证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年11月20日 华源晨会精粹 20251120 机械/建材建筑 行业阶段承压，关注四季度资金与开工节奏——25 年建筑三季报综 述：营收与盈利阶段承压，四季度有望回暖。25Q1-3 毛利率短暂承压，现金流边际 改善。板块分化明显，钢结构逆势增长。央企订单稳健增长，支撑板块基本盘。 2025Q1-3 九大建筑央企营收和归母净利润分别占申万建筑板块的 83.45%和 83.99%，继续主导行业表现。剔除央企后，板块营收降幅扩大至-12.37%，但归母 净利润降幅收窄至-5.48%，显示央企对营收形成支撑，但盈利承压更重。估值方面， 央企整体仍处低位区间，龙头 2025 年 PE 约 5 倍、PB 不足 0.5 倍，具备较高安全 边际，盈利修复有望带动估值回升。 风险提示：基建资金投放节奏不及预期；海外业务执行与地缘政治风险；资金回款 与信用风险加剧。 非银 OSL 集团(00863.HK)首次覆盖：新业务不断开拓的数字资产交易和支付综合 平台。货币政策转向、全球监管框架明朗化及机 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - Increased focus on cyclical infrastructure and international engineering sectors, with significant improvement in funding sources such as special bonds. The physical volume of infrastructure is expected to accelerate, particularly after the Two Sessions, which may catalyze market performance in these sectors [1][14] - The construction industry is showing signs of recovery, with a construction PMI of 52.7%, indicating expansion. The physical workload in infrastructure is improving, supported by favorable weather and project commencement post-Spring Festival [14][20] - The report suggests a focus on three main investment themes: 1) Infrastructure + debt reduction + value enhancement; 2) Potential high elasticity in cyclical engineering; 3) Thematic investment opportunities in low-altitude economy, Belt and Road Initiative, and construction transformation [20][24] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Market Conditions - As of February 27, 2025, the funding availability rate for 13,532 construction sites is 49.1%, showing a year-on-year increase. The construction activity index has risen, indicating a recovery in the construction sector [2][13] - The issuance of new special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 589.11 billion yuan issued, a year-on-year increase of over 180 billion yuan. Infrastructure remains the primary focus, accounting for over 50% of the funding allocation [2][14] Section 2: Market Performance - The construction index rose by 1.25% during the week of February 24-28, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.89%. Notable stock performances included HanJia Design (+32.74%) and Chengbang Co. (+22.71%) [3][17] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment driven by real demand in water conservancy, railways, and urban infrastructure, with expected growth rates of 7.0% and 2.0% for broad and narrow definitions of infrastructure, respectively [20][24] - Recommendations include focusing on companies benefiting from debt reduction policies and those with high exposure to cyclical engineering opportunities, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, and China Communications Construction [20][24]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - Increased focus on cyclical infrastructure and international engineering sectors, with significant improvement in funding sources such as special bonds. The physical volume of infrastructure is expected to accelerate, particularly post the Two Sessions, which may drive market performance in these sectors [1][14] - The construction industry is showing signs of recovery, with a construction PMI of 52.7%, indicating expansion. The physical workload in infrastructure is improving, supported by favorable weather and project commencement [14][20] - The report suggests focusing on central state-owned enterprises in infrastructure and cyclical engineering products, as well as international engineering opportunities due to geopolitical developments [1][14] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Market Conditions - As of February 27, 2025, the funding availability rate for 13,532 construction sites is 49.1%, showing a year-on-year increase. The construction PMI has risen by 3.4 percentage points from the previous month [2][14] - The issuance of new special bonds has reached 589.11 billion yuan, an increase of over 180 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with infrastructure being the primary focus [2][13] Section 2: Market Performance - The construction index rose by 1.25% during the week of February 24-28, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.89%. Notable stock performances included HanJia Design (+32.74%) and Chengbang Co. (+22.71%) [3][17] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Focus on infrastructure, debt reduction, and value enhancement opportunities [20] 2. Attention to cyclical engineering sectors with potential high elasticity [21] 3. Investment opportunities in low-altitude economy, Belt and Road Initiative, and construction transformation [24][25]