a strong research and development capability and excellent long-term operational ability, which is expected to drive a new product cycle [4][17]
吉比特(603444):新游戏及海外业务助力公司发展
Huajin Securities· 2025-04-01 14:06
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's growth is supported by new games and overseas business expansion [1] - The company has shown a steady performance in its core products, with new releases and a strong pipeline for future games [6] - The financial forecast indicates a recovery in net profit and earnings per share (EPS) over the next few years [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue (in million) for 2023A is 4,185, with a YoY decrease of 19.0%. The forecast for 2025E is 4,127, showing an 11.7% increase [3] - Net profit (in million) for 2023A is 1,125, with a YoY decrease of 23.0%. The forecast for 2025E is 1,125, indicating a 19.0% increase [3] - Gross margin is projected to remain stable around 87.5% from 2025E to 2027E [3] - The company’s EPS is expected to rise from 15.61 in 2025E to 19.44 in 2027E [3] - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 14.3 in 2025E to 11.5 in 2027E, indicating potential undervaluation [3] Business Performance - The company’s revenue primarily comes from self-developed products, with significant contributions from titles like "Wandao" and "Yinian Xiaoyao" [6] - Overseas revenue reached 500 million, marking an 83.92% increase, driven by new international game launches [6] - R&D expenses accounted for 20.50% of revenue, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation [6] - New game releases have shown promising user engagement, with over one million registrations for "Wanjian Changsheng" within a week of launch [6]