| 108.358 | | 上美股份[02145] 2025-12-31 12:00 | | | | | 5PMA = 10PMA = 20PMA = 30PMA = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 101.306 | | | | | | | | | | 94.254 | | | | | | | | | | 87.202 | | | | | | | | | | 80.150 | | | | | | | | | | 73.098 | | | | | | | | | | 66.046 | | | | | | | | | | 58.994 | | | | | | | | | | 51.942 | | | | | | | | | | 990万 | 成交单:1173116 | | | | | | | | | 742万 | | | | | | | | | | 495万 | | | | | | | | | | 247万 | | | | | | | | | | | 10-09 | 10-21 | 11-03 | 11-13 | 000 ...

截至目前，上美股份的年内涨幅超150%。 历经近期港股新消费回调行情之后，这样的涨幅表现可以说尤为突出，已经领先于港股"新消费三姐 妹"的泡泡玛特、蜜雪集团。 股价的曲线，最终映射的是市场共识，那么市场在看好上美股份什么？ 笔者注意到三个变化： 其一，今年以来，在韩束霸榜多份美妆榜单TOP1的同时，上美股份的第二梯队品牌势头迅猛，多个新 锐品牌在细分市场实现了突破。 其二，韩束的品类结构发生了变化，抖音美妆榜单显示其在10个细分品类销售GMV破亿，在男士护 肤、高端洗护、个护等新品类上实现突破。 其三，双11大促期间，上美股份旗下多个品牌在抖音、天猫、京东、快手等平台的增速数据均很亮眼， 呈现多渠道增长态势。 与此同时，newpage一页品牌已真正成长为核心增长极之一。 一页不仅展现出强劲的成长爆发力，而且实现了多品类、多渠道的均衡增长，以及高复购水平，揭示其 增长动力的质变，打开可持续的增长通道。 具体数据来看，一页上半年实现营收3.97亿元，同比大幅增长146.5%，双11大促期间全渠道总销售额同 比增长145%，在天猫、抖音、京东平台均实现显著增长，其中抖音平台销售额破亿，同比增幅高达 268%。 一页 ...

该行按照护肤、婴童护理、洗护三大板块对公司中长期成长空间进行测算，预计韩束3年有望破百亿， 多品牌快速增长： 护肤业务：近两年韩束依托抖音渠道爆发，市占率明显提升，2024年韩束营收增长超80%，25H1受达 播渠道收缩影响营收有所降速，但Q3线上GMV依旧强劲，根据久谦数据，2025年Q3韩束GMV同比增 长50%。韩束大众、中高端产品线齐头并进，3年维度营收有望破百亿，一叶子营收有望企稳加速。 婴童护理业务：一页品牌依托独特的"医研共创"模式正处于高速增长阶段，过去两年市占率快速提升， 一页凭借高端定位和差异化代言人享有竞争优势，预计未来三年复合增速超50%。红色小象自2023年转 型中大童市场后仍在调整，预计营收增速先降后升。 洗护业务：有望诞生大品牌。1）垂类赛道较多，定位清晰且善于建设消费者心智的品牌能够脱颖而 出，公司极方、2032等洗护品牌有望复刻韩束、一页等品牌的方法论。2）公司切入功效防脱等增速更 快的赛道，且行业集中度较高，有助于孵化大品牌。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，上美股份(02145)为我国美护行业领先企业，旗下拥有在护 肤、婴童护理、洗护等赛道的多品牌矩阵。公司以线上 ...

国金证券发布研报称，上美股份(02145)为我国美护行业领先企业，旗下拥有在护肤、婴童护理、洗护 等赛道的多品牌矩阵。公司以线上渠道为主，考虑到多品牌增长势能强劲，无论是韩束未来的发展以及 新品牌培育都具备较强的确定性，给予公司2025年PE30倍估值，目标价109.78港元，首次覆盖，给 予"买入"评级。 国金证券主要观点如下： 洗护业务：有望诞生大品牌。1)垂类赛道较多，定位清晰且善于建设消费者心智的品牌能够脱颖而出， 公司极方、2032等洗护品牌有望复刻韩束、一页等品牌的方法论。2)公司切入功效防脱等增速更快的赛 道，且行业集中度较高，有助于孵化大品牌。 盈利预测估值 复盘公司发展的历程，该行认为公司多品牌拓展方法论与运动龙头安踏体育有几个主要相似之处 1)市场化主导。公司旗下品牌定位精准，可以快速发掘消费者痛点，推出针对性产品的同时进行魄力营 销，绑定顶流IP，助力品牌快速破圈。主品牌韩束成功后将这一方法论推广到其他品牌。 2)渠道精细化运营趋势。随着内容电商成为化妆品消费的核心场景，公司以抖音为核心重构渠道战略， 通过创新营销玩法与提升自播比例等精细化运营，实现收入与利润的双高增长。 3)人才内部输 ...

Core Insights - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights the transition in the beauty industry from "functional consumption" to "composite efficacy + emotional consumption," indicating increased consumer resilience [1] - The beauty sector is diversifying its sales channels, moving away from reliance on a single traffic window, which is enhancing channel efficiency [1] - Leading brands are demonstrating stronger resilience, with a focus on companies with robust brand assets that can capitalize on channel and product cycles [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - During the Double 11 shopping festival (October 7 - November 11), total e-commerce sales reached 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [1] - The top five categories in e-commerce sales were home appliances, mobile digital products, clothing, beauty and personal care, and shoes/bags, with respective market shares of 16.5%, 14.6%, 14%, 8.2%, and 6.5% [1] - Beauty subcategories saw significant sales, with skincare products generating 991 billion yuan (+11.65%), hair care and cleaning products at 444 billion yuan (+13.54%), and perfumes and cosmetics at 334 billion yuan (+13.52%) [1] - Instant retail sales reached 670 billion yuan, showcasing a remarkable growth of 138.4% [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Tmall's beauty rankings show Proya leading for three consecutive years, followed by Estee Lauder, Lancôme, L'Oréal, and SkinCeuticals, indicating a stable top five [2] - Douyin's beauty rankings are led by Han Shu, with Proya, L'Oréal, Helena Rubinstein, and Gu Yu following, highlighting Douyin as a key platform for domestic beauty brands seeking growth [2] - The sales of composite efficacy skincare products accounted for 47.1% of the top 50 best-selling skincare items on Tmall, with anti-aging products being the most popular [2] - Brands like Han Shu and New Page reported significant sales growth across multiple channels, with New Page achieving a 145% increase in total sales [3] - The overall performance of leading brands like Proya and Weinuo demonstrated strong growth, reinforcing the notion of enhanced brand momentum in a stable market environment [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector is transitioning from "single functional consumption" to "composite efficacy + emotional consumption," indicating enhanced consumer resilience [4] - The beauty industry is no longer reliant on a single traffic window, with narratives around channel efficiency strengthening [4] - Leading brands exhibit stronger resilience, with a positive outlook on companies with robust brand assets that can capitalize on channel and product cycles [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Double 11 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [8] - Beauty and personal care sales reached 991 billion yuan, growing by 11.65% [8] - Instant retail sales surged to 670 billion yuan, marking a remarkable growth of 138.4% [8] Market Dynamics - Tmall leads in high-end beauty sales, while Douyin is becoming a significant platform for domestic brands [8] - The top five beauty brands on Tmall include Proya, Estée Lauder, Lancôme, L'Oréal, and SkinCeuticals, with Proya maintaining the top position for three consecutive years [8] - Douyin's beauty sales rankings show Han Shu at the top, followed by Proya and L'Oréal [8] Company Performance - Leading brands like Up Beauty, Ruo Yu Chen, and Mao Ge Ping have shown impressive performance during the Double 11 event [8] - Up Beauty's sales increased by 145% year-on-year, with significant growth on both Tmall and Douyin [8] - Ruo Yu Chen's sales saw a staggering 35-fold increase year-on-year, with Douyin sales growing by over 100% [8]

Company Dynamics - The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its audience coverage, with Q3 showing further growth in various categories [1] - The company has seen a decrease in the proportion of its main product series on Douyin to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to approximately 15%, and men's, color makeup, and body care products now account for nearly 10% [1] - In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin surpassed 200 million yuan, representing 25% of total sales, with body care and men's products exceeding 10% of total sales [1] Brand Performance - Multiple small brand models are showing promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August [2] - The Anminyou brand has significantly accelerated since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about 20 million yuan in August [2] - The Jifang brand has also seen monthly growth since its promotion began in May, with Douyin GMV nearing 20 million yuan in August [2] - The Juguangbai brand achieved over 50 million yuan in Douyin GMV in its first month of collaboration with top KOLs and is already profitable [2] - New products from NanBeauty and the launch of the children's cream from the Bread Superhero brand are also contributing to growth [2] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure that allows brand divisions high decision-making autonomy [2] - Continuous recruitment of top talent and effective incentive mechanisms are establishing a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion into a multi-brand and multi-category platform [2] - The company is actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 is maintained, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 31x for 2025 and 25x for 2026 [2] - The target price has been raised by 5% to 111 yuan, reflecting a P/E of 36x for 2025 and 29x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 14% [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years, and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 111, indicating a 14% upside potential [1] Company Status - CICC recently organized a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Shumei Co., Ltd. The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base. Since mid-year, several small brand models have been successfully implemented and are rapidly gaining traction, validating the multi-brand group strategy. The company is expected to have strong long-term growth prospects due to its talent and organizational structure [2] Main Brand Expansion - Han Shu is leveraging its established supply chain and efficient online operations to succeed in the mass market with a strong price-performance ratio. The brand has a wide reach, and its product category expansion is progressing well. In Q3, the proportion of the Douyin Hongbai Mankui series decreased to over 60%, while the share of secondary products increased to about 15%. The combined share of men's, color cosmetics, hair care, and body care reached nearly 10%. In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin exceeded RMB 200 million, accounting for 25% [3] Small Brand Performance - Several small brand models are showing impressive growth trends, with online GMV continuing to double in July and August. Specific brands include: - Anminyou: Significant acceleration since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about RMB 20 million in August - Jifang: Monthly growth since May, with Douyin GMV nearing RMB 20 million in August - Juguangbai: Collaborated with top KOLs on Douyin, achieving over RMB 50 million in GMV and profitability in its first month - Nan Beauty: New products launched in early September - Bread Man: New products launched in early September [4] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure. Brand divisions enjoy high decision-making autonomy, and the company continues to attract top talent and implement effective incentive mechanisms. This establishes a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion of a multi-category and multi-brand matrix. The company is also actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily. CICC is optimistic about Shumei's long-term growth as a multi-brand and multi-category platform company [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years. The target price is raised by 5% to HKD 111, implying a 14% upside potential [1][2]. Group 2 - The company has successfully expanded its main brand, Han Shu, broadening its demographic reach. The brand's performance in Q3 shows a decrease in the proportion of its main product series to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to about 15% [3]. - Multiple small brand models have shown promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August. Brands like An Min You and Ji Fang have seen significant increases in GMV, with An Min You reaching approximately 20 million yuan in August [4]. - The company emphasizes a performance-driven organizational structure and talent support, which are crucial for its transition to a multi-brand, multi-category platform. The company is also actively expanding into Southeast Asia [5].

Summary of Shangmei Group's Conference Call Company Overview - Shangmei Group's valuation has reached 30 times earnings, exceeding the historical average of 20 times, primarily due to market recognition of its multi-brand development strategy over the next 3-5 years [2][4][15] - The company has experienced significant growth phases since its listing, with a notable increase in valuation from 20 times to 30 times in 2025, driven by its long-term strategy [4][5] Key Points and Arguments Brand Performance - The Han Shu brand previously accounted for over 80% of sales on Douyin, but the company has strategically reduced its investment in direct broadcasting from 50% in 2024 to less than 20% in 2025, shifting focus to live streaming and product card malls [2][7][9] - Despite a short-term impact on GMV, this adjustment has alleviated pressure on profit margins, with GMV data recovering positively from March 2025 [7][9] - Han Shu's growth rate was significant in May and June 2025, maintaining over 50% growth even during the traditionally slower months of July and August [10] Future Growth Strategy - Shangmei Group aims to achieve sales of 20 billion yuan for the Han Shu brand by 2030, positioning it as the leading beauty brand in China through channel and product expansion [11] - The company is diversifying its product categories, with new products accounting for 30%-40% of total offerings, and establishing independent divisions for men's skincare and color cosmetics [8][12] Financial Projections - Expected revenue for 2025 is 8.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, corresponding to a current valuation of 30 times earnings; projections for 2026 indicate revenue of 14.3 billion yuan at a valuation of approximately 23-24 times [3][15] - The company has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with full-year profit estimates between 1.1 billion and 1.15 billion yuan [15] Emerging Brands - The Yi Ye brand, positioned as a mid-to-high-end domestic product for mothers and infants, has rapidly grown, with a gross margin exceeding 80% and a net margin of over 15%, expected to reach a scale of over 1.5 billion yuan with a net margin of 25% [2][13] - New brands launched in 2025, such as AMU and Ji Fang, have shown promising early performance, contributing to the company's long-term growth strategy [14] Additional Important Insights - The company has made significant adjustments to its channel strategy, focusing on emerging platforms like Kuaishou and traditional e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD, indicating a clear strategic direction despite reduced investment in direct broadcasting [9] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is a critical period for the Han Shu brand, where the company plans to leverage its marketing strategies to maximize market opportunities [16]