南方财经11月19日电，中信证券食品饮料行业2026年投资策略研报称，2025年大众品板块需求弱势延 续，行业经历量价齐跌。2026年，对于大众品需求端持有谨慎乐观的观点，中信证券认为绝大部分大众 品行业需求经历了连续2年量价齐跌，同时渠道端库存基本完成挤水分而逐步恢复至良性健康水平，同 时结合2025年三季度大众品需求环比企稳趋势以及考虑到2026年是消费大年（2026年春节备货和2027年 春节备货绝大部分都将反映在2026年），看好大众品2026年行业终端需求量同比企稳。不过考虑到需求 依然偏弱、性价比消费趋势不改，2026年大众品终端价格同比或仍略有压力，但考虑到行业竞争程度边 际没有加剧，价格跌幅有望较2025年明显收窄。基于基本面触底判断，建议关注过去2~3年股价调整幅 度大、静态估值处于历史底部，有望受益内需触底带来业绩和估值双升的乳品板块和餐供板块。 ...

Core Insights - There is a noticeable trend of foreign dining brands selling their stakes in China, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3][20] - The Chinese dining market is characterized by its vast scale and a rapidly growing consumer base, with projected dining revenue exceeding 5.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Local brands are gaining a competitive edge due to a complete supply chain and cost advantages, allowing them to thrive in a price-sensitive market [5][7] Company Developments - Starbucks has entered a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to form a joint venture for its retail operations in China, with Boyu holding up to 60% and Starbucks retaining 40% [1] - CPE Yuanfeng has partnered with Burger King to establish a joint venture, with CPE holding approximately 83% of the new entity [1] - Citic Capital has acquired a significant stake in McDonald's China, positioning it as the second-largest shareholder [1] Market Dynamics - The Chinese market's unique characteristics have led to a shift in strategies for foreign brands, as they adapt to local consumer preferences and competitive pressures [3][11] - Local brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi are rapidly expanding, with Luckin reporting a 47.1% year-on-year revenue increase to 12.36 billion yuan in Q2, while Starbucks' revenue grew by only 8% to approximately 56.26 billion yuan [8] - The average transaction price for Starbucks is significantly higher than that of local competitors, with Starbucks at 35.86 yuan compared to Luckin's 14.28 yuan and Kudi's 9.9 yuan [7] Strategic Shifts - Starbucks is increasingly decentralizing its operations in China, allowing local teams more autonomy, which has led to a 6% revenue increase in its latest fiscal quarter [12][13] - The decision to sell a majority stake in its Chinese operations is seen as a strategic move to secure a stable revenue source, with the total value of Starbucks' Chinese retail business estimated to exceed 13 billion USD [13][14] - Future plans for Starbucks include expanding its store count to 20,000 locations, which poses challenges in terms of pricing and operational adjustments [16][18]

答案是外卖工服。 众所周知，冲锋衣近两年风头无两，不仅深受年轻人喜爱，也是品牌和资本的宠儿。 谁能威胁到冲锋衣的江湖地位？ 然而今年冬天，冲锋衣的锋芒却被外卖工服抢走几分。 仅从颜色上看，各家外卖平台五花八门，美团黄、饿了么蓝、京东红争奇斗艳，江湖人称：已经没什么颜色留给冲锋衣品牌了。 尤其是淘宝闪购更新皮肤后，酷似迈凯伦赛车服的工装，让无数年轻人倒戈：过去怕和外卖员撞衫，如今主动注册外卖员账号，只为拥有同款工装。 事实上，冲锋衣除了在颜色和造型上阵地失守，其最核心的功能阵地也被外卖服占领。 在社交平台上，户外运动还是滑雪运动的帖子中，用外卖工服平替冲锋衣和滑雪服的人越来越多。网红打卡点哈巴雪山上刷屏的，除了三大外卖平台工服 的爱好者还有麦门信徒。 除此之外，爬山、户外徒步等野外活动，也是外卖服出现的高频场景。 几十块钱的外卖服，凭什么能抢始祖鸟的风头？ 外卖巨头"比美现场"，打工人直呼真香 中国外卖平台，堪称最全能的神秘组织。 他们旗下外卖员无所不能，炒菜、修车、弹钢琴样样精通。招揽这些牛人的平台，更是无缝链接三百六十行。 最近，运动系潮牌这条路也被巨头闯进来了。 不知从何时起，外卖和快递平台悄悄掀起了一场 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.782 billion RMB for Q1-Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 755 million RMB, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year [1][6] - The company is experiencing pressure on revenue per available room (RP), but the decline is narrowing compared to the previous quarter, indicating resilience in the hotel operations [2][3] - The company is focusing on long-term growth by transforming its core brand to appeal to younger consumers and enhancing product offerings, which is expected to revitalize its growth trajectory [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 2.121 billion RMB, down 1.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 358 million RMB, down 2.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was 340 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with a net profit margin of 16.0%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] Market Performance - The overall RP for the company in Q3 was 191 RMB, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, while the average daily rate (ADR) was 259 RMB, down 2.0% year-on-year [2] - The occupancy rate (OCC) stood at 73.6%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Expansion and Store Management - As of Q3, the company had a total of 7,501 stores, with economic and mid-to-high-end hotels accounting for 26.9% and 29.6% of the total, respectively [3] - The company opened 387 new stores in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a net addition of 233 stores, down 14.7% year-on-year [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for the company has been adjusted to 858 million RMB, 980 million RMB, and 1.094 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 17.07 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22.2 times for 2025 [4]

Core Insights - The emergence of new chain brands in the bulk liquor market, such as "Tang Sanliang", "Zebra Hero", and "Panda Liquor", reflects a shift towards diversified and convenient consumption patterns in the liquor industry [1][5] - The bulk liquor market is experiencing rapid growth, with an estimated market size of 800 billion yuan in 2024, projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, particularly in the mid-to-high-end segment priced between 50-200 yuan per jin, which is growing at 25% [3][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The trend towards value-for-money has become a key factor influencing consumer decisions, prompting many well-known liquor companies to adjust their product structures and focus on affordable offerings [3][5] - New brands are rapidly expanding their presence, with over a thousand stores established by brands like Bailaoquan and Anning Shaojiu, alongside new entrants like "Tang Sanliang" and "Zebra Hero" [7][8] Group 2: New Store Formats - New-style liquor stores are characterized by modern designs and a wide variety of products, including over 120 SKUs that cater to diverse consumer tastes, enhancing the shopping experience [7][8] - These stores are strategically located within three kilometers of communities and utilize digital tools for instant consumer engagement, making purchasing more convenient [7][8] Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges - The bulk liquor market is predicted to continue its expansion into lower-tier cities, aligning with consumer preferences for quality and price [9] - Challenges include homogenization of products and marketing strategies, which may lead to consumer fatigue and price wars that could compress profit margins [9] - The lack of industry standards poses risks to product quality, with potential reliance on inferior materials affecting consumer experience [9]

Core Viewpoint - A rising trend of "self-sufficient" clothing among young people is emerging, where they prefer to select fabrics and customize their clothing, significantly reducing costs compared to ready-made garments [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior Shift - The "Tao Bu" (fabric hunting) trend represents a consumer awakening, with young people shifting focus from brand prestige to cost-effectiveness and practicality [3][8]. - Young consumers are redefining "value" by prioritizing practical benefits over brand allure, leading to a new trend of frugality [3][8]. Group 2: Personalization and Creativity - The appeal of "Tao Bu" lies not only in cost savings but also in the ability to express individuality and achieve a sense of accomplishment through personalized clothing [3][5]. - Young people are increasingly becoming the "curators" of their wardrobes, incorporating unique designs and features into their custom-made garments [3][5]. Group 3: Social Media Influence - Topics related to "Tao Bu" have gained significant traction on social media platforms, with millions of views on tutorials and guides that help young people create unique wardrobes on a budget [5][8]. - The phenomenon reflects a deeper value change among young consumers, where the ability to create is becoming a new social currency, overshadowing traditional markers of identity based on ownership [5][8]. Group 4: E-commerce Trends - Data indicates that consumer behavior during events like "Double Eleven" is evolving towards more rational, quality-focused, and personalized purchasing decisions [8]. - Young consumers are increasingly opting for practical solutions, as evidenced by their engagement in both online and offline fabric selection and design processes [8].

Core Insights - The stock of Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) rose over 6% during trading, currently up 4.61% at HKD 92.95, with a trading volume of HKD 13.95 million [1] Industry Performance - Domestic brands have shown strong performance on the Douyin platform during the Double 11 shopping festival, with their competitiveness continuing to enhance [1] - The number of domestic brands entering the top 5 beauty and skincare rankings is expected to increase from 2 to 4 between 2023 and 2025 [1] - Brands such as Han Shu and Proya have maintained their positions in the top two for three consecutive years, with Han Shu winning the top spot for two years in a row [1] Brand Strategy - On October 13, Han Shu announced Wang Jiaer as its global brand ambassador, leveraging his global fan base and high-end image [1] - Wang Jiaer's previous collaborations with international brands like Armani highlight Han Shu's brand potential [1] - The Double 11 promotional strategy is focused on profitability and core products, indicating a robust approach to market competition [1] Company Strategy - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the company's strategic implementation is showing continuous results, with increased investment in R&D while focusing on core sectors [1] - The company is upgrading its channel structure, diversifying product categories, and precisely positioning new brands to benefit from the rise of domestic products and the trend of cost-effective consumption [1] - The company is also tapping into growth opportunities in mid-to-high-end and niche markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic brand Up Beauty (上美股份) has shown strong performance during the Double 11 shopping festival on Douyin, with its stock price increasing by over 6% during trading, reflecting a growing competitive edge in the beauty and skincare market [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Up Beauty's stock price rose by 4.61% to HKD 92.95, with a trading volume of HKD 13.95 million [1] - The company has seen an increase in the number of domestic brands entering the top 5 beauty and skincare rankings on Douyin, from 2 to 4 brands between 2023 and 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The domestic brand Han Shu (韩束) has maintained its position as the top brand for three consecutive years, with a strong performance in the Double 11 sales event [1] - The brand has recently appointed international star Wang Jiaer as its global ambassador, which is expected to enhance its high-end image and international presence [1] Group 3: Strategic Insights - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the collaboration with Wang Jiaer is expected to leverage his global fan base and previous associations with high-end brands like Armani, thereby boosting Han Shu's brand potential [1] - The company's strategy during the Double 11 event focuses on profitability and core products, with ongoing investments in research and development, channel upgrades, and diversification of product categories [1]

Core Insights - The announcement of Jackson Wang as the global brand ambassador enhances the international positioning of the brand, leveraging his strong global fanbase and previous collaborations with high-end brands like Armani [1] - The company has a robust strategy for the Double Eleven sales event, focusing on profit and core products, with significant sales driven by collaborations with popular influencers [1][2] - The company is building a strong competitive moat through brand establishment, talent acquisition, resource procurement, and supply chain capabilities, aiming for long-term growth [2] Brand and Market Strategy - The company has optimized its product structure, achieving an online GMV of 4.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with significant sales from various product lines [2] - Plans for launching three new brands in 2025 and expanding into multiple categories and IP brands are in place, supporting a revenue target of 30 billion yuan by 2030 [2] - The company is pursuing a global expansion strategy, with initial investments of 300 million yuan in Southeast Asia and plans to enter North America and Europe [2] Financial Projections - The company expects a steady increase in net profit, projecting 1.149 billion yuan, 1.496 billion yuan, and 1.806 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 25, and 21 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is building long-term advantages through multi-brand synergy, channel optimization, and increased R&D investment, with strategic implementation showing continuous results [1] Group 1: Brand Strategy and Global Expansion - The company announced Jackson Wang as the global brand ambassador, enhancing its high-end image and international presence [2] - The company has signed popular stars like Ding Yuxi and Tian Xunying, with Tian's first-day sales reaching 50-60 million, indicating strong consumer purchasing power [2] Group 2: Sales Strategy and Product Focus - The company is focusing on profit and core products during the Double Eleven sales event, promoting the X Peptide high-end series and the Hongyun makeup series [3] - The X Peptide series benefits from Jackson Wang's endorsement, while the Hongyun series aligns with the festive season, potentially boosting the makeup segment [3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong brand presence and consumer loyalty through extensive marketing during the "big screen exposure era" [4] - The organization employs a "top-tier talent" strategy, attracting high-level professionals and enabling quick responses to online sales platform changes [4] - The company has significant sales volume, enhancing its negotiation power compared to smaller brands, and maintains high gross margins through vertical integration and cost control [4] Group 4: Long-term Growth Strategy - The company achieved an online GMV of 4.5 billion in the first half of 2025, with multiple products exceeding 100 million in sales [5] - Three new brands are set to launch in 2025, with positive performance from skincare and makeup brands, supporting a revenue target of 30 billion by 2030 [5] - The company is expanding globally, with a 300 million investment in Southeast Asia and plans for further expansion into North America and Europe [5]