传媒/游戏Ⅱ 吉比特（603444.SH） 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 475.50 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 668.00/198.21 | | 总市值(亿元) | 342.56 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 342.56 | | 总股本(亿股) | 0.72 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.72 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 157.33 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 吉比特 沪深300 相关研究报告 《《九牧之野》上线在即，看好新游持 续驱动公司成长—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.12.12 《出海及新游或持续驱动业绩高增长 —公司信息更新报告》-2025.10.29 《Q2 业绩高增，高分红延续，新游及 出海驱动成长 —公司信息更新报告》 -2025.8.20 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 2026 年 01 月 30 日 证书编号：S0790520030004 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that December 2025 saw the launch of eight key mobile games, with "Jiumu Zhi Ye" standing out due to its innovative gameplay and strong market performance [1][10]. - "Jiumu Zhi Ye" employs a unique "free movement + real-time combat + horizontal strategy" approach, enhancing player engagement and gameplay experience [2][16]. - The game achieved significant milestones, including reaching the top 2 in the iOS free game chart on its first day and ranking 23rd in the iOS revenue chart on launch day [2][16]. Summary by Sections New Game Releases - Eight key mobile games were launched in December 2025, including titles from various developers such as "Jiumu Zhi Ye" by Thunder Game and "Tianxia: Wanxiang" by NetEase [1][10]. Game Performance - "Jiumu Zhi Ye" recorded an average daily revenue of $95,873, significantly outperforming other new releases like "Dudu Face Prank" which had an average daily revenue of $23,947 [12][19]. - The game reached a peak download of 110,115 times on December 20, with a maximum daily revenue of $216,450 [2][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong product reserves, R&D capabilities, and diverse thematic layouts, as the gaming market is expected to reach new highs in revenue and user scale in 2025 [3][22].

Core Viewpoint - The company has engaged in extensive research and development activities, showcasing strong performance in game releases and strategic planning for future growth, particularly in international markets and through the integration of AI technology in operations. Group 1: Game Performance and Releases - The company received 222 institutional research visits from October 29 to December 31, 2025, highlighting interest in its game portfolio [1] - "杖剑传说" (Staff Sword Legend) achieved an average ranking of 43 and a peak of 23 on the App Store in mainland China during Q4 2025, with successful overseas launches in regions like Macau and Japan [1][3] - "问道手游" (Wandao Mobile Game) maintained an average ranking of 66 and peaked at 43, while "一念逍遥" (One Thought of Freedom) and "问剑长生" (Sword of Life) introduced new features and events to enhance player engagement [4][5] Group 2: New Game Launches and Strategies - The new game "九牧之野" (Jiumu Zhiye) saw over one million pre-launch reservations, achieving the top position in the App Store free games category and 22nd in the revenue rankings [2][6] - The company plans to focus on community engagement and dynamic marketing strategies based on user lifetime value (LTV) and return on investment (ROI) for its game releases [7] Group 3: AI Integration in Game Development - AI technology is deeply integrated into both game development and operations, enhancing efficiency in art resource production and code writing through platforms like AIWebHub [9] - AI applications extend to user acquisition, personalized in-game offers, and monitoring of game environments to improve overall user experience and operational efficiency [9] Group 4: Shareholder Returns and Financial Planning - The company has established a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, committing to three profit distributions annually, with cash dividends expected to be at least 50% of the net profit [10] - In the first nine months of 2025, the company distributed 904 million yuan in cash dividends, representing 74.47% of the net profit for that period [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In November, the issuance of game licenses reached a new high, with 184 licenses granted, including 178 domestic and 6 imported games, surpassing the previous record since the resumption of license issuance in 2022 [10][11] - Major self-developed games from leading companies continue to perform well overseas, with Point Point Interactive's "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" ranking first and second in the November overseas mobile game revenue chart [10][11] - A new product cycle is approaching as key new games from listed companies are set to launch, with significant titles scheduled for testing and release in December [6][10] Summary by Sections Game License Issuance - In November, a total of 184 game licenses were issued, setting a new monthly record for domestic licenses, with notable approvals for games from Perfect World, Kaixin, and Bilibili [10][11] - Year-to-date, 1,532 domestic game licenses have been issued, exceeding the total of 1,306 for the entire year of 2024 [10] Overseas Performance - The overseas performance of top self-developed games remains strong, with "Whiteout Survival" achieving over $3.8 billion in cumulative revenue and "Kingshot" exceeding $640 million [10][11] - The casual merge game "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" saw a 10% revenue increase in November, ranking fourth in the global merge game revenue chart [10] Upcoming Game Releases - Key new games from listed companies are set to launch, including Giant Network's "Famous General Kill" on December 19 and G-bits' "Nine Muxi" on December 18 [6][10] - Other notable upcoming titles include Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" scheduled for January 13, 2026, with over 25 million pre-registrations [6][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the upcoming game "九牧之野" (Nine Warriors) is expected to drive significant revenue growth due to its innovative gameplay and strong player interest, with a public test scheduled for December 18, 2025 [4][12] - The company anticipates substantial increases in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, projecting net profits of 16.32 billion, 19.28 billion, and 23.12 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 22.65, 26.77, and 32.10 yuan [4][48] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to recover from 3.696 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.855 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.4% [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 87.9% in 2024 to 93.6% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [6] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 25.6% in 2024 to 27.9% in 2025, showcasing operational efficiency [6] - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 34.3 in 2024 to 19.9 in 2025, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [6] Game Development Insights - "九牧之野" is designed to cater to a broad audience with its 三国 (Three Kingdoms) theme and innovative SLG+RTS gameplay, which combines strategic planning with real-time combat [5][12] - The game aims to reduce player fatigue and spending through mechanisms like "前 200 抽橙卡不重复" (first 200 draws guarantee no duplicates), which is expected to enhance player retention and engagement [5][24] - The report highlights the game's strong pre-launch performance, with over 100,000 pre-registrations within a short period, indicating positive market reception [4][37] Market Positioning - The company is positioned to compete effectively in the SLG market, with "九牧之野" expected to join the ranks of top-performing games like "万国觉醒" (Rise of Kingdoms) and "三国志·战略版" (Three Kingdoms: Strategy Edition) [45][46] - The report notes that the game's innovative features and strong marketing strategies, including partnerships with popular streamers, are likely to drive its success upon launch [37][43]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming sector's valuation has reached a lower limit of 15 times, with expectations of maintaining high prosperity and performance growth certainty through 2026, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1][3][25] - The A-share market recommends a "3+2" combination: Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Century Huatong as stable fundamentals; Gibit and 37 Interactive are positioned lower but showing recent improvements [1][4] Company-Specific Insights Tencent - Expected to launch multiple mid-sized new games in 2026, with a diverse range of genres [7] - Notable titles include "Under One Person," "Rock Kingdom World," and "Monster Hunter Traveler" [7] NetEase - Anticipates additional revenue of 2-3 billion from international IP adaptations and domestic MMO games [2][24] - Key upcoming titles include "Forgotten Sea" and "Infinite," with the former developed by the team behind "Identity V" [7][24] Giant Network - "Famous General Kill" is expected to contribute 200-300 million in profit, with "Supernatural Action Group" potentially increasing annual revenue to 7-8 billion if successful during the Spring Festival [10][12] Kaiying Network - The "Legend Box" platform is driving growth, with DAU expected to reach 650,000 to 700,000 by the end of 2026, and annual advertising revenue projected at around 2.4 billion [10][13] Bilibili - Strong growth in advertising business, with expectations to outperform the overall internet advertising growth rate [21] - Anticipated game revenue growth in the low double digits, with "Three Kingdoms Hundred Generals Card" projected to generate 1-1.5 billion [21] Gibit - Recent performance impacted by a decline in revenue from "Sword of the World," but new game "Nine Mu of the Wild" expected to contribute 1-1.5 billion [19][20] Heart Company - Facing stock price pressure but has potential due to rapid progress in programmatic advertising, with profits expected to reach 150-200 million in 2026 [22] Market Trends and Predictions - The gaming sector is expected to maintain strong growth certainty compared to other sectors, with a focus on identifying high-certainty investment targets [25] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be stable, with significant product launches concentrated in the summer [11][25] Additional Insights - The competitive landscape is expected to increase in 2026, but companies will focus on their strengths without excessive suppression of smaller firms [11] - The overall sentiment is optimistic for the gaming industry, with a recommendation for investors to strategically select stocks based on performance certainty and market conditions [25]

Core Insights - The company's products such as "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" and "Dao You Lai Wa Bao" have shown strong performance and sustainability, expected to continue contributing to revenue in 2026 [1] - The company maintains an "Overweight" rating due to the promising performance of new products and an upward revision of EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.66%, with a single-quarter net profit of 569 million yuan, up 307.7% [2] - Total revenue for the first three quarters was 4.486 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.17%, with a single-quarter revenue of 1.968 billion yuan, up 129.19% [2] - The company announced a cash dividend of 6 yuan per share, with total dividends amounting to 904 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] Product Performance - "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" generated a total revenue of 1.166 billion yuan in the mainland for the first three quarters, maintaining a position in the top 40 of the iOS game sales chart [3] - "Dao You Lai Wa Bao," launched in May, has generated 316 million yuan in revenue by the end of September, contributing positively to the company's performance [3] - The company's overseas revenue for the first nine months reached 588 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.46%, with "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo (Overseas Version)" contributing 478 million yuan since its launch [3] Future Outlook - Upcoming product launches such as "Wen Jian Chang Sheng" and the overseas release of "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" are anticipated to further drive growth [3] - The company is preparing to launch the SLG mobile game "Jiu Mu Zhi Ye," which is expected to contribute to 2026 performance, with offline trials already commenced [3]

Group 1 - The game "Wen Jian Chang Sheng" is planned to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2025 in regions such as Hong Kong, Macau, and South Korea [2] - The game "Jiu Mu Zhi Ye" has obtained its license and is currently in the testing and adjustment phase, with the specific launch date yet to be determined [2] - Investors are encouraged to follow official information from Thunder Game for updates on the launch of "Jiu Mu Zhi Ye" [2]

Summary of G-bits Conference Call Company Overview - G-bits is a gaming company that has recently launched new games, including "Wen Jie Chang Sheng" and "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo," which have shown strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Strong Financial Performance**: G-bits reported exceptional financial results, exceeding expectations for three consecutive quarters. In Q2, the company confirmed a stable performance from existing products while new releases "Wen Jie Chang Sheng" and "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" achieved impressive results, with "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" generating 420 million in its first month and over 100 million in overseas markets [3][4]. - **Market Appeal of New Products**: Both "Wen Jie Chang Sheng" and "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" have performed well in the market. "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" achieved 420 million in domestic revenue and at least 100 million in overseas revenue in its first month, contributing significantly to G-bits' overall performance [2][4]. - **Future Growth Drivers**: Future growth for G-bits is expected to come from the continued strong performance of self-developed new products, enhanced overseas distribution capabilities, and the potential contribution from the agency product "Jiu Mu Zhi Ye." The agency product has received approval and is currently in testing [5]. - **Impact of Diverse User Base**: The success of G-bits' products, particularly "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo," has been significantly influenced by a diverse user base, especially women under 30. This demographic has optimized the user acquisition model, leading to increased game revenue and profit margins [6]. - **Effectiveness of Overseas Strategy**: G-bits' overseas strategy, which had previously shown limited results, is now yielding positive outcomes. The company has strong products and over five years of overseas distribution experience, as evidenced by the success of "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" in regions like Hong Kong, Macau, and Japan [7]. - **Changes in Thunder Game's Strategy**: Thunder Game has shifted its focus and optimized its resources, concentrating its efforts on the SLG (Simulation Game) sector. This strategic adjustment is expected to lead to significant breakthroughs and provide new revenue growth opportunities for G-bits [8]. Additional Important Content - G-bits' performance in the second quarter has provided a stable foundation for the company's overall financial health, indicating a positive outlook for future quarters [2][3]. - The company's ability to adapt its marketing strategies to target specific user demographics has proven effective in enhancing revenue streams [6]. - The potential of the agency product "Jiu Mu Zhi Ye" could further diversify G-bits' offerings and contribute to its growth trajectory [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities expresses optimism about the gaming sector for the entire year, driven by improved earnings per share (EPS) adjustments, high market sentiment, and enhanced industry structure [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The gaming industry is expected to see a significant boost in Q3, particularly due to the summer revenue surge [1] - Upcoming game releases from major companies such as Tencent, Giant Network, G-bits, Xindong, and Perfect World are anticipated to contribute positively to the market [1] Group 2: Financial Outlook - The gaming sector has experienced cost savings this year, indicating potential for profit upgrades [1]