打造爆品已成为中国卖家借跨境电商平台出海谋求增长的敲门砖。 数据显示，2025年8月TikTok上爆品数量较去年同期增加了2.6倍。同时据贝哲斯咨询报告显示，2024全 球B2C电商市场达到了379693.83亿元（人民币），并预测未来5年复合增长率将达到9.05%，是同期线 下零售市场增速的2倍。显然，跨境电商爆品是驱动B2C零售市场增长的强劲动力之一。 然而，有爆品并不等于出海成功。平均来看，大多数爆品的生命周期是3-5个月，要想成为真正的全球 化品牌，需要让爆品转化为长效增长的生意。如何实现长效增长，是众多商家在"走出去"之后面临的新 问题。 寻找"复制爆款"的新市场 在新市场复制爆款，能带来最显而易见的业务增量。将爆品复制到新市场最重要的第一步，是跟随头部 平台发展的势能，选对市场。 SIINSIIN瞄准的是北美这个最大的单一市场。这个成立于2021年的年轻品牌，通过率先提出「Shaplite 轻塑」理念，自定义了「鲨鱼裤」这个新的服装品类，一举成为2022年服饰类增速TOP1品牌，并连续 三年靠鲨鱼裤、冰皮防晒等爆品，成为多个细分品类TOP1。带着持续打造爆品的自信，SIINSIIN选择 了同样有塑 ...

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is a pivotal year for Chinese beauty research, marked by significant international recognition and participation in top global platforms like IFSCC and EADV, showcasing the strength and innovation of Chinese brands in the beauty industry [2][14][19]. Group 1: Research Achievements - Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. and other partners presented research on skin physiological changes and skincare efficacy for post-menopausal Chinese women, highlighting the unique skin aging characteristics in this demographic [4][22]. - The study involved 60 healthy Chinese females aged 40-60, divided into groups based on menopausal status, measuring various skin parameters [5][6]. - Results indicated significant decreases in skin elasticity and increases in wrinkle depth for women over 5 years post-menopause, while skincare products showed improvements in elasticity, firmness, and reduced wrinkle appearance after 28 days of use [7][10][8]. Group 2: International Recognition - Chinese companies submitted a record number of research papers and presentations at the IFSCC conference, reflecting a collective rise in research capabilities, with China set to host the 2032 IFSCC conference [15][14]. - The EADV conference provided a platform for discussing sensitive skin care and anti-aging research, allowing Chinese brands to engage with global experts [14][16]. - As the only Chinese brand at these events, Shanghai Chicmax not only represented Chinese brands but also contributed to the global dialogue on skincare science [16][19]. Group 3: Strategic Significance - The participation in IFSCC and EADV signifies a shift for Chinese beauty brands from local players to international contributors, enhancing their global discourse power [16][17]. - The "2025 KANS Peptide Research and Efficacy Skincare Application Yearbook" was a notable output, detailing over 50 years of global peptide technology development and showcasing China's innovations in this field [19][21]. - The research outputs and collaborations with organizations like SGS demonstrate a commitment to establishing a comprehensive research framework that bridges local practices with global standards [27][31]. Group 4: Historical Context - The evolution of Chinese beauty culture dates back to ancient times, with significant developments in local formulations and techniques over the centuries [28]. - The modern era has seen Chinese brands like KANS (Shanghai Chicmax) transition from passive competition to active innovation, focusing on research and development to establish their own voice in the industry [29][31]. - The current landscape reflects a growing recognition of "C-beauty" as a formidable force in the global cosmetics industry, with companies increasingly prioritizing scientific research and innovation [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the beauty and personal care industry, highlighting the resilience of domestic brands and the impact of new consumption trends [2]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector experienced a robust recovery in H1 2025, with a retail sales growth of 2.9%, reversing the previous decline due to favorable consumption policies and improved income expectations [5][6]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with top local brands now competing closely with international counterparts, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences [10][11]. - The report categorizes companies into three groups based on performance: those with strong brand matrices benefiting from multi-brand strategies, those capitalizing on consumer trends like domestic brands and collagen products, and those showing signs of strategic improvement [20][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The beauty market is projected to grow steadily, with a forecasted retail sales decline of 1.1% in 2024, followed by a recovery in H2 2025 [5][6]. - The domestic market share is expected to increase, with local brands achieving significant breakthroughs in both skincare and makeup segments [10][11]. Company Performance - **Cosmetics Sector**: - Major companies like Up Beauty and Proya reported revenue growth of 17.3% and 7.2% respectively in H1 2025, with net profits increasing by 30.6% and 13.8% [20][21]. - Other notable performers include Marubi and Water Sheep, with revenue growth of 30.8% and 9.0% respectively [21][22]. - **Personal Care Sector**: - Companies like Ruibin and Zhenjia showed remarkable growth, with Ruibin's revenue increasing by 67.6% and Zhenjia's by 157.11% in H1 2025 [5][20]. - **Medical Aesthetics Sector**: - Companies like Aimeike and Langzi reported mixed results, with Aimeike's revenue declining by 21.6% while Langzi's net profit surged by 64.1% [20][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong brand matrices and low PE multiples, such as Up Beauty and Proya, as well as those benefiting from the Douyin traffic boost like Marubi and Water Sheep [20][24]. - It also suggests focusing on high-value segments and innovative products from brands like Ruibin and Furuida, and highlights opportunities in the maternal and infant sector with companies like Shengbeila and Haiziwang [20][24].

Summary of Shangmei Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is actively adjusting its channel structure, leading to rapid growth of the Han Shu brand on the Douyin platform, with a projected profit margin recovery to around 12% in the first half of 2025 and positive growth [2][5][6] - The company anticipates an annual growth rate exceeding 40% for the year [2][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Multi-Brand Strategy**: Shangmei is advancing a multi-brand strategy, launching high-end maternal and infant brand NewPage, expected to double its revenue to 800 million yuan this year, and the whitening product 聚光白, which has performed well since its launch [2][7][10] - **Growth Projections**: By 2026, Han Shu is expected to maintain over 20% growth, with a single brand market share projected to reach 12 to 15 billion yuan [2][8] - **Product Performance**: 聚光白 achieved profitability in its first month, with Douyin channel GMV surpassing 50 million yuan in August, and an annualized revenue forecast of 600 million yuan, with expectations to exceed 1 billion yuan in 2026 [2][9][10] - **Brand Positioning**: The Ji Fang brand, positioned in the hair care sector, has seen sales on Douyin exceed 20 million yuan post-adjustment, indicating strong performance in its niche [2][10] Additional Important Insights - **Management Changes**: Shangmei has shifted from a single management model to independent management by brand leaders, allowing for continuous expansion of its multi-brand matrix [3][11] - **Market Performance**: The Han Shu brand has shown strong alpha performance in the beauty industry, particularly on Douyin, maintaining the top sales position for 23 consecutive months since 2023, with a net profit margin exceeding 10% [4][5] - **Future Outlook**: The company is optimistic about the future of Han Shu and other new brands, planning to expand product categories and optimize product structure to further increase market share [8][11]

机构：中金公司 研究员：徐卓楠/黄蔓琪 公司动态 公司近况 我们近期组织上美股份业绩后NDR交流。公司主品牌韩束品类拓展顺利，持续拓宽人群覆盖；年中以 来多个小品牌模式跑通、快速起量，多品牌集团逻辑逐步兑现；长期看，人才及组织架构为构建平台型 化妆品集团提供底层支撑。我们看好公司中长期成长前景。 评论 1、主品牌韩束品类、功效拓展顺利，持续拓宽人群覆盖。韩束凭借多年沉淀的自有供应链及灵活高效 的线上运营能力，于大众价格带以质价比取胜，品牌可及空间广阔，多品类拓展顺利，Q3 进一步起 量：1H25 韩束抖音红白蛮腰系列合计占比下降至60%+，次抛占比提至约15%，男士/彩妆/洗护/身体护 理合计占比提至近10%；8 月次抛抖音月GMV进一步爬坡至超2 亿元，占比25%，洗护/身体护理/男士 合计占比提至超10%。 2、多个小品牌模式跑通、起量趋势亮眼，2H25 起多品牌集团逻辑逐步兑现。①一页：7-8 月线上GMV 延续翻倍增长；②安敏优：上半年品牌调整显效，年中以来显著提速，8 月抖音GMV提升至约2000 万 元；③极方：5 月发力推广以来逐月起量，8 月抖音GMV爬坡至近2000 万元；④聚光白：合作抖音 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Up Beauty Holdings (02145) has risen over 3%, reaching a new high of 102.5 HKD, driven by strong performance in the domestic beauty market, particularly for the brand Han Shu [1] Company Performance - Up Beauty Holdings' main brand Han Shu has achieved sales exceeding 700 million RMB in August, solidifying its leading position in the Douyin beauty market [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings forecast for the company for 2025-2027 by 1-5%, which is 3-8% higher than market expectations, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential [1] Market Outlook - The beauty industry in mainland China is experiencing rapid growth, and Up Beauty Holdings is expected to further increase its market share due to its multi-brand strategy, R&D capabilities, and enhanced brand value [1] - CICC's research report indicates that the company is successfully expanding its main brand and has seen multiple smaller brands gain traction, validating its multi-brand group strategy [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) rose over 3%, reaching a new high of 102.5 HKD since its listing, with a current price of 101.1 HKD and a trading volume of 92.94 million HKD [1] - In August, domestic beauty brands showed strong momentum in the Douyin beauty market, with Han Shu leading the market with sales exceeding 700 million HKD [1] - Morgan Stanley expects the group to enhance its market share due to its multi-brand portfolio, R&D capabilities, omnichannel strategy, and increasing brand value, with a positive long-term outlook for the company [1] Group 2 - CICC's research report highlighted successful category expansion for the main brand Han Shu and rapid growth of several small brands since mid-year, validating the multi-brand group strategy [1] - The company is seen as having a solid foundation for building a platform-based cosmetics group, supported by talent and organizational structure [1] - The long-term growth prospects of the company are viewed positively by CICC [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that CICC has raised the target price for Shangmei Holdings by 5% to HKD 111, maintaining an "outperform" rating based on the potential for new brand growth to boost medium to long-term prospects [1] - The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base [1] - Since mid-year, several small brands have rapidly gained traction, and the multi-brand group strategy is gradually being realized [1] - In the long term, talent and organizational structure provide foundational support for building a platform-based cosmetics group [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years, and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 111, indicating a 14% upside potential [1] Company Status - CICC recently organized a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Shumei Co., Ltd. The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base. Since mid-year, several small brand models have been successfully implemented and are rapidly gaining traction, validating the multi-brand group strategy. The company is expected to have strong long-term growth prospects due to its talent and organizational structure [2] Main Brand Expansion - Han Shu is leveraging its established supply chain and efficient online operations to succeed in the mass market with a strong price-performance ratio. The brand has a wide reach, and its product category expansion is progressing well. In Q3, the proportion of the Douyin Hongbai Mankui series decreased to over 60%, while the share of secondary products increased to about 15%. The combined share of men's, color cosmetics, hair care, and body care reached nearly 10%. In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin exceeded RMB 200 million, accounting for 25% [3] Small Brand Performance - Several small brand models are showing impressive growth trends, with online GMV continuing to double in July and August. Specific brands include: - Anminyou: Significant acceleration since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about RMB 20 million in August - Jifang: Monthly growth since May, with Douyin GMV nearing RMB 20 million in August - Juguangbai: Collaborated with top KOLs on Douyin, achieving over RMB 50 million in GMV and profitability in its first month - Nan Beauty: New products launched in early September - Bread Man: New products launched in early September [4] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure. Brand divisions enjoy high decision-making autonomy, and the company continues to attract top talent and implement effective incentive mechanisms. This establishes a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion of a multi-category and multi-brand matrix. The company is also actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily. CICC is optimistic about Shumei's long-term growth as a multi-brand and multi-category platform company [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years. The target price is raised by 5% to HKD 111, implying a 14% upside potential [1][2]. Group 2 - The company has successfully expanded its main brand, Han Shu, broadening its demographic reach. The brand's performance in Q3 shows a decrease in the proportion of its main product series to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to about 15% [3]. - Multiple small brand models have shown promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August. Brands like An Min You and Ji Fang have seen significant increases in GMV, with An Min You reaching approximately 20 million yuan in August [4]. - The company emphasizes a performance-driven organizational structure and talent support, which are crucial for its transition to a multi-brand, multi-category platform. The company is also actively expanding into Southeast Asia [5].