证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年11月20日 华源晨会精粹 20251120 机械/建材建筑 行业阶段承压，关注四季度资金与开工节奏——25 年建筑三季报综 述：营收与盈利阶段承压，四季度有望回暖。25Q1-3 毛利率短暂承压，现金流边际 改善。板块分化明显，钢结构逆势增长。央企订单稳健增长，支撑板块基本盘。 2025Q1-3 九大建筑央企营收和归母净利润分别占申万建筑板块的 83.45%和 83.99%，继续主导行业表现。剔除央企后，板块营收降幅扩大至-12.37%，但归母 净利润降幅收窄至-5.48%，显示央企对营收形成支撑，但盈利承压更重。估值方面， 央企整体仍处低位区间，龙头 2025 年 PE 约 5 倍、PB 不足 0.5 倍，具备较高安全 边际，盈利修复有望带动估值回升。 风险提示：基建资金投放节奏不及预期；海外业务执行与地缘政治风险；资金回款 与信用风险加剧。 非银 OSL 集团(00863.HK)首次覆盖：新业务不断开拓的数字资产交易和支付综合 平台。货币政策转向、全球监管框架明朗化及机 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that OSL Group (00863) is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 6.7 billion, HKD 11.9 billion, and HKD 18.1 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price set at HKD 21 and an initial "Buy" rating [1] - OSL's revenue composition is primarily driven by digital asset trading income, which accounted for 51% of total revenue in H1 2025, with a trading volume of HKD 68.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 200% [1] - As of the end of H1 2025, OSL's custodial assets reached HKD 5.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50% [1] Group 2 - OSL is recognized as the first compliant digital asset exchange in Hong Kong, having obtained the first digital asset trading platform license issued by the SFC, positioning itself ahead in the compliance process [1] - The company is expected to benefit directly from the ongoing prosperity of the Web 3.0 ecosystem in Hong Kong, being the only platform in the market that offers a full suite of customizable solutions including RFQ and Orderbook [1] - OSL has established deep partnerships with over 50 licensed brokers and banks in Hong Kong, leading in trading volume market share, with its partnered ETFs accounting for approximately 64% of the managed assets in the Hong Kong digital asset spot ETF market as of December 31, 2024 [1] Group 3 - The company's growth is driven by both organic growth and strategic acquisitions, with the new business OSLPay officially launched in April 2025, generating revenue of HKD 55.9 million in H1 2025, which constitutes 29% of total revenue, primarily from Europe [2] - Payment services are expected to become a key focus area for the company, covering deposit and withdrawal channels as well as cross-border payments [2] - OSL has obtained licenses in regions such as Australia, Japan, and Italy, and plans to acquire Banxa in June 2025, which holds over 40 licenses/registrations globally [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that OSL Group is expected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of HKD 6.7 billion, HKD 11.9 billion, and HKD 18.1 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and a target price of HKD 21, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [1] - OSL's revenue composition is primarily driven by digital asset trading income, which accounted for 51% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, achieving a trading volume of HKD 68.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 200% [1] - As of the end of the first half of 2025, OSL's custodial assets reached HKD 5.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50% [1] Group 2 - The company is the first compliant digital asset exchange in Hong Kong, having obtained the first digital asset trading platform license from the SFC, positioning itself favorably in the growing Web 3.0 ecosystem in Hong Kong [1] - OSL is the only platform in the Hong Kong market that offers a full suite of customizable solutions including RFQ and Orderbook, and has established deep partnerships with over 50 licensed brokers and banks in Hong Kong, leading in trading volume market share [1] - As of December 31, 2024, OSL's partnered ETFs accounted for approximately 64% of the managed assets in the Hong Kong digital asset spot ETF market [1] Group 3 - The company is driven by both organic growth and strategic acquisitions, with the new business OSLPay set to launch in April 2025, which generated HKD 55.9 million in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for 29% of total revenue, primarily from Europe [2] - OSL is expanding its global exchange footprint, having obtained licenses in Australia, Japan, and Italy, and plans to acquire Banxa, which holds over 40 licenses/registrations globally [2] - In August 2025, OSL officially received a full license for digital asset business from the Bermuda Monetary Authority and launched a global exchange [2]