机构：中金公司 研究员：徐卓楠/黄蔓琪 公司动态 公司近况 我们近期组织上美股份业绩后NDR交流。公司主品牌韩束品类拓展顺利，持续拓宽人群覆盖；年中以 来多个小品牌模式跑通、快速起量，多品牌集团逻辑逐步兑现；长期看，人才及组织架构为构建平台型 化妆品集团提供底层支撑。我们看好公司中长期成长前景。 评论 1、主品牌韩束品类、功效拓展顺利，持续拓宽人群覆盖。韩束凭借多年沉淀的自有供应链及灵活高效 的线上运营能力，于大众价格带以质价比取胜，品牌可及空间广阔，多品类拓展顺利，Q3 进一步起 量：1H25 韩束抖音红白蛮腰系列合计占比下降至60%+，次抛占比提至约15%，男士/彩妆/洗护/身体护 理合计占比提至近10%；8 月次抛抖音月GMV进一步爬坡至超2 亿元，占比25%，洗护/身体护理/男士 合计占比提至超10%。 2、多个小品牌模式跑通、起量趋势亮眼，2H25 起多品牌集团逻辑逐步兑现。①一页：7-8 月线上GMV 延续翻倍增长；②安敏优：上半年品牌调整显效，年中以来显著提速，8 月抖音GMV提升至约2000 万 元；③极方：5 月发力推广以来逐月起量，8 月抖音GMV爬坡至近2000 万元；④聚光白：合作抖音 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years, and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 111, indicating a 14% upside potential [1] Company Status - CICC recently organized a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Shumei Co., Ltd. The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base. Since mid-year, several small brand models have been successfully implemented and are rapidly gaining traction, validating the multi-brand group strategy. The company is expected to have strong long-term growth prospects due to its talent and organizational structure [2] Main Brand Expansion - Han Shu is leveraging its established supply chain and efficient online operations to succeed in the mass market with a strong price-performance ratio. The brand has a wide reach, and its product category expansion is progressing well. In Q3, the proportion of the Douyin Hongbai Mankui series decreased to over 60%, while the share of secondary products increased to about 15%. The combined share of men's, color cosmetics, hair care, and body care reached nearly 10%. In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin exceeded RMB 200 million, accounting for 25% [3] Small Brand Performance - Several small brand models are showing impressive growth trends, with online GMV continuing to double in July and August. Specific brands include: - Anminyou: Significant acceleration since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about RMB 20 million in August - Jifang: Monthly growth since May, with Douyin GMV nearing RMB 20 million in August - Juguangbai: Collaborated with top KOLs on Douyin, achieving over RMB 50 million in GMV and profitability in its first month - Nan Beauty: New products launched in early September - Bread Man: New products launched in early September [4] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure. Brand divisions enjoy high decision-making autonomy, and the company continues to attract top talent and implement effective incentive mechanisms. This establishes a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion of a multi-category and multi-brand matrix. The company is also actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily. CICC is optimistic about Shumei's long-term growth as a multi-brand and multi-category platform company [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years. The target price is raised by 5% to HKD 111, implying a 14% upside potential [1][2]. Group 2 - The company has successfully expanded its main brand, Han Shu, broadening its demographic reach. The brand's performance in Q3 shows a decrease in the proportion of its main product series to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to about 15% [3]. - Multiple small brand models have shown promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August. Brands like An Min You and Ji Fang have seen significant increases in GMV, with An Min You reaching approximately 20 million yuan in August [4]. - The company emphasizes a performance-driven organizational structure and talent support, which are crucial for its transition to a multi-brand, multi-category platform. The company is also actively expanding into Southeast Asia [5].

Summary of Shangmei Group's Conference Call Company Overview - Shangmei Group's valuation has reached 30 times earnings, exceeding the historical average of 20 times, primarily due to market recognition of its multi-brand development strategy over the next 3-5 years [2][4][15] - The company has experienced significant growth phases since its listing, with a notable increase in valuation from 20 times to 30 times in 2025, driven by its long-term strategy [4][5] Key Points and Arguments Brand Performance - The Han Shu brand previously accounted for over 80% of sales on Douyin, but the company has strategically reduced its investment in direct broadcasting from 50% in 2024 to less than 20% in 2025, shifting focus to live streaming and product card malls [2][7][9] - Despite a short-term impact on GMV, this adjustment has alleviated pressure on profit margins, with GMV data recovering positively from March 2025 [7][9] - Han Shu's growth rate was significant in May and June 2025, maintaining over 50% growth even during the traditionally slower months of July and August [10] Future Growth Strategy - Shangmei Group aims to achieve sales of 20 billion yuan for the Han Shu brand by 2030, positioning it as the leading beauty brand in China through channel and product expansion [11] - The company is diversifying its product categories, with new products accounting for 30%-40% of total offerings, and establishing independent divisions for men's skincare and color cosmetics [8][12] Financial Projections - Expected revenue for 2025 is 8.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, corresponding to a current valuation of 30 times earnings; projections for 2026 indicate revenue of 14.3 billion yuan at a valuation of approximately 23-24 times [3][15] - The company has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with full-year profit estimates between 1.1 billion and 1.15 billion yuan [15] Emerging Brands - The Yi Ye brand, positioned as a mid-to-high-end domestic product for mothers and infants, has rapidly grown, with a gross margin exceeding 80% and a net margin of over 15%, expected to reach a scale of over 1.5 billion yuan with a net margin of 25% [2][13] - New brands launched in 2025, such as AMU and Ji Fang, have shown promising early performance, contributing to the company's long-term growth strategy [14] Additional Important Insights - The company has made significant adjustments to its channel strategy, focusing on emerging platforms like Kuaishou and traditional e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD, indicating a clear strategic direction despite reduced investment in direct broadcasting [9] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is a critical period for the Han Shu brand, where the company plans to leverage its marketing strategies to maximize market opportunities [16]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 30/23x for those years, and raises the target price by 8% to HKD 106, indicating a potential upside of 17% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's revenue reached CNY 4.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, aligning with the upper limit of the previous earnings forecast [1] - The net profit for 1H25 was CNY 560 million, up 34.7% year-on-year, also exceeding the prior forecast range [1] - The attributable net profit was CNY 520 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, meeting the expectations of the report [1] Group 2: Brand and Product Performance - The brand Han Shu achieved revenue of CNY 3.34 billion in 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with successful expansion across multiple product lines [2] - The brand Yipai saw a significant revenue increase of 146% year-on-year, reaching CNY 400 million, with strong sales of its star product [2] - The brand Hongse Xiaoxiang generated CNY 160 million in revenue, indicating initial success in its brand transformation [2] Group 3: Channel and Operational Efficiency - The company's gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 75.5% in 1H25, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 56.9% [3] - The increase in the proportion of lower-cost external sales channels contributed to the optimization of the sales expense ratio [3] - The attributable net profit margin rose by 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% in 1H25, reflecting improved profitability [3] Group 4: Future Growth Strategy - The company continues to expand its brand matrix, having launched new brands in May and August, with positive initial results [4] - Plans for 2H25 include launching new brands targeting specific markets, such as a maternal and infant IP brand and a professional makeup brand [4] - The company aims to follow a "2+2+2" strategy over the next three years, focusing on skincare, hair care, and maternal-infant products to build a diverse brand portfolio [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance for H1 2025, with revenue of 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year, falling within the upper range of previous forecasts [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - The multi-brand matrix continues to grow, with online revenue increasing by 20.1% year-on-year in H1 2025. By brand, revenue for 韩束, Newpage 一页, 红色小象, 一叶子, and other brands were 3.34 billion, 400 million, 160 million, 90 million, and 120 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +14.3%, +146.5%, -8.7%, -29.0%, and +2.9% [1]. - By channel, online and offline revenues were 3.81 billion and 270 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +20.1% and -10.6% [1]. - By segment, skincare, maternal and infant care, and other categories generated revenues of 3.42 billion, 560 million, and 130 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +10.2%, +65.0%, and +124.3% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%. The gross margin for H1 2025 was 75.5%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 63.2%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. Brand Performance - The main brand 韩束 showed steady growth, maintaining the top position in beauty brands on Douyin, with GMV growth of +15.5% on Douyin and +26.1% on Tmall. Star products like 红蛮腰 sold over 15 million units, and the X 肽 series generated over 200 million yuan in sales [2]. - The Newpage 一页 brand rapidly expanded, targeting skincare products for ages 0-18, with significant sales during the 618 shopping festival, achieving GMV growth of +190% on Douyin and +106% on Tmall [2]. Brand Portfolio Expansion - The company has a robust pipeline of brands across multiple segments, including a sensitive skin care brand in collaboration with 昆药集团, a high-end skincare brand 聚光白, and a high-end anti-aging brand TAZU. Additionally, it is preparing to launch IP co-branded products in maternal and infant care and new hair care and makeup brands [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.11 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 42.3%, 26.5%, and 24.8% respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to PE ratios of 30, 24, and 19 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, with a 17.3% increase in revenue and a 30.6% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating robust operational performance and market positioning [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 4.11 billion RMB and a net profit of 520 million RMB in the first half of 2025, with an EPS of 1.32 RMB [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 75.5%, while the expense ratio remained stable at 63.2% [2]. - Inventory increased by 7.2% year-on-year to 680 million RMB, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 5 days to 249 days [2]. - Operating net cash flow grew significantly by 77.5% to 390 million RMB [2]. Brand and Product Development - The main brand, Han Shu, maintained its leading position on the Douyin platform, ranking first among beauty brands and expanding its product line with new offerings [3]. - The company is actively pursuing a multi-brand strategy, launching new brands in various categories, including skincare, maternal and infant care, and cosmetics [3]. - New brands such as An Min You for sensitive skin and a high-end anti-aging brand TAZU are in development, alongside collaborations with well-known IPs for maternal and infant products [3]. Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its multi-brand strategy, which is anticipated to inject new growth momentum and enhance operational efficiency and profit margins [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted upward to 1.16 billion RMB, 1.47 billion RMB, and 1.83 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5][10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 at 2.71, 3.42, and 4.19 RMB respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [2][10] - The target price is set at 97.72 HKD, based on a 33x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [2][10] - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of the year, with revenue growth driven by its main brand, Han Shu, and the rapid expansion of its infant brand, Yi Ye [9][10] Financial Information Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 4,191 in 2023 to 12,350 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.6%, 62.1%, 24.7%, 22.3%, and 19.2% respectively [4][12] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 414 million RMB in 2023 to 1,739 million RMB in 2027, with significant growth rates of 308.5% in 2023 and 67.8% in 2024 [4][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 461 million RMB in 2023 to 1,669 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 213.5% in 2023 and 69.4% in 2024 [4][12] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 72.1% in 2023 to 76.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to increase from 11.0% to 13.5% over the same period [4][12] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong absolute performance, with a 165.8% increase over the past 12 months [6] - The stock price as of August 6, 2025, was 87.75 HKD, with a 52-week high of 90.9 HKD and a low of 28.84 HKD [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit both increasing. The estimated revenue for H1 2025 is approximately 4.09 to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, while net profit is expected to be between 540 to 560 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [8]. - The main brand, Han Shu, solidified its foundation with significant growth driven by category and channel adjustments. In July, Han Shu's GMV on Douyin increased by 58%, benefiting from a shift towards self-operated sales channels [8]. - New product launches and high-end breakthroughs are opening new growth avenues. The New Page brand in the maternal and infant sector saw a GMV increase of 187% from January to July, while the hair care segment is also gaining traction [8]. - The company's strategy of multi-brand collaboration and channel optimization is yielding long-term advantages, focusing on core sectors and expanding product categories [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 4,191 million RMB - 2024: 6,793 million RMB - 2025E: 8,513 million RMB - 2026E: 10,466 million RMB - 2027E: 12,664 million RMB - The corresponding net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 461 million RMB - 2024: 781 million RMB - 2025E: 1,061 million RMB - 2026E: 1,364 million RMB - 2027E: 1,654 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 36% for 2025, 29% for 2026, and 21% for 2027 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 100.00 [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with projected revenue between RMB 4.09 billion and RMB 4.11 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% to 17.3%. Net profit is anticipated to be around RMB 540 million to RMB 560 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [5][6] - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily driven by the multi-category layout of the Han Shu brand and substantial growth in the Newpage brand, which focuses on infant skincare [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantage in its price segment and expand its product categories, leveraging its multi-brand matrix for new opportunities [5][8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 6,793 million (+62.08%) - 2025E: RMB 8,502 million (+25.16%) - 2026E: RMB 10,422 million (+22.59%) - 2027E: RMB 12,668 million (+21.55%) [4] - Net profit projections are: - 2024: RMB 781.21 million (+69.42%) - 2025E: RMB 1,020 million (+30.53%) - 2026E: RMB 1,283 million (+25.86%) - 2027E: RMB 1,559 million (+21.51%) [4] - The expected EPS for the upcoming years is: - 2024: RMB 1.96 - 2025E: RMB 2.56 - 2026E: RMB 3.22 - 2027E: RMB 3.92 [4] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Han Shu's online GMV reached RMB 5.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, ranking fourth among domestic brands [6] - The brand's performance on the Douyin platform showed a significant increase in GMV, achieving RMB 456 million in July 2025, a year-on-year growth of 68.7% [6] - The Newpage brand also demonstrated strong growth, with GMV of RMB 341 million in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128% [6][8]