Audit, Interest Rate Risk Products; Gov't Program News; Home Builder Interview; Shutdown and Data Releases The stalemate & shutdown continue, all but eliminating the government release of economic news. Recall that the U.S. Treasury posted a $345 billion budget deficit in August, the largest monthly deficit of 2025 and the 2nd-worst August on record but helped by tariff revenue. This is up from July’s $291 billion deficit and has only been surpassed by last year’s $380 billion deficit. Government spending ...

Core Insights - The article focuses on analyzing Rithm Capital Corp.'s (RITM) recent performance compared to 17 mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) peers, highlighting key metrics such as investment composition, leverage, hedging coverage ratio, and economic returns [1][2][3]. Investment Composition and Performance - As of June 30, 2025, RITM's investment portfolio consisted of 20% fixed-rate agency MBS, 0% variable-rate agency MBS, 36% mortgage servicing rights (MSR), and 44% non-agency MBS and other mortgage-related investments [17][19]. - RITM's total MSR sub-portfolio had an unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $865 billion, reflecting a significant increase from $648 billion a year prior, largely due to acquisitions [37][38]. Leverage and Hedging - RITM's on-balance sheet leverage ratio was 2.5x, with an at-risk leverage ratio of 0.9x as of June 30, 2025, indicating a slight decrease in leverage compared to the previous quarter [19][20]. - The hedging coverage ratio for RITM was 44% as of June 30, 2025, which is geared towards lower mortgage interest rates, allowing the company to maintain stability in its book value (BV) during fluctuating interest rate environments [46][53]. Economic Returns - RITM achieved a trailing 24-month economic return of 20.97%, outperforming all covered mREIT peers, with the average returns for various classifications being significantly lower [51]. - The company's BV increased by 2.58% from Q1 to Q2 2025, driven by a minor increase in mortgage interest rates and a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, resulting in an economic return of 4.60% for Q2 2025 [20][21]. Valuation and Market Position - As of September 5, 2025, RITM's stock price was $12.62, trading at a 2.55% discount to the estimated current BV of $12.95, suggesting a slightly undervalued position compared to peers [48][49]. - RITM's diversified investment strategy, including MSR and other mortgage-related assets, positions it favorably to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns across various interest rate scenarios [56].

Focus of Article: The focus of PART 1 of this article is to analyze Rithm Capital Corp.’s (NYSE:RITM) recent results and compare several of the company’s metrics to 17 mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) peers. This analysis will show past and current data with supporting documentation. Table 1a will compare RITM’s investment composition, recent leverage, hedging coverage ratio, and change in investment portfolio size to the 17 mREIT peers. Table 1b will compare RITM’s BV, economic return (loss), ...

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) shares have increased by 10.3% in the first half of 2025, outperforming the industry growth of 5.1% and its peers AGNC Investment (7.6% growth) and Arbor Realty Trust (17.8% decline) [1][7]. Company Overview - Annaly is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily owns, manages, and finances a portfolio of real estate-related investment securities, utilizing a diversified capital allocation strategy to navigate market fluctuations [2][3]. Portfolio Composition & Strategy - Annaly's investment portfolio totals $89.5 billion as of June 30, 2025, with $79.5 billion in a highly liquid Agency portfolio, which helps lower volatility and interest rate sensitivity while generating attractive risk-adjusted returns [3][4]. - The company is focusing on acquiring newly originated mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) to enhance its MSR business, which tends to increase in value as interest rates rise, offsetting declines in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [5][10]. Financial Performance - Net interest income (NII) surged to $493.2 million in the first half of 2025, a significant increase from $47.1 million in the same period the previous year, driven by improving loan demand [7][18]. - Annaly's dividend yield stands at 13.6%, higher than the industry average of 12.5%, with a payout ratio of 99% [11][14]. Market Position & Outlook - The company has a strong liquidity position with $7.4 billion in total assets available for financing, including $4.7 billion in unencumbered Agency MBS, providing a competitive edge in adverse market conditions [15]. - Analysts have revised earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 upward, indicating a bullish outlook with expected year-over-year growth of 7% and 2.5%, respectively [21]. Valuation Metrics - Annaly is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-tangible book (P/TB) multiple of 1.07X, which is higher than the industry average of 1.01X, suggesting a premium valuation compared to peers [24].

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) reported second-quarter 2025 results with earnings exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate, demonstrating resilience amid tariff-related uncertainties and mortgage market volatility [1][4] - The company achieved a positive economic return of 0.7% for the seventh consecutive quarter, supported by its agency, residential credit, and mortgage servicing rights strategies [3] Financial Performance - The average yield on interest-earning assets was 5.42%, an increase from 5.17% in the prior-year quarter [1] - The average net interest spread rose to 1.47% from 1.24% year-over-year, while the net interest margin was 1.71%, up from 1.24% in the same quarter of 2024 [2] - Net interest income (NII) surged to $273.2 million in Q2 2025, compared to $53.6 million in the prior-year quarter [6] - Book value per share decreased to $18.45 as of June 30, 2025, down from $19.25 a year earlier [3] Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to a slight decline in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.74% as of July 24, 2025, down from 6.78% a year prior [5] - Housing affordability challenges are easing, contributing to increased loan demand, which positively impacted NLY's financials [6] Portfolio Strategy - Annaly's diversified capital allocation includes residential credit, mortgage servicing rights, and agency mortgage-backed securities, totaling an investment portfolio of $89.5 billion [8][10] - The company is focusing on acquiring newly originated mortgage servicing rights to enhance its MSR business, which tends to increase in value as interest rates rise [11] Dividend Profile - Annaly has a strong dividend yield of 13.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.4%, with a payout ratio of 99% [14][17] - The company raised its dividend by 7.7% in March 2025, reflecting confidence in its cash flow and growth prospects [17] Stock Performance - Over the past six months, Annaly shares have increased by 8.4%, outperforming the industry average of 2.8% and peers like AGNC Investment and Arbor Realty Trust [20][21] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates substantial year-over-year growth in sales of 463.4% for 2025 and 29.2% for 2026 [24] Investment Outlook - Annaly is positioned to deliver stable, risk-adjusted returns due to improving interest spreads, a diversified portfolio, and solid liquidity reserves [30] - The company is trading at a forward P/E multiple of 6.97X, lower than the industry average of 7.98X, suggesting an attractive valuation [31]

Financial Performance - The company's book value per share was $12.14 [6] - The comprehensive loss per share was $(2.13) [6] - Excluding the loss contingency accrual, the economic return on book value was (1.4)% [6] - Including the loss contingency accrual, the economic return on book value was (14.5)% [6] - The company declared a common stock dividend of $0.39 per share [6, 19] Portfolio Composition - The investment portfolio totaled $14.4 billion [6] - The economic debt-to-equity ratio was 7.0x [6] - The fair value of MSR (Mortgage Servicing Rights) was $3.016 billion [47] - The UPB (Unpaid Principal Balance) of the MSR portfolio was $200.363 billion [47] RoundPoint Operations - RoundPoint serviced UPB (Unpaid Principal Balance) was $204 billion [13] - Direct-to-consumer originations funded first lien loans of $48.6 million UPB [13] - Direct-to-consumer originations brokered second lien loans of $44.0 million UPB [13]

Core Viewpoint - Mr. Cooper Group reported disappointing earnings for Q2 2025, with both EPS and revenue falling short of analyst expectations despite operational gains in its mortgage servicing segment [1][5]. Financial Performance - Reported EPS was $3.04, missing the consensus estimate of $3.18 by $0.14 [2][5]. - Revenue for the quarter was $608 million, below the expected $674.24 million, missing by $66.24 million [2][5]. - Return on common equity (ROCE) improved to 15.9% [2][5]. - Tangible book value per share increased to $75.90, indicating growth in equity and balance sheet stability [5]. Operational Highlights - The servicing portfolio ended the quarter at $1,509 billion, a 25% increase year-over-year but slightly down from $1,514 billion in the previous quarter [6]. - The subservicing book remained nearly flat at $778 billion, while owned mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio dipped to $731 billion [6]. - Asset quality showed stability with 60+ day delinquency rates improving to 1.4% from 1.5% in the previous quarter [7]. Originations Segment - The originations segment saw pretax income rise to $64 million, up from $45 million in the prior quarter [8]. - Funded volume increased by 13.5% quarter-over-quarter to $9.44 billion, with direct-to-consumer originations at $2.6 billion and correspondent channel originations at $6.8 billion [9]. - The refinance recapture rate fell to 47% from 51%, indicating potential challenges in customer retention [9]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on strengthening its core mortgage servicing business, growing its subservicing segment, and enhancing originations through various channels [4]. - Technology investments are aimed at improving operational efficiency and customer focus [4]. - A planned merger with Rocket Companies is a significant forward-looking item, though specific financial targets or timelines were not provided [12]. Recent Developments - The company launched an MSR Fund with an initial commitment of $200 million after the quarter-end [11]. - No new regulatory or legal expenses were reported, and the company remains in good standing with regulators [10].

Mr. CooperGroup® 2Q'25 EARNINGS REVIEW July 23, 2025 IMPORTANT INFORMATION This presentation contains summarized information concerning Mr. Cooper Group Inc. ("Mr. Cooper" or the "Company") and the Company's business, operations, financial performance and trends. No representation is made that the information in this presentation is complete. For additional financial, statistical and business related information, as well as information reqarding business and segment trends, see the Company's most recent Ann ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2 2025, the company reported a net loss to common shareholders of $3 million, translating to a loss per share of $0.04, primarily due to fair value declines and a non-recurring tax adjustment of $14 million [2][11] - The book value per share as of June 30 was $15, a slight decrease from March 31 [2] - The company declared a common dividend of $0.40 per share for the second quarter [2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Credit Sensitive Strategies contributed $22 million to pretax income, while interest rate sensitive strategies reported a pretax loss of $5 million [11] - Gains from organically created Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) investments were $17 million, with $9 million from realized gains and $8 million from market-driven value changes [11] - The company completed three securitizations totaling $1.1 billion in UPB, retaining $71 million in new investments [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total correspondent loan acquisition volume was $30 billion in Q2, up 30% from the previous quarter [12] - PMT retained 17% of total conventional correspondent production in Q2, down from 21% in Q1 [13] - The weighted average coupon of mortgages underlying MSRs was 3.9%, indicating borrowers have little incentive to refinance [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to execute one securitization of agency eligible non-owner occupied loans per month and one jumbo loan securitization per quarter, focusing on leveraging organic investment creation abilities [5] - PMT's structure allows efficient capital deployment into long-term mortgage assets without the operational burdens of origination and servicing [3] - The company is positioned to continue growing its private label securitization market presence, having been a top three issuer of prime non-agency MBS [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating a volatile market by leveraging competitive advantages, including a diversified investment portfolio and strong risk management practices [10] - The company expects to maintain a stable dividend level of $0.40, supported by projected taxable income and investment strategies [40] - Management noted that realized losses are expected to remain limited due to the overall credit strength of consumers and substantial home equity accumulation [8] Other Important Information - The fair value of PMT's MSR asset at the end of the quarter was $3.8 billion, slightly down from March 31 [12] - Delinquency rates for the MSR portfolio remain low, attributed to strong consumer credit and home price appreciation [8] - The company issued $105 million in unsecured senior notes due in February 2030 [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on non-agency securitization opportunity and returns - Management noted that non-agency subordinate MBS experienced credit spread tightening despite rate volatility, with expected returns in the mid to low teens [18][19] Question: Retained interest on jumbo loans - The company retained a senior mezzanine tranche on the jumbo securitization, indicating a likely trend of retaining a greater portion of interest in future securitizations based on capital deployment [21][22] Question: Sustainability of the $0.40 dividend level - Management remains comfortable with the $0.40 dividend level, citing stability in taxable income and expected returns from investments [40]

Financial Performance - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) reported a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $3 million, resulting in a diluted EPS of $(004)[5] - The company declared a dividend per common share of $040[5] - Return on average common equity was (1)%[5] - Book value per share was $1500[5] Investment Strategies & Results - Credit sensitive strategies generated a pretax loss of $5 million, but pretax income excluding market driven value changes was $24 million[5] - Interest rate sensitive strategies generated a pretax income of $14 million, but pretax income excluding market driven value changes was $31 billion[5] - Correspondent production generated a pretax income of $22 million[5] - New investments in MSR totaled $44 million, with a fair value of MSR investments at $37 billion[5] - Net new investments in senior bonds from PMT securitizations were $66 million[5] - Net new investments in credit sub-bonds from PMT securitizations were $87 million, with a fair value of organically-created CRT investments at $10 billion[5]