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上美股份(02145):业绩超预期,新品蓄势待发
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit both increasing. The estimated revenue for H1 2025 is approximately 4.09 to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, while net profit is expected to be between 540 to 560 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [8]. - The main brand, Han Shu, solidified its foundation with significant growth driven by category and channel adjustments. In July, Han Shu's GMV on Douyin increased by 58%, benefiting from a shift towards self-operated sales channels [8]. - New product launches and high-end breakthroughs are opening new growth avenues. The New Page brand in the maternal and infant sector saw a GMV increase of 187% from January to July, while the hair care segment is also gaining traction [8]. - The company's strategy of multi-brand collaboration and channel optimization is yielding long-term advantages, focusing on core sectors and expanding product categories [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 4,191 million RMB - 2024: 6,793 million RMB - 2025E: 8,513 million RMB - 2026E: 10,466 million RMB - 2027E: 12,664 million RMB - The corresponding net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 461 million RMB - 2024: 781 million RMB - 2025E: 1,061 million RMB - 2026E: 1,364 million RMB - 2027E: 1,654 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 36% for 2025, 29% for 2026, and 21% for 2027 [7][9].