报告概要 01 整体消费趋势：从"报复性增长"转向"平稳务实" ⦁ 2025年消费市场整体趋稳，41.5%的受访者表示消费支出与去年持平，这是近三年来"基本没变化"占比首次成为主流。此前2023年超半数人消费增加，如 今"报复性消费"热潮已退，人们进入更平稳的消费节奏。 ⦁ 95后是消费意愿最强的群体，44%的人花得比去年多，消费净增长值（增加比例减去减少比例）领跑所有年龄段。相比之下，80后成为唯一消费净增长为 负的群体，年龄越大消费越谨慎。 ⦁ 收入变化直接决定消费行为：收入增加的人群中，近三分之二选择多花钱；收入减少的人群中，超半数削减开支。有钱就花、没钱就省，成为最朴素的消 费逻辑。 02 消费流向与决策逻辑的十一大发现 ⦁ 发现1：体验型消费持续走热，户外取代室内娱乐。 约四成受访者为旅游和户外活动增加开支，旅游消费净值高达26.4个百分点。而KTV、剧本杀等室内 社交娱乐业态明显萎缩，净值分别为-11.4和-9.9个百分点。 ⦁ 发现2："保命主义"成为消费刚需。 食品饮料、服装鞋包、营养保健品是消费净增长最高的三大品类。保健品不再只是中老年专属，各年龄段年轻人均将 其视为"新刚需"，双11期间天 ...

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 25 日 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业联席首席研究 员 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 基础化工：美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 2026 年 2 月 18 日，特朗普政府援引《国防生产法》发布行政令，正式将磷 元素与草甘膦除草剂列为美国战略资源，以保障国内供应链安全。全球近几 年 80%的磷资源下游用于磷肥，草甘膦由于转基因抗性种子需求成为全球第 一大除草剂，二者是全球农资的核心环节。据 USGS，2025 年美国磷矿石 进口依存度 16%，主要来自秘鲁及摩洛哥。美国草甘膦本土产能充足，但考 虑厂商到对欧洲及南美的供应，仍需进口中国产草甘膦。相对而言，中国磷 矿石自给率较高，而草甘膦净出口且产能略过剩。我们认为，磷系农资列入 战略物资因美国对二者供应稳定性的强调，短期在粮价低迷需求不振背景 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer sector, particularly highlighting the potential in experience and emotional consumption, domestic travel, and AI technology products [7]. Core Insights - The report indicates a strong recovery in consumer spending during the Spring Festival, with key retail and catering enterprises showing an average daily sales increase of 8.6% compared to the same period last year [10]. - The report emphasizes the growth in experience consumption driven by travel and leisure activities, with significant increases in hotel occupancy and average daily rates during the holiday period [27]. - The report identifies structural opportunities in the market, particularly in AI technology consumption, emotional value products, and the rise of domestic brands [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Consumption - Retail sales during the Spring Festival showed a notable recovery, with a 8.6% increase in daily sales compared to the previous year, driven by improved consumer sentiment and a more active lower-tier market [10][12]. - Specific regions such as Hubei (+12%), Guangxi (+15%), and Nanjing (+17%) experienced rapid growth in consumption [2]. Domestic Travel - The report highlights a record high in cross-regional travel during the Spring Festival, with an estimated 3.1 billion daily movements, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year increase [14]. - Key tourist destinations saw significant visitor numbers, with hotels experiencing a rise in both occupancy rates and average daily rates, indicating a robust recovery in the hospitality sector [27][19]. Experience Consumption - Experience consumption, particularly in travel and dining, has rebounded strongly, with restaurants like Haidilao reporting a 10% increase in customer flow during the holiday [33]. - Emotional consumption products, such as toys and scented items, gained popularity, with sales of pet clothing increasing by 116% during the holiday season [11]. AI Technology Consumption - The report notes a surge in sales of smart wearable devices, with a 19.7% increase in sales, and smart glasses seeing a growth of 250% [11]. - The introduction of new products under the "old for new" policy is expected to drive further growth in the AI technology sector [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Pop Mart, Haidilao, and Midea Group, focusing on emotional and experience consumption, domestic brand growth, and AI technology [5].

Company Overview - Chongqing Dengkang Oral Care Products Co., Ltd. has a history of 87 years, evolving from a local toothpaste factory to a publicly listed company, establishing a strong foundation for its core competitiveness through technological accumulation and brand trust [2][3][4]. Core Competitiveness - The company’s core competitiveness is built on three pillars: 1. **Technological Accumulation**: Leading R&D capabilities with a focus on continuous innovation in oral care products [3][4]. 2. **Brand Trust**: The flagship brand "Ling Suan Ling" holds over 60% market share in the sensitive toothpaste segment, establishing deep emotional connections with consumers [3][4]. 3. **Strategic Resilience**: The company has successfully navigated various economic phases, maintaining a focus on oral health and achieving a successful IPO in 2023 [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 1.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, with a gross margin of 49.4% [16][17]. - The net profit growth outpaced revenue growth, driven by product structure upgrades and channel optimization, with high-margin e-commerce revenue accounting for 31% of total income [17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to achieve a doubling of revenue and profit during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on four key areas: oral care, oral medical, smart oral, and innovative business [24]. - The "8462" leap action plan will guide the company’s strategic initiatives, emphasizing collaboration across these sectors to enhance overall competitiveness [24]. Product Development and Innovation - The company has established a robust product matrix with multiple brands, including "Ling Suan Ling" for adults and "Bei Le Le" for children, addressing diverse market segments [12][21]. - Innovative products such as dual-action desensitizing agents and smart oral care devices are being developed, with a focus on user needs and technological advancements [14][22]. Digital Transformation - The "Smart Dengkang" platform integrates marketing, R&D, and production, enhancing operational efficiency and long-term competitiveness through data-driven decision-making [25][26]. - The company is leveraging digital tools to optimize product development cycles and improve customer engagement through personalized marketing strategies [25][26]. Social Responsibility and Future Outlook - Dengkang is committed to promoting oral health awareness and has plans to integrate social responsibility into its business model, aiming to ensure that citizens maintain at least 20 healthy teeth by the age of 80 [26]. - The company is focused on expanding its presence in the oral healthcare market while maintaining a balance between high-end and cost-effective products to cater to diverse consumer needs [23][26].

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step towards global market expansion as the first "A+H" functional beverage company in China [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Journey - The partnership between Dongpeng Beverage and Jiahua Capital spans 10 years, characterized by deep support and mutual trust, highlighting a journey of "long-term value co-creation" [4][20]. - Jiahua Capital's initial investment of 350 million yuan was pivotal for Dongpeng during a critical growth phase, leading to its current market valuation exceeding 150 billion HKD [4][17]. - The recent H-share listing involved Jiahua Capital increasing its investment to support Dongpeng's global ambitions, emphasizing the company's underestimated potential [5][21]. Group 2: Market Context and Strategy - In 2017, the Chinese functional beverage market faced significant challenges, with leading brands like Red Bull embroiled in trademark disputes, creating opportunities for local brands like Dongpeng [6][7]. - Dongpeng's strategic investment in 2017 was driven by its unique value proposition across three dimensions: people, model, and market [7][10]. - The founder, Lin Muqin, embodies a pragmatic and innovative entrepreneurial spirit, which has been crucial in navigating the company's transformation from a regional player to a national brand [9][10]. Group 3: Growth and Innovation - Dongpeng's growth narrative over the past decade is marked by strategic focus, channel development, and digital innovation, transitioning from a regional brand to an industry leader [12][19]. - The introduction of the 500ml Dongpeng Special Drink targeted high-consumption demographics, such as blue-collar workers and long-distance drivers, addressing real consumer needs [13][14]. - The company has implemented a digital system for real-time sales tracking and inventory management, enhancing marketing efficiency and transforming traditional growth models [16][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Dongpeng aims to expand its global footprint, aspiring to become a comprehensive beverage group akin to Coca-Cola and Suntory, with products already in over 30 countries [22][23]. - The recent capital raised from the H-share listing will be allocated to enhance global production capacity and supply chain upgrades, facilitating a transition from product export to enterprise globalization [22][25]. - Jiahua Capital plans to continue supporting Dongpeng and seeks to identify other Chinese consumer companies with strong supply chain capabilities and clear brand positioning for global expansion [23][25].

Core Insights - iiMedia Research released the "Top 500 Chinese Consumer Brands" list for 2025, with Beingmate (002570) ranking 223rd, highlighting its market influence and consumer recognition in the mother and baby products sector [1] - Beingmate's strategy of "full category + high efficiency" has demonstrated resilience in a shrinking competitive landscape, serving as a model for domestic brands transitioning from scale to value [1] Business Strategy - Beingmate's growth is driven by a dual approach of deepening core categories and expanding into new markets, maintaining a top-four market share in domestic milk powder through differentiated product lines [2] - The company reported a 111.09% year-on-year increase in revenue from rice cereal, with over 50% of its product revenue coming from diapers, and new products like medical-grade wipes achieving significant sales on platforms like Douyin and Pinduoduo [2] - Beingmate's "only earn 5%" profit strategy addresses long-standing pricing issues in the industry, optimizing supply chains and enhancing channel efficiency to control costs while passing savings to consumers [2] Market Trends - The shift in domestic consumption from "emotion-driven" to "quality-driven" is exemplified by Beingmate's inclusion in the list, emphasizing the need for domestic brands to compete based on strength [3] - With plans to further develop specialized medical foods and adult nutrition, Beingmate aims to enhance its full-category matrix, contributing to the high-quality development of the mother and baby industry and the broader domestic market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The beauty industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by product innovation and the rise of domestic brands, with Douyin's beauty GMV projected to grow over 20% year-on-year in January 2026, reflecting a marginal improvement during the off-season due to brand efforts in daily sales and self-broadcasting, alongside the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1][2]. Group 1: Strong Product and Brand Momentum - Companies with strong product and brand momentum are expected to achieve high growth through new product launches and category expansions, such as Ruoyuchen, which is focusing on high-end household cleaning and health products [3]. - Beijiaojie is maintaining stable performance in oral care and is expected to benefit from the trend of AKK ingredients in its probiotic raw material business [3]. - Maogeping is positioned as a high-end brand with ongoing expansion in offline counters and online sales, anticipating rapid growth across multiple product lines [3]. - Linqingxuan is benefiting from the trend of oil-based skincare, with its flagship essence oil performing well and new products showing promise [3]. - Shangmei Co. is expanding its main brand Han Shu and sub-brands, with strong growth expected from key products [3]. Group 2: Leading Brands with Strong Asset Value - Beitanie has been actively adjusting its channel and inventory mechanisms since 2025, leading to product structure upgrades and profit recovery, with strong GMV growth in January 2026 [4]. - Proya is expected to have a clear new product strategy in 2026, launching several key products and expanding its sub-brands to drive steady growth [4]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong fundamentals and high growth potential recommended for increased holdings include Ruoyuchen, Beijiaojie, Maogeping, Linqingxuan, and Shangmei Co. [5]. - Companies showing signs of bottom improvement include Beitanie, Proya, Dengkang Oral, Shanghai Jahwa, and Runben Co. [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the cosmetics industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [5]. Core Insights - The beauty industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by product innovation and the rising trend of domestic brands. The report suggests a bottom-up selection of high-growth products and brands with strong potential, as well as companies that exhibit resilience amid product and channel changes [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the cosmetics sales during the off-peak season have shown marginal improvement. It suggests focusing on products and brands with strong growth momentum and resilience in the face of changing product and channel dynamics [2]. Key Investment Points - The report identifies two main lines of investment: 1. **High-Growth Companies**: Companies like RuYuchen, BeiJiaJie, MaoGePing, LinQingXuan, and ShangMei are expected to perform well due to strong fundamentals and product innovation [5]. 2. **Brands with Strong Asset Value**: Companies such as BeiTaiNi and PoLaiYa are anticipated to see marginal improvements following adjustments in their channels and product structures [5]. Market Performance - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the retail sales of cosmetics in December 2025 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall retail growth of 0.9%. The annual retail sales for cosmetics in 2025 reached 465.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [5]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E. For instance, RuYuchen has an EPS of 0.59 yuan for 2025E with a PE of 60, while BeiTaiNi has an EPS of 1.10 yuan for 2025E with a PE of 43 [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the new consumption sector performed well, with service consumption policies expected to continue catalyzing growth in 2026 [2][27] - In 2025, the overall performance of the optional consumption sector was weak, but sub-sectors like new consumption showed significant gains, particularly in the first half of the year [16][21] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew moderately, with service retail growth outpacing that of goods retail, indicating a shift towards service consumption [21][27] Group 2 - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from extended holiday periods and improved vacation policies, with companies like Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel being key focuses [3] - The hotel market is showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in RevPAR and increasing leisure demand, highlighting companies like Jin Jiang Hotels and Huazhu Group [3] - The duty-free sector is experiencing a boost from new policies, particularly in Hainan, with a focus on high-end consumption recovery [3] Group 3 - The cosmetics industry saw a slight growth of 6.18% in 2025, with domestic brands continuing to gain market share [4][30] - The medical beauty market is projected to reach approximately 366.6 billion in 2025, with a K-shaped consumption differentiation emerging [4][30] - Innovations in core ingredients and the integration of biotechnology are driving brand growth in the cosmetics sector [4][36] Group 4 - The IP derivative market is expanding due to a flourishing supply of IP and commercial operations, with domestic policies expected to further mature the industry ecosystem [5] - Key players in the IP space include Shanghai Film, Light Media, and Pop Mart, with a focus on both domestic and international market expansion [5] Group 5 - The gold and jewelry sector saw a cumulative growth of 12.78% in retail sales from January to December, with a focus on brand premium capabilities and international expansion [6][9] - The rise of "self-wearing" scenarios is driving gold jewelry sales, with brands like Chao Hong Ji and Lao Pu Gold being highlighted for their international strategies [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of a dual-driven ecosystem focused on promoting domestic products and enhancing the livelihoods of ordinary people, particularly the elderly, through innovative business models and community engagement [1][4]. Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - The company, Jiangxin Zhonghua, has established a robust supply chain as a "quality moat" for domestic products, integrating seamlessly with mainstream ERP systems to ensure efficient order and inventory management [2]. - The platform has over 10,000 SKUs across various categories, partnering with more than 2,000 brands, and collaborates with major e-commerce platforms like Taobao, JD, and Pinduoduo to meet diverse consumer needs [2]. Group 2: Entrepreneurial Opportunities - Jiangxin Zhonghua offers a low-cost entrepreneurship model allowing ordinary individuals to become "store managers" without franchise fees or inventory requirements, earning an average commission of over 10% on sales [3]. - The platform has served over 2 million store managers, with more than 100,000 achieving monthly incomes exceeding 10,000 yuan, effectively turning sharing into a profitable venture [3]. Group 3: Operational Performance - The platform boasts impressive operational metrics, including a 98% product turnover rate, a 68% user repurchase rate, and an 80% new customer retention rate, establishing itself as a model of success in the industry [5]. - The company has achieved significant growth milestones, with GMV reaching 5.7 million yuan within a year of establishment, demonstrating the effectiveness of its "domestic products + common prosperity" model [5]. Group 4: Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - Jiangxin Zhonghua actively engages in social responsibility, providing aid during natural disasters and promoting agricultural products through live streaming, thereby supporting local farmers and enhancing community welfare [5]. - The company also creates job opportunities for the elderly, allowing them to contribute to society and maintain their self-worth post-retirement [5].